Will AV even be better than…

[South Side Hit Men]

5 minutes ago, Jerry McNertney said:

Vaughn is hitting .237 this year, and in 1189 career at bats he's hitting .251. Those are not the numbers expected from a #3 overall pick. It looks like he's just average offensively and below average defensively. He's still young, so maybe he'll still find "it", but 1189 at bats is no longer a small sample size.

He has a .320 OBP, one of the few Sox players who takes a good number of walks when pitchers aren’t throwing strikes. That’s good for 22nd among 1B, so bottom third, but he’s 25 and will likely settle into the 15th range in power and OBP over the next two years.

Not sure he’ll improve defensively. Burger would be a better candidate based on body size if you gave him six months to work on it over the off-season. 

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

Because they are talented and AV is JAG? I'd give Vaughn more year at the most after '23. 

 

2 hours ago, The Mighty Mite said:

Could very well be but like you I would give him through 2024, still a little early to give up on him.

[Milkman delivers]

I feel like you guys are falling into the same trap with Burger as people did with Vaughn, Cease, etc. He’s probably gonna suck next year and this is just his flash that we get for a season (or two).

[greg775]

AV looks like he has no fun playing baseball. Relax AV and show some of your natural talent. Another semi bust.

[chitownsportsfan]

15 hours ago, Snopek said:

And minus the 6 gold gloves

Good point. It was a bit of a lazy comp to say the least.  Snow was a pretty highly touted prospect that failed to hit much more than average at 1B, but beyond that the similarities with Vaughn aren't really there.

Vaughn for his part looks like a guy that won't hit the median case outlook at the plate or in the field, not great.

[chitownsportsfan]

1 hour ago, Milkman delivers said:

I feel like you guys are falling into the same trap with Burger as people did with Vaughn, Cease, etc. He’s probably gonna suck next year and this is just his flash that we get for a season (or two).

I tend to agree, but at least Jake understand the modern hitting game. We have a lot of guys that are just never going to be successful given their batted ball profile, Jake stands out in that group as a guy that at least has the foundation for success.

[The Mighty Mite]

I’m not worried about his speed, how many fast first basemen are there, certainly Paul Konerko wasn’t. He’s serviceable as a fielder, probably won’t win a Gold Glove but as he matures as a player he will get better, Abreu was no Mike Squires with the glove when he came to the Sox. I really expected AV to be more productive offensively with a higher BA near .300, at least 25 homers, 100 RBI and .850 OPS. Again I say, give him through 2024.

Edited June 20, 2023 by The Mighty Mite

[pcq]

He needs to be an rbi beast to be considered good. That is his thing. 

[The Mighty Mite]

11 hours ago, greg775 said:

AV looks like he has no fun playing baseball. Relax AV and show some of your natural talent. Another semi bust.

Very few of our guys look like they’re having fun, Robert Jr is definitely one that’s looks like he’s bored out of his mind and of course there’s Moncada who always looks like he’s going through torture.

Edited June 20, 2023 by The Mighty Mite

[The Grinder]

Greg Norton

[The Kids Can Play]

21 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

He has a .320 OBP, one of the few Sox players who takes a good number of walks when pitchers aren’t throwing strikes. That’s good for 22nd among 1B, so bottom third, but he’s 25 and will likely settle into the 15th range in power and OBP over the next two years.

Not sure he’ll improve defensively. Burger would be a better candidate based on body size if you gave him six months to work on it over the off-season. 

I do agree with your point that Burger would be better suited at first base than Vaughn. I think it's fair they wait another year and maybe Vaughn makes some big improvements with his power numbers and run production. 

The manner in which so many talented players leave the Sox and go on to other teams and have more success, wouldn't shock me at all, if Vaughn became a more productive player on some other team.

 

Edited June 20, 2023 by The Kids Can Play

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 6/19/2023 at 10:50 AM, FloydBannister1983 said:

And if you opined that Hahn didn’t know what he was doing you were a closet Cubs fan.  Or a meathead that didn’t understand the modern game.

I was fighting with practically everyone on the board his 1st year. People here loved him ,really loved him .

 I thought he could have a breakout year this year. Not yet but there's still the 2nd half to go.

[JoeCredeYes]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I was fighting with practically everyone on the board his 1st year. People here loved him ,really loved him .

 I thought he could have a breakout year this year. Not yet but there's still the 2nd half to go.

I think he can still be a very good, but not elite hitter.  His baseball savant numbers are interesting.  Still hitting the ball hard, he historically has struggled with sliders and mashed fastballs, in 2023 he's got a 7 run value on sliders, but -3 on 4 seamers.  BABIP is the lowest of his career thus far, I still have some hope he can be more consistent. If he's a .250-.270 guy with 25-30 HRs and 70-100 RBI's I'm fine with that, but it would be better if he learned to draw some walks.  Those numbers aren't going to thrill the folks with the lofty expectations of the 3rd overall pick however.

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, JoeCredeYes said:

I think he can still be a very good, but not elite hitter.  His baseball savant numbers are interesting.  Still hitting the ball hard, he historically has struggled with sliders and mashed fastballs, in 2023 he's got a 7 run value on sliders, but -3 on 4 seamers.  BABIP is the lowest of his career thus far, I still have some hope he can be more consistent. If he's a .250-.270 guy with 25-30 HRs and 70-100 RBI's I'm fine with that, but it would be better if he learned to draw some walks.  Those numbers aren't going to thrill the folks with the lofty expectations of the 3rd overall pick however.

With his lack of defensive value and lack of base running value, this kind of stat line leaves him somewhere between the 2022 full season performances of Ty France and Vladimir Guerrero Jr, who hit 20 and 32 HR respectively.

Those guys were worth 2.4 and 2.8 fWAR in 2022, again in order.

Not only is that kinda disappointing for the #3 pick...he's not going to be cheap any more while doing that.  Ty France is arb-1 this year and is making $4.1 million, so if Vaughn follows roughly that number, he's up to $4 million next year and maybe $8 million and $11 million the following years. That's tolerable at best performance for that money at that position, but nothing all that impressive. And if he doesn't get to that performance, and stays where he is now...you might start talking about non tendering him in that final year.

[Greg Hibbard]

4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

With his lack of defensive value and lack of base running value, this kind of stat line leaves him somewhere between the 2022 full season performances of Ty France and Vladimir Guerrero Jr, who hit 20 and 32 HR respectively.

Those guys were worth 2.4 and 2.8 fWAR in 2022, again in order.

Not only is that kinda disappointing for the #3 pick...he's not going to be cheap any more while doing that.  Ty France is arb-1 this year and is making $4.1 million, so if Vaughn follows roughly that number, he's up to $4 million next year and maybe $8 million and $11 million the following years. That's tolerable at best performance for that money at that position, but nothing all that impressive. And if he doesn't get to that performance, and stays where he is now...you might start talking about non tendering him in that final year.

But then you consider that a 2.8 WAR player is almost the ideal player for this organization. Good enough to stick around for 6 years at the minimum, not good enough to not take a big extension that guarantees them 50 million over 4 years or something. So maybe Vaughn at #3 is an exactly perfect textbook White Sox culture pick. 

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, Greg Hibbard said:

But then you consider that a 2.8 WAR player is almost the ideal player for this organization. Good enough to stick around for 6 years at the minimum, not good enough to not take a big extension that guarantees them 50 million over 4 years or something. So maybe Vaughn at #3 is an exactly perfect textbook White Sox culture pick. 

They gave Benintendi a lot more money and more years despite a cumulative 3.1 fWAR of production for 2 1/2 seasons from 2019-2021. 

Melky Cabrera, Mazara, Pollock, Eaton second time around...we almost always misread previous track records. 

[Boopa1219]

Andrew Vaughn was the third overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft, instead of him the Sox could’ve had CJ Abrams, Riley Greene, Corbin Carroll, or Anthony Volpe.

Another terrible pick for the Sox. And a warning that you should never use a first round pick on a R/R first base only, college player. 

[TheFutureIsNear]

It’s Vaughn and literally every other player in the organization, besides maybe Cease and Gio. Every other player in this organization has either not met expectations or has gotten worse upon arrival. I agree Vaughn’s ceiling is limited, but wouldn’t shock me to see him be an above average starter once he leaves. 
It’s more than time to admit that this organization is rotten to its core and it’s not the individual players. I wish I knew the exact reason behind it, but clearly there’s a major problem that prevents players from succeeding here.

[GreenSox]

Vaughn should end up being an   .850 OPS guy, with  20-25 homers.
Not elite,  but solid.

[SCCWS]

On 6/19/2023 at 3:08 PM, Jerry McNertney said:

Vaughn is hitting .237 this year, and in 1189 career at bats he's hitting .251. Those are not the numbers expected from a #3 overall pick. It looks like he's just average offensively and below average defensively. He's still young, so maybe he'll still find "it", but 1189 at bats is no longer a small sample size.

I don't think he will ever be average or better defensively.  That is a concern since he is closer to DH than even being a 1B.  I keep hoping the offense will go from .237 to . 290 ish but that is a long jump at this stage.

[T R U]

The roster construction of this team is just baffling. Its littered with plodding DH's. I know its been beaten to death, but my god how can multiple people in this organization see this come together and think "Yep, this is going to be a championship caliber club."

Vaughn, Eloy, Burger, Sheets, Grandal.. these guys would need to hit .300 with 35+ HR's to return value to the roster because they cant run, they cant play defense, they offer nothing outside of the bat. All 5 of these guys are in the top 9 for at bats on this team. Over 50% of our lineup on a given night are statues that negatively impact the team if they aren't hitting HR's in bunches.

The other part of our lineup is Robert and DFA candidates or disappointments.

Its easy to see why this team is as bad as they have been. They were constructed that way.

[Dam8610]

On 6/19/2023 at 10:12 AM, SonofaRoache said:

Remember when AV was a star bat? I don't either, but people here sure as hell made him out to be one. For all of our rebuild pain, we were rewarded with Madrigal-Kimbrel-Pollock and Vaughn.

Let that sink in. 

The rebuild never stopped, they just have a bigger core to try to get value out of now. Hopefully Hahn isn't the one trying to extract the value from it.

Edited June 23, 2023 by Dam8610