Moneyball 2.5

[caulfield12]

The save conversion rate is reportedly down a not insignificant 15% from last year...especially some of the established 9th inning guys (and not so much the 7th and 8th high leverage pitchers).

Most attribute this to the difficulty of some of those guys adjusting to the pitch clock...think the Kimbrel's and Kenley Jansen's on the world.

Historically, VERY SLOW METHODICAL workers.

So Point 1, focus on closers (and high leverage guys in general) who are comfortable working at a much faster pace...(it remains to be determined how this will impact Hendriks in his return, not only the faster pace but his fitness level appears to be at a low point from having so much sedentary time due to the lymphoma recovery period).

One obvious example here is Reynaldo Lopez struggling mightily to adapt to the clock as well as pitching in the 9th.  The counterexample is Joe Kelly adjusting so well in recent weeks.  HIs value is increasing by the day to other MLB teams engaged in playoff races.

 

Point 2, how quickly does the pitcher deliver the ball to the plate?

White Sox have historically been bad to terrible here...as well as holding runners on, in general.

Evidence suggests that the limited number of throws to 1B is not the biggest issue with controlling the running game, it's actually the distraction the pitch clock is causing in terms of losing focus and concentration.

Used to be a 35% percentage throwing out runners was the typical MLB target.  Grandal's at something like 13%.   I'm sure statistics would say the majority are in that 15-25% range this year.

So if you're not going to be spend on the position in the future (Realmuto/Grandal, etc.), then you SIMPLY HAVE TO HAVE a Maldonado/Olivo type who can throw out at least 25-35% of runners if given a shot by their pitchers.  That's one quite obvious way or method  to close the gap with Minny, Cleve and Detroit on the margins.

Point 3, How fast can the catcher get the ball to second and third?  Get the best possible defensive catcher on the market that can hit at least .150 to .175, lol.  Perez and Seby do not seem to qualify here, lol.

Point 4, stamina and endurance of your starting pitchers in terms of making adjustments to the faster pace with the clock.  Lance Lynn seems to be one of the obvious "victims" here...but he also seems to slowly be battling back after the horrific start to the season caused by lack of off season condition and mental preparation for a completely-transformed sport.

Has to be an increased focus on stamina and endurance to work at a much faster pace with the weather changing during the hot/humid summer months.

Giolito's excessive jersey sweat (LOL) and Lynn will be severely tested getting through the heart of the summer in Chicago.

You would have to ask Ethan Katz how much these changes have impacted Kopech (should have less pitches to choose from as a starter, as he currently has a two-pitch repertoire) and Cease, who seems to be in excellent condition compared to the majority of the league and constitutes the biggest mystery.

 

Point 5, if at all possible, you need to have one very capable baserunner for pinch running in on order to control or at least positively impact the late innings, like a Hamilton/Gore/Dyson type who can almost steal bases at will...and who you (organizationally/roster management-wise) have to be less concerned with getting injured compared to your everyday starters.

 

Edited May 18, 2023 by caulfield12