MLB Trade Rumors - Chicago White Sox Offseason Outlook - by Tim Dierkes

[South Side Hit Men]

Man Soo-Lee is in my Top Dozen people during my White Sox fandom.

Players Alpha Order

1. Jose Abreu
2. Harold Baines
3. Joe Crede
4. Billy Hamilton
5. Chet Lemon
6. Wilbur Wood

Non Players Alpha Order

1. Harry Caray
2. Ed Farmer *
3. Nancy Faust
4. Roland Hemond
5. Man Soo-Lee
6. Bill Veeck

* - Also liked him as a player, though he earned his Top 12 spot as an announcer.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

IDK where else to put this.  I just looked at Whitesox.com's depth chart and it lists Kopech as a bullpen piece.  I find that interesting.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

IDK where else to put this.  I just looked at Whitesox.com's depth chart and it lists Kopech as a bullpen piece.  I find that interesting.

Not right now, with the current roster and Cease on way out...makes zero sense unless they're going to make him closer, which also seems far-fetched with his control issues more vexing than Lopez even.

Motivational factor?

Edited November 28, 2023 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

IDK where else to put this.  I just looked at Whitesox.com's depth chart and it lists Kopech as a bullpen piece.  I find that interesting.

He finished 2023 in the bullpen.

[Bob Sacamano]

12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

He finished 2023 in the bullpen.

I also figured this is why. 

[JoeC]

45 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

He finished 2023 in the bullpen.

To add to this... it would cost money to update.

[caulfield12]

Cubs in on both Bieber and Glasnow...two pretty good comps for Cease value, albeit 10-15% lower in all likelihood in terms of 2024 projections.

Blue Jays looking to move on from last two years of Bichette at SS for the right price, Padres looking to dump one very expensive Soto year and at least get down to $200 million from their 2023 record payroll.

Edited November 29, 2023 by caulfield12

[fathom]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Cubs in on both Bieber and Glasnow...two pretty good comps for Cease value, albeit 10-15% lower in all likelihood in terms of 2024 projections.

Blue Jays looking to move on from last two years of Bichette at SS for the right price, Padres looking to dump one very expensive Soto year and at least get down to $200 million from their 2023 record payroll.

Terrible comp as Cease has an extra year, and he also didn’t have the health issues those two had last year 

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, fathom said:

Terrible comp as Cease has an extra year, and he also didn’t have the health issues those two had last year 

Those two have "big game" reputations during to past successes...Cease never even really earned his shot in 2020, so it's fair to say that Dylan is somewhere hovering around strong #2 in the average MLB rotation in terms of positioning, or even a  weak #1 like with the White Sox.

The Guardians really don't want to pay Bieber, so they're just as much interested in the savings as return.

Glasnow is far too injury prone...and that's always going to be a risk with Dylan considering the previous TJ and reliance on the slider as well as 1.5 MPH velocity drop in 2023.

 

If you have a great pitching coach, then there's much less hesitancy taking on Dylan.  And you also need to have a strong bullpen to cover those 3-4 innings at the end of nearly every Cease start.   That said, he's usually good for those 4+ to 6ish innings each start.

 

[ChiSox59]

2 hours ago, fathom said:

Terrible comp as Cease has an extra year, and he also didn’t have the health issues those two had last year 

Not only that, Glasnow is owed more in 24 than Cease will make in 24 and 25 combined. Perhaps by as much as like $5M. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by ChiSox59

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Not only that, Glasnow is owed more in 24 than Cease will make in 24 and 25 combined. Perhaps by as much as like $5M. 

Which playoff teams would have sent Cease out as their #1 starter in the postseason this year?

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Which playoff teams would have sent Cease out as their #1 starter in the postseason this year?

Versus the guy who has like a 25% chance of being healthy come October?  What point are you actually trying to make here?

[WestEddy]

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Which playoff teams would have sent Cease out as their #1 starter in the postseason this year?

Baltimore and Miami. Next question. 

[fathom]

7 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Baltimore and Miami. Next question. 

Dodgers

[Tnetennba]

15 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Versus the guy who has like a 25% chance of being healthy come October?  What point are you actually trying to make here?

Point? I don't he knows the meaning of the word.

