2024 Offseason Plan - "Try" to Compete Edition

[FloydBannister1983]

5 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

Good luck having a fanbase doing this. We couldn't make a rebuild work when the stars aligned for us with trade chips, big spenders being out on Harper/Machado, weak division, added playoff teams, and Robert in his prime. The truth is the Cubs may steal half of our fan base if not more. Sox fans are really done this time. 

They may not steal half the fan base but half the fan base may be permanently disinterested and they are not going to grow any new, young Sox fans.  What kid in his right mind would root for the Sox?

[fathom]

16 minutes ago, FloydBannister1983 said:

They may not steal half the fan base but half the fan base may be permanently disinterested and they are not going to grow any new, young Sox fans.  What kid in his right mind would root for the Sox?

Better hope the Cubs don’t get Ohtani 

[Lip Man 1]

6 hours ago, Saufley said:

I don't want to have to wait that long.

Unfortunately you don't have a choice so I continue to say take care of yourself, eat right, exercise, see your doctor and hope to outlive current ownership because that's the only hope you have. 

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, fathom said:

Better hope the Cubs don’t get Ohtani 

I read recently when either he or someone in his camp said Chicago is to cold. 

[Eminor3rd]

1 hour ago, fathom said:

Better hope the Cubs don’t get Ohtani 

If the Dodgers don't get him, I'll be legitimately shocked.

[caulfield12]

10 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

The first player Getz should sign is Tommy Pham.  The Sox haven't had a red ass player since AJ and Pham is an all-time red ass.  He'll turn that clubhouse around on day one.  

That works quite well on a winning team...not so much on last year's Cardinals or White Sox.

He kinda wore out his welcome in SD and NY, but that's a common theme throughout his career.  Not sure he's the right leader for a 90-105 loss team.  Plus he's a lot older than you'd think.

Edited November 6, 2023 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, fathom said:

Better hope the Cubs don’t get Ohtani 

Or Soto...

 

 

[caulfield12]

10 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Honestly, there is no path to compete next year.  And as such, I’m going to outline my “do the right thing” plan which is entirely focused on being good again by 2027.  High-level, this means punting the 2024 season (despite the lack of draft pick upside) and then using 2025 as a transition year for development.

At a conceptual level, I will avoid calling up my big three positional prospects (Montgomery, Ramos, & Quero) until 2025.  It just doesn’t make sense to burn any service time this year and I’d rather have them all hit in a more condensed window.  The SP & RP pitching prospects in the upper minors are a completely different story though.  Pitching is simply too volatile and injuries can happen at any time, so whenever those guys are ready for a shot they should get one.

So beyond that one guiding principle, here are the rest of my strategic priorities for the off-season:

1. Trade Dylan Cease if a quality offer is there, otherwise hold to deadline
2. Only sign free agents to one year deals unless they are young and/or are greatly underrated by the market (team options are obviously ok)
3. With rental free agents, prioritize ceiling over floor and hope those who actually work out can be flipped at the deadline for something of value
4. Explore trades for Moncada & Eloy, but only deal them if it makes sense
5. Leverage our open 40 man roster and acquire players with upside who may fall victim of being in stronger orgs with no space (Rule 5 as well)
6. Once they are ready, prioritize playing time for our B / C tier prospects over any low ceiling vets (such as Sosa, Rodriguez, Colas, Lee, etc.)

I still need to work through the specific names, but ultimately it’s all going to look very ugly for the 2024 season.  The most important thing is to admit defeat and acknowledge there is no hope for next year.  Only by doing that, can you identify the moves needed to right the ship by 2026.

The biggest issue is simply getting players to hold their own and put up a 1-2 fWAR.

At least to look like they actually belong in the big leagues.

A lot of posters seem to be penciling Ramos in at 3rd base for future infields.  Hard to really have faith in any of those names after how bad Colas crashed and burned after being gifted a glide path to the starting RF position.

Wasn't Getz the one most responsible for signing off on their big league readiness?  Unless he simply didn't push back and went along with the big league front office egos/agendas...

Ultimately, it's far easier to recognize the ones who won't make it than the ones who will stick.

 

Pushing Lee, for example, into a position he clearly wasn't ready for...did him a disservice.

Edited November 6, 2023 by caulfield12

[SouthSideGeorgia]

This was more just an exercise for me to see what I could assemble based on what’s out there in free agency. The assumptions I had was based upon not really competing hard in 2024, which feels far remote despite what Jerry will say. 
 

I stayed away from the top free agents at the positions since I highly doubt they would want to come to the southside and also I doubt the Sox are looking to lock up players now. So as a result, trying to find guys with maybe some upside that would be agreeable to 1 or 2 year contracts, maybe with options. Overall, without really analyzing the bullpen free agents or the bench… this roster would come out a little over $160 million.  Room to maybe pick up another fringe starting arm or two since the AAA farm is dry these days. Definitely could add some cheap vet bullpen arms on cheap 1 yr contracts. The bench should be cheap organizational prospects with upside (Sosa, Korey Lee, etc). 
 

This lineup is nowhere near Central ready to compete, but offers some potential players that may be able to be moved if they break out. The best part is they can be traded, kept on their short contracts or even DFA’d if needed at some point. As other stated, I do try to move Cease and Eloy in trades if possible at some point. I am definitely free of Moncada, Eloy and Bummer at the end of 2024 (unless Eloy rebounds somehow). 
 

c Victor Caratini, FA 1+1 option yr $8 million OR Tom Murphy (same deal)

1b Vaughn $1.2 million arb. 

2b Adam Frazier FA 2 yrs $16 million or Whit Merrifield, 1yr $6 million

SS Amed Rosario FA 2 yrs $14 million or maybe that 2nd is an option

3b Yoan Moncada $24.8 million

LF Benintendi $17.1 million

CF Robert $12.5 million

RF Colas $780k

DH Jimenez $13,833,333

 

SP Cease $8 mill arb

SP J. Flaherty, FA 3yr $34 million

SP Kopech $5 mill arb

SP L. Severino, FA 1 yr $9 million

SP Montas, FA 1 yr $8 million

 

Now I want to go throw up…
 

Edited November 6, 2023 by SouthSideGeorgia

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, SouthSideGeorgia said:

This was more just an exercise for me to see what I could assemble based on what’s out there in free agency. The assumptions I had was based upon not really competing hard in 2024, which feels far remote despite what Jerry will say. 
 

I stayed away from the top free agents at the positions since I highly doubt they would want to come to the southside and also I doubt the Sox are looking to lock up players now. So as a result, trying to find guys with maybe some upside that would be agreeable to 1 or 2 year contracts, maybe with options. Overall, without really analyzing the bullpen free agents or the bench… this roster would come out a little over $160 million.  Room to maybe pick up another fringe starting arm or two since the AAA farm is dry these days. Definitely could add some cheap vet bullpen arms on cheap 1 yr contracts. The bench should be cheap organizational prospects with upside (Sosa, Korey Lee, etc). 
 

This lineup is nowhere near Central ready to compete, but offers some potential players that may be able to be moved if they break out. The best part is they can be traded, kept on their short contracts or even DFA’d if needed at some point. As other stated, I do try to move Cease and Eloy in trades if possible at some point. I am definitely free of Moncada, Eloy and Bummer at the end of 2024 (unless Eloy rebounds somehow). 
 

c Victor Caratini, FA 1+1 option yr $8 million OR Tom Murphy (same deal)

1b Vaughn $1.2 million arb. 

2b Adam Frazier FA 2 yrs $16 million or Whit Merrifield, 1yr $6 million

SS Amed Rosario FA 2 yrs $14 million or maybe that 2nd is an option

3b Yoan Moncada $24.8 million

LF Benintendi $17.1 million

CF Robert $12.5 million

RF Colas $780k

DH Jimenez $13,833,333

 

SP Cease $8 mill arb

SP J. Flaherty, FA 3yr $34 million

SP Kopech $5 mill arb

SP L. Severino, FA 1 yr $12 million

SP Montas, FA 1 yr $8 million

 

Now I want to go throw up…
 

If Severino's getting $12 million after last year they're doomed...

[SouthSideGeorgia]

8 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

If Severino's getting $12 million after last year they're doomed...

 You’re absolutely right on that one. ?

But the Sox probably seeking reclamation projects like Severino at some price. Hopefully nowhere near that price. 

[ChiSoxJon]

Congratulations Jack Flaherty, Sean Maenea, and Marcus Stroman...You are Chicago White Sox

[flavum]

3 minutes ago, ChiSoxJon said:

Congratulations Jack Flaherty, Sean Maenea, and Marcus Stroman...You are Chicago White Sox

Manaea, for sure.

[bmags]

I would be surprised if they hit $190M.

 

[hogan873]

42 minutes ago, ChiSoxJon said:

Congratulations Jack Flaherty, Sean Maenea, and Marcus Stroman...You are Chicago White Sox

I don't see the Sox paying Stroman what he's going to want.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, hogan873 said:

I don't see the Sox paying Stroman what he's going to want.

Maenea/Flaherty are more likely to take one of the 1 year or 1 year + player option deals to build back value. Stroman is gonna find another multi-year deal more than likely. I don't think sox should shop in that for a guy that old.

[South Side Hit Men]

Let’s face it, the Sox haven’t tried to compete since Jerry and his fellow owners cancelled the 1994 World Series.

They lucked into one season, spent money Tony told them the spend on Leury, Kelly, Eaton, Lynn extension, etc..

Jerry lied at the Getz press conference, tried to con gullible season ticket holders to renew their tickets.

Until a non Reinsdorf is in charge, they will not spend the appropriate funds on a competent baseball operations organization or a proper roster to contend. Fischer in Vegas might beat them to the first nine figure contract.

[ChiSoxJon]

Won't happen, but Hader (4/$80), Hoskins (1/$17), Lee Jung-Hoo (4/$56), Hicks (4/$36), Flaherty (1/$15), Maeda (1/$10), and Maenea (1/$12) would make this ball club significantly more enjoyable

Of course this team attracts nobody and possesses a weak roster under poor management and even poorer ownership that won't spend
 

[caulfield12]

Let’s say we had Michael Wacha off his 2023 season…the problem is not even going to be realized until later that his value from Year 1 and then that second year option doesn’t exactly lend itself to slam dunk overwhelming value in trade.

The only thing that will make sense for Tier B veteran players outperforming their deals is going to be second year options that are quite expensive…in that $14-16 million range, like an Andrew Heaney as well.

So now you’re left due to contract risk in Tier B of the pitching market mining for nuggets almost exclusively in Tier C/D.

Which means you probably are only going to get 1 huge surprise to the upside…2 if you’re very very fortunate out of let’s say five starters and relievers you’re paying between $6-9 million or so.   Out of $50 million in Year 1 FA spending, which might already be the upper band limit on what they spend for 2024 in FA.

[Bob Sacamano]

Please no more overpaying for relievers/closers, especially if it isn't the *only* missing piece.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Bob Sacamano

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

I would be surprised if they hit $190M.

 

$135-155 million seems much more realistic…especially with Cease, Jimenez and Moncada (plus offset or subsidy financially of around 50% or more) trades all increasingly likely in the next calendar year.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

Maenea/Flaherty are more likely to take one of the 1 year or 1 year + player option deals to build back value. Stroman is gonna find another multi-year deal more than likely. I don't think sox should shop in that for a guy that old.

Manaea’s velocity is shot and he would get destroyed at GRF compared to that massive outfield in SF working to his favor at night especially with the marine layer.   Just doesn’t have enough differentiation in pitches as stuff has deteriorated badly over the last 2-3 seasons.

Think Keuchel’s final contract Sox in levels of ineptitude bad.   Or Derek Holland.

[bmags]

signing hader would have to be one of the funnier signings. 

[ChiSox59]

Purely for the sake of the exercise...

Free Agents: 

Lourdes Gurriel 4/$70M 

Hyun Jin Ryu 1/$14M guaranteed with an $18.5M club option

Lucas Giolito 1/$14M guaranteed with an $18.5M club option

Brandon Crawford 1/$8M

Luis Severino 1/$8M

Tommy Pham 1/$6M

Adam Frazier 1/$5M

Victor Caratini 1/$5M

Reynaldo Lopez 1/$5M (gotta keep Gio/ReyLo together!)

Sign Brad Hand 1/$2.5M

Sign Bryan Shaw 1/$1M

Lineup:

Benintendi LF ($17.1M), Gurriel RF ($17.5M), Robert CF ($12.5M), Eloy DH ($13.83M), Moncada 3B ($24.8M), Vaughn 1B ($3.7M), Adam Frazier 2B ($5M), Crawford SS ($8M), Lee/Caratini C ($740k / $5M)

Rotation: 

Cease ($8.8M), Giolito ($14M), Ryu ($14M), Severino ($8M) and Kopech ($3.6M) with Scholtens, Touki, Eder, Nastrini, Mena, Burke, Martin as options

Pen: 

Santos ($740k), Bummer($5.5M), Crochet ($900k), Lopez ($5M), Touki ($1.7M), Hand ($2M), Shaw ($1M), Lambert ($740k) (out of options) with Leisure, Patino (out of options), Deivi (out of options), Speas, Ramsey, Foster, Banks, Ramirