Burger To Marlins

[LittleHurtCG]

7 minutes ago, Quin said:

Your quote and the link is right there.

But don't worry, we can write off Eder's Tommy John and foot fracture.

Seems like the Sox should have gotten a lot more than just Eder for Burger. Eder sounds like a total reclamation project with a high probability of never making the big leagues. Jake Burger is producing in real time right now and is a cheap cost controlled player. 

[Quin]

45 minutes ago, LittleHurtCG said:

Seems like the Sox should have gotten a lot more than just Eder for Burger. Eder sounds like a total reclamation project with a high probability of never making the big leagues. Jake Burger is producing in real time right now and is a cheap cost controlled player. 

They should have gotten more than Eder, yes. That much we should all agree on.

Reclamation? Not really, because Tommy John isn't a death sentence anymore and people do indeed recover from foot injuries over time. Look no farther than ... Jake Burger.

But being hyper reactionary, well, that's what leads people to super hot takes like  ? eDeR iS tOaST ?

Famously, just like how Chris Sale was toast after his foot fracture in early 2015.

[reiks12]

1 hour ago, Quin said:

They should have gotten more than Eder, yes. That much we should all agree on.

Reclamation? Not really, because Tommy John isn't a death sentence anymore and people do indeed recover from foot injuries over time. Look no farther than ... Jake Burger.

But being hyper reactionary, well, that's what leads people to super hot takes like  ? eDeR iS tOaST ?

Famously, just like how Chris Sale was toast after his foot fracture in early 2015.

Was calling Jake Eder a failure of a prospect premature? Yes. I admit that. 

But for every player like Burger who overcomes a string of likely career ending injuries, there are 500 others who dont. Right now Eder is closer to being Alec Hansen than he is Chris Sale. Even if he turns into the latter it doesnt make the trade any less ridiculous in 2023.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

5 hours ago, LittleHurtCG said:

There are people out there who honestly think the Burger trade was a good one? This Eder dude can't get anyone out in AA, turns 25 next month, and is still years away from the Show. Trading away Burger for this guy was a massive blunder. 

Sure all you have to do is read the thread. I didnt judge it right away even with being a big Burger fan. Trades don't work that way. They take time to figure out who won the trade in a one for one deal. But the more I dove into Eder he reminded me of Crochet in that he doesn't have much of a body of work of starting and still appears to be attempting to find a rhythm after TJS .

What bothers me is thathe didn't have much of a body of work and anyone could see that. It's like he had 2 good starts right before he was traded like it was an indication he was back to the form he displayed pre TJ. But that was just not enough to trade a potential multi year 30+ HR hitter who had proven he could hit the ball really hard in the majors and that the only thing he had to do witting wise was make more contact and continue hitting the ball hard when he makes more contact.

His fielding will never be excellent but it has proven to be very adequate since he settled into the position. He was pegged by Sox fans as a poor fielder because of early jitters or whatever cause him to play sloppily at the beginning. He was also pegged by "he is who we thought he was" because of his age despite missing basically 3 years , as low batting average, low OBP. So  there was a lot to say he was bad at , at the time of the trade, but it never meant he couldn't get better. I was encouraged that he could get better because of everything I read about him. He just appeared to be highly motivated once he overcame his Achilles injuries.

[fathom]

I definitely overvalued Eder based on his last start before the trade.  I’m sure the Sox did as well.

[nrockway]

Last game I watched, they clocked Eder’s fastball at 91 early in the game. I don’t know what recovery from TJ is like or what to expect when, but one thinks he’ll look a lot better when and if his velocity recovers. 
 

I still don’t hate the trade. Burger can produce like this for a few years “under team control” but the Sox aren’t going to win and don’t need a permanent dh. Take the risk on a left handed starter 

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, nrockway said:

Last game I watched, they clocked Eder’s fastball at 91 early in the game. I don’t know what recovery from TJ is like or what to expect when, but one thinks he’ll look a lot better when and if his velocity recovers. 
 

I still don’t hate the trade. Burger can produce like this for a few years “under team control” but the Sox aren’t going to win and don’t need a permanent dh. Take the risk on a left handed starter 

Who's going to play 3B after 2024?

Ramos is going to need to be a 20-30 homer guy...and while that's a possibility, not having Burger on the roster puts more pressure across all the other positions on the roster other than Robert (and you can't discount him at some point feeling too much pressure to carry the team and with nobody to protect him in the lineup as well).

 

We haven't had a permanent DH because we couldn't field a guy who could 1) consistently stay healthy and 2) hit over 800 against both RH and LHP respectively.  If we had a Yordan Alvarez, you can be pretty sure he wouldn't be sitting on the bench very often.

Edited September 7, 2023 by caulfield12

[nrockway]

4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Who's going to play 3B after 2024?

Ramos is going to need to be a 20-30 homer guy...and while that's a possibility, not having Burger on the roster puts more pressure across all the other positions on the roster other than Robert (and you can't discount him at some point feeling too much pressure to carry the team and with nobody to protect him in the lineup as well).

 

We haven't had a permanent DH because we couldn't field a guy who could 1) consistently stay healthy and 2) hit over 800 against both RH and LHP respectively.  If we had a Yordan Alvarez, you can be pretty sure he wouldn't be sitting on the bench very often.

My opinion is that it’s Ramos or a free agent or realistically it’s Montgomery and we need a SS. Burger’s defense is too bad to play the field anywhere except 1B.  His power is gone in Miami, his BABIP will regress to the mean — or at least turn into something halfway sustainable. It was a mistake paying eloy to be a perma dh, best not to make the mistake again. 

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, nrockway said:

My opinion is that it’s Ramos or a free agent or realistically it’s Montgomery and we need a SS. Burger’s defense is too bad to play the field anywhere except 1B.  His power is gone in Miami, his BABIP will regress to the mean — or at least turn into something halfway sustainable. It was a mistake paying eloy to be a perma dh, best not to make the mistake again. 

You apparently haven't watched him the last week.

And his defense has normally since 2021...especially with regular playing time, and not having to focus on 2B and 1B as well.

He's basically the exact same offensive and defensive profile as Max Muncy this year with the Dodgers.

 

The Marlins have had no issue with sticking him in the lineup every day at 3B for Jean Segura.   He's somewhere between the 12th and 14th best 3B in baseball depending on which metric or standard you use, but certainly in the Top 50% at the position.

[greg775]

10 hours ago, Quin said:

Boy, you sure are quick to write off Eder since you once called Burger a "wasted first round pick."

 

But don't worry - you're not the only one in that thread calling him a bust. @Lip Man 1 joins you, plenty of @Harold's Leg Lift ragging on the guy. @greg775 repeatedly asks what the hell were the Sox thinking by drafting him.

Burger was truly the worst pick ever, until he wasn't.

Really, the only person adamant that the pick was good/solid was @Y2Jimmy0.

I was furious at the pick but to be fair have mentioned that many times since and admitted I was wrong. Like I said he was close to becoming the only player on the team that for me was likeable. I was close to being a Burger enthusiast. ... Moving him to second was such a joke. It shows you partly how the inmates run the asylum so to speak. I'm assuming they didn't want to anger Moncada by moving him to 2B even though that woulda made for a "decent" infield lineup. Burger, TA, Moncada and Vaughn is not the worst infield in the majors. Moncada, TA, Burger and Vaughn is laughable.

[nrockway]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

You apparently haven't watched him the last week.

And his defense has normally since 2021...especially with regular playing time, and not having to focus on 2B and 1B as well.

He's basically the exact same offensive and defensive profile as Max Muncy this year with the Dodgers.

 

The Marlins have had no issue with sticking him in the lineup every day at 3B for Jean Segura.   He's somewhere between the 12th and 14th best 3B in baseball depending on which metric or standard you use, but certainly in the Top 50% at the position.

Muncy walks at nearly a three times higher rate and it stands to reason that Jake's batting average will look closer to Muncy's than it will to his current MIA batting average. I'm not watching every Marlins game but .373 babip with Miami vs .225 with Chicago leads me to believe he's getting a little lucky. The fact that he plays every day over Segura doesn't really say anything because Segura is a terrible player who I was completely wrong in thinking the Sox should've signed. Burger's a better player than Moncada too, but will cost actual money by the time it matters again, and in my opinion isn't good enough or versatile enough to worry about keeping around. is he truly that much better than Eloy (who might also be a better trade piece next season than this one)? why not just sign max muncy?

Truly, I don't know how to project Eder but I'm just saying I don't fault the decision to sell high on Burger for starting pitching. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, nrockway said:

Muncy walks at nearly a three times higher rate and it stands to reason that Jake's batting average will look closer to Muncy's than it will to his current MIA batting average. I'm not watching every Marlins game but .373 babip with Miami vs .225 with Chicago leads me to believe he's getting a little lucky. The fact that he plays every day over Segura doesn't really say anything because Segura is a terrible player who I was completely wrong in thinking the Sox should've signed. Burger's a better player than Moncada too, but will cost actual money by the time it matters again, and in my opinion isn't good enough or versatile enough to worry about keeping around. is he truly that much better than Eloy (who might also be a better trade piece next season than this one)? why not just sign max muncy?

Truly, I don't know how to project Eder but I'm just saying I don't fault the decision to sell high on Burger for starting pitching. 

I was just referring to dWAR and oWAR numbers with Muncy and Burger.  Jake is now up to #10 among MLB 3B.

It would be the classic Sox way to go from a 27 year old cost-controlled player to a 33 year old FA in Muncy who's obviously going to be magnitudes more expensive.

 

14.3

-2.9

2.7    Burger

12.5

-2.5

2.6    Muncy

Edited September 7, 2023 by caulfield12

[nrockway]

10 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

I was just referring to dWAR and oWAR numbers with Muncy and Burger.  Jake is now up to #10 among MLB 3B.

It would be the classic Sox way to go from a 27 year old cost-controlled player to a 33 year old FA in Muncy who's obviously going to be magnitudes more expensive.

 

14.3

-2.9

2.7    Burger

12.5

-2.5

2.6    Muncy

I think it’s risky to expect Burger to continue producing like this and to be this healthy. Time will tell I guess, and early returns suggest I’m wrong. I hope he does turn into a great player. I think his skillset is more replaceable than Eder’s though. Now Eder just has to not have a 15 ERA or whatever it is currently. 

[T R U]

Guys, we've had our own Burger this whole time and you didn't even realize it. Last 28 days...

Moncada - .346/.377/.568 - 4 HRs 14 RBIs

Burger - .348/.398/.573 - 5 HRs 14 RBIs

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, T R U said:

Guys, we've had our own Burger this whole time and you didn't even realize it. Last 28 days...

Moncada - .346/.377/.568 - 4 HRs 14 RBIs

Burger - .348/.398/.573 - 5 HRs 14 RBIs

Slight difference in the price tags but point taken.

Marlins wouldn't have been able to afford him without Sox subsidizing 75-80% of the cost.

[Kyyle23]

13 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Slight difference in the price tags but point taken.

Marlins wouldn't have been able to afford him without Sox subsidizing 75-80% of the cost.

The point is not “we should have traded them Moncada” because that was never the point 

[Quin]

On 9/6/2023 at 7:56 PM, reiks12 said:

Was calling Jake Eder a failure of a prospect premature? Yes. I admit that. 

But for every player like Burger who overcomes a string of likely career ending injuries, there are 500 others who dont. Right now Eder is closer to being Alec Hansen than he is Chris Sale. Even if he turns into the latter it doesnt make the trade any less ridiculous in 2023.

If it makes you feel better, my "this will never come back to haunt me, surely" posts are "Fernando Tatis is just a flyer and will never amount to anything" and buckets of copium like "mayhaps James Shields is good for Giolito's development" articles that Merkin was cranking out.

Like, goddamn, why did they need to include anything for James Shields.

[Milkman delivers]

Burger has hit 6 home runs through 8 innings so far today. Don’t look into it, though. It’s a double header and they’re not broadcasting the first game.

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, Milkman delivers said:

Burger has hit 6 home runs through 8 innings so far today. Don’t look into it, though. It’s a double header and they’re not broadcasting the first game.

Huh?

[Milkman delivers]

4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Huh?

Just making a joke about how people keep updating this thread with Burger’s stats and how the trade has been lopsided so far.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 9/6/2023 at 9:13 PM, nrockway said:

Muncy walks at nearly a three times higher rate and it stands to reason that Jake's batting average will look closer to Muncy's than it will to his current MIA batting average. I'm not watching every Marlins game but .373 babip with Miami vs .225 with Chicago leads me to believe he's getting a little lucky. The fact that he plays every day over Segura doesn't really say anything because Segura is a terrible player who I was completely wrong in thinking the Sox should've signed. Burger's a better player than Moncada too, but will cost actual money by the time it matters again, and in my opinion isn't good enough or versatile enough to worry about keeping around. is he truly that much better than Eloy (who might also be a better trade piece next season than this one)? why not just sign max muncy?

Truly, I don't know how to project Eder but I'm just saying I don't fault the decision to sell high on Burger for starting pitching. 

Since I'm the resident SOx guy high on Burger , (no slight to Caulfield)  I think you underestimate his defense at 3rd. It's basically the only position he's played with the Marlins. He has 4 errors on the year. He isn't a guy who covers a great amount of ground but he wouldnt be nearing 3 fWAR if he was a waste at 3rd base .You have to play at least decent defense for your WAR to climb above 0 which is why we've never seen Vaughn's WAR get much higher than 0.

 Also in the past,  (probably in this thread ) I talked about Burger being able to improve just based on that .225 BABIP with the Sox. His hard contact rates are very good so all he had to do was make more contact and the hard hit rate would take care of the BABIP rising which is what he is doing with the Marlins since his K rate is about 10% less than it was with the Sox.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

When the Jazz Chisholm rumors were going around. I 'm sure I'm on record somewhere of saying that was never going to happen but I wouldn't mind getting Jesus Sanchez. Breakout year for him this year.About 100+ AB's less than Burger this year but still very good numbers.

This was in my quest for more LH OF's in the off season. I thought Sanchez, Outman and Kelenic were all decent bets to produce. I also liked Nootbaar. He's another guy having a breakout year. I also liked some of the AZ OF's. I would've had a pretty good off season betting on almost all of those guys. Instead we got Benintendi .

Of course the Sox in their infinite wisdom thought throwing money at the problem to was the answer. I wanted to go young.

[nrockway]

16 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Since I'm the resident SOx guy high on Burger , (no slight to Caulfield)  I think you underestimate his defense at 3rd. It's basically the only position he's played with the Marlins. He has 4 errors on the year. He isn't a guy who covers a great amount of ground but he wouldnt be nearing 3 fWAR if he was a waste at 3rd base .You have to play at least decent defense for your WAR to climb above 0 which is why we've never seen Vaughn's WAR get much higher than 0.

 Also in the past,  (probably in this thread ) I talked about Burger being able to improve just based on that .225 BABIP with the Sox. His hard contact rates are very good so all he had to do was make more contact and the hard hit rate would take care of the BABIP rising which is what he is doing with the Marlins since his K rate is about 10% less than it was with the Sox.

I wrote a long post and it got deleted when the train I was on went under a tunnel. I’ll rewrite it eventually but the gist is I don’t trust dWAR and I hope Jake develops into a star. 

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, nrockway said:

I wrote a long post and it got deleted when the train I was on went under a tunnel. I’ll rewrite it eventually but the gist is I don’t trust dWAR and I hope Jake develops into a star. 

Then they'll just say Hahn and Getz wanted to keep him but were overruled by KW and JR...

[caulfield12]

32 homers 72 RBIs

go ahead bomb against Braves in must win game late

line drive missile to RCF off Kirby Yates

Exit Velocity

113

mph

Distance

411

ft

Launch Angle

17

deg

 

DJ Jazzy Jeff Chisholm followed with GS

Edited September 16, 2023 by caulfield12