Andrew Vaughn and Eloy: what's the plan here?

[chitownsportsfan]

They combined for .7 fWAR. They were a staggering -27 runs below average defensively, even for players on the wrong side of the defensive spectrum adjustment that's impressive suck.

Both guys actually outperformed their expected wOBA by half a dozen or so points each, so it wasn't like it was bad luck holding their batting lines back. Eloy had an average launch angle of 5.7 degrees, one of the worst of any MLB regular. Vaughn was at 11.2 but "warning track power" describes his game pretty well. Neither guy had an ISO to write home about, Eloy had .169 and Vaughn .171. Those are power numbers you'd expect from a decent 2B, not glorified designated hitters.

Vaughn is certainly not an extension candidate and Eloy has club options for '25 and '26 at 16.5 million and 18.5 million respectively. Those are almost certainly not getting picked up. So in essence Eloy is under contract for next season and then that's it. Vaughn will stay cheap for a bit longer, but if he's replacement level, uh, who cares.

Do you trade Eloy at rock bottom value? Or maybe hope he runs into a few next summer and you can get something better at the deadline?

Do you pencil in Vaughn as the starter at 1B again given that he's shown no ability to be an average MLB player? There's more time to decide with him than Eloy, but again, replacement level play even when cheap isn't doing anybody any good.

IMO I'd just trade both guys for whatever table scraps you can get and reboot. I don't really see how the Sox contend next year in any universe you might as well just start clearing dead wood and there is an opportunity cost keeping these guys around. There's really nothing in either guy's athletic or batted ball profile that screams "massive upside".  Even if Vaughn starts to hit he's still a god awful 1B and even if Eloy starts to hit he's still an injury prone DH. Maybe he puts it together one season but it's not something the Sox need to worry about given how far they are from contending if he puts up a 4 fWAR season in 2024.

[Balta1701]

The other part you didn't add is that they are all super aggressive. Eloy's walk rate this year was back down to where it was during his rookie year, so he's not getting on base. Vaughn's walk rate was bad and it got worse during the year, he had a 2 month period from July to August where he had 3 walks. There is some reason to believe that decent coaching could help these guys improve, but the White Sox are specifically picking coaches who want their guys to hit the ball on the ground and be aggressive, so you see that as a reason why these guys are bad, the White Sox want them to do this.

I do think there's a decent chance someone would take on most of Eloy's contract if you were trying to clear the money. I would be ok with clearing that deal, but it's not a big move that improves them. 

Vaughn will be in his first arbitration season this year. There's no good reason to move him yet, he'll get paid like $2 million, his trade value is zero, and there's no one around pushing for 1b. For a rebuilding team with no real path to competing like the White Sox, there's no reason not to hold onto him for 1 more year, even if he has a 1/100 shot of breaking out, that's better than the chances you'd have if you played Sheets there. 

 

[bmags]

They aren't blocking anyone so I don't see the point in trading them. They aren't valuable. Eloy could net something if he re-emerges as a 135 wRC+ guy. I still think that would be him in a different org. 

 

[chitownsportsfan]

32 minutes ago, bmags said:

They aren't blocking anyone so I don't see the point in trading them. They aren't valuable. Eloy could net something if he re-emerges as a 135 wRC+ guy. I still think that would be him in a different org. 

 

It's true they aren't blocking anybody but I'm really not convinced either guy is anything more than a 1 WAR player. It's a real bummer.

[Lip Man 1]

Jimenez needs to be traded. Guy is an injury waiting to happen and any thought he'll ever have a 35-40 home run season is delusional.

Keep Vaughn (for now.)

[MiddleCoastBias]

39 minutes ago, bmags said:

They aren't blocking anyone so I don't see the point in trading them. They aren't valuable. Eloy could net something if he re-emerges as a 135 wRC+ guy. I still think that would be him in a different org. 

 

This and Balta's comment about coaches telling them to hit the ball into the ground and be aggressive, just look at the difference in Jake Burger on the Sox vs. the Marlins this year. Worlds apart.

I have no doubt that Eloy would mash somewhere else. We just won't get fair value because we'll continue to suppress it by asking him to hit line drives.

[Balta1701]

34 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

It's true they aren't blocking anybody but I'm really not convinced either guy is anything more than a 1 WAR player. It's a real bummer.

If that's the case, the end result is:

Eloy has 1 guaranteed year of money remaining in 2024, at $13.8 million, with a $3 million buyout for 2025. Play him for next year, trade him if you have a better use for the money or someone gives you something of value for him close to the deadline, and if not you can have him removed from the roster by 2025.

Vaughn will probably make $2-3 million next year and he's not blocking anyone. That is minor money for him even if he's a 1 WAR player next year. There is no good reason not to give him another shot for that money. It may be reasonable to non-tender him after 2024, as his salary will ballon to $4-$5 million in his 2nd arbitration year, and that might be more than he's worth by that point. If he's slightly better, you can still hold onto him for that money.

[The Mighty Mite]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

The other part you didn't add is that they are all super aggressive. Eloy's walk rate this year was back down to where it was during his rookie year, so he's not getting on base. Vaughn's walk rate was bad and it got worse during the year, he had a 2 month period from July to August where he had 3 walks. There is some reason to believe that decent coaching could help these guys improve, but the White Sox are specifically picking coaches who want their guys to hit the ball on the ground and be aggressive, so you see that as a reason why these guys are bad, the White Sox want them to do this.

I do think there's a decent chance someone would take on most of Eloy's contract if you were trying to clear the money. I would be ok with clearing that deal, but it's not a big move that improves them. 

Vaughn will be in his first arbitration season this year. There's no good reason to move him yet, he'll get paid like $2 million, his trade value is zero, and there's no one around pushing for 1b. For a rebuilding team with no real path to competing like the White Sox, there's no reason not to hold onto him for 1 more year, even if he has a 1/100 shot of breaking out, that's better than the chances you'd have if you played Sheets there. 

 

I’d stay with Vaughn and hope he gets better, he’s wasn’t horrible with 21 homers and 80 RBI, I was disappointed that he never figured out to lay off the low and away pitch, Robert early in the year was constantly striking out on the same pitch but he figured things out. As for Eloy, it’s time to say goodbye.

[chitownsportsfan]

Good arguments and after reading them I agree, look to trade Eloy, just keep Vaughn and hope he turns from a pumpkin into a prince. @The Mighty Mite with all due respect, the only number that matters for Vaughn is wRC+ and he finished at 103. 20HR from your butcher at 1B when he's not getting on base enough is nothing to write home about. RBIs, yea, maybe Hawk likes them still.

Edited October 4, 2023 by chitownsportsfan

[The Mighty Mite]

20 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Good arguments and after reading them I agree, look to trade Eloy, just keep Vaughn and hope he turns from a pumpkin into a prince. @The Mighty Mite with all due respect, the only number that matters for Vaughn is wRC+ and he finished at 103. 20HR from your butcher at 1B when he's not getting on base enough is nothing to write home about. RBIs, yea, maybe Hawk likes them still.

I’m sort of ancient and old school and still look at BA, Homers and Ribbies, lead the league in all 3 and you win the Triple Crown, I had to look up wRC+ and I’m still not sure what it means.

Edited October 4, 2023 by The Mighty Mite

[Lip Man 1]

3 minutes ago, The Mighty Mite said:

I’m sort of ancient and old school and still look at BA, Homers and Ribbies, lead the league in all 3 and you win the Triple Crown.

Without RBI's, you don't score...without scoring you don't win. 

[South Side Hit Men]

Player credits for RBI are lineup and baserunner dependent beyond an individual's home runs. Same issue with the current Pitcher win rule (should be the most effective pitcher, not the one in before/after the offense does it's thing (or doesn't for a pitcher loss)).

The only stat less credible than these two was the Game Winning RBI, an amalgamation of these two poor concepts. Thankfully these were placed in the dustbin of MLB history, but not before Harold Baines rode it into the BBHOF.

I am not saying scoring or preventing runs is not the goal of the game, just noting the emphasis on the importance of who gets credited for what.

I lay out the TWTW stat to mock these stats (player personal W/L record versus team W/L record). TWTW is also influenced by factors beyond a players' contribution. Bullpen pitchers used to protect leads will naturally have a high TWTW, same with defensive replacements placed late into games with a short lead. It doesn't necessarily mean they have a greater Will To Win than others used in different roles. Same with an injured or traded player who avoided the last two months of Sox baseball post deadline (or the player called up under these circumstances to play in mostly losses).

Edited October 4, 2023 by South Side Hit Men

[Balta1701]

11 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Without RBI's, you don't score...without scoring you don't win. 

Without baserunners you don't score. Vaughn's personal OBP would have come in 20th among 1b around baseball, the White Sox as a whole at 1b came in 23rd. 

The White Sox's 80 RBIs from 1b were good for 20th best in baseball. Their 20 home runs were good for 25th in baseball. Oakland got more HR from their 1b than the White Sox did. 

[Lip Man 1]

38 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Without baserunners you don't score. Vaughn's personal OBP would have come in 20th among 1b around baseball, the White Sox as a whole at 1b came in 23rd. 

The White Sox's 80 RBIs from 1b were good for 20th best in baseball. Their 20 home runs were good for 25th in baseball. Oakland got more HR from their 1b than the White Sox did. 

Different players have different roles. Guys in the middle of a good batting order are expected to drive in runs, getting on base a lot, and note I said a lot, shouldn't be the primary focus. 

That's ideally for the numbers 1-2-7-8-9 in a good lineup. Guys hitting 3-4-5-6 should be driving in runs be it with a home run or an extra base hit or getting guys home with less than two outs productively. .

[Balta1701]

56 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Different players have different roles. Guys in the middle of a good batting order are expected to drive in runs, getting on base a lot, and note I said a lot, shouldn't be the primary focus. 

That's ideally for the numbers 1-2-7-8-9 in a good lineup. Guys hitting 3-4-5-6 should be driving in runs be it with a home run or an extra base hit or getting guys home with less than two outs productively. .

 So your problem with Vaughn is that his RBI production isn't good enough for even an average 1b, that's a fair complaint.

[Bob Sacamano]

I feel like they’re going to trade one, keep one. Although I feel like like they’re probably going to cut money so maybe push hard for Eloy to be dealt.

[Balta1701]

18 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I feel like they’re going to trade one, keep one. Although I feel like like they’re probably going to cut money so maybe push hard for Eloy to be dealt.

If I had to guess what they will do - they'll add a handful of cheap but tolerable pieces elsewhere while pretending these guys are way better than they are, then declare themselves loudly to be competitive for the Central - exactly like they did this year. 

[greg775]

5 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

IMO I'd just trade both guys for whatever table scraps you can get and reboot.

I would as well. Of course no guarantee their replacements will be much better. Vaughn might actually deserve one more year in a Sox jersey. He ended up with 80 RBI and hit almost .260. 21 homers. I won't cry if he's dealt but he actually might look good in the lineup. Shoulda kept Burger as well. "On paper" TA, Burger, Eloy, Vaughn isn't horrific. But alas Burger is gone.

[kitekrazy]

Trade is a bad word Sox fans.  For a fan it's more emotional than rational.  You can't answer the "trade for what?"  The answer is "at least we don't have to deal with them". There's no logic in that.  You have hopes a GM doesn't see what we do.  That type of GM only belongs to the White Sox.  Chris Getz is another one.  How many GMs keep a 100 loss manager who is clueless.   Try that wheel of fortune again.  The bearings are rusted and always stops on fail.

 

 Trade is a bad word Sox fans. Trade is a bad word.. 

[kitekrazy]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

If I had to guess what they will do - they'll add a handful of cheap but tolerable pieces elsewhere while pretending these guys are way better than they are, then declare themselves loudly to be competitive for the Central - exactly like they did this year. 

and.....they'll all be in the bullpen

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, kitekrazy said:

and.....they'll all be in the bullpen

Naw, it's 100% mandatory that they add several starters. They literally don't have the warm bodies. This is the case regardless of what they think they're going to accomplish next offseason. 

[tray]

I'm old school and look at batting average first and home runs second with 1B / DH players,

Extrapolated season average hitting for Vaughn and Eloy from baseball reference:

Vaughn over three years  and 1493 ABs  hitting average is .256 with  21 HRs

Eloy over five  years and 1642 ABs hitting average is .275 with 33 HRs

Yes, Eloy has been on the injured list but a lot of that has been overblown, including surgery to get his appendix removed and a freak injury reaching to save a HR in ST. Also he is now a DH so the injury argument is largely inapplicable.

Athleticism:  Eloy is a tall player with some speed. Vaughn looks like he is boxing out with age and is already one of the slowest players in MLB.

Intangibles: Eloy is a character that some like or don't like for whatever their reasons might be, but he adds to the team and is a cheerleader for other players in the dugout.

Vaughn is more reserved which is fine. Neither player is a problem in the clubhouse.

Eloy appears to have better plate coverage. Vaughn still has issues hitting outside pitches and is repeatedly victimized by outside sliders with 2 strikes.

I would keep both players for one more year. There is much to do to improve this team that does not involve Eloy or Vaughn.

Edited October 5, 2023 by tray

[Balta1701]

12 minutes ago, tray said:

Neither player is a problem in the clubhouse.

After the last 2 years I'd say that asserting any player on the White Sox is not a clubhouse problem is a truly bold, bewildering statement. 

[Snopek]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

If I had to guess what they will do - they'll add a handful of cheap but tolerable pieces elsewhere while pretending these guys are way better than they are, then declare themselves loudly to be competitive for the Central - exactly like they did this year. 

This is the paint by numbers White Sox offseason. 

[Balta1701]

One more -

if these guys were fine offensively because of batting averages and home runs and RBIs and Robert was elite (actually true) and Burger was the best thing since meat was put between sliced bread, how was the White Sox’s offense so bad the whole year?