MLB Trade Rumors - Chicago White Sox Offseason Outlook - by Tim Dierkes

[WestEddy]

48 minutes ago, Quin said:

The hill that Cease isn't a top of the rotation starter, since 2021:

I'm not sure what's being argued. Sure, Cease doesn't inspire confidence like Pedro, Big Unit, Clemens, Maddux in their prime. He's no worse than a 2-3 on a good staff, and he's probably the best 'package' available, right now. I think you're arguing that. 

[South Side Hit Men]

What is scary is Oakland is projected to have a superior 2024 team even if the Sox kept Cease the entire season.

Colorado is projected worse than both (15.6), and the Nationals (22.3) better than the Sox but worse than Oakland.

Cease represents 36.4% of projected fWAR for the White Sox staff, with Soroka (1.2) the lone other pitcher projected over 0.7. 

Fangraphs 2024 Projections:

Oakland 27.5 fWAR

15.3 (Batters) 10.2 (Pitchers)

over

Chicago 21.5 fWAR

14.1 (Batters) 7.4 (Pitchers)

 

Bottom Ten 2023 fWAR Teams:

• 6.5 Colorado Rockies 59-103
• 8.4 Oakland Athletics 50-112
• 13.3 Chicago White Sox 61-101
• 15.0 Washington Nationals 71-91
• 18.9 Kansas City Royals 56-106
• 24.9 Detroit Tigers 78-84
• 25.0 Pittsburgh Pirates 76-86
• 27.4 Boston Red Sox 78-84
• 27.5 Los Angeles Angels 73-89
• 27.6 Miami Marlins 84-78

Edited November 29, 2023 by South Side Hit Men

[Quin]

26 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I'm not sure what's being argued. Sure, Cease doesn't inspire confidence like Pedro, Big Unit, Clemens, Maddux in their prime. He's no worse than a 2-3 on a good staff, and he's probably the best 'package' available, right now. I think you're arguing that. 

If there are 60 starting pitchers better than Dylan Cease in MLB, than the talent level in the league is absurd.

I'm basically arguing against the notion that he's not a top of the rotation starter. Even in his "down" season last year, he was 18th in fWAR, ahead of Burnes, Verlander, and Castillo.

[bmags]

3 minutes ago, Quin said:

If there are 60 starting pitchers better than Dylan Cease in MLB, than the talent level in the league is absurd.

I'm basically arguing against the notion that he's not a top of the rotation starter. Even in his "down" season last year, he was 18th in fWAR, ahead of Burnes, Verlander, and Castillo.

i don't think that's fair, he said no worse than 2-3 "on a good staff". I think that's how most people discuss being a 2. Certainly a number of baseball staffs have 5 pitchers better than the white sox current number 2.

I do think that's probably what I'd say for Dylan. At his best he can be a 1, but at his worst he still shows up to pitch and strikes a lotta boys out. That is not common.

 

[Tnetennba]

28 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I'm not sure what's being argued. Sure, Cease doesn't inspire confidence like Pedro, Big Unit, Clemens, Maddux in their prime. He's no worse than a 2-3 on a good staff, and he's probably the best 'package' available, right now. I think you're arguing that. 

I think the purported idea is that no serious playoff team would start Cease in game 1 of a post season series because he had a down season on a godawful team, and therefor doesn't have serious trade value. Which is an absurd notion and will be resoundingly debunked when he is in fact traded for a haul. Or at least that's what I've gleaned from the cursory attention I've paid to this thread.

[WestEddy]

21 minutes ago, Quin said:

I'm basically arguing against the notion that he's not a top of the rotation starter.

I don't disagree. My point is that, to the greater argument that seems to be happening, Cease is no worse than 3rd best on a very good staff. Every team doesn't have a "very good" rotation. He'd easily be the ace of a third of MLB teams, without even looking. 

[Quin]

7 minutes ago, bmags said:

i don't think that's fair, he said no worse than 2-3 "on a good staff". I think that's how most people discuss being a 2. Certainly a number of baseball staffs have 5 pitchers better than the white sox current number 2.

I do think that's probably what I'd say for Dylan. At his best he can be a 1, but at his worst he still shows up to pitch and strikes a lotta boys out. That is not common.

 

But what team is he a number 3 on other than like, the Phillies (Wheeler and Nola) and let's say...Seattle?

Maybe Houston if Verlander stays strong and Tampa if they keep Glasnow (so, likely not), but after that, there's not much argument for Cease being a #3.

[Quin]

Just now, WestEddy said:

I don't disagree. My point is that, to the greater argument that seems to be happening, Cease is no worse than 3rd best on a very good staff. Every team doesn't have a "very good" rotation. He'd easily be the ace of a third of MLB teams, without even looking. 

Ok, ignore my above post because I definitely misread you after prior posters arguing that Cease isn't even that.

[WestEddy]

17 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

no serious playoff team would start Cease in game 1 of a post season series because he had a down season on a godawful team, and therefor doesn't have serious trade value. Which is an absurd notion

Yes, I agree with this. Starter of game 1 is a meaningless label. Buehrle had the better numbers on the 2005 team, but Contreras was the hot hand, and thus, started all 3 game 1s. 

Cease, with 2 cheap years of control remaining, his near-Cy Young pedigree, his reliability and talent ceiling, presents as the best starting pitcher situation available right now. And he's going to command a huge return. 

[WestEddy]

8 minutes ago, Quin said:

there's not much argument for Cease being a #3.

I'm not arguing that Cease is a #3. My point is that Cease would be no worse than 3rd best pitcher in a very good rotation. Yes, you can use any of your examples as a staff he might be 3rd best on. On the White Sox, he's staff ace, right now. 

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Yes, I agree with this. Starter of game 1 is a meaningless label. Buehrle had the better numbers on the 2005 team, but Contreras was the hot hand, and thus, started all 3 game 1s. 

Cease, with 2 cheap years of control remaining, his near-Cy Young pedigree, his reliability and talent ceiling, presents as the best starting pitcher situation available right now. And he's going to command a huge return. 

That's because he was the best pitcher in baseball from late July 2005 until May of 2006 when he got hurt against Cincy fielding a ball on the infield.

Other than the Byrd game, pretty sure he lost only one game during that entire stretch and was statistically dominant with the forkball/fastball combo.

 

But many of the same things were said about Jose Quintana being a #2...totally different pitching styles, obviously.  The major difference is that Jose had established a very consistent baseline from 2012-2016/17.  Cease has/had the higher ceiling...of that there's no doubt.  But there's always risk associated with that much slider usage...and the velo drop. 

Conversely some will believe Cease (and Kopech for that matter) simply need to be provided a change of scenery/coaching staff and much better defense behind them.

Edited November 29, 2023 by caulfield12

[WestEddy]

15 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

If you have a great pitching coach, then there's much less hesitancy taking on Dylan.  And you also need to have a strong bullpen to cover those 3-4 innings at the end of nearly every Cease start.   That said, he's usually good for those 4+ to 6ish innings each start.

Suffice it to say, only teams that see themselves in the 2024 playoff picture are going to be kicking the tires on Cease. And those teams probably have faith in their coaching and training staffs to keep Cease on the field, and to wring out his best production. 

The White Sox aren't going to take a lesser package because of Cease's 2023 numbers, because another team will step in and offer what they want. There's no absolute value on players. It's based on the market at the time. 

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Suffice it to say, only teams that see themselves in the 2024 playoff picture are going to be kicking the tires on Cease. And those teams probably have faith in their coaching and training staffs to keep Cease on the field, and to wring out his best production. 

The White Sox aren't going to take a lesser package because of Cease's 2023 numbers, because another team will step in and offer what they want. There's no absolute value on players. It's based on the market at the time. 

And that's ultimately why Q went so high despite having that mid 4s ERA at the time of the trade...and differences in control as well.  I remember looking up his FIP after every single May/June start that year.

[WestEddy]

9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

And that's ultimately why Q went so high

I had Quintana's page open as I responded to you. He's not a statistical comp, but his situation parallel's Cease's. Solid, reliable arm with extra control beyond that year. I agree with you on this. 

 

[chitownsportsfan]

Cease is worth at least a top 50 guy, plus another top 100 guy, and then another couple a ball lottos. You sure as s%*# hold out for at least that return. If you have to wait until next summer, you wait. His value isn't going to decrease in that time, and at worst it will stay the same, with a good chance of increasing.

If you can restock with 4-5 top 100 guys (including Montgomery) maybe you can squint and see a decent team in 2025 with the right FA signings.

[WestEddy]

2 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Cease is worth at least a top 50 guy, plus another top 100 guy, and then another couple a ball lottos.

I'd be surprised if there wasn't about 5 of those packages on the table right now. Maybe even better. I would think that the only way Cease's value increases if he becomes a pitcher nobody even envisioned, like, dominant guy who takes a no-hitter into the 5th inning every other game, which I don't see happening. Or if the Dodgers lose another two starting pitchers before the break. 

 

[Snopek]

7 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Cease is worth at least a top 50 guy, plus another top 100 guy, and then another couple a ball lottos. You sure as s%*# hold out for at least that return. If you have to wait until next summer, you wait. His value isn't going to decrease in that time, and at worst it will stay the same, with a good chance of increasing.

If you can restock with 4-5 top 100 guys (including Montgomery) maybe you can squint and see a decent team in 2025 with the right FA signings.

What are you basing this on? Seems like a bit of a gamble

[Bob Sacamano]

21 minutes ago, Snopek said:

What are you basing this on? Seems like a bit of a gamble

Yeah, he could easily have a significant injury before then ha

Unload the $8.55M, get a couple of legit prospects, and use the money towards another SP.

Edited November 29, 2023 by Bob Sacamano

[Quin]

16 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Yeah, he could easily have a significant injury before then ha

Unload the $8.55M, get a couple of legit prospects, and use the money towards another SP.

Imagine the savings we could get with Danny Duffy and Brad Keller!

[chitownsportsfan]

43 minutes ago, Snopek said:

What are you basing this on? Seems like a bit of a gamble

it's a bit of a gamble, but Dylan seems pretty durable to me. TINSSAAPP and all that. Maybe there's like a 5% risk of significant value altering injury.

I do think after reading @WestEddy's post that there probably are several good offers on the table right now and that it might just be better to move him now. Among other things you'd clear a 40 man spot and some salary, might allow getz (lol, yea right) to make a good move on the margins that wouldn't otherwise be there.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

59 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Cease is worth at least a top 50 guy, plus another top 100 guy, and then another couple a ball lottos. You sure as s%*# hold out for at least that return. If you have to wait until next summer, you wait. His value isn't going to decrease in that time, and at worst it will stay the same, with a good chance of increasing.

If you can restock with 4-5 top 100 guys (including Montgomery) maybe you can squint and see a decent team in 2025 with the right FA signings.

yup

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

19 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I'd be surprised if there wasn't about 5 of those packages on the table right now. Maybe even better. I would think that the only way Cease's value increases if he becomes a pitcher nobody even envisioned, like, dominant guy who takes a no-hitter into the 5th inning every other game, which I don't see happening. Or if the Dodgers lose another two starting pitchers before the break. 

 

If I could envision trade negotiations now this is how I see it. It's a battle of 2022 vs 2023 Cease. Breakout year vs followup to breakout year. Who is he and what will he be ? Go out there everyday reliability vs. Are the innings pitched already hurting his stuff ? What do the Sox have to gain vs. what do they to lose if they hold onto him till the trade deadline ?

That last question not only pertains to Cease but other prospects in the Sox organization and the trade partner's prospects and also pitchers who will be available at the trade deadline.

Another half year for our prospects especially those in AA and AAA may provide clearer answers to our needs. I still think pitching and LH bats and good defense will or should be prioritized. Perhaps more power can be prioritized secondarily.

Will Baltimore become a player and can the Sox get what they want from the other teams ? I don't blame anyone for not being enamored with Dodger prospects. Do we really want the Sox to be trading for their future LH power hitting  1st  baseman now when one of your choices is the 26 yr. old Busch who the Dodgers would love to be a part of a Cease trade while he's still ranked as their 2nd best prosect ?

My take is Cease  will be traded but it may take a few more months. I also think the Sox include someone like Colas or Sosa, guys with talent but who have shown little plate discipline ability.

 For anyone wondering why Colas isn't in winter ball I'm pretty sure it's because he recently became a father.

 

[WestEddy]

59 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Who is he and what will he be ?

I'm pretty sure nobody's wondering this. Cease is a known entity. His value will never be greater. And he's available in a market where he is the most attractive starting pitcher because of years of control, cost control, reliability and cy young pedigree. And you also bring up that there aren't any unknown variables about this market - supply and demand are pretty much locked in. You're not worrying about injuries, losing streaks that make an ace available, etc. 

I'm not sure why a team would not act in such a favorable environment, and wait for future environment with so many variables, where even if they catch multiple inside straight cards, they're not guaranteed a much better return. 
 

[chitownsportsfan]

The offseason outlook:

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

8 hours ago, WestEddy said:

I'm pretty sure nobody's wondering this. Cease is a known entity. His value will never be greater. And he's available in a market where he is the most attractive starting pitcher because of years of control, cost control, reliability and cy young pedigree. And you also bring up that there aren't any unknown variables about this market - supply and demand are pretty much locked in. You're not worrying about injuries, losing streaks that make an ace available, etc. 

I'm not sure why a team would not act in such a favorable environment, and wait for future environment with so many variables, where even if they catch multiple inside straight cards, they're not guaranteed a much better return. 
 

Agree to disagree . A really good 1st half would be an indication that he can return to his Cy young caliber self, a 1st half like last year and now you are wondering is he a 4.50 ERA going forward. That won't work in the playoffs. The half year you gain or lose depending on how he pitches would make a big difference in his value. On the good side it might be slightly offset by  .5 season less of control but there are still 2 potential playoffs involved . If a team is fairly confident they can make the playoffs without having Cease in the 1st half of the season adding that #1 starter is now a super hot commodity .

Sure he's worth a lot right now and It looks like he'll be traded soon but I'm not convinced people are going to be happy with the return . There are already people wondering if he's traded in a week or two if they will get the kind of return that could be higher he they waited longer and the pitching market thinned out more especially from a team like Baltimore who doesn't want to spend money . I'm sure in the O's mind how Cease did last year and the direction his future takes are question marks. It would surely be brought up in any negotiations. It's their  job to try to get the Sox to take less based on any perceived negatives. The team that has less doubts will be the team that pays up.

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside