White Sox’ trade-deadline decisions will depend on ability to compete in playoffs, not just for AL Central crown

[Balta1701]

44 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Don't forget in 1970 the White Sox won 56 games...in 1971 they won 79 games. +23

In 1989 the Sox won 69 games...in 1990 they won 94 games. +25

I think 1989 to 1990 is a great example of a team bringing up a whole bunch of prospects. Jack McDowell, Alex Fernandez, Robin Ventura, and some football player from Auburn all made their debuts right there.

The 2024 White Sox don't have this coming! This system is garbage. So, to "reach their goals for 2024 and 2025", they get at the most a tiny bit of help from their system, maybe even none at all given that their top prospect has a back injury. 

[Lip Man 1]

24 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I think 1989 to 1990 is a great example of a team bringing up a whole bunch of prospects. Jack McDowell, Alex Fernandez, Robin Ventura, and some football player from Auburn all made their debuts right there.

The 2024 White Sox don't have this coming! This system is garbage. So, to "reach their goals for 2024 and 2025", they get at the most a tiny bit of help from their system, maybe even none at all given that their top prospect has a back injury. 

The system basically is going to supply very little if anything. They won't commit to spending big money to bring in a bunch of free agents.

Unless ownership changes the chances of success in the next few years is very small.  

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Lip Man 1 said:

The system basically is going to supply very little if anything. They won't commit to spending big money to bring in a bunch of free agents.

Unless ownership changes the chances of success in the next few years is very small.  

That's exactly my question. Is there anyone who successfully pulled this off, retooling from really bad to really good without help from a system and without expanding their budget? 

[chitownsportsfan]

15 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

That's exactly my question. Is there anyone who successfully pulled this off, retooling from really bad to really good without help from a system and without expanding their budget? 

As I posted the other day: Burger and Robert have combined for 3.5 fWAR, the rest of the team -.5 fWAR. We have a bottom 1/2 farm system, our best piece is currently just coming back from a significant oblique injury and we also have several bad contracts on the MLB books after giving premature extensions.

There's no there there! We're boned.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 6/20/2023 at 6:56 AM, SCCWS said:

I agree with Jimmy though that making the playoffs allows teams to have a new chance of making a run. Different sport, but we just saw Miami going to the Finals as an 8 seed with several key players injured. 

Right plus it also puts more money in JR's coffers so a complete tear down money saving direction may not be as necessary.

The real tricky part is how do u make the playoff as bad as the Sox are right now while still trading away the 1 year assets ?

No depth to starting pitching so who take Gio's place in the rotation who isn't way worse ?

The offense is bad and removing Grandal takes away another LH bat and OBP guy, although not much for walks this year but higher batting average than usual.

Middleton has helped solidify the BP but BP arms will be in demand and Sox might gut the pen also.

Anyway they aren't making the playoffs  but as usual the Sox will delay the inevitable as long as possible and inevitably make poor decisions. Th right decisions isn't that clear but whichever road they choose will be the wrong one.

Hahn has the magic touch for mediocrity and less.

[T R U]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

That's exactly my question. Is there anyone who successfully pulled this off, retooling from really bad to really good without help from a system and without expanding their budget? 

I think the answer to your question is no, there is no one.

[flavum]

5 behind the Guardians 

6 behind the Twins 

Sell

[Dan Pasqua]

53 minutes ago, flavum said:

5 behind the Guardians 

6 behind the Twins 

Sell

If we traded away talent for prospects then we would be left with no talent and just prospects.  And of course us. 

[Balta1701]

3 hours ago, Dan Pasqua said:

If we traded away talent for prospects then we would be left with no talent and just prospects.  And of course us. 

So your opinion is that the White Sox have a ton of talent right now?

[Dick Allen]

The White Sox can’t be clueless that they have a real bad team. The record sucks. They seem content not to get swept. The season is almost half over and they have had very few games that they won pretty easily.

[greg775]

This type of talk is disgusting to me as a fan. Playoffs? Cmon. This team reeks. We need a video of Mora yelling bout 'playoffs.

Our fave team is seriously flawed. It's not a playoff team even in the Central. There's no way a person with a functioning brain can seriously entertain playoffs. Cmon.

[caulfield12]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CLE/2023.s HTML

 

The Cleveland Guardians used 12 different starters last year...and 11 already in less than half a season in 2023. 

Imagine how ugly the results would be right now if the White Sox were missing two starters... let alone trading Gio and/or Lynn? 

They would truly be looking at 66-74 wins in that scenario. 

In what's supposed to be years 4-5 to basically complete their competitive window. 

Complete and utter failure. 

[Balta1701]

53 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The White Sox can’t be clueless that they have a real bad team. The record sucks. They seem content not to get swept. The season is almost half over and they have had very few games that they won pretty easily.

This GM has such a consistent historic record of f***ing up this exact decision that I will believe it when I see it.

2015, the team is 10 games below .500 in June and 11 games back in the division. A winning streak brings them to 5 under by early July and Rick Hahn declares “if we keep playing like this we’ll be right there at the end”. He sells no deadline pieces, including Samardzija who was an upcoming free agent. They finish in 4th place, 10 games under .500 and 19 back in the division. 

They don’t learn their lesson one bit, double down on that roster being one player away with Frazier the next offseason.

When that team hit on a huge losing skid in May, they double down again by trading for Shields. They finally at the deadline basically stand pat, I think they sent one lefty reliever out. Oh and they draft a closer in the first round because maybe he can help the 2016 bullpen.

2022 they look hopeless but they’re bouncing between 3 and 6 games back in the division in July. If they don’t clear money it could seriously hurt 2023s roster. They add a lefty reliever at the deadline and finish 11 games back.

Between Hahn’s foolishness and stubbornness, and maybe his sycophantic unwillingness to tell Reinsdorf bad news, he has stood firm in worse, more difficult positions than this one. A couple wins and he might be 4 games back again, even while still in fourth place. They have a long and consistent record of burying their heads in sand and declaring everything is fine In exactly this situation.

So, I Will believe they will make a correct decision when they have made it, not before.

[T R U]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

This GM has such a consistent historic record of f***ing up this exact decision that I will believe it when I see it.

2015, the team is 10 games below .500 in June and 11 games back in the division. A winning streak brings them to 5 under by early July and Rick Hahn declares “if we keep playing like this we’ll be right there at the end”. He sells no deadline pieces, including Samardzija who was an upcoming free agent. They finish in 4th place, 10 games under .500 and 19 back in the division. 

They don’t learn their lesson one bit, double down on that roster being one player away with Frazier the next offseason.

When that team hit on a huge losing skid in May, they double down again by trading for Shields. They finally at the deadline basically stand pat, I think they sent one lefty reliever out. Oh and they draft a closer in the first round because maybe he can help the 2016 bullpen.

2022 they look hopeless but they’re bouncing between 3 and 6 games back in the division in July. If they don’t clear money it could seriously hurt 2023s roster. They add a lefty reliever at the deadline and finish 11 games back.

Between Hahn’s foolishness and stubbornness, and maybe his sycophantic unwillingness to tell Reinsdorf bad news, he has stood firm in worse, more difficult positions than this one. A couple wins and he might be 4 games back again, even while still in fourth place. They have a long and consistent record of burying their heads in sand and declaring everything is fine In exactly this situation.

So, I Will believe they will make a correct decision when they have made it, not before.

There’s virtually no chance they sell off if they stick in the 5 games back range. They will either stand pat or waste assets. It’s what they do. 

[FloydBannister1983]

9 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Don't forget in 1970 the White Sox won 56 games...in 1971 they won 79 games. +23

In 1989 the Sox won 69 games...in 1990 they won 94 games. +25

Yeah but I would say 2022 is more analogous to the 1985 team that had a respectable season and then headed into a disastrous four year stretch.

[GreenSox]

On 6/20/2023 at 11:25 PM, Tony said:

Giolito will be gone. They’ll buy out Lynn for $1 mil. That leaves you with Cease, Kopech and Clevinger Then what? What free agent pitcher are they spending 100+ million on, and what historical data tells you they will? 

They’ll have a large hole at catcher and the FA market isn’t a good one.

This team was built to compete for 4 seasons, 2020-2023. Per usual, they have one of the worst farm systems in baseball. The reinforcements aren’t coming from the farm. I know you are on some crusade to tell Soxtalk it’s boring to just be negative, but objectively speaking, there is no evidence to tell us 2024 will be any better than 2023 for the Sox. More likely will be worse. 
 

I think  that's what's likely to happen. But is it really inevitable if the Sox get serious and try to leverage assets?

Could they get Pfaadt from Az for Giolito? He had a bad "cup of  coffee" which might lower his price; or maybe for Giolito  and Graveman? And/or one of Arizona's many OF prospects?
I just wish they'd take this upcoming trade season seriously.

Edited June 23, 2023 by GreenSox

[The Kids Can Play]

21 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

That's exactly my question. Is there anyone who successfully pulled this off, retooling from really bad to really good without help from a system and without expanding their budget? 

I think this might be the best example with the Baltimore Orioles over the last four years:

Year	W-L	W-L Rank	Farm System Rank	Payroll Dollars	Payroll Rank
2023	45-28	5	1	67.7 Million	29
2022	83-79	15	1	44.8 Million	30
2021	52-110	30	5	42.4 Million	30
2020	25-35	25	13	23.4 Million	30

[Capn12]

14 minutes ago, The Kids Can Play said:

I think this might be the best example with the Baltimore Orioles over the last four years:

Year	W-L	W-L Rank	Farm System Rank	Payroll Dollars	Payroll Rank
2023	45-28	5	1	67.7 Million	29
2022	83-79	15	1	44.8 Million	30
2021	52-110	30	5	42.4 Million	30
2020	25-35	25	13	23.4 Million	30

Could you imagine having the #1 farm system? Hell....I'd take top 10....what a pipe dream, as a Sox fan.

[The Kids Can Play]

14 minutes ago, Capn12 said:

Could you imagine having the #1 farm system? Hell....I'd take top 10....what a pipe dream, as a Sox fan.

You're right it's a pipe dream as a Sox fan, but only because of Jerry. However under some other future rich billionaire owner I could see it happening. The Orioles just went out and got one of the young bright executives in Mike Elias from Houston who I wrote and documented about in a separate post. 

These young smart modern day executives are out there. We just have to have an owner who wants to go recruit them away from the successful organizations who know how to win and build a farm system like the Rays, Dodgers, Astros, etc. 

[4uckOffCommieScum]

I’d hate to see the Sox win the division on 79 wins personally. A .421 winning percentage along with a roster stacked with low effort and unsound key players says sell all the way. Unfortunately some prime trade candidates haven’t been cooperating with their barrel bottom performances this year. Hard to see a way out of the downward spiral

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Capn12 said:

Could you imagine having the #1 farm system? Hell....I'd take top 10....what a pipe dream, as a Sox fan.

Yes, I can imagine the White Sox having the #1 farm system. 

[T R U]

3 hours ago, The Kids Can Play said:

I think this might be the best example with the Baltimore Orioles over the last four years:

Year	W-L	W-L Rank	Farm System Rank	Payroll Dollars	Payroll Rank
2023	45-28	5	1	67.7 Million	29
2022	83-79	15	1	44.8 Million	30
2021	52-110	30	5	42.4 Million	30
2020	25-35	25	13	23.4 Million	30

Its actually a horrible example, because the Orioles have done this with the help of an excellent and deep farm system.

The question posed was has anyone turned it around WITHOUT the help of the farm or spending huge FA dollars.

The best example would be the 2024 White Sox winning 90+ games and winning the division as our farm system sucks and we know we wont be spending big in free agency. I think that is what he was looking for.

[Capn12]

2 hours ago, FourEyesShottenhoffer said:

I’d hate to see the Sox win the division on 79 wins personally. A .421 winning percentage along with a roster stacked with low effort and unsound key players says sell all the way. Unfortunately some prime trade candidates haven’t been cooperating with their barrel bottom performances this year. Hard to see a way out of the downward spiral

JR's dream, right there.

[Capn12]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Yes, I can imagine the White Sox having the #1 farm system. 

Imaginary plane is the only plane this will ever be the case, for sure.

[Balta1701]

9 minutes ago, Capn12 said:

Imaginary plane is the only plane this will ever be the case, for sure.

Naw, at one point the White Sox had Cease, Eloy, Kopech, Giolito, Moncada, Lopez, Dunning, Narvaez, Engel, and Robert all in their system within one year. That's several all stars already, and about 10 guys who have had at least decent single years. Imagine the depth it takes to pull of 10 decent big leaguers in your system at one time, that's a legitimate top system.

Take all that youth, use it intelligently, pair it with some draft picks over the next few years, and you have plenty of room to go sign a big contract or two that should push you into the playoffs. Even if none of them became all stars, 10 "decent big leaguers who don't cost much" is and should have been a huge advantage.