2024 Offseason Plan - "Try" to Compete Edition

[ChiSox59]

You are Chris Getz. You've been handed a job you probably didn't deserve. JR wants a winner, but he also wants the roster to have a new complexion.  JR has given you a 2024 budget similar to that of the offseasons of 22-23; $190M max on opening day 2024.  The current payroll projection filling the team with league min players is $112M.  

Clevinger just declined his side of the option, and you've bought out TA and Liam.  Build me your squad that is at least afloat in the AL Central race in 2024. 

 

[Tony]

[caulfield12]

Even if Colson is the equivalent of Corey Seager…they’re miles and miles from competing, not unlike the current Royals with Witt, Jr.

It’s not going to get done without Rangers level of spending, as most of that core was already in place…and the budget’s going to be far closer to $112 million than the $180-195 million we’d all prefer to see allocated, if done intelligently.

[Chicago White Sox]

I plan to attempt this at some point today, but $78M to address all our holes seems impossible.  Hahn really fucked this org so badly.

[poppysox]

I would focus on speed and defense.  Those skills are much cheaper to attain than power bats.  A return to go-go White Sox is fun to watch and within our probable budget.

[Tnetennba]

 

[hi8is]

Not possible.

[Timmy U]

23 minutes ago, poppysox said:

I would focus on speed and defense.  Those skills are much cheaper to attain than power bats.  A return to go-go White Sox is fun to watch and within our probable budget.

Maybe it's possible?  The Brewers and the Diamondbacks didn't hit a ton of HR and they still made the playoffs, but of the top 10 in HR 7 made the playoffs including 7 of the top 8. Only the Angels missed. RH was not wrong, ball go far, team go far.

[Vote4Pedro]

29 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Not possible.

Not even in this weak AL Central as they like to constantly claim they are apart of. 
 

Brooks Boyer motto for the White Sox 2024 season should be: 2024…Flush it 

Edited November 5, 2023 by Vote4Pedro

[Balta1701]

29 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

Maybe it's possible?  The Brewers and the Diamondbacks didn't hit a ton of HR and they still made the playoffs, but of the top 10 in HR 7 made the playoffs including 7 of the top 8. Only the Angels missed. RH was not wrong, ball go far, team go far.

Both of them were at the middle of the pack in OBP so the White Sox would somehow need to climb out of their pit on that number.

Both oF them were decent to good on pitching so there’s another thing missing.

And per Fangraphs; they were the #1 and #3 teams in baseball defensively. The White Sox were 30th. 

[Chicago White Sox]

Honestly, there is no path to compete next year.  And as such, I’m going to outline my “do the right thing” plan which is entirely focused on being good again by 2027.  High-level, this means punting the 2024 season (despite the lack of draft pick upside) and then using 2025 as a transition year for development.

At a conceptual level, I will avoid calling up my big three positional prospects (Montgomery, Ramos, & Quero) until 2025.  It just doesn’t make sense to burn any service time this year and I’d rather have them all hit in a more condensed window.  The SP & RP pitching prospects in the upper minors are a completely different story though.  Pitching is simply too volatile and injuries can happen at any time, so whenever those guys are ready for a shot they should get one.

So beyond that one guiding principle, here are the rest of my strategic priorities for the off-season:

1. Trade Dylan Cease if a quality offer is there, otherwise hold to deadline
2. Only sign free agents to one year deals unless they are young and/or are greatly underrated by the market (team options are obviously ok)
3. With rental free agents, prioritize ceiling over floor and hope those who actually work out can be flipped at the deadline for something of value
4. Explore trades for Moncada & Eloy, but only deal them if it makes sense
5. Leverage our open 40 man roster and acquire players with upside who may fall victim of being in stronger orgs with no space (Rule 5 as well)
6. Once they are ready, prioritize playing time for our B / C tier prospects over any low ceiling vets (such as Sosa, Rodriguez, Colas, Lee, etc.)

I still need to work through the specific names, but ultimately it’s all going to look very ugly for the 2024 season.  The most important thing is to admit defeat and acknowledge there is no hope for next year.  Only by doing that, can you identify the moves needed to right the ship by 2026.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

The first player Getz should sign is Tommy Pham.  The Sox haven't had a red ass player since AJ and Pham is an all-time red ass.  He'll turn that clubhouse around on day one.  

[Soxfest]

Another 100 loss season looks to be attainable. Free agent class is bad, JR is cheap and Getz is a deer in headlights. This is a complete fiasco. Get your tickets now!

Edited November 5, 2023 by Soxfest

[wegner]

Your 2024 White Sox....Short lines & sit wherever you want.....White Sox, White Sox, Go Go White Sox!!!

[chw42]

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

The first player Getz should sign is Tommy Pham.  The Sox haven't had a red ass player since AJ and Pham is an all-time red ass.  He'll turn that clubhouse around on day one.  

Just don't let him start a team fantasy football league.

[SonofaRoache]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Honestly, there is no path to compete next year.  And as such, I’m going to outline my “do the right thing” plan which is entirely focused on being good again by 2027.  High-level, this means punting the 2024 season (despite the lack of draft pick upside) and then using 2025 as a transition year for development.

At a conceptual level, I will avoid calling up my big three positional prospects (Montgomery, Ramos, & Quero) until 2025.  It just doesn’t make sense to burn any service time this year and I’d rather have them all hit in a more condensed window.  The SP & RP pitching prospects in the upper minors are a completely different story though.  Pitching is simply too volatile and injuries can happen at any time, so whenever those guys are ready for a shot they should get one.

So beyond that one guiding principle, here are the rest of my strategic priorities for the off-season:

1. Trade Dylan Cease if a quality offer is there, otherwise hold to deadline
2. Only sign free agents to one year deals unless they are young and/or are greatly underrated by the market (team options are obviously ok)
3. With rental free agents, prioritize ceiling over floor and hope those who actually work out can be flipped at the deadline for something of value
4. Explore trades for Moncada & Eloy, but only deal them if it makes sense
5. Leverage our open 40 man roster and acquire players with upside who may fall victim of being in stronger orgs with no space (Rule 5 as well)
6. Once they are ready, prioritize playing time for our B / C tier prospects over any low ceiling vets (such as Sosa, Rodriguez, Colas, Lee, etc.)

I still need to work through the specific names, but ultimately it’s all going to look very ugly for the 2024 season.  The most important thing is to admit defeat and acknowledge there is no hope for next year.  Only by doing that, can you identify the moves needed to right the ship by 2026.

Good luck having a fanbase doing this. We couldn't make a rebuild work when the stars aligned for us with trade chips, big spenders being out on Harper/Machado, weak division, added playoff teams, and Robert in his prime. The truth is the Cubs may steal half of our fan base if not more. Sox fans are really done this time. 

[Highland]

I've never seen a Sox team in a position like this. Anything can be an improvement, but no one can predict when and if this team can turn things around. Money has to be spent, a lot of money has to be spent, and that is not likely.

[The Mighty Mite]

2 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

The first player Getz should sign is Tommy Pham.  The Sox haven't had a red ass player since AJ and Pham is an all-time red ass.  He'll turn that clubhouse around on day one.  

Tommy Pham is one of the most intense players I’ve ever seen since I became a Sox fan in 1952, I’m OK with him on the team, the thing is I don’t understand why he can’t stay anywhere very long.

[Lip Man 1]

24 minutes ago, Highland said:

I've never seen a Sox team in a position like this. Anything can be an improvement, but no one can predict when and if this team can turn things around. Money has to be spent, a lot of money has to be spent, and that is not likely.

It will improve when new ownership arrives.

[poppysox]

3 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

The first player Getz should sign is Tommy Pham.  The Sox haven't had a red ass player since AJ and Pham is an all-time red ass.  He'll turn that clubhouse around on day one.  

He is a little old (35) for my taste but as a FA he will only cost money.  I like the idea the more I think about him though.

[Saufley]

53 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

It will improve when new ownership arrives.

I don't want to have to wait that long.

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Honestly, there is no path to compete next year.  And as such, I’m going to outline my “do the right thing” plan which is entirely focused on being good again by 2027.  High-level, this means punting the 2024 season (despite the lack of draft pick upside) and then using 2025 as a transition year for development.

At a conceptual level, I will avoid calling up my big three positional prospects (Montgomery, Ramos, & Quero) until 2025.  It just doesn’t make sense to burn any service time this year and I’d rather have them all hit in a more condensed window.  The SP & RP pitching prospects in the upper minors are a completely different story though.  Pitching is simply too volatile and injuries can happen at any time, so whenever those guys are ready for a shot they should get one.

So beyond that one guiding principle, here are the rest of my strategic priorities for the off-season:

1. Trade Dylan Cease if a quality offer is there, otherwise hold to deadline
2. Only sign free agents to one year deals unless they are young and/or are greatly underrated by the market (team options are obviously ok)
3. With rental free agents, prioritize ceiling over floor and hope those who actually work out can be flipped at the deadline for something of value
4. Explore trades for Moncada & Eloy, but only deal them if it makes sense
5. Leverage our open 40 man roster and acquire players with upside who may fall victim of being in stronger orgs with no space (Rule 5 as well)
6. Once they are ready, prioritize playing time for our B / C tier prospects over any low ceiling vets (such as Sosa, Rodriguez, Colas, Lee, etc.)

I still need to work through the specific names, but ultimately it’s all going to look very ugly for the 2024 season.  The most important thing is to admit defeat and acknowledge there is no hope for next year.  Only by doing that, can you identify the moves needed to right the ship by 2026.

So continuing forward with this, I’m going to first focus on the rotation and the broader plan there.  My hope is that Cease is moved this off-season (ideally for positional prospects) and that would essentially leave us with one starter in Kopech.  Looking inward first, we do have a lot of pitching prospects that are going to begin their 2024 seasons in the upper minors.  Nastrani is probably the closest to the majors, but Mena, Eder, Cannon, Bush, and several others have a shot at being ready at some point.  That being said, we should build up enough pitching depth so we don’t have to rush any of these young arms.  Let them come up when they prove they are ready for an extended shot.

Based on the above, that means we need to add three legit starters that we can pencil into the rotation.  Given we are punting the 2024 season, I’m actually ok with a hodge-podge of lesser candidates competing for the #5 spot.  Touki wasn’t great last year, but he did put up solid back-end numbers over his last six outings and at a minimum he can be a solid swing-man on the cheap.  He’d enter camp as my favorite for the #5 job, although I’d have him compete against whatever lottery ticket arms we end up taking fliers on (and we should pick up several more guys like him, Patiño, García, Honeywell, etc.).  Doesn’t sound like Davis Martin will be ready right away, but he’d be the guy I’d plan on giving this role to in the second half if Touki doesn’t appear to be the guy.

So with two spots technically filled, it’s time to get to the meat of the rotation.  To start, I’d be looking at one year deals for two guys who were unproductive or hurt for the Yankees this past season:  Luis Severino & Frankie Montas.  The former made 18 starts for the Yankees this year and was absolutely terrible, but may have had some bad HR luck and could be a change of scenery guy.  What’s promising is he was very good in 2022 and his pure stuff last year doesn’t appear to be radically different.  I’d offer him a 1/$12M deal and try to tack on a team option for 2025 at $20M in exchange for a buyout of $3M.  That would give him a $15M guarantee, but I’d ultimately settle for a one & done.

As for Montas, he basically didn’t pitch last year (1.1 innings in Sep) after having shoulder surgery early in May and enters the off-season as a massive wild card.  He was obviously very good with the A’s but struggled after getting traded to the Yankees in 2022.  It’s really tough to project how much he’ll get on the open market, but my guess is he will also be limited to one a year prove it deal.  I’d offer a very similar contract to one I proposed to Severino.  The main difference would be a slightly lower base salary at $10M but with $2M in incentives based on starts made.  I’d offer the same exact team option / buyout structure, but again would be perfectly fine with a one and done deal since a productive Montas has real flip value at the deadline.

To fill out the rotation, I’m going to test my strategic priorities and sign 26 year Cuban RHP Yariel Rodriguez to a sizable multi-year deal.  He was a dominant reliever in the Nippon League back prior to shifting to a starting role for Cuba in the WBC.  Now, my view on him is entirely based on very limited second hand reports, but he sounds like he has a starter’s repertoire along with the stuff to be a back-end reliever as a fall-back.  Not sure what that costs you nowadays, but I’m willing to gamble on a say 5/$40M contract.  Again, that may be a bit too high or low, but as long as my scouts feel he has the upside of a #3 type starter with the floor of a quality setup man, I’m willing to take a gamble in a range around that amount.

In summary, these moves would result in the following rotation:

1. Luis Severino ($12M)
2. Frankie Montas ($12M)
3. Yariel Rodriguez ($8M)
4. Michael Kopech ($4M)
5. Touki Toussaint ($1.5M)

To me, that’s a great use of rotation innings in a lost season and all at a very reasonable cost.  And as hinted at above, Nastrini (and possibly others) would be a real threat to take one of these roles as soon as his performance and/or injuries/trades permit.  Even if the veterans don’t perform well, they buy us some time with the young arms.  If they do perform, they provide legit trade value at the deadline or possibly some 2025 stability if the team options were to come to fruition.  Regardless, I like how these moves fit the broader strategic roadmap I outlined in my previous post and I’d give Getz huge kudos for pulling something like this off vs. grabbing a bunch of safe innings-eaters.

Edited November 5, 2023 by Chicago White Sox

[The Mighty Mite]

3 hours ago, Saufley said:

I don't want to have to wait that long.

I’ll be 78 soon, I don’t want to wait that long either.

Edited November 5, 2023 by The Mighty Mite

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

Good luck having a fanbase doing this. We couldn't make a rebuild work when the stars aligned for us with trade chips, big spenders being out on Harper/Machado, weak division, added playoff teams, and Robert in his prime. The truth is the Cubs may steal half of our fan base if not more. Sox fans are really done this time. 

Outside of trading Cease, I’m not sure I follow the angst over this.  Yes, the fan base will hate the losing next year, but that’s happening regardless of if we move Cease or not.  And we should 100% wait until the 2024 off-season before making sizable free agent investments.  None of this is going to be fun, but it’s the right thing to do and the consequences of pretending we can somehow win next year could be devastating.

[Saufley]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Outside of trading Cease, I’m not sure I follow the angst over this.  Yes, the fan base will hate the losing next year, but that’s happening regardless of if we move Cease or not.  And we should 100% wait until the 2024 off-season before making sizable free agent investments.  None of this is going to be fun, but it’s the right thing to do and the consequences of pretending we can somehow win next year could be devastating.

Wow! Anyone figure we would be in this situation so soon after our "Championship Window"? They really screwed this thing up!