2024 Starting Rotation Discussion

[caulfield12]

1. Cease (Hahn lacks the will or cojones to deal him, as it means capitulating on the "championship window")

2. Kopech...although some are going to prefer him in the 7th/8th innings,  aka 2021 high leverage relief role

3. T.Toussaint 

4.  Scholtens/Banks/Burke/Mena

5.  Crochet (highly unlikely)

6.  Anyone acquired before the trade deadline...

[Chicago White Sox]

For the record, Sean Burke has like a 6.70 ERA in AAA.  He is not a realistic option for OD next year unless you’re punting on him as prospect and simply want someone to eat up garbage innings.

[Chicago White Sox]

But this illustrates the general problem we have.  We have literally zero pitching depth in the upper minors and our payroll is going to be slashed.  Rick Hahn hasn’t been able to fix 2B & RF despite being holes for multiple years…imagine him trying to patch together 3/5 of a rotation.

[The Kids Can Play]

35 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

1. Cease (Hahn lacks the will or cojones to deal him, as it means capitulating on the "championship window")

2. Kopech...although some are going to prefer him in the 7th/8th innings,  aka 2021 high leverage relief role

3. T.Toussaint 

4.  Scholtens/Banks/Burke/Mena

5.  Crochet (highly unlikely)

6.  Anyone acquired before the trade deadline...

Welcome to your 2024 Sox pitching staff!

Another 90 plus loss season.

[Balta1701]

14 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

But this illustrates the general problem we have.  We have literally zero pitching depth in the upper minors and our payroll is going to be slashed.  Rick Hahn hasn’t been able to fix 2B & RF despite being holes for multiple years…imagine him trying to patch together 3/5 of a rotation.

If we are thinking long term, this is an opportunity to take advantage of.

The White Sox desperately need talent, but they have open big league spots.

Clear some of the awful money on the payroll this year, as much as you can. 

Sign 4 or 5 pitchers. A couple $5 million for 1 year swingmen, a couple $10 million 1 year starters.

Some of them will be bad or hurt, but hopefully some of them will be tradeable at the deadline next year. They won’t bring back top 100 players with 2 months of control, but they will bring back useful pieces. 

Do this 2 or 3 years in a row, and combined with trading valuable guys like Cease and improved drafting, now you have a roster that is actually in good shape.

[Tony]

This is the main reason the window was always going to be 2020-2023. You could see it coming years ago. If Crochet was turned into a starter and Kopech had developed the way they wanted, they would be in a decent spot, but the odds of both of them developing was always a longshot. There weren’t many circumstances Gio was going to be resigned and Lance Lynn is going to be 37 in 2024. 

Again, that’s why all of this is pointless. The window is closed, there is absolutely no pitching depth in the organization, and Rick will seemingly be tasked with rebuilding the rebuild. Never been a worse time to be a Sox fan. 

[Timmy U]

Sox pitching drafting/development is a real head scratcher. Take Jonathan Cannon: You go over slot on a guy with limited ceiling, but who’s close to a finished product, great. But when he proves he’s better than the competition at A+, you leave him there. Why?  Of everyone in their system, he’s probably closest to being able to survive in mlb, but they’re not pushing him.

Draft-wise, they’re desperate for close to the majors college guys, but then they go back to back second rounders coming off TJS. Their timelines are similar to high school guys.  I just don’t think this team has a plan short term or long term.

if you squint, I suppose you can imagine Thompson and Mena up sometime in the second half of 2024, but they both have serious control issues that threaten their long term viability as starters. This whole org is such a frickin mess.

[Timmy U]

And... I just read that Cannon has moved to AA. So, maybe they are gonna push him to pitch in Chi sometime in 2024.

[SoCalChiSox]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

1. Cease (Hahn lacks the will or cojones to deal him, as it means capitulating on the "championship window")

2. Kopech...although some are going to prefer him in the 7th/8th innings,  aka 2021 high leverage relief role

3. T.Toussaint 

4.  Scholtens/Banks/Burke/Mena

5.  Crochet (highly unlikely)

6.  Anyone acquired before the trade deadline...

Why don't we just leave Crochet in the minors for the rest of the year to try and build him up and work on a 3rd pitch too? 

I dont expect it to work as they already fucked up his career rushing him but maybe we could try? I think there was some article like a month ago kind of suggesting he could start next year possibly. 

Worst case it doesn't work and he's back in the BP again but this rotation could really use a legit lefty with good stuff as it will be awhile before Schultz is in the majors...like probably not till 25, IMO.

If they can snag someone like Pepiot from LAD (part of Gio compensation) and like Roby from TEX (Lynn) and maybe you snag another close to MLB prospect if someone I desperate for some BP arms, I think we can make the rotation halfway decent. I still believe in Kopech, but maybe try a new pitching coach.

[South Side Hit Men]

1. D. Cease
2. K. Hendricks
3. L. Lynn
4. M. Kopech
5. J. Cueto
6. Touki

 

[Chicago White Sox]

28 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

Sox pitching drafting/development is a real head scratcher. Take Jonathan Cannon: You go over slot on a guy with limited ceiling, but who’s close to a finished product, great. But when he proves he’s better than the competition at A+, you leave him there. Why?  Of everyone in their system, he’s probably closest to being able to survive in mlb, but they’re not pushing him.

Draft-wise, they’re desperate for close to the majors college guys, but then they go back to back second rounders coming off TJS. Their timelines are similar to high school guys.  I just don’t think this team has a plan short term or long term.

if you squint, I suppose you can imagine Thompson and Mena up sometime in the second half of 2024, but they both have serious control issues that threaten their long term viability as starters. This whole org is such a frickin mess.

Which makes me feel like even JR & Hahn must realize that next year has to be a transition season.  I think it’s possible that Cannon & Mena could be ready by 2025 (won’t necessarily be good, but rookies ready for their first shot).  Burke is another guy that could potentially be in the SP mix, but hard to feel good about him right now given how bad his 2023 has been (he probably ends up a swingman).  Everyone else seems +2 years out given where their innings load are.

I think the reality is we should probably move Cease and target a young starter that better fits our timeline.  Would the Giants consider dealing Kyle Harrison in a package for Cease?  Add an arm with that type of ceiling & control who isn’t too far off the majors and maybe there is a way to start building a competent 2025 rotation with high potential reinforcements coming thereafter.

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

1. D. Cease
2. K. Hendricks
3. L. Lynn
4. M. Kopech
5. J. Cueto
6. Touki

 

Can we even afford that rotation?

[South Side Hit Men]

10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Can we even afford that rotation?

Cease Arb $8M + Kopech $1M

Guys nobody else wants (Lynn, Hendricks, Cueto, others) $7M-$10M ($24M total).

They likely won’t sign three end of line types, but definitely likely they sign 1-2 unless they are doing an Oakland like tanking job. They pissed away $40M-$50M annually while tanking on veterans.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Cease Arb $8M + Kopech $1M

Guys nobody else wants (Lynn, Hendricks, Cueto, others) $7M-$10M ($24M total).

They likely won’t sign three end of line types, but definitely likely they sign 1-2 unless they are doing an Oakland like tanking job. They pissed away $40M-$50M annually while tanking on veterans.

Lynn has an $18M team option.  If we don’t exercise, I doubt he’s back.  And Kopech will probably make $4M next year (he makes $2.5M and it would be odd if he didn’t get some raise).  I think that rotation is probably $50M+ which may not work out with our other commitments.

[reiks12]

going to be a 100 loss season next year

[South Side Hit Men]

50 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Lynn has an $18M team option.  If we don’t exercise, I doubt he’s back.  And Kopech will probably make $4M next year (he makes $2.5M and it would be odd if he didn’t get some raise).  I think that rotation is probably $50M+ which may not work out with our other commitments.

Not even Hahn will sign him for $18M, thinking if he has no alternatives would take the $1M buyout, perhaps $10M plus a $1M-$2M option. If not, they'll get another 35 year old on their last deal. I personally hope he is traded and never pitches here again.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Not even Hahn will sign him for $18M, thinking if he has no alternatives would take the $1M buyout, perhaps $10M plus a $1M-$2M option. If not, they'll get another 35 year old on their last deal. I personally hope he is traded and never pitches here again.

You realize Clevinger got $11M right?  If Lynn keeps pitching even 75% of how he has lately that option is getting picked up by someone.

[zisk]

6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

For the record, Sean Burke has like a 6.70 ERA in AAA.  He is not a realistic option for OD next year unless you’re punting on him as prospect and simply want someone to eat up garbage innings.

hasn't pitched in a month or so. no injury report though. standard operating practice.

[zisk]

2 hours ago, reiks12 said:

going to be a 100 loss season next year

face reality my friend. we're not going to have to wait until next year for that.

[South Side Hit Men]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You realize Clevinger got $11M right?  If Lynn keeps pitching even 75% of how he has lately that option is getting picked up by someone.

If Lynn gets $18M for 2024, Manfred needs to enact a drug testing program for owners and front office staff.

 

[Tnetennba]

If we thought 2023 was ugly, next year is going to be worse. 

[Lip Man 1]

3 hours ago, Tnetennba said:

If we thought 2023 was ugly, next year is going to be worse. 

Only thing that could save it would be a change of heart by JR or new ownership.

[South Side Hit Men]

4 hours ago, Tnetennba said:

If we thought 2023 was ugly, next year is going to be worse. 

Best case scenario for Sox fans is there is a new owner approved by the league within the next 18 months.

One bright spot for 2024 will be Tim, Yoan and Eloy will be highly motivated to play hard for their next contract. If Yoan can regain his back health, there could be an interesting 2024 if all three return.

Edited July 16, 2023 by South Side Hit Men

[Tony]

6 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Only thing that could save it would be a change of heart by JR or new ownership.

Eh, I don’t know how you salvage 2024. Ohtani isn’t saving the Sox. Say you went crazy, signed Ohtani. Brought back Gio and Lynn. 

You still would have huge holes at C, 2B, RF, plus Anderson, Moncada, Vaughn, Eloy all kind of being..bad. 

I honestly don’t see any scenario where the Sox are “good” in 2024. Like, 6-7 players would have to just have complete, out of their minds, top of their celling type seasons for it to be a good team. They just don’t have the bodies. 

[South Side Hit Men]

17 minutes ago, Tony said:

Eh, I don’t know how you salvage 2024. Ohtani isn’t saving the Sox. Say you went crazy, signed Ohtani. Brought back Gio and Lynn. 

You still would have huge holes at C, 2B, RF, plus Anderson, Moncada, Vaughn, Eloy all kind of being..bad. 

I honestly don’t see any scenario where the Sox are “good” in 2024. Like, 6-7 players would have to just have complete, out of their minds, top of their celling type seasons for it to be a good team. They just don’t have the bodies. 

A team needs a 30 fWAR Position Player and 20 fWAR Pitching Staff, on average, to be a Top 6 team across The MLB.

• 2023 (58% played = X 1.72 pro-rated) 7.2 Hitters Pro-rated (24%) & Pitchers Pro-rated 10.8 (54%)
• 2022 15.2 Hitters (51%) & 17.3 Pitchers (87%)
• 2021 22.9 Hitters (76%) & 27.6 Pitchers (138%)

You'll see a motivated Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada playing for their next contract. If you can get a 2 + fWAR out of both that would be positive seasons, though reasonably under their career peaks.

Where they will be taking a hit is pitching which has held them up the prior two seasons with Lucas joining Rodon out the door. They look to be about 9 fWAR short in the pitching staff with 3 starters needed. The likely best way to obtain that with their budget is bring in guys and hope they get lucky on a couple like Cueto last season.

2024 Optimistic Best Case Scenario Projections (Previous fWAR career high)

Hitting 20.5 (68%): 4.0 CF Robert (3.7 YTD); 2.5 3B Yoan (5.5); 2.5 SS Anderson (4.6); 2.0 LF Benintendi (4.9); 1.5 Burger (0.9 YTD); 1.5 C Zavala (1.9); 1.5 Jimenez (1.7); 1.0 1B Vaughn (0.2 YTD); 1.0 RF Colas (-0.5 YTD); 1.0 R. Gonzalez (0.0); 1.0 FA Defensive Catcher; 1.0 Reserves

Pitching 11.1 + 3 new SPs (56% + new SPs)

Rotation 4.5: 3.0 Cease (4.4); 1.5 Kopech (1.7) + SP + SP + SP

Bullpen 6.6: 1.8 Hendriks (3.9); 1.0 Santos (1.1 YTD); 1.0 Bummer (1.3); 1.0 Crochet (1.4); 1.0 Graveman (1.1); 0.4 Middleton (0.2 YTD); 0.4 Toussaint (0.4); 0.0 Others.