Jerksticks Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 41 minutes ago, The Beast said: I don’t know. I can’t write off seasons that haven’t been played yet and offseason that haven’t happened yet. Fair. The only thing I think can work is they need to become the Rays in one major way: A guy gets to be 1.5-2 years from the end of his rookie deal, trade him no matter what. Always restocking. No extensions. Keep them hungry and then trade them. No exceptions. Then spend the 175M per year on major free agents. But they won’t do that. i still can’t believe they canned Ricky and brought in TLR. Gnight dudes. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 7 hours ago, bmags said: I think my bet would be that at the end of the year the winner of the ALC ends up with a normal, respectable record. 88 wins or so. probably CLE finding some otherworldly pitching, hotter hitting, and a weak ass division to beat up on. Like usual. I think it's highly unlikely we send a division winner with only 81-83 wins. That’s all well and good, but I’ll bet you the winner of the AL Central does very little in the playoffs, so the difference between 81 wins and 88 wins means…nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 7 hours ago, baseballgalaly said: Robert signed 8 years when he came up. He has 4.5 years left on that deal. He's about at max value rn. I'd wait until this winter for Cease and maybe hang on to Kopech until the 2024 TDL when he's more established. I think Cease will pitch better to close out the year and have the 2nd best stats of his career. I agree with you on Robert and Kopech. If Cease is hot and he has been much better I think I sell him at deadline and get a haul. Gio and Timmy have to go - move Grandal (not that they will get a ton) and well I’d clear Moncada and find a change of scenery person just cause I am done with him (and I know if he gets to a good org he will do just fine). Hold Eloy - but if he was mashing I could opt to move him but if not - keep him around and hold off selling him. Trade the pen - Kelly / Gravermam / Hendricks. The team will absolutely suck - cause they have zero pitching depth. Lineup just let Vaughn, Robert, Eloy and Burger get tons of at bats (plus Benitendi cause I presume they will keep him but I’d be fine trading him id he preferred it (not getting anything really for him). Let Sosa and whomever else try to show they can do anything and maybe try to take a stab at some other teams Aaa / Aaaa guys and see if any of them can actually turn into something decent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 8 hours ago, Snopek said: They seem to zero in on like the 90th percentile outcome of each player and plan around that. I understand the importance of identifying the ceilings of players, but I get a sense that they rely on them reaching those ceilings. Hence the no depth, no backup plans, etc. Instead all you have to do is both pan out and stay healthy. And since there's technically no way to know that it won't happen, they get to keep believing it will. Great fun. 100 percent. And none of this would have been an issue if they did anything and got any real value from their own draft picks since they made all the trades. But they have gotten s%*# from internal draft picks and the farm. Literally s%*# - Burger and Vaughn are it and I wouldn’t say that is much. No pitching - no nothing. It’s pathetic. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 1 hour ago, The Beast said: I don’t know. I can’t write off seasons that haven’t been played yet and offseason that haven’t happened yet. Giolito will be gone. They’ll buy out Lynn for $1 mil. That leaves you with Cease, Kopech and Clevinger Then what? What free agent pitcher are they spending 100+ million on, and what historical data tells you they will? They’ll have a large hole at catcher and the FA market isn’t a good one. This team was built to compete for 4 seasons, 2020-2023. Per usual, they have one of the worst farm systems in baseball. The reinforcements aren’t coming from the farm. I know you are on some crusade to tell Soxtalk it’s boring to just be negative, but objectively speaking, there is no evidence to tell us 2024 will be any better than 2023 for the Sox. More likely will be worse. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chisoxfn Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, Tony said: Giolito will be gone. They’ll buy out Lynn for $1 mil. That leaves you with Cease, Kopech and Clevinger Then what? What free agent pitcher are they spending 100+ million on, and what historical data tells you they will? They’ll have a large hole at catcher and the FA market isn’t a good one. This team was built to compete for 4 seasons, 2020-2023. Per usual, they have one of the worst farm systems in baseball. The reinforcements aren’t coming from the farm. I know you are on some crusade to tell Soxtalk it’s boring to just be negative, but objectively speaking, there is no evidence to tell us 2024 will be any better than 2023 for the Sox. More likely will be worse. My only bright side is I do think they have players that actually have value. Gio they should move now - don’t risk and injury or a slump, move on him early and get max value (say Dbacks or Reds) and like to do same with Kelly cause he’s a walking injury but I feel like relievers are more valuable as you get closer to deadline - same with Graverman but I still say with a lot of teams still in it - be an early seller. Cease has been much more like last year in past 5 starts (stroking out tons of guys - needs to pitch deeper though - but stuff has been elite). I’d love to keep him but it ain’t reality - his value is still really high and yeah, maybe you get more next year if he’s pitching like last year - but I think with him, you know he’s walking next year and current version would still be one of very best arms on market - so capitalize on that and make your move (vs risk an injury and you get nothing). The above should get you 5 good chips - maybe one elite prospect and two other very good prospects (I think Cease is worth an elite prospect and a very good one plus some lower level guys or maybe some raw relief type arms or like a bat with no position type). Gio gets you maybe one very good and another borderline top 100 type? Graverman gets you one or two decent prospects - maybe more raw? TA - Not sure what you get for him now? Is this his last year or do we have one more? If one more I honestly think I keep him and hope you get a bounce back cause man we would be trading him at such a low. Clearly hurt or just miserable. I probably hold Hendricks and hope he recovers and is himself 2nd half of this year or at very least has good first half next year and he is top closer at next deadline. Or…just move guys in contract years and offer 10yrs 600M to ohtani. Haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Side Hit Men Posted June 21, 2023 Author Share Posted June 21, 2023 23 minutes ago, Tony said: Giolito will be gone. They’ll buy out Lynn for $1 mil. That leaves you with Cease, Kopech and Clevinger Then what? What free agent pitcher are they spending 100+ million on, and what historical data tells you they will? They’ll have a large hole at catcher and the FA market isn’t a good one. This team was built to compete for 4 seasons, 2020-2023. Per usual, they have one of the worst farm systems in baseball. The reinforcements aren’t coming from the farm. I know you are on some crusade to tell Soxtalk it’s boring to just be negative, but objectively speaking, there is no evidence to tell us 2024 will be any better than 2023 for the Sox. More likely will be worse. It's a mutual option on Clevinger and he gets a better deal if he is decent and healthy, or Sox pay $4M for him to leave as a sunk cost. So Cease, Kopech, and perhaps Lynn is what 2024 is looking like at this point internally. I can Hahn signing Lynn on a 1 or 2 year. $10M is per year deal if he wants to continue and the Sox aren't doing an under $100M payroll tear down. If they are able to execute what they've said about Crochet, then perhaps he can give you 100-125 innings, but it keeps looking more and more as though bullpen is the most likely scenario. This is why I think they should have claimed Plesac and a few more guys like him, with lower 2024 salaries so if you add 4-5 guys beyond Cease and Kopech and have a decent plus 2B, RF and C somehow, they can say they are trying in 2024. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCCWS Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 9 hours ago, Chisoxfn said: My only bright side is I do think they have players that actually have value. Gio they should move now - don’t risk and injury or a slump, move on him early and get max value (say Dbacks or Reds) and like to do same with Kelly cause he’s a walking injury but I feel like relievers are more valuable as you get closer to deadline - same with Graverman but I still say with a lot of teams still in it - be an early seller. Cease has been much more like last year in past 5 starts (stroking out tons of guys - needs to pitch deeper though - but stuff has been elite). I’d love to keep him but it ain’t reality - his value is still really high and yeah, maybe you get more next year if he’s pitching like last year - but I think with him, you know he’s walking next year and current version would still be one of very best arms on market - so capitalize on that and make your move (vs risk an injury and you get nothing). The above should get you 5 good chips - maybe one elite prospect and two other very good prospects (I think Cease is worth an elite prospect and a very good one plus some lower level guys or maybe some raw relief type arms or like a bat with no position type). Gio gets you maybe one very good and another borderline top 100 type? Graverman gets you one or two decent prospects - maybe more raw? TA - Not sure what you get for him now? Is this his last year or do we have one more? If one more I honestly think I keep him and hope you get a bounce back cause man we would be trading him at such a low. Clearly hurt or just miserable. I probably hold Hendricks and hope he recovers and is himself 2nd half of this year or at very least has good first half next year and he is top closer at next deadline. Or…just move guys in contract years and offer 10yrs 600M to ohtani. Haha. I don't think the Front Office will move Cease. They did the "redo' with Sale and company and here we are again. Just my opinion, but I think the roster will make a few "big " moves like Gio and TA so Hahn/Williams look like they are making major moves. But it may be just shuffling the deck around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FloydBannister1983 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 10 hours ago, Chisoxfn said: My only bright side is I do think they have players that actually have value. Gio they should move now - don’t risk and injury or a slump, move on him early and get max value (say Dbacks or Reds) and like to do same with Kelly cause he’s a walking injury but I feel like relievers are more valuable as you get closer to deadline - same with Graverman but I still say with a lot of teams still in it - be an early seller. Cease has been much more like last year in past 5 starts (stroking out tons of guys - needs to pitch deeper though - but stuff has been elite). I’d love to keep him but it ain’t reality - his value is still really high and yeah, maybe you get more next year if he’s pitching like last year - but I think with him, you know he’s walking next year and current version would still be one of very best arms on market - so capitalize on that and make your move (vs risk an injury and you get nothing). The above should get you 5 good chips - maybe one elite prospect and two other very good prospects (I think Cease is worth an elite prospect and a very good one plus some lower level guys or maybe some raw relief type arms or like a bat with no position type). Gio gets you maybe one very good and another borderline top 100 type? Graverman gets you one or two decent prospects - maybe more raw? TA - Not sure what you get for him now? Is this his last year or do we have one more? If one more I honestly think I keep him and hope you get a bounce back cause man we would be trading him at such a low. Clearly hurt or just miserable. I probably hold Hendricks and hope he recovers and is himself 2nd half of this year or at very least has good first half next year and he is top closer at next deadline. Or…just move guys in contract years and offer 10yrs 600M to ohtani. Haha. I don’t think Giolito and Cease bring more of a return than Sale and Quintana. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 https://www.yahoo.com/news/minor-league-player-hit-514-135201216.html Jo Adell would be a legit buy lower trade candidate. Still a ton of bust potential but they need to take some chances with these upcoming trades. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOFHurt35 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 On 6/20/2023 at 2:31 PM, Squirmin' for Yermin said: It makes no sense to not sell. It makes all the sense to sell, but only if there were different people in charge of the selling and developing those pieces acquired. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 6 hours ago, caulfield12 said: https://www.yahoo.com/news/minor-league-player-hit-514-135201216.html Jo Adell would be a legit buy lower trade candidate. Still a ton of bust potential but they need to take some chances with these upcoming trades. No doubt, just cycle through some guys see if you can find any winners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Side Hit Men Posted June 21, 2023 Author Share Posted June 21, 2023 47 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said: No doubt, just cycle through some guys see if you can find any winners. Yes, and have a little patience and make sure you have proper coverage before DFAing guys you can work with on the side like Diekman pitching decent (but not great see FIP) in Tampa. Sox: ERA 7.94 (bad); FIP 5.93 (bad luck) TB: 2.77 (solid); FIP 4.43 (better luck). Same deal with Lance Lynn: ERA: 6.51 (bad) vs. FIP 4.95 (bad luck). Thought Colome was toast, ok with that DFA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Hurtin Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 9 hours ago, SCCWS said: I don't think the Front Office will move Cease. They did the "redo' with Sale and company and here we are again. Just my opinion, but I think the roster will make a few "big " moves like Gio and TA so Hahn/Williams look like they are making major moves. But it may be just shuffling the deck around. There is zero chance he "gets the bag" from the White Sox, so tick tock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 21 minutes ago, Big Hurtin said: There is zero chance he "gets the bag" from the White Sox, so tick tock. Not to mention they're even more wary of giving pitchers with previous TJS histories extensions... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 When is the last time that a team went from bottom-4 in either league to being a title contender without: Taking a serious step back and developing a top 10-ish system, or A big increase in free agency spending? Genuinely curious if anyone has any good examples of pulling this off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: When is the last time that a team went from bottom-4 in either league to being a title contender without: Taking a serious step back and developing a top 10-ish system, or A big increase in free agency spending? Genuinely curious if anyone has any good examples of pulling this off. +35 - 1998–99 Diamondbacks (from 65 wins to 100 in their second MLB season) +33 - 1935–36 Boston Braves (from 38 wins in Babe Ruth’s last season to 71) +33 - 1945–46 Boston Red Sox (from 71 wins to 104 - seems like they might have been missing an important player in 1945, Ted somebody. Of course the whole league was different in 1946 as the “wartime players” left the game and the likes of Williams and DiMaggio returned.) +33 - 1988–89 Baltimore Orioles (from 54 wins and an 0–21 start to 87 wins) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: +35 - 1998–99 Diamondbacks (from 65 wins to 100 in their second MLB season) +33 - 1935–36 Boston Braves (from 38 wins in Babe Ruth’s last season to 71) +33 - 1945–46 Boston Red Sox (from 71 wins to 104 - seems like they might have been missing an important player in 1945, Ted somebody. Of course the whole league was different in 1946 as the “wartime players” left the game and the likes of Williams and DiMaggio returned.) +33 - 1988–89 Baltimore Orioles (from 54 wins and an 0–21 start to 87 wins) What were their minor league systems ranked in the years before this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Balta1701 said: What were their minor league systems ranked in the years before this? Pretty sure Baseball America didn't exist until the early 1980's... But the answer seems to partially be steroids. Edited June 22, 2023 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Pretty sure Baseball America didn't exist until the early 1980's... But the answer seems to partially be steroids. So you didn't actually answer my question then, you just picked random teams that improved based on some criterion you invented? I don't dispute that teams can go from bad to good in a single season. I wanted to know if anyone had any examples of it happening without the benefit of either an infusion of prospects from a solid system or an infusion of high priced free agents, which is what Rick Hahn will have to do this offseason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: So you didn't actually answer my question then, you just picked random teams that improved based on some criterion you invented? I don't dispute that teams can go from bad to good in a single season. I wanted to know if anyone had any examples of it happening without the benefit of either an infusion of prospects from a solid system or an infusion of high priced free agents, which is what Rick Hahn will have to do this offseason. No those were the biggest one year improvements in baseball history. There's not going to be a clear answer because you haven't previsely defined solid system or high priced free agents. The 1997 and 2003 Marlins tend to fit one of each, for example. But you should specify Top 5 Baseball America farm system or Top 10 and free agent spending in inflation adjusted dollars with a base year at least. Let's say the equivalent of at least $150 million in future contracts for one offseason? $500 million in new spending over 3? It's way too vague. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 The ONLY thing that would work is bringing in Garcia, Contreras and all those 9-10 buy low free agents and Bobby Jenks after dumping three big salaries like the 2004-05 cycle. Sox simply don't have the prospects to dream of pulling off the equivalent of a Freddy Garcia trade unless it's moving core pieces off the current roster that would cripple the depth. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Train to 35th Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Boy's this organization sucks, and IMO will never get better. 2005 was a lucky flash-in-the-pan season and is unlikely to happen again with the current management group. I kept to my word this year and have not been to a home game this season after cancelling my 3 seat 20-game plan that I had since the beginning of the rebuild. I visited Yankee stadium instead this year and was lucky enough to see the Tuesday night game thru the smoke before Wednesday game was cancelled. What a great experience, there were almost 40,000 at the game yet no lines for bathrooms, beer or concessions. The people in our section and at the game were very friendly, all in all a great time especially since the Sox won. This Sox team is in decline, our scouting, training, player development, and overall management suck, even our minor league SS Colson has been injured most of the year. I also think it's time to stop giving Marco Paddy credit for the Cuban talent he has brought up. Others teams have had more success than the Sox in that regard, think Randy Arozarena, Yuli Gurriel, Yordan Alvarez, Yandy Diaz, Aldo's Garcia....the list goes on over 40 players and yet not many Sox players on it that are actually reliable except for ex-sox Jose. I still check in here from time to time and will start watching most games, but the days of me watching every inning of bad baseball is over. Take care my friends and pray for another lucky 2005 but just don't count on it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 13 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: No those were the biggest one year improvements in baseball history. There's not going to be a clear answer because you haven't previsely defined solid system or high priced free agents. The 1997 and 2003 Marlins tend to fit one of each, for example. But you should specify Top 5 Baseball America farm system or Top 10 and free agent spending in inflation adjusted dollars with a base year at least. Let's say the equivalent of at least $150 million in future contracts for one offseason? $500 million in new spending over 3? It's way too vague. I did specify a top 10 system. I'm willing to be flexible here if you can give me an actual answer, I'd love to know if it has actually happened that a team has gone from bottom-4 in the league to on the top, without relying on either of these things. The 1996 marlins were 80-82, so definitely not bottom of the league. They then signed Alex Fernandez, Bobby Bonilla, and Moises Alou, who were added to Sheffield and Kevin Brown who was signed to a huge deal the year before. They're clearly a team that won by adding free agents. The 2002 Marlins had 4 top 100 prospects, including #1 overall prospect Josh Beckett. Certainly a strong system compared to what the White Sox have now. Show me one. Stop giving me random teams that improved, do it without a strong system and without a free agent binge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lip Man 1 Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 (edited) Don't forget in 1970 the White Sox won 56 games...in 1971 they won 79 games. +23 In 1989 the Sox won 69 games...in 1990 they won 94 games. +25 Edited June 22, 2023 by Lip Man 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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