Garfein's Latest Podcast...

[greg775]

Just now, Rocky said:

If he were a good manager, he'd had a job managing.  Period. 

The game has evolved, and Ozzie hasn't.  

I disagree. Ozzie is kind of Chicago or nothing. Other cities don't get him. He doesn't fit in other cities. Like him or not, Ozzie is Mr .White Sox. He was a joyful player for the Sox for many years. You never hear about him loafing as a player. His players seemed to like him too.

Sox used to be a likeable team when he was skipper. I wonder why.

[T R U]

11 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I don't know if it was a great return in all the trades when our team has been pathetic following the trades.

In hindsight, that would be correct. My point was, he didn't move those players for underwhelming returns. The players not developing or flaming out is a different story.

I am not worried about Rick Hahn giving away Lucas Giolito is what I am trying to say. The return will and should be nice.

[Balta1701]

13 minutes ago, nrockway said:

Sabermetrics is fine but that’s an organizational priority, what does it have to do specifically with the manager besides listening to advice on when to pitch hit, batting order etc. the minor league development people need to know this stuff more. This is a Hahn issue which is confusing because he’s an Ivy League mba, those dummies love this stuff. leads me to think it’s over his head.

The big league team manager needs to be a leader and get the most out of his players. And needs to be bilingual. Some sabermetrics nerd who learned a few things on excel isn’t that guy. Anyone on this board could do that job, minor statistical analysis that people probably learned their first semester of college. Pedro is none of these things besides ostensibly bilingual, but boy was it foolish to think a Cuban-American would fit into the Cuban thing the Sox having going on and be able to inspire moncada, Robert etc to play hard. They’re gonna blow that connection which is about the only thing this team has going for it over other franchises. 

There are things about the White Sox that remain very "Anti-Sabermetrics". Some of the big numbers that they've made us pay attention to over the last few years include:

Swinging outside of the Strike Zone
Walk Rate
Ground Ball Rate/Launch Angle

The White Sox are consistently terrible on all of these, perhaps the worst in the league since measurements began on Launch Angle! What's more, they're actually worse this year with new hitting coaches than last year, they took what Sabermetrics was saying "You're doing wrong" and said "nuh uh, we're gonna do it more!!!"

It is also worth noting that Sabermetrics has stuff to say about lineup construction which we typically ignore, and there is a lot of effort to measure defense in a quantitative way, and all those measurements are basically exhausted in saying how bad the White Sox are defensively.

Those are a few examples from the hitting and coaching staff of things where this type of data processing is important and where they should know it, and where the White Sox work in a completely opposite approach. Lineup construction, patient but effective approach at the plate, getting the ball off the ground, value of defense.

[TheBooneLoganEra]

54 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I’ll disagree, and double down. Why isn’t Ozzie employed by one of the other 29 other teams if he is such an amazing manager? Sox have the best kept secret in baseball hidden away in their pre and post game shows?

Ozzie isn't managing anywhere because he was one of the first real casualties of cancel culture. He said some dumb crap in Miami and nobody wants to take that chance again with his loose mouth. 

That being said he's done his time in the penalty box. Ozzie may have worn out his stay but he was a fantastic manager from 04 to 08. He got bored the last few years. I think he'd go the same route. Come back with energy and vigor, do some great work for 4 or 5 years then fade again. I'm all for it. He is absolutely what this organization needs right now. 

[nrockway]

45 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

There are things about the White Sox that remain very "Anti-Sabermetrics". Some of the big numbers that they've made us pay attention to over the last few years include:

Swinging outside of the Strike Zone
Walk Rate
Ground Ball Rate/Launch Angle

The White Sox are consistently terrible on all of these, perhaps the worst in the league since measurements began on Launch Angle! What's more, they're actually worse this year with new hitting coaches than last year, they took what Sabermetrics was saying "You're doing wrong" and said "nuh uh, we're gonna do it more!!!"

It is also worth noting that Sabermetrics has stuff to say about lineup construction which we typically ignore, and there is a lot of effort to measure defense in a quantitative way, and all those measurements are basically exhausted in saying how bad the White Sox are defensively.

Those are a few examples from the hitting and coaching staff of things where this type of data processing is important and where they should know it, and where the White Sox work in a completely opposite approach. Lineup construction, patient but effective approach at the plate, getting the ball off the ground, value of defense.

I completely agree with all of this, I just think it rests on people over Pedro's head to institute it. I think any brand new manager without a reputation would be fine with using data to address these things you mention (which stand out even by the 'eye test' and if you don't look at the aggregate stats) but there's obviously no willpower within the organization to do so. It's actually pretty strange because the Bulls operate this way too (though the 'advanced stats' are less important in basketball), it's like Jerry just thinks statistics are made up and tell you nothing and anyone who thinks there might be a use has no voice. I think there's a debate about which 'advanced' stats are more relevant than others, I read a good argument recently about why batting average might be a better metric than OBP, but these are debates that people in the multi-billion dollar organization should be getting paid to have in order to achieve the goal of winning games and a world series and keeping fans interested in the product and spending money on it. Winning games is obviously not the most important thing to this organization, the profit stream exists regardless of whether or not fans are engaged. I don't think it's the manager's fault per se but he was clearly not the right guy for the job by any metric...I don't think they actually want to hire just 'yes men', makes more sense that they just misevaluated Grifol's ability to do the job. 

[bmags]

25 minutes ago, nrockway said:

I completely agree with all of this, I just think it rests on people over Pedro's head to institute it. I think any brand new manager without a reputation would be fine with using data to address these things you mention (which stand out even by the 'eye test' and if you don't look at the aggregate stats) but there's obviously no willpower within the organization to do so. It's actually pretty strange because the Bulls operate this way too (though the 'advanced stats' are less important in basketball), it's like Jerry just thinks statistics are made up and tell you nothing and anyone who thinks there might be a use has no voice. I think there's a debate about which 'advanced' stats are more relevant than others, I read a good argument recently about why batting average might be a better metric than OBP, but these are debates that people in the multi-billion dollar organization should be getting paid to have in order to achieve the goal of winning games and a world series and keeping fans interested in the product and spending money on it. Winning games is obviously not the most important thing to this organization, the profit stream exists regardless of whether or not fans are engaged. I don't think it's the manager's fault per se but he was clearly not the right guy for the job by any metric...I don't think they actually want to hire just 'yes men', makes more sense that they just misevaluated Grifol's ability to do the job. 

I think sox do to some extent know what "advanced stats" are important, but have a common cycle of:

1. trying to make changes to achieve against one of these metrics
2. being bad at it and not seeing a change
3. assuming it's the players
4. targeting players that have exclusively that skill
5. See it not actually help them because they weren't smart enough to balance out the impact of improving that skill vs the decline of getting bad players that were only good at that one skill

I think they cannot figure out where the balance is between Player Development helping players develop plans and improvement and finding players that can be best improved by these plans, so occasionally they'll try to just force feed players that already have that skill. But if they were available and the sox could sign them, well there was warts elsewhere. There was definitely warts.

They are a little bit better at it in pitching, but even so you see their ability to get good strikeout ability from their pitchers has come at a cost of command. And maybe that was a plan because they can't teach defense or find players with any baseball instincts whatsoever.

[WBWSF]

1 hour ago, TheBooneLoganEra said:

Ozzie isn't managing anywhere because he was one of the first real casualties of cancel culture. He said some dumb crap in Miami and nobody wants to take that chance again with his loose mouth. 

That being said he's done his time in the penalty box. Ozzie may have worn out his stay but he was a fantastic manager from 04 to 08. He got bored the last few years. I think he'd go the same route. Come back with energy and vigor, do some great work for 4 or 5 years then fade again. I'm all for it. He is absolutely what this organization needs right now. 

It would really be a good PR move  if Ozzie is made the manager this off season.

[The Kids Can Play]

20 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Dropped on You Tube. Highly recommend it. They take Sox fan questions and the answers are brutally honest from him and McGuffy.

Among the "highlights":

*Grandal is the worst free agent signing in Sox history (Even worse than Dunn)

*Moncada is the biggest bust in Sox history

*When the trades are made in a few weeks Garfein wants accountability from the front office

*Grifol hasn't delivered what he said he was going to bring to this team

*Anderson should not be batting first or second and that falls on Grifol

*Colas should not have been "given" the right field job. Sox should have signed someone.

*Rebuild has failed in part because Hahn wasn't allowed to finish the job (i.e. signing Harper)

*White Sox have zero leadership and there are issues in the clubhouse among the regular players. No team chemistry

Part II with more fan questions (Garfein said he got 2,000 responses) drops Thursday 

 

LOVE IT and Big thanks!

All the points seem accurate except one!

*Rebuild has failed in part because Hahn wasn't allowed to finish the job (i.e. signing Harper)

There were so many blunders and frankly too many to keep track of; like bad FA signings, botched trades, bad draft picks, horrible player development and bad manager hires. Not getting Harper had nothing to do with Hahn's massive debacle with the rebuild. 

I can't wait for part 2 on Thursday. 

 

[The Kids Can Play]

4 hours ago, bmags said:

I think Hahn could legitimately resign.

Hahn missed that window a few years ago when he didn't resign after his POS owner went over his head and hired his drunk buddy TRL.

[The Kids Can Play]

4 hours ago, bmags said:

I think he could find another position in the MLB in some capacity pretty easily. 

Yeah maybe very low end of a front office. Why in the world would 29 other owners ever hire Hahn?

Typical Owner's checklist of key questions and criteria for hiring a GM:

1. Can you handle a complete teardown rebuild and be successful building the club to a competitive playoff team knocking on the door of a World Series in 5-6 years after the start of the rebuild?

2. Can you mange a large player payroll that will be the upper third of the league?

3. Are you good at drafting?

4. Do you have a solid and successful scouting dept?

5. Do you have a strong player development blueprint?

6. Have you been able to maintain a top third farm system after initially having the #1 farm system from all the initial rebuild trades? At some point once you bring all the top prospects up, you need to replenish the farm system with continued talent for the future. Where is your current farm ranked?

7. Are you good at signing productive free agents?

8. Are you good at hiring managers?

9. What is your current record and lifetime record? How successful have you been in the playoffs?

9. Are you good at building a strong team culture>

Please tell me what owner is dumber than Jerry and would give this guy a high level executive position after he is fired?

Edited July 12, 2023 by The Kids Can Play

[South Side Hit Men]

2 hours ago, TheBooneLoganEra said:

Ozzie isn't managing anywhere because he was one of the first real casualties of cancel culture. He said some dumb crap in Miami and nobody wants to take that chance again with his loose mouth. 

That being said he's done his time in the penalty box. Ozzie may have worn out his stay but he was a fantastic manager from 04 to 08. He got bored the last few years. I think he'd go the same route. Come back with energy and vigor, do some great work for 4 or 5 years then fade again. I'm all for it. He is absolutely what this organization needs right now. 

He said he loved Fidel Castro, in the most Anti-Castro city in America, or World beyond Havana.

Quote

“I love Fidel Castro. I respect Fidel Castro, you know why? A lot of people have wanted to kill Fidel Castro for the last 60 years, but that motherf****r is still here.”

He is a fucking idiot and should have zero responsibility or management over other human beings. The Sox have enough fucking idiots on their payroll and they don't need to add another one.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, The Kids Can Play said:

LOVE IT and Big thanks!

All the points seem accurate except one!

*Rebuild has failed in part because Hahn wasn't allowed to finish the job (i.e. signing Harper)

There were so many blunders and frankly too many to keep track of; like bad FA signings, botched trades, bad draft picks, horrible player development and bad manager hires. Not getting Harper had nothing to do with Hahn's massive debacle with the rebuild. 

I can't wait for part 2 on Thursday. 

 

I think there's an argument to be made that there was a mismatch with his supplementing of the core youngsters (who got hurt too frequently to ever really gel together compared to Cubs/Houston) with those veteran players/resignings that flopped one by one.

Specifically Grandal, Keuchel, Lynn, Hendriks (cancer/injury), Kimbrel/Pollock...so much money was invested into veterans who were hitting their 30s fades or well along that path.

(Whether 1-2 stars like Machado or Wheeler or Harper could have held things together...we'll never know.)

But the real and final death blow was the draft and intl. completely failing to supplement those two previous groups (core/vets) as injuries (Crochet Montgomery Vera) and non  performance (Colas, pitching and middle infield) struck.  That wave essentially consisted of the fatally flawed Vaughn Madrigal and Burger.

Triple whammy.

 

Meanwhile your two best/young pitchers in Rodon and now Giolito were pushed out as well...and that's never a good thing.

Edited July 13, 2023 by caulfield12

[A-Train to 35th]

9 hours ago, mmmmmbeeer said:

We've never signed a player to a $100M contract.  Never.  Not even $80M.  

With these sorts of constraints, which positions on the diamond can you get the most bang for your buck using smaller contracts?  You're not getting impact position players.  You're not getting badass SP.  The ONLY position on the diamond where you can still get elite-level players for <$20M/yr, and on shorter term deals, is RP.  

I think Hahn sucks and needs to go.  But I understand why he loaded up on BP arms. 

Any GM that had the same money restrictions put on Hahn, would fail also.  To think that Benintendi is the largest contract ever given out by the Sox tells the story.  

I agree with your logic on the RP.

Edited July 13, 2023 by A-Train to 35th
add

[bmags]

1 hour ago, The Kids Can Play said:

Yeah maybe very low end of a front office. Why in the world would 29 other owners ever hire Hahn?

Typical Owner's checklist of key questions and criteria for hiring a GM:

1. Can you handle a complete teardown rebuild and be successful building the club to a competitive playoff team knocking on the door of a World Series in 5-6 years after the start of the rebuild?

2. Can you mange a large player payroll that will be the upper third of the league?

3. Are you good at drafting?

4. Do you have a solid and successful scouting dept?

5. Do you have a strong player development blueprint?

6. Have you been able to maintain a top third farm system after initially having the #1 farm system from all the initial rebuild trades? At some point once you bring all the top prospects up, you need to replenish the farm system with continued talent for the future. Where is your current farm ranked?

7. Are you good at signing productive free agents?

8. Are you good at hiring managers?

9. What is your current record and lifetime record? How successful have you been in the playoffs?

9. Are you good at building a strong team culture>

Please tell me what owner is dumber than Jerry and would give this guy a high level executive position after he is fired?

I didn’t say he’d be hired as a GM?

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, A-Train to 35th said:

Any GM that had the same money restrictions put on Hahn, would fail also.  To think that Benintendi is the largest contract ever given out by the Sox tells the story.  

I agree with your logic on the RP.

Hahn hasn’t failed because of budget constraints

[Balta1701]

33 minutes ago, bmags said:

Hahn hasn’t failed because of budget constraints

You want to see an amazing comp on Free Agent spending? It’s the Astros.

The Astros have signed 1 free agent contract of nine figures- to Carlos Lee in 2006. The entire time they have been title contenders, they haven’t signed a $100 million free agent. 

They have signed a $150 million deal - to keep Altuve, and another $115 for Yordan and $100 million for Bregman. So; they have signed some extensions to hold their team together, but they have been prudent in free agency under 2 different GMs.

What they have done instead is have a constant supply of young talent; they’ve had a top 5 ROY finisher each of the last 5 years, despite being low in the first round all the time. They have guys like Framber that they signed internationally, they made some trades for guys who were close to FA, but because they were effective in scouting and development they haven’t needed big FAs, and they’ve had enough talent coming up that they can afford too let Correa and Springer and others walk.

They have had a lower payroll than the White Sox the last 2 years.

[Tony]

42 minutes ago, A-Train to 35th said:

Any GM that had the same money restrictions put on Hahn, would fail also.  To think that Benintendi is the largest contract ever given out by the Sox tells the story.  

I agree with your logic on the RP.

This is an absolute crock of s%*#. The Indians, Twins, Brewers, Rays, f***, the Marlins, have way harsher payroll restrictions than the Sox and have had way more success than the Sox/Hahn. 

Not being able to sign a player for 300 million doesn’t mean consistent winners can’t happen. Far from it. 

[Bob Sacamano]

52 minutes ago, A-Train to 35th said:

Any GM that had the same money restrictions put on Hahn, would fail also.  To think that Benintendi is the largest contract ever given out by the Sox tells the story.  

I agree with your logic on the RP.

Lmao there are teams that spend way less and are more successful. Jesus what an awful take ? 

edit: teams that spend way less and way more successful in harder divisions*

Edited July 13, 2023 by Bob Sacamano

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You want to see an amazing comp on Free Agent spending? It’s the Astros.

The Astros have signed 1 free agent contract of nine figures- to Carlos Lee in 2006. The entire time they have been title contenders, they haven’t signed a $100 million free agent. 

They have signed a $150 million deal - to keep Altuve, and another $115 for Yordan and $100 million for Bregman. So; they have signed some extensions to hold their team together, but they have been prudent in free agency under 2 different GMs.

What they have done instead is have a constant supply of young talent; they’ve had a top 5 ROY finisher each of the last 5 years, despite being low in the first round all the time. They have guys like Framber that they signed internationally, they made some trades for guys who were close to FA, but because they were effective in scouting and development they haven’t needed big FAs, and they’ve had enough talent coming up that they can afford too let Correa and Springer and others walk.

They have had a lower payroll than the White Sox the last 2 years.

"Third-Round Pick and Contract Signing With the third-round selection, the Astros offered Peña a signing bonus of $576,000 to entice him to turn pro rather than return for his senior year at the University of Maine."

Not exactly a hotbed of Latin American talent, stereotypically.

He happened to far outproduce Carlos Correa these last two years by any measure.

Sox, meanwhile, haven't even had a really good SECOND round draft pick since 1970.

[caulfield12]

55 minutes ago, A-Train to 35th said:

Any GM that had the same money restrictions put on Hahn, would fail also.  To think that Benintendi is the largest contract ever given out by the Sox tells the story.  

I agree with your logic on the RP.

See Reds Rays Guardians Brewers Marlins DBacks ... even the Braves, at least compared to Mets and Phillies.

It's an easy cop out to say Hahn simply hasn't had the resources...they had the 7th highest payroll in the majors entering 2022.

 

Only team really spending their way into contention recently was Rangers with Semien Seager deGrom (bust).

[bmags]

28 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You want to see an amazing comp on Free Agent spending? It’s the Astros.

The Astros have signed 1 free agent contract of nine figures- to Carlos Lee in 2006. The entire time they have been title contenders, they haven’t signed a $100 million free agent. 

They have signed a $150 million deal - to keep Altuve, and another $115 for Yordan and $100 million for Bregman. So; they have signed some extensions to hold their team together, but they have been prudent in free agency under 2 different GMs.

What they have done instead is have a constant supply of young talent; they’ve had a top 5 ROY finisher each of the last 5 years, despite being low in the first round all the time. They have guys like Framber that they signed internationally, they made some trades for guys who were close to FA, but because they were effective in scouting and development they haven’t needed big FAs, and they’ve had enough talent coming up that they can afford too let Correa and Springer and others walk.

They have had a lower payroll than the White Sox the last 2 years.

Same story for the braves. 

[Balta1701]

30 minutes ago, bmags said:

Same story for the braves. 

I left then off because they did drop $212 million on extending Riley and $168 on extending Olson, but yes similar now and likely for the next several years.

[Quin]

4 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

He said he loved Fidel Castro, in the most Anti-Castro city in America, or World beyond Havana.

He is a fucking idiot and should have zero responsibility or management over other human beings. The Sox have enough fucking idiots on their payroll and they don't need to add another one.

He also had a robust win percentage of .426%

[chitownsportsfan]

Ozzies true talent as a manager peaked in 2005 and by the time he was done in Florida he was a shell of the guy we had before his decline. He was unable to relate to players and the media became his therapist, which does not work for the clubhouse.

He also quit on the Sox which should preclude him from ever managing here again. I love the guy but no.

[Highland]

Ozzie was no cancel culture victim if such a dumb ass thing exists. He became a bad manager and should have been fired in 2011. Bringing back an old employee would be another dumb thing the FO could do. Take the team in a different direction for god sakes.