MLB Trade Rumors - Chicago White Sox Offseason Outlook - by Tim Dierkes

[Bob Sacamano]

Maybe even trade Cease and sign 4 guys. Although, if you do deal him, you probably just let Touki or Scholtens open the year in the 5th spot and hope Nastrini (or anyone…literally anyone) can make the jump to the MLB next year.

Edited October 12, 2023 by Bob Sacamano

[Y2Jimmy0]

4 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Bruce Levine can.

He rarely is correct about White Sox baseball, and hopefully he won't start being correct today.

The only way I want Perez here is if he is traded for Benintendi to shed two net contract years (2026-2027).

Whit Merrifield is another mid 30s guy who won't surpass a .700 OPS for the White Sox. The roster is full of this garbage.

Bruce Levine is very good friends with Gene Watson. It's very likely true. 

4 hours ago, fathom said:

The Sox absolutely are interested in Salvy. This has been obvious for a year now.  The price will be way higher than most think.

The White Sox are fucking idiots. Salvy Perez can't really catch anymore and he posted an 86 wRC+ last year with -0.3 fWAR. This whole thing is absurd. 

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Bruce Levine is very good friends with Gene Watson. It's very likely true. 

The White Sox are fucking idiots. Salvy Perez can't really catch anymore and he posted an 86 wRC+ last year with -0.3 fWAR. This whole thing is absurd. 

Well no one ever dispute that.

Edit: would actually love to see people try

Edited October 12, 2023 by Bob Sacamano

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Yeah, you’re basically declining TA option (or picking it up and hoping he’s the same guy he was 2 years ago) and hoping you get lucky on like 7-8 other signings and everything clicks, like 2005.

They had a strong core in 2004 (Konerko, Crede, Thomas, Rowand, Buehrle, Garcia, Contreras, Garland).

If they got lucky with seven plus low cost veteran signings in 2024, you’re looking at an 80-85 win season, and early playoff exit. That’s the size of the current hole. If these rumors are true, Jerry, Getz and Pedro are determined to fill the hole with a bunch of dying Royal carcasses.

 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

12 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Bruce Levine is very good friends with Gene Watson. It's very likely true. 

He's a couple weeks on a new job so the first thing he does is run to Levineline to tell him what they intend to do?

[Y2Jimmy0]

4 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

He's a couple weeks on a new job so the first thing he does is run to Levineline to tell him what they intend to do?

No idea but Watson has always been part of the old boys club so possibly. I hope Levine is making it up. I doubt it though. 

[Balta1701]

46 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Maybe even trade Cease and sign 4 guys. Although, if you do deal him, you probably just let Touki or Scholtens open the year in the 5th spot and hope Nastrini (or anyone…literally anyone) can make the jump to the MLB next year.

Dylan Cease is coming off such a bad season that if I were an opposing GM I’d expect him at a large discount. You are not getting anywhere near two top prospects and additional pieces for him right now, especially since his down season also saw a drop in his velocity. There’s almost no harm in waiting to the trade deadline with him right now, he might not be as good as he was in 2022 but he probably will be better than he was in 2023. 

[Chicago White Sox]

Imagine this whopper of a lineup (wRC+):

1. Benintendi, LF* (87)
2. Anderson, SS (60)
3. Robert, CF (128)
4. Jimenez, DH (105)
5. Moncada, 3B# (98)
6. Vaughn, 1B (103)
7. Colas, RF* (53)
8. Perez, CA (86)
9. Merrifield, 2B (93)

Absolutely wild how badly they fucked this up and how hilarious it is they think that Perez or Merrifield are the answers for anything.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Dylan Cease is coming off such a bad season that if I were an opposing GM I’d expect him at a large discount. You are not getting anywhere near two top prospects and additional pieces for him right now. There’s almost no harm in waiting to the trade deadline with him right now, he might not be as good as he was in 2022 but he probably will be better than he was in 2023. 

He was ~0.7 fWAR worse than his previous two seasons, so not sure I’d call it “such a terrible season” or believe he’s lost significant trade value.

[Balta1701]

56 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

He was ~0.7 fWAR worse than his previous two seasons, so not sure I’d call it “such a terrible season” or believe he’s lost significant trade value.

He was -4 rWAR lower than 2022 last year though. Decreased velocity and a notably down K rate.

His exit velocity shot up, and was as bad as in 2020 when they benched him for the playoffs. A lot of this was the slider being hit harder. Is that just bad luck, or were people able to stay on it better with a weaker fastball? His expected ERA last year was 4.07, which is 50th percentile in the league, because he was really bad on exit velocity. I’m not risking a huge bet on it being bad luck alone if I’m an opposing GM, not unless I can see things work better next year or I get a huge price drop.

Since fWAR doesn’t take exit velocity into account, it is probably seeing a jump in his BABIP and thinking it’s bad luck, so small difference in fWAR. But the exit  velocity jump would cause a higher BABIP, so the higher hit rate last year wouldn’t be all bad luck, it was significantly performance driven.

[Eminor3rd]

I don’t believe this rumor. Maybe Bruce is reporting on old news from the deadline, but Getz seems like he actually hired a few people that are kind of smart — and while I don’t think that will make any difference in fixing the twins dysfunctions of completely useless player development and an impossible set of constraints in free agency, I refuse to believe they all got in a room and decided they should target Salvador fucking Perez in 2023. 

[Quin]

The one thing giving me comfort is that Bruce Levine can't even be bothered to get player's ages correct, so he might have just heard people talking about Carlos Perez at catcher and Terrell Tatum and was like "Perez! Merrifield! A Royals connection!"

Meanwhile, if this is true, Chris Getz is aiming to make the Mark Teahen trade somehow worse.

[oneofthemikes]

I don’t get this organization’s obsession with the Royals. If we’re going to rummage around in the scraps of another team, wouldn’t we at least be looking at a team that won regularly?

[bmags]

5 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

I don’t believe this rumor. Maybe Bruce is reporting on old news from the deadline, but Getz seems like he actually hired a few people that are kind of smart — and while I don’t think that will make any difference in fixing the twins dysfunctions of completely useless player development and an impossible set of constraints in free agency, I refuse to believe they all got in a room and decided they should target Salvador fucking Perez in 2023. 

I’ve done too much of this thinking. We’ll see.

Again, I would still come out net positive for Getz if the cost of getting a real operation in the minors/intl is getting a bunch of old players Pedro and Jerry can be friends with. 
 

But not positive enough to succeed. Can’t think of too many playoff teams right now that weren’t trying to be good at all facets of team building,

[bmags]

1 minute ago, oneofthemikes said:

I don’t get this organization’s obsession with the Royals. If we’re going to rummage around in the scraps of another team, wouldn’t we at least be looking at a team that won regularly?

When you are old the passing of time is different. Royals were a hell of a team in the 80s when Jerry last paid attention to baseball. 

[reiks12]

If this happens viewership will drop another 40%

[Y2Jimmy0]

6 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

I don’t believe this rumor. Maybe Bruce is reporting on old news from the deadline, but Getz seems like he actually hired a few people that are kind of smart — and while I don’t think that will make any difference in fixing the twins dysfunctions of completely useless player development and an impossible set of constraints in free agency, I refuse to believe they all got in a room and decided they should target Salvador fucking Perez in 2023. 

These supposedly smart people are totally fine with the baseball version of Jim Boylen managing the club in 2024. It’s a disaster 

[bmags]

5 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

These supposedly smart people are totally fine with the baseball version of Jim Boylen managing the club in 2024. It’s a disaster 

It is amazing. The most honest thing a manager can say is that they can succeed with the right players. 
 

But they all mean if they have great players and you know, that work hard.

Grifol is the first that is convinced he can succeed if he just gets his old pals from his 65 win teams.

[T R U]

12 hours ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Bryce Harper at $25M a year looks pretty damn good right now compared to *maybe* paying Sal Perez $21M a year. Makes no sense they didn’t pursue him harder that one off-season. Was a better fit than Machado. Sigh.

If they could have landed Harper and Wheeler I think it changes the fortunes of this franchise massively. Harper especially.

[Tony]

3 hours ago, oneofthemikes said:

I don’t get this organization’s obsession with the Royals. If we’re going to rummage around in the scraps of another team, wouldn’t we at least be looking at a team that won regularly?

2011: Royals 71-91 (11-7 against Sox)

2012: Royals 72-90 (12-6 against Sox)

2013: Royals 86-76 (10-9 against Sox)

2014: Royals 89-73 (13-6 against Sox)

2015: Royals 95-67 (12-7 against Sox)

2016: Royals 81-81 (14-5 against Sox)

2017 Royals 80-82 (9-10 against Sox)

2018 Royals 58-104 (8-11 against Sox)

2019 Royals 59-103 (10-9 against Sox)

2021 Royals 74-88 (10-9 against Sox)

2022 Royals 65-97 (10-9 against Sox)

2023 Royals 56-106 (7-6 against Sox)

 

That's why. 

[ChiSox59]

12 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Dylan Cease is coming off such a bad season that if I were an opposing GM I’d expect him at a large discount. You are not getting anywhere near two top prospects and additional pieces for him right now, especially since his down season also saw a drop in his velocity. There’s almost no harm in waiting to the trade deadline with him right now, he might not be as good as he was in 2022 but he probably will be better than he was in 2023. 

Cease's "such a bad season" was still worth 3.7 fWAR (9th among AL SP) with 214 Ks (5th in AL).  Cease took a solid step in the wrong direction in 2023, but this is still a top shelf SP with 2 years of arb control (MLBTR estimate for 24 of $8.8M). Cease's value is still tremendous; it definitely depends one one's definition of "top prospects" but Cease most certainly can still return a top 30 type centerpiece and a backhalf top 100 piece, IMO.  

That being said, I do think the Sox will hold Cease and see what 2024 brings, and move him at the TDL if need be.  

[Lip Man 1]

https://soxmachine.com/2023/10/white-sox-rumors-salvador-perez-whit-merrifield-a-little-too-obvious/

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Cease's "such a bad season" was still worth 3.7 fWAR (9th among AL SP) with 214 Ks (5th in AL).  Cease took a solid step in the wrong direction in 2023, but this is still a top shelf SP with 2 years of arb control (MLBTR estimate for 24 of $8.8M). Cease's value is still tremendous; it definitely depends one one's definition of "top prospects" but Cease most certainly can still return a top 30 type centerpiece and a backhalf top 100 piece, IMO.  

That being said, I do think the Sox will hold Cease and see what 2024 brings, and move him at the TDL if need be.  

 

14 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

He was -4 rWAR lower than 2022 last year though. Decreased velocity and a notably down K rate.

His exit velocity shot up, and was as bad as in 2020 when they benched him for the playoffs. A lot of this was the slider being hit harder. Is that just bad luck, or were people able to stay on it better with a weaker fastball? His expected ERA last year was 4.07, which is 50th percentile in the league, because he was really bad on exit velocity. I’m not risking a huge bet on it being bad luck alone if I’m an opposing GM, not unless I can see things work better next year or I get a huge price drop.

Since fWAR doesn’t take exit velocity into account, it is probably seeing a jump in his BABIP and thinking it’s bad luck, so small difference in fWAR. But the exit  velocity jump would cause a higher BABIP, so the higher hit rate last year wouldn’t be all bad luck, it was significantly performance driven.

 

[Quin]

I mean maybe Baltimore panics after that ALCS

[pcq]

7 hours ago, bmags said:

I’ve done too much of this thinking. We’ll see.

Again, I would still come out net positive for Getz if the cost of getting a real operation in the minors/intl is getting a bunch of old players Pedro and Jerry can be friends with. 
 

But not positive enough to succeed. Can’t think of too many playoff teams right now that weren’t trying to be good at all facets of team building,

Make Salvy player-manager but also give him Tim's locker for his uniform. This would be a blockbuster deal. Make Pedro valet-attendant.