Dunning / Lynn trade revisited

[NCsoxfan]

It’s interesting to look back at this trade with the season Dunning is having and the prospects we received for Lynn. Who won the trade? Arguably hasn’t been bad for either side.

[reiks12]

Dunning is going to throw up a 3-4 WAR season, I think Texas got exactly what they wanted here. Pretty good considering they have him thru 2027.

[The Kids Can Play]

I find it interesting we face Dane Dunning tonight. I forgot that we faced him almost a year ago to the day. The Rangers beat us last year 8-0 and Dunning went 7 scoreless innings for the win. 

[Balta1701]

All of these seem relatively true.

• This was approximately fair value for an underpaid veteran pitcher with Lynn’s performance
• This is the kind of deal contenders make regularly.
• The White Sox were better in 2021 than they would have been without this deal.
• Normal franchises make these deals because they know they will develop talent to replace guys they trade away.
• The White Sox did not win a title in 2021 and a single 3rd place finish in the AL isn’t all that impressive.
• The White Sox would have finished in the same spot in 2021 had they not made this deal.
• When they made this trade it was iffy because the White Sox’s previous drafts were bad. They had very little minor league depth left. There is a strong case that they could not afford to make this deal. This is different from most teams when they make deals like this.
• Because their system was so weak, the White Sox had no choice but to extend Lynn after this trade. Given his physical state, age, and leg injury, that extension has been an issue and could have been predicted to be one at the time it was signed.
• The White Sox made multiple deals for veterans with little control. This factor made each successive one sting more.
• The White Sox were worse in 2022 and 2023 because of this deal.
• The White Sox will be worse in 2024 and 2025 because of this deal.
• The White Sox would not have won the AL central or wild card in 2022, 2023, or 2024 has they not made this deal. 
• Tony LaRussas role in the trade is unknown, but it doesn’t seem likely to be a coincidence that Lynn is a former Cardinal.

[Dick Allen]

In 2021 we thought, even those who were at first very skeptical, that Hahn made a great trade as Lynn was a Cy Young contender and the White Sox were winning. Hindsight will tell you the Sox would most likely have still won the division had they not made this trade. The same thing applies to Liam Hendriks, who was great as a White Sox. They could have had a mediocre closer in 2021, and won the division. They might not have been .500 last year, but who cares? And now?

 

All this shows is the importance of drafting, international signings and development. The White Sox have been godawful at it for a long time, and won't have a legitimate chance of sustained winning and multiple championships until they do. They can be mediocre and catch lightning in a bottle here and there, but it's the same old same old until they fix what really ails them.

[bmags]

3 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

In 2021 we thought, even those who were at first very skeptical, that Hahn made a great trade as Lynn was a Cy Young contender and the White Sox were winning. Hindsight will tell you the Sox would most likely have still won the division had they not made this trade. The same thing applies to Liam Hendriks, who was great as a White Sox. They could have had a mediocre closer in 2021, and won the division. They might not have been .500 last year, but who cares? And now?

 

All this shows is the importance of drafting, international signings and development. The White Sox have been godawful at it for a long time, and won't have a legitimate chance of sustained winning and multiple championships until they do. They can be mediocre and catch lightning in a bottle here and there, but it's the same old same old until they fix what really ails them.

In 2021 the sox were ready to compete and 2021 showed us how hard it is to rely on a rotation where you are developing all of them and increasing workloads. This trade was fine.

We aren't a bad team now because we traded for Lance Lynn. I mean...we didn't "lose" the Mazara trade because of what we gave up, but that trade was so much worse as they fucked around with a year that could have been a lot more fun.

[Tony]

Put even more simply, if the Sox win the World Series in 2021 or 2022 and Lynn plays a big role in it...it's a great trade. 

Lynn helped them accomplish very little, and in 2023 and beyond, Dunning would be a valuable piece to the organization moving forward. 

It was a good trade if the Sox could have capitalized on his first two years. They didn't.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Tony said:

Put even more simply, if the Sox win the World Series in 2021 or 2022 and Lynn plays a big role in it...it's a great trade. 

Lynn helped them accomplish very little, and in 2023 and beyond, Dunning would be a valuable piece to the organization moving forward. 

It was a good trade if the Sox could have capitalized on his first two years. They didn't.

I think my life has taught me that winning a division is hard and I don't think they win the division in 2021 without Lynn/Grandal (the most maligned players). Our big run happened in the first half due to a pitching heater that Lynn was a big part of. We were .500 in the second half. No guarantee the guardians sell in that alternate universe.