[caulfield12]

9 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Point? I don't he knows (think he knows) the meaning of the word.

The Dodgers weren't going to start him over Kershaw this past year, despite Kershaw's postseason struggles.   And they normally would have had Buehler and Urias starting as well, not to mention the injured Gonsolin and May (will give you Dylan Cease over Bobby Miller).

Miami was without Alcantara, who's clearly their #1 despite a relatively down season for him statistically.

 

I guess we'll just have to wait and see if the team that acquires Cease (and he puts up another 4-4.50 ERA season) is actually going to start him in Game 1 in the post-season...ASSUMING THEIR #1-2-3 guys are unavailable for various reasons, lol.

The only time Cease has really performed as completely reliable and trustworthy TOR/ace starter was 2022.

 

 

[caulfield12]

35 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Baltimore and Miami. Next question. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bradiky01.shtml

You realize Kyle Bradish had an fWAR nearly double that of Dylan Cease, right?

 

Jesus Luzardo was definitely the better performer compared to Cease in 2023.

Game 1: Jesus Luzardo (10-9, 3.63 ERA)
Game 2: Braxton Garrett (9-7, 3.66 ERA)

[WestEddy]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

had an fWAR

Nobody cares about any of that. Dylan Cease was a veteran with playoff experience. 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

34 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bradiky01.shtml

You realize Kyle Bradish had an fWAR nearly double that of Dylan Cease, right?

 

Jesus Luzardo was definitely the better performer compared to Cease in 2023.

Game 1: Jesus Luzardo (10-9, 3.63 ERA)
Game 2: Braxton Garrett (9-7, 3.66 ERA)

Huh? Do you mean bWAR? Dylan's fWAR was only 0.1 lower than Bradish.

[caulfield12]

6 hours ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

Huh? Do you mean bWAR? Dylan's fWAR was only 0.1 lower than Bradish.

I guess bWAR is what BaseballReference uses…there are obviously significant differences between the two for pitchers.

[caulfield12]

6 hours ago, WestEddy said:

Nobody cares about any of that. Dylan Cease was a veteran with playoff experience. 

So was Luzardo, against the Sox in 2020.

[Bob Sacamano]

7 hours ago, WestEddy said:

Nobody cares about any of that. Dylan Cease was a veteran with playoff experience. 

A whopping 2.2 innings haha 

[Quin]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

I guess bWAR is what BaseballReference uses…there are obviously significant differences between the two for pitchers.

the b in bWAR stands for Baseball-Reference

the f in fWAR stands for FanGraphs

They calculate them slightly differently. FanGraphs uses FIP whereas BR uses RA9, so FanGraphs isn't gonna penalize a pitcher for some horrendous fielding.

[Tnetennba]

9 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

The Dodgers weren't going to start him over Kershaw this past year, despite Kershaw's postseason struggles.   And they normally would have had Buehler and Urias starting as well, not to mention the injured Gonsolin and May (will give you Dylan Cease over Bobby Miller).

Miami was without Alcantara, who's clearly their #1 despite a relatively down season for him statistically.

 

I guess we'll just have to wait and see if the team that acquires Cease (and he puts up another 4-4.50 ERA season) is actually going to start him in Game 1 in the post-season...ASSUMING THEIR #1-2-3 guys are unavailable for various reasons, lol.

The only time Cease has really performed as completely reliable and trustworthy TOR/ace starter was 2022.

 

 

Thanks for correcting a late night typo, that’s the most coherent bit of typing you’ve put forth in this entire thread. Congratulations.

Please enjoy dying on another asinine hill of your own making.  Cheers. 

[Quin]

38 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Thanks for correcting a late night typo, that’s the most coherent bit of typing you’ve put forth in this entire thread. Congratulations.

Please enjoy dying on another asinine hill of your own making.  Cheers. 

The hill that Cease isn't a top of the rotation starter, since 2021:

• 8th in fWAR
• 1st in games started
• 4th in K/9
• 22nd in FIP - so it could be better, but Snell is 21st and Gallen is 23rd
• 15th in wins, despite being on the Sox
• 20th in HR/9, ahead of Gallen, Rodon, Montgomery, Ohtani, etc. and just behind Bieber at 19th.