Burger To Marlins

[caulfield12]

6 hours ago, T R U said:

That slash line doesn't show how his power metrics have seemingly plummeted since the trade. Like you said, its early.

Isn't the key point that his OPS is rising again?

I mean...Bellinger will never be 2019 MVP Power Version, but he's still going to get a boatload of money in the $150-200 million range regardless.

Who's to say being in a place where he's happy, feels wanted and is competing for a playoff spot every day won't even bring more out of him?

Edited August 14, 2023 by caulfield12

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

16 hours ago, Chimpton said:

Trading away Burger was a difficult to understand decision except that they aren't going to bin Moncada, and unless they swallow a big chunk of salary no one would take him, so that is 3B blocked, they are not getting rid of Eloy so that is DH blocked and they are clearly investing in Vaughn as a 'franchise player' with all the positive stories about him, so that is 1B blocked. So in Hahn' mind getting a prospect for Burger made sense.

But that ignores what you say about his fan appeal and HR potential. Basically Burger was a victim of the badly built squad by Hahn which is overloaded with 1B/DH types and where Moncada and Eloy got huge deals early and have failed to deliver on them, there is still some hope that an injury free Eloy could deliver but I can't see Moncada suddenly improving.

However you can't say blocked if they only have Moncada and Eloy each for 1 more year which is a distinct possibility. Also Devers isn't a great 3rd basement either and he plays 3rd a lot. Burger isn't terrible at third , he's near the bottom for sure but it's still a fairly limited sample size and precludes the possibility that he'll get better. It's basically the same argument I've been using about his hitting.

If he all of a sudden starts hitting for a higher average and taking more walks., it won't be that the Marlins fixed him. He was never broken. He just lost 3 years of development time and had already started showing he was learning  ( 11 walks in July ) and showing a proclivity for wanting to dive into data. He hit's the ball as hard as anyone in baseball when he makes contact. His BABIP should be able to go much higher than it was. He might not hit HR's at the same pace but he's shown he can go oppo and just isnt a pull only guy.

[Texsox]

@CaliSoxFanViaSWside great point about never broken. I think we forget that these guys lost a couple years and would have been learning in AAA in other organizations. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

8 hours ago, T R U said:

That slash line doesn't show how his power metrics have seemingly plummeted since the trade. Like you said, its early.

Yes it is early . His power metrics probably were never going to be as high as they were. They were outrageously high . His latest line with the Marlins is .326 , .396 , .488, .884  . A lot of the complaints about Burger were he wasn't hitting for average and had a terrible on base percentage. These complaints are typical of fans refusing to look at the full picture. He did lead the team in walks in July. He also lost 3 years of development time with the injury. 3 years !! That means a lot. Aso his 1st year getting nearly full time playing time so basically 4 months of really just getting into a chance to adjust.  James Otman , atrue rookie at 26, started hot then got cold and is now hot again.  Same thing except Outman always knew how to take walks and is a good fielder but then again he didn't miss 3 years. Plummeting power numbers are a bit of an exaggeration when he's now hitting for average and taking walks and his OPS is higher for the time being. He also would've had a double instead of a single on that game winning hit. 1 HR and 4 doubles in 12 games is not a big deal when he's hitting over . 300 and his OBP is nearly .400. A guy should actually have more singles than all his extra base hits combined if he's going to be a well rounded hitter. EARLy  results say he's been being a better hitter . He's one of those guys who studies his craft and his wife helps him.  The guy wants to be better, he studies to be better. so I hope he will be better.

[hankchifan]

38 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

However you can't say blocked if they only have Moncada and Eloy each for 1 more year which is a distinct possibility. Also Devers isn't a great 3rd basement either and he plays 3rd a lot. Burger isn't terrible at third , he's near the bottom for sure but it's still a fairly limited sample size and precludes the possibility that he'll get better. It's basically the same argument I've been using about his hitting.

If he all of a sudden starts hitting for a higher average and taking more walks., it won't be that the Marlins fixed him. He was never broken. He just lost 3 years of development time and had already started showing he was learning  ( 11 walks in July ) and showing a proclivity for wanting to dive into data. He hit's the ball as hard as anyone in baseball when he makes contact. His BABIP should be able to go much higher than it was. He might not hit HR's at the same pace but he's shown he can go oppo and just isnt a pull only guy.

Burger was 7 for 12 against the Yankees last weekend.  Sox gave up on Burger too soon.  Move Moncada to second and keep Burger at 3 rd was the wiser decision.  We needed Burger power at homer friendly GRF.  He was a first rounder.  Could turn into a Schwarber and we will miss his 30-40 homers per season.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 minute ago, hankchifan said:

Burger was 7 for 12 against the Yankees last weekend.  Sox gave up on Burger too soon.  Move Moncada to second and keep Burger at 3 rd was the wiser decision.  We needed Burger power at homer friendly GRF.  He was a first rounder.  Could turn into a Schwarber and we will miss his 30-40 homers per season.

He could turn into better than Schwarber . Schwarber has the advantage in that he is LH and mainly faces pitchers who are RH. That's the built in advantage of being LH  in a sport where over 70% of pitchers are RH. Doubtful Jake ever comes close to taking as many walks as Schwarber .

Schwarber's 2 highest fWAR years were 21 and 22  and fWAr of 2.8 and 2.6. Mostly all of it is from offense. So far this year Burger has a 2.0 fWAR with positive contributions offensively and baserunning while the defense hasn't been nearly as bad as Schwarber. Already in 2023 in twice as many games as 2022 Burger's defensive fWAR is a lot better (-4.9 to a now acceptable -2.1)

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

39 minutes ago, Texsox said:

@CaliSoxFanViaSWside great point about never broken. I think we forget that these guys lost a couple years and would have been learning in AAA in other organizations. 

I think all of the 3 years lost were due to the Achilles rupturing twice. I knew other players lost development time due to Covid and a little more due to labor problems , but Burger wouldn't have played those years anyway. He was rehabbing his injuries and not able to play baseball at all.

Someone like Vaughn lost time but he was still able to play in Schaumburg taxi squad in 2020.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Again addressing "power" plummetting. The following is from a very recent Miami Herald Article.

And Burger isn’t sacrificing power to bump up his batting average. Of Burgers 33 balls play through his first 11 games with Miami, 12 have an exit velocity of at least 100 mph — he’s one of only 18 players to have that many since Aug. 2.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/mlb/miami-marlins/article278218297.html

[Texsox]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I think all of the 3 years lost were due to the Achilles rupturing twice. I knew other players lost development time due to Covid and a little more due to labor problems , but Burger wouldn't have played those years anyway. He was rehabbing his injuries and not able to play baseball at all.

Someone like Vaughn lost time but he was still able to play in Schaumburg taxi squad in 2020.

True. I was kind of generalizing. 

While Schaumburg was better than nothing, it still seemed like wasted time. 

[South Side Hit Men]

Much of the angst over this trade in particular is the organization was being vague about their direction. Hopefully the trade is a win win for both teams over time. Unfortunately for Jake Burger and Burger fans, he was the only position player in demand at the deadline.

A majority of fans will accept a well thought out and communicated plan by a new FO this offseason, with a FO in place by end of WS, new manager by mid November to allow playoff team candidates, and a honest 2024 and three year plan.

Admit mistakes, take care of your die-hard season ticket holders with a significant ticket price decreases for long term goodwill (20% for ST, 10-15% for individual ticket sales), lower parking to $25-$30. Bring back season ticket perks (Bring back on the field days, give them a buffet spread, have special bobbleheads or other giveaways. Bring back SoxFest with the new FO and Manager, and start promoting the good players and people you already have beyond Liam.

The Sox have a chance for a fresh direction, fresh management and a fresh start. Will they take advange?

Current 2026 Potential Core Players (Player (2026 Age))

• Infield: C Quero (23); 1B Vaughn (28); 2B Sosa (26); 3B Ramos (24); SS Montgomery (24)
• Outfield: RF Colas (27); CF Robert Jr. (28); LF Benintendi (31); DH Jimenez (29)
• Reserves: C Lee (27); INF Rodriguez (25); INF/OF Gonzalez (29)
• RH Pitchers: Burke (26); Cannon (26); Garcia (27); Leasure (28); Mena (23); Nastrini (26); Pallette (25); Patino (27); Santos (27)
• LF Pitchers: Bush (26); Crochet (27); Eder (27); Schultz (23)

[T R U]

10 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Again addressing "power" plummetting. The following is from a very recent Miami Herald Article.

And Burger isn’t sacrificing power to bump up his batting average. Of Burgers 33 balls play through his first 11 games with Miami, 12 have an exit velocity of at least 100 mph — he’s one of only 18 players to have that many since Aug. 2.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/mlb/miami-marlins/article278218297.html

His exit velocity is lower with the marlins than it was with the Sox. I don’t get your point. All his power metrics are down since the trade, why do you keep saying “power” it’s fact not opinion. 

[Texsox]

7 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Much of the angst over this trade in particular is the organization was being vague about their direction. Hopefully the trade is a win win for both teams over time. Unfortunately for Jake Burger and Burger fans, he was the only position player in demand at the deadline.

A majority of fans will accept a well thought out and communicated plan by a new FO this offseason, with a FO in place by end of WS, new manager by mid November to allow playoff team candidates, and a honest 2024 and three year plan.

Admit mistakes, take care of your die-hard season ticket holders with a significant ticket price decreases for long term goodwill (20% for ST, 10-15% for individual ticket sales), lower parking to $25-$30. Bring back season ticket perks (Bring back on the field days, give them a buffet spread, have special bobbleheads or other giveaways. Bring back SoxFest with the new FO and Manager, and start promoting the good players and people you already have beyond Liam.

The Sox have a chance for a fresh direction, fresh management and a fresh start. Will they take advange?

Current 2026 Potential Core Players (Player (2026 Age))

• Infield: C Quero (23); 1B Vaughn (28); 2B Sosa (26); 3B Ramos (24); SS Montgomery (24)
• Outfield: RF Colas (27); CF Robert Jr. (28); LF Benintendi (31); DH Jimenez (29)
• Reserves: C Lee (27); INF Rodriguez (25); INF/OF Gonzalez (29)
• RH Pitchers: Burke (26); Cannon (26); Garcia (27); Leasure (28); Mena (23); Nastrini (26); Pallette (25); Patino (27); Santos (27)
• LF Pitchers: Bush (26); Crochet (27); Eder (27); Schultz (23)

I wish any of that were possible. What do you think the chances are that any of that will happen? Besides some players getting older they aren't going to fire anyone, they aren't going to tell the world their plan, they aren't going to lower prices, and fans aren't going to swallow more fake dreams from the front office.

But it's a beautiful vision. It's what a real organization would do that valued fans. 

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Yes it is early . His power metrics probably were never going to be as high as they were. They were outrageously high . His latest line with the Marlins is .326 , .396 , .488, .884  . A lot of the complaints about Burger were he wasn't hitting for average and had a terrible on base percentage. These complaints are typical of fans refusing to look at the full picture. He did lead the team in walks in July. He also lost 3 years of development time with the injury. 3 years !! That means a lot. Aso his 1st year getting nearly full time playing time so basically 4 months of really just getting into a chance to adjust.  James Otman , atrue rookie at 26, started hot then got cold and is now hot again.  Same thing except Outman always knew how to take walks and is a good fielder but then again he didn't miss 3 years. Plummeting power numbers are a bit of an exaggeration when he's now hitting for average and taking walks and his OPS is higher for the time being. He also would've had a double instead of a single on that game winning hit. 1 HR and 4 doubles in 12 games is not a big deal when he's hitting over . 300 and his OBP is nearly .400. A guy should actually have more singles than all his extra base hits combined if he's going to be a well rounded hitter. EARLy  results say he's been being a better hitter . He's one of those guys who studies his craft and his wife helps him.  The guy wants to be better, he studies to be better. so I hope he will be better.

Aw come on man you really have to make me do this? I want to cheer for the guy.

His walk rate with the White Sox was 6.8%. With the Marlins so far it is 6.5%. These continue to match his minor league performance going back to 2017.

James Outman is at 11.9%. Schwarber for his career is 13.6%, higher this year.

You are looking at a guy whose BABIP with the White Sox was .225, with the Marlins it’s .375, and you’re complimenting him on taking more walks because of those extra hits.

[South Side Hit Men]

11 minutes ago, Texsox said:

I wish any of that were possible. What do you think the chances are that any of that will happen? Besides some players getting older they aren't going to fire anyone, they aren't going to tell the world their plan, they aren't going to lower prices, and fans aren't going to swallow more fake dreams from the front office.

But it's a beautiful vision. It's what a real organization would do that valued fans. 

They will bring in more overall revenue if the stop the bleeding and retain fans who have been loyal in the past. I have hope because Kenny stated he won't return once his contract is out (2023 or 2024), and the fact Jerry media (CSN Garfien / Ozzie, Nightengale) are taking shots publicly at Hahn throughout the year.

Jerry will likely keep Hahn, but hopefully in a crony "adversary" role like he is doing with Paxson.

[Autumn Dreamin]

There's something fascinating to me about how Burger is "only" 27 and has gotten "only" 340 major league at bats this year, so we can conclude there's a good chance of him turning into right handed Rafael Devers despite already being older and never showing sustained production at that level...

But rookies like Sosa are declared incapable of hitting MLB pitching after <50ABs, and younger players who also had interrupted or mishandled development time like Eloy/AV are just physically and mentally incapable of improvement apparently?

Look, I also really like Jake Burger as a person, and I think he has potential as a player, but his likeability (and perhaps his ability to be used as a foil to the pet villians around here) has been making folks a bit silly all season.

I'm almost petty enough to go dig up comments from June, when Burger put up absolutely abysmal numbers over 20+ starts, but somehow any lineup with him in the lower half (or heaven forbid, not starting) was basically a crime against humanity because he was "the best hitter on the team" despite literally looking like a backup catcher at the plate.

And I do mean literally.

• Jake Burger in June: 89AB, .146/.200/.393; 13H (6HR), 38K, 4BB
• Seby Zavala, last 30G: 72AB, .158/.226/.382; 12H (5HR), 32K, 6BB

It was a long stretch as bad as pretty much any Sox has had, at a time when it theoretically still mattered for the season, and he just seemed to get a pass for it that known SoxTalk busts and DFA candidates AV, Eloy, Moncada, every rookie, etc. would never be granted. 

Hell, LRJ was hitting .300 with a 1.000+ OPS over that same stretch (while playing excellent defense at a premium position), and for him every strikeout on a slider away had folks complaining that he was "lazy" and "didn't care" and "would never learn" a better approach.

But Jake Burger? Endless fount of potential! When anyone else chases a breaking pitch, it's basically a moral failing. When Burger swings at 25 pitches straight across multiple games...it's cool! He's "only" 27 after all, unlike AV/Luis/Eloy who are "already" 25/26, so his approach can only improve from here! Every hot streak is a sign of things to come...and every cold streak is ignored.

The reality is, like a ton of guys, he IS streaky. He was 4-23 in his first six games with MIA (with one HR). He's gone 10-24 in the six games since (with 0 HR, but 4 2B). Maybe he'll be a career .300 hitter now (apparently at the expense of his HR output?)...or maybe he's having a hot week of batted ball luck that will be sandwiched between stretches of a few 0-fers with some XBHs sprinkled in...like he did any number of times here.

If he levels out more at some point, it probably won't look like his terrible June numbers...but it's obviously also not going to be at the level of this week in Miami.

Even if you ignore how low his lowest percentile outcomes are, and that he doesn't have a glove or high BB% to fall back on as a Gallo-style floor raiser, and that his Marlins numbers have an underlying .382 BABIP, and just assume he's going to become a reliable .270BA/35HR guy going forward...It's still not malpractice to trade him to address another need?

The White Sox can like Jake Burger, and think he's a good player, and even think he's the best 3B option they have...and it can still be the right move to trade him! 

• The Marlins are stocked with young arms, and confident they can pop out enough league average or above SP to stay competitive...but they had basically no corner power in their system.
• The Sox feel like at least one of Moncada/Ramos/Popeye/Sosa/Montgomery/Gonzo can give you league average or above 3B production...but they had no LHSP close to the majors.
• The Marlins are betting that the upside of Jake Burger over whatever bats fall in their FA price range outweighs the delta between Eder and their next best option (they have two other high minors LHSP in their top 20).
• The Sox are betting that the upside of Jake Eder over...well, they had nothing close...outweighs the difference between Burger and their next best option for 3B.

And decent LHSP is not a exactly a skillset that falls off trees, hence why Keuchel still gets chances, Rich Hill is the oldest active MLB player, and Snell is well positioned to benefit from an offseason bidding war.

RH bats on the other hand...well, doesn't SoxTalk pound the table about how dumb it is to draft high for bat-first DH types in the first place, because there are options in FA? Unless you're working with a bottom 10 payroll like the Marlins...and get capped out at Segura.

A swap of two players with this much team control happens because both teams are looking beyond this season. Literally nothing that happens this year, short of career-ending circumstances or I guess Burger WSMVP, is determinative for either side.

If Burger gets a big hit tomorrow, you can actually just be happy for him instead of making it about whatever Sox player/prospect/FO member you hate most that day or acting like Burger taking 3 walks in 12 games has fundamentally revolutionized what he's capable of for the next 5 years.

And if the 2025 Marlins really do get a magical 4WAR 3B version of Burger to pair with 2.5WAR LHP Dax Fulton, but the 2025 White Sox have 3.5WAR LHP Jake Eder to pair with 3WAR 3B Bryan Ramos, then both sides still "win" despite giving up a better player than they kept for the respective position.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I think all of the 3 years lost were due to the Achilles rupturing twice. I knew other players lost development time due to Covid and a little more due to labor problems , but Burger wouldn't have played those years anyway. He was rehabbing his injuries and not able to play baseball at all.

Someone like Vaughn lost time but he was still able to play in Schaumburg taxi squad in 2020.

n 2020, Burger participated in the CarShield Collegiate league, a collegiate summer league in O'Fallon, Missouri, because there was no minor league season due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It was his first time playing competitive baseball since Spring Training 2017.

[caulfield12]

19 minutes ago, Autumn Dreamin said:

There's something fascinating to me about how Burger is "only" 27 and has gotten "only" 340 major league at bats this year, so we can conclude there's a good chance of him turning into right handed Rafael Devers despite already being older and never showing sustained production at that level...

But rookies like Sosa are declared incapable of hitting MLB pitching after <50ABs, and younger players who also had interrupted or mishandled development time like Eloy/AV are just physically and mentally incapable of improvement apparently?

Look, I also really like Jake Burger as a person, and I think he has potential as a player, but his likeability (and perhaps his ability to be used as a foil to the pet villians around here) has been making folks a bit silly all season.

I'm almost petty enough to go dig up comments from June, when Burger put up absolutely abysmal numbers over 20+ starts, but somehow any lineup with him in the lower half (or heaven forbid, not starting) was basically a crime against humanity because he was "the best hitter on the team" despite literally looking like a backup catcher at the plate.

And I do mean literally.

• Jake Burger in June: 89AB, .146/.200/.393; 13H (6HR), 38K, 4BB
• Seby Zavala, last 30G: 72AB, .158/.226/.382; 12H (5HR), 32K, 6BB

It was a long stretch as bad as pretty much any Sox has had, at a time when it theoretically still mattered for the season, and he just seemed to get a pass for it that known SoxTalk busts and DFA candidates AV, Eloy, Moncada, every rookie, etc. would never be granted. 

Hell, LRJ was hitting .300 with a 1.000+ OPS over that same stretch (while playing excellent defense at a premium position), and for him every strikeout on a slider away had folks complaining that he was "lazy" and "didn't care" and "would never learn" a better approach.

But Jake Burger? Endless fount of potential! When anyone else chases a breaking pitch, it's basically a moral failing. When Burger swings at 25 pitches straight across multiple games...it's cool! He's "only" 27 after all, unlike AV/Luis/Eloy who are "already" 25/26, so his approach can only improve from here! Every hot streak is a sign of things to come...and every cold streak is ignored.

The reality is, like a ton of guys, he IS streaky. He was 4-23 in his first six games with MIA (with one HR). He's gone 10-24 in the six games since (with 0 HR, but 4 2B). Maybe he'll be a career .300 hitter now (apparently at the expense of his HR output?)...or maybe he's having a hot week of batted ball luck that will be sandwiched between stretches of a few 0-fers with some XBHs sprinkled in...like he did any number of times here.

If he levels out more at some point, it probably won't look like his terrible June numbers...but it's obviously also not going to be at the level of this week in Miami.

Even if you ignore how low his lowest percentile outcomes are, and that he doesn't have a glove or high BB% to fall back on as a Gallo-style floor raiser, and that his Marlins numbers have an underlying .382 BABIP, and just assume he's going to become a reliable .270BA/35HR guy going forward...It's still not malpractice to trade him to address another need?

The White Sox can like Jake Burger, and think he's a good player, and even think he's the best 3B option they have...and it can still be the right move to trade him! 

• The Marlins are stocked with young arms, and confident they can pop out enough league average or above SP to stay competitive...but they had basically no corner power in their system.
• The Sox feel like at least one of Moncada/Ramos/Popeye/Sosa/Montgomery/Gonzo can give you league average or above 3B production...but they had no LHSP close to the majors.
• The Marlins are betting that the upside of Jake Burger over whatever bats fall in their FA price range outweighs the delta between Eder and their next best option (they have two other high minors LHSP in their top 20).
• The Sox are betting that the upside of Jake Eder over...well, they had nothing close...outweighs the difference between Burger and their next best option for 3B.

And decent LHSP is not a exactly a skillset that falls off trees, hence why Keuchel still gets chances, Rich Hill is the oldest active MLB player, and Snell is well positioned to benefit from an offseason bidding war.

RH bats on the other hand...well, doesn't SoxTalk pound the table about how dumb it is to draft high for bat-first DH types in the first place, because there are options in FA? Unless you're working with a bottom 10 payroll like the Marlins...and get capped out at Segura.

A swap of two players with this much team control happens because both teams are looking beyond this season. Literally nothing that happens this year, short of career-ending circumstances or I guess Burger WSMVP, is determinative for either side.

If Burger gets a big hit tomorrow, you can actually just be happy for him instead of making it about whatever Sox player/prospect/FO member you hate most that day or acting like Burger taking 3 walks in 12 games has fundamentally revolutionized what he's capable of for the next 5 years.

And if the 2025 Marlins really do get a magical 4WAR 3B version of Burger to pair with 2.5WAR LHP Dax Fulton, but the 2025 White Sox have 3.5WAR LHP Jake Eder to pair with 3WAR 3B Bryan Ramos, then both sides still "win" despite giving up a better player than they kept for the respective position.

Comparing Lenyn Sosa with a mid first round June draft pick (ultimately decided by a consensus of MLB scouts that he was to  the fourth best hitter in that group of NCAA position players, and many projected him as the very best power hitter of the group)...those are two quite different universes.

Remember, this is a guy who played at Missouri State (SW Missouri State formerly) in Springfield, MO, not exactly the heart of the scouting/recruiting circuits.   He received a LOT of exposure because of their knocking off Oklahoma State, Arkansas (won 2 out of 3) before being knocked off two games in a row by TCU.

 

1	1	JR	Royce Lewis	Minnesota Twins	SS	JSerra High School (San Juan Capistrano, CA)
1	2	JR	Hunter Greene	Cincinnati Reds	RHP/SS	Notre Dame High School (Sherman Oaks, CA)
1	3	JR	MacKenzie Gore	San Diego Padres	LHP	Whiteville High School (Whiteville, NC)
1	4	JR	Brendan McKay	Tampa Bay Rays	LHP	Louisville
1	5	JR	Kyle Wright	Atlanta Braves	RHP	Vanderbilt University
1	6	JR	Austin Beck	Oakland Athletics	OF	North Davidson High School (Lexington, NC)
1	7	JR	Pavin Smith	Arizona Diamondbacks	1B	University of Virginia
1	8	JR	Adam Haseley	Philadelphia Phillies	OF	University of Virginia
1	9	JR	Keston Hiura	Milwaukee Brewers	2B	UC Irvine
1	10	JR	Jo Adell	Los Angeles Angels	OF	Ballard High School (Louisville, KY)
1	11	JR	Jake Burger	Chicago White Sox	3B	Missouri State University

Edited August 15, 2023 by caulfield12

[Quin]

6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Comparing Lenyn Sosa with a mid first round June draft pick (ultimately decided by a consensus of MLB scouts that he was to  the fourth best hitter in that group of NCAA position players, and many projected him as the very best power hitter of the group)...those are two quite different universes.

 

1	1	JR	Royce Lewis	Minnesota Twins	SS	JSerra High School (San Juan Capistrano, CA)
1	2	JR	Hunter Greene	Cincinnati Reds	RHP/SS	Notre Dame High School (Sherman Oaks, CA)
1	3	JR	MacKenzie Gore	San Diego Padres	LHP	Whiteville High School (Whiteville, NC)
1	4	JR	Brendan McKay	Tampa Bay Rays	LHP	Louisville
1	5	JR	Kyle Wright	Atlanta Braves	RHP	Vanderbilt University
1	6	JR	Austin Beck	Oakland Athletics	OF	North Davidson High School (Lexington, NC)
1	7	JR	Pavin Smith	Arizona Diamondbacks	1B	University of Virginia
1	8	JR	Adam Haseley	Philadelphia Phillies	OF	University of Virginia
1	9	JR	Keston Hiura	Milwaukee Brewers	2B	UC Irvine
1	10	JR	Jo Adell	Los Angeles Angels	OF	Ballard High School (Louisville, KY)
1	11	JR	Jake Burger	Chicago White Sox	3B	Missouri State University

Well f*** me, who needs Jake Burger or Lenyn Sosa when we have Adam Haseley? 

By the way, here's a composite draft - Haseley projected at 7, 8, and 9.

Burger? 15, 17 and 24.

Draft projections mean f*** all 6 years later, especially compared to LatAm signings.

[hankchifan]

It is also good to remind that Burger was under team control through 2028 season.

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, Quin said:

Well f*** me, who needs Jake Burger or Lenyn Sosa when we have Adam Haseley? 

By the way, here's a composite draft - Haseley projected at 7, 8, and 9.

Burger? 15, 17 and 24.

Draft projections mean f*** all 6 years later, especially compared to LatAm signings.

Well, we might have done ONE thing better than the Brewers.

Thought Hiura would have been a perfect change of scenery guy to come over from MIL since he's buried now over there.  The defense would certainly fit in as well.

[Texsox]

6 hours ago, hankchifan said:

It is also good to remind that Burger was under team control through 2028 season.

Making him much for valuable in a trade. It's not just the numbers on the back of the card. Those contract numbers help as well. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

14 hours ago, T R U said:

His exit velocity is lower with the marlins than it was with the Sox. I don’t get your point. All his power metrics are down since the trade, why do you keep saying “power” it’s fact not opinion. 

I didn't say plummet you did and I didn't write the article. If the point you are trying to make is that his exit velocity numbers with the Sox were among the best in baseball  then I agree .  The exit velocity numbers with the Marlins like the article said was among the 18 best in baseball. However we are quibbling over a very small sample size. If that sample size with the Marlins makes you think his power number plummeted while still being among the best in baseball I don't know what to tell you.  He's been great in his small sample with the Marlins.

 

13 hours ago, Autumn Dreamin said:

There's something fascinating to me about how Burger is "only" 27 and has gotten "only" 340 major league at bats this year, so we can conclude there's a good chance of him turning into right handed Rafael Devers despite already being older and never showing sustained production at that level...

But rookies like Sosa are declared incapable of hitting MLB pitching after <50ABs, and younger players who also had interrupted or mishandled development time like Eloy/AV are just physically and mentally incapable of improvement apparently?

Look, I also really like Jake Burger as a person, and I think he has potential as a player, but his likeability (and perhaps his ability to be used as a foil to the pet villians around here) has been making folks a bit silly all season.

I'm almost petty enough to go dig up comments from June, when Burger put up absolutely abysmal numbers over 20+ starts, but somehow any lineup with him in the lower half (or heaven forbid, not starting) was basically a crime against humanity because he was "the best hitter on the team" despite literally looking like a backup catcher at the plate.

And I do mean literally.

• Jake Burger in June: 89AB, .146/.200/.393; 13H (6HR), 38K, 4BB
• Seby Zavala, last 30G: 72AB, .158/.226/.382; 12H (5HR), 32K, 6BB

It was a long stretch as bad as pretty much any Sox has had, at a time when it theoretically still mattered for the season, and he just seemed to get a pass for it that known SoxTalk busts and DFA candidates AV, Eloy, Moncada, every rookie, etc. would never be granted. 

Hell, LRJ was hitting .300 with a 1.000+ OPS over that same stretch (while playing excellent defense at a premium position), and for him every strikeout on a slider away had folks complaining that he was "lazy" and "didn't care" and "would never learn" a better approach.

But Jake Burger? Endless fount of potential! When anyone else chases a breaking pitch, it's basically a moral failing. When Burger swings at 25 pitches straight across multiple games...it's cool! He's "only" 27 after all, unlike AV/Luis/Eloy who are "already" 25/26, so his approach can only improve from here! Every hot streak is a sign of things to come...and every cold streak is ignored.

The reality is, like a ton of guys, he IS streaky. He was 4-23 in his first six games with MIA (with one HR). He's gone 10-24 in the six games since (with 0 HR, but 4 2B). Maybe he'll be a career .300 hitter now (apparently at the expense of his HR output?)...or maybe he's having a hot week of batted ball luck that will be sandwiched between stretches of a few 0-fers with some XBHs sprinkled in...like he did any number of times here.

If he levels out more at some point, it probably won't look like his terrible June numbers...but it's obviously also not going to be at the level of this week in Miami.

Even if you ignore how low his lowest percentile outcomes are, and that he doesn't have a glove or high BB% to fall back on as a Gallo-style floor raiser, and that his Marlins numbers have an underlying .382 BABIP, and just assume he's going to become a reliable .270BA/35HR guy going forward...It's still not malpractice to trade him to address another need?

The White Sox can like Jake Burger, and think he's a good player, and even think he's the best 3B option they have...and it can still be the right move to trade him! 

• The Marlins are stocked with young arms, and confident they can pop out enough league average or above SP to stay competitive...but they had basically no corner power in their system.
• The Sox feel like at least one of Moncada/Ramos/Popeye/Sosa/Montgomery/Gonzo can give you league average or above 3B production...but they had no LHSP close to the majors.
• The Marlins are betting that the upside of Jake Burger over whatever bats fall in their FA price range outweighs the delta between Eder and their next best option (they have two other high minors LHSP in their top 20).
• The Sox are betting that the upside of Jake Eder over...well, they had nothing close...outweighs the difference between Burger and their next best option for 3B.

And decent LHSP is not a exactly a skillset that falls off trees, hence why Keuchel still gets chances, Rich Hill is the oldest active MLB player, and Snell is well positioned to benefit from an offseason bidding war.

RH bats on the other hand...well, doesn't SoxTalk pound the table about how dumb it is to draft high for bat-first DH types in the first place, because there are options in FA? Unless you're working with a bottom 10 payroll like the Marlins...and get capped out at Segura.

A swap of two players with this much team control happens because both teams are looking beyond this season. Literally nothing that happens this year, short of career-ending circumstances or I guess Burger WSMVP, is determinative for either side.

If Burger gets a big hit tomorrow, you can actually just be happy for him instead of making it about whatever Sox player/prospect/FO member you hate most that day or acting like Burger taking 3 walks in 12 games has fundamentally revolutionized what he's capable of for the next 5 years.

And if the 2025 Marlins really do get a magical 4WAR 3B version of Burger to pair with 2.5WAR LHP Dax Fulton, but the 2025 White Sox have 3.5WAR LHP Jake Eder to pair with 3WAR 3B Bryan Ramos, then both sides still "win" despite giving up a better player than they kept for the respective position.

Most of what I say is only in response to the Burger complainees. I think they talk about him as if he is a finished product and I balance that out they saying he could be better and that he missed 3 years of development time.

 For the record I don't bash Sosa.

You're speaking in generalities as if the people who like Burger hate Sosa. I think it's more likely that the people who bash Burger also bash Sosa. Of course the Marlins we're looking to the future with Burger but they were also looking at the present. Their team needed power and a regular third baseman.

While I know you think you are being objective It's actually OK to look at Burger and say if he hadn't lost 3 years of development time it's possible he could've already been a  very good player already instead of a 27 year old struggling with the inconsistencies that usually come for most players the 1st time they get to play full time.

I m happy for him. And although I like Burger I never hated the trade.

It's a tough pill to swallow that with White Sox player development being what it is, to look at the prospects we got and think only a couple have a shot to be good players at the MLB level. It's great the minor league system has been upgraded but until the Sox actually pick a lane and decide to put more money into how those guys are developed the end results are likely to be as bad as they were for the rebuild. It hasn't help that so far the guys the got have not been impressive to say the least.

It's likely Burger, even after the trade, will still finish 2nd among Sox position player in fWAR this year He had 1.4 at the time he was traded and is now at 2.0 . His wRC+ has gone from 115 to 117 . His defensive WAR according to fangraphs was -4.2 with the Sox and is now down to a season total of -2.1 which means he's actually been a positive WAR defensively since the trade. He might be what we thought he was, a low BA, low OBP 1B/DH type or he could surprise us all. Normally your 1st base DH types like Vaughn are shown the door because their offense isn't enough to overcome their defense but instead he was crowned an untradeable core piece.

Eloy was also declared one of those also and he is one bad injury away from the Sox cutting him loose after 2024. If this is how the Sox assess their talent  and the same guys are left in charge there's nothing to look forward to . 2 guys, Robert and Burger, were performing beyond expectations. With nothing to look forward too I think just a few of us ,judging by the likes on my posts about Burger, actually found some enjoyment  in an otherwise disastrous season with not a lot to immediately look forward too once again.

[Balta1701]

12 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

His defensive WAR according to fangraphs was -4.2 with the Sox and is now down to a season total of -2.1 which means he's actually been a positive WAR defensively since the trade.

So in 2 weeks his defense has been so incredible that he's been worth a full extra 2 wins? Either this isn't being written correctly or Jake Burger has suddenly developed the range to cover from 2b to 3b.

[T R U]

10 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I didn't say plummet you did and I didn't write the article. If the point you are trying to make is that his exit velocity numbers with the Sox were among the best in baseball  then I agree .  The exit velocity numbers with the Marlins like the article said was among the 18 best in baseball. However we are quibbling over a very small sample size. If that sample size with the Marlins makes you think his power number plummeted while still being among the best in baseball I don't know what to tell you.  He's been great in his small sample with the Marlins.

I did say plummet, because they have. I was just saying why do you keep putting those words in "air quotes" like it isn't true. And again, I want to point out I am not saying hes lost all his power, hes only played a handful of games with the Marlins. Its just what has happened right now since the trade.

The ISO, HR, and Fly Ball percentages are way down. This could be because the Marlins told him to stop selling out for home runs though.

	White Sox	Marlins
ISO	0.313	0.156
BABIP	0.225	0.382
HR%	7.7	2.0
SO%	31.6	20.0
BB%	6.8	6.0
EV	92.4	90.4
Hard Hit	50.8	48.6
Fly Ball	25.8	17.1

 

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So in 2 weeks his defense has been so incredible that he's been worth a full extra 2 wins? Either this isn't being written correctly or Jake Burger has suddenly developed the range to cover from 2b to 3b.

I know defensive WAR in small sample sizes is ludicrous to look at at. I'm just going by what I see on fangraphs.

https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/white-sox

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jake-burger/22275/stats?position=3B