MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Arbitration Salaries

[Bob Sacamano]

MLBTR came out with their projected arb salaries for 2024. Usually pretty close.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2024.html

Clint Frazier: $900k

Dylan Cease: $8.8M

Michael Kopech: $3.6M

Trayce Thompson: $1.7M

Matt Foster: $740k

Touki Toussaint: $1.7M

Garrett Crochet: $900k

Andrew Vaughn: $3.7M

Of this group, I would guess Frazier and Thompson are non-tendered. Probably Foster too.

Edited October 6, 2023 by Bob Sacamano

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Yea Istill dont understand why they took Thompson in the trade rather than some flyer on a guy in the DSL. I'm not sure they non tender him if they got him to be a viable 4th OF . But that was under the Hahn regime  so perhaps he will be non tendered under Getz.

[Balta1701]

I can't believe Crochet is already arb-eligible. They did not use his pre-arb years particularly well.

Personally I wouldn't pay that for Toussaint either. 

[wegner]

I honestly had forgotten about Frazier....my apologies Clint.

[Bob Sacamano]

15 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I can't believe Crochet is already arb-eligible. They did not use his pre-arb years particularly well.

Personally I wouldn't pay that for Toussaint either. 

Going to be tough to add 3 starters (assuming they move on from Clevinger. I don’t think they will add much payroll. They may even get him for less than that but you can have him be the 5th starter or move to long reliever if someone emerges from the minors.

[GreenSox]

22 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I can't believe Crochet is already arb-eligible. They did not use his pre-arb years particularly well.

Personally I wouldn't pay that for Toussaint either. 

I would pay it for both of them, especially Crochet.  Crochet has real talent

Clint Frazier, on the other hand....

If they don't pay for Touki, they'll pay $10 million for a "proven veteran" fifth-starter type who is no better than Touki is.

Edited October 6, 2023 by GreenSox

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Going to be tough to add 3 starters (assuming they move on from Clevinger. I don’t think they will add much payroll. They may even get him for less than that but you can have him be the 5th starter or move to long reliever if someone emerges from the minors.

I can't say what they will do...but they absolutely do have room to add significant salary if they want to. Their payroll right now is somewhere close to $100 million, depending on exact arb numbers and such, and that's quite low for them. When they were "competing" in 2015-2016 they pushed to over $120 million, and when they were "Competing" in 2022 and 2023 they pushed their payroll to $190 and $180 million. I would expect something of a payroll drop since attendance, ratings, and presumably advertising sales have collapsed, but even a payroll of $140 million leaves them with tens of millions of dollars to spend. 

[Bob Sacamano]

41 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I can't say what they will do...but they absolutely do have room to add significant salary if they want to. Their payroll right now is somewhere close to $100 million, depending on exact arb numbers and such, and that's quite low for them. When they were "competing" in 2015-2016 they pushed to over $120 million, and when they were "Competing" in 2022 and 2023 they pushed their payroll to $190 and $180 million. I would expect something of a payroll drop since attendance, ratings, and presumably advertising sales have collapsed, but even a payroll of $140 million leaves them with tens of millions of dollars to spend. 

I have them at around $135M right now, but that includes the arb projections, Clevinger and TA's 2024 amounts, and the final year of Leury Garcia's contract.

Edit: my sources are MLB TR for the arb numbers and the rest is Spotrac.

Edited October 6, 2023 by Bob Sacamano

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I have them at around $135M right now, but that includes the arb projections, Clevinger and TA's 2024 amounts, and the final year of Leury Garcia's contract.

Edit: my sources are MLB TR for the arb numbers and the rest is Spotrac.

Are you counting Hendriks or assuming they opt out of that? If you opt out of Anderson, Hendriks, and Clevinger, they're at $102 million before pre-arb guys. If you keep Anderson (my guess is they keep him), they're at $115. I wouldn't be surprised if they found a way to turn Hendriks's option into a 2 year deal that keeps him around a little bit longer, and that might take this starting point over $120 million, but there's still a ton of money to spend here.

[South Side Hit Men]

I realize most on Soxtalk hate Andrew Vaughn, but I hope he is rewarded, had a decent season (1.0 bWAR) and like Pito wants to play every single game.

Then I look at Kopech and Crochet and think WTF.

Trayce Thompson is the only non Robert capable of fielding CF on the 40 man. I believe the thought was Colas could cover in CF on Luis’ off days. Hope Getz can rectify that, bring in a solid fourth OF who can play CF and RF and hit better than .600 OPS, preferably in the .700s.

[Bob Sacamano]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Are you counting Hendriks or assuming they opt out of that? If you opt out of Anderson, Hendriks, and Clevinger, they're at $102 million before pre-arb guys. If you keep Anderson (my guess is they keep him), they're at $115. I wouldn't be surprised if they found a way to turn Hendriks's option into a 2 year deal that keeps him around a little bit longer, and that might take this starting point over $120 million, but there's still a ton of money to spend here.

Ah I’m also counting anyone Spotrac lists which includes all the pre-arb guys too.

[South Side Hit Men]

1 hour ago, wegner said:

I honestly had forgotten about Frazier....my apologies Clint.

It’s Janet, it’s Jackson if you’re nasty.

Turned out to be a joke, like his time with the White Sox.

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/rangers/2023/02/19/why-former-top-pick-clint-frazier-chose-the-rangers-to-help-get-his-swing-back-on-track/

Quote

SURPRISE, Ariz. – Clint Frazier hopes he has rediscovered his identity.

It started with going back to his given name after spending part of last season being referred to as “Jackson,” his middle name. The Jackson thing, he said, was a joke that just went too far. Now, the next step is to rediscover the swing that made him the fifth overall pick in the 2013 draft and a top prospect in the Yankees organization.

 

[Quin]

I definitely see Touki being retained, with an offseason fluff piece about Bannister sending him to a pitching lab and unlocking his potential.

[wegner]

27 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

It’s Janet, it’s Jackson if you’re nasty.

Turned out to be a joke, like his time with the White Sox.

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/rangers/2023/02/19/why-former-top-pick-clint-frazier-chose-the-rangers-to-help-get-his-swing-back-on-track/

 

Who the hell does he think he is? Yolmer Sanchez?? I knew Carlos Sanchez, he was a friend of mine, you sir are no Carlos Sanchez.

[Bob Sacamano]

32 minutes ago, Quin said:

I definitely see Touki being retained, with an offseason fluff piece about Bannister sending him to a pitching lab and unlocking his potential.

Yeah, they're not going to sign 3 veteran starters to fill the rotation at $10-15M each. I think Touki is a safe bet back and maybe less than that $1.7 figure. 

[ChiSox59]

Nearly certain to be rostered: Moncada, Benintendi, Jimenez, Robert, Bummer, Crochet, Cease, Touki, Kopech = $86.5M (9 players)

Options likely to be exercised: TA = $14M

Dead contracts: Leury & Liam (assuming Sox buy him out) = $7M

Options I think will be exercised: Clevinger: $12M 

= $119.5M for 11 players.  Filling out the roster with pre-arb guys = ~$11.5M = $131M total 

If TA is bought out and Clevinger opts out of his side, its more like $105M. 

Regardless of what happens with TA, Liam and Clevinger, the Sox should have plenty of money to spend if JR allows it. 

Edited October 6, 2023 by ChiSox59

[Balta1701]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Are you counting Hendriks or assuming they opt out of that? If you opt out of Anderson, Hendriks, and Clevinger, they're at $102 million before pre-arb guys. If you keep Anderson (my guess is they keep him), they're at $115. I wouldn't be surprised if they found a way to turn Hendriks's option into a 2 year deal that keeps him around a little bit longer, and that might take this starting point over $120 million, but there's still a ton of money to spend here.

 

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Nearly certain to be rostered: Moncada, Benintendi, Jimenez, Robert, Bummer, Crochet, Cease, Touki, Kopech = $86.5M (9 players)

Options likely to be exercised: TA = $14M

Dead contracts: Leury & Liam (assuming Sox buy him out) = $7M

Options I think will be exercised: Clevinger: $12M 

= $119.5M for 11 players.  Filling out the roster with pre-arb guys = ~$11.5M = $131M total 

If TA is bought out and Clevinger opts out of his side, its more like $105M. 

Regardless of what happens with TA, Liam and Clevinger, the Sox should have plenty of money to spend if JR allows it. 

As is typical in the offseason, somewhere I think you're missing a few million, if Clevinger is retained and goes to $12 million I would have them at $123 million before the arb guys, (not counting $1 million for Abreu that was deferred in his last deal). This doesn't change the conclusion that they have money to spend. 

[Chicago White Sox]

4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I can't believe Crochet is already arb-eligible. They did not use his pre-arb years particularly well.

Personally I wouldn't pay that for Toussaint either. 

We have 1 1/2 SPs and only a couple relievers…$1.7M for Touki is probably a no-brainer.

[ChiSox59]

15 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

 

As is typical in the offseason, somewhere I think you're missing a few million, if Clevinger is retained and goes to $12 million I would have them at $123 million before the arb guys, (not counting $1 million for Abreu that was deferred in his last deal). This doesn't change the conclusion that they have money to spend. 

Are you including Moncada’s 2025 option buyout? Those figures I quoted are the guaranteed annual salaries for 2024 + MLBTRs arb estimates + dead money to Leury and $1.5M to Liam. I wasn’t including signing bonuses spread amongst contract term for luxury tax purposes or Abreus $1M, so maybe that was the difference. 

[South Side Hit Men]

4 hours ago, wegner said:

Who the hell does he think he is? Yolmer Sanchez?? I knew Carlos Sanchez, he was a friend of mine, you sir are no Carlos Sanchez.

I only found out about it looking at White Sox stats on Fangraphs where I take it they didn’t learn about his change of heart and listed him as Jackson Frazier. I was like who the hell is this?

They changed his name back to Clint Frazier before the season ended, but the link to Jackson Frazier remains.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jackson-frazier/15983/stats?position=OF&season=2020

 

[wegner]

57 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

I only found out about it looking at White Sox stats on Fangraphs where I take it they didn’t learn about his change of heart and listed him as Jackson Frazier. I was like who the hell is this?

They changed his name back to Clint Frazier before the season ended, but the link to Jackson Frazier remains.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jackson-frazier/15983/stats?position=OF&season=2020

 

If he stays in Charlotte, he should use Jackson.....then Getz might accidentally call him up not realizing who he really is.

Clint Frazier arbitration offer.....$450,000

Jackson Frazier arbitration offer....$600,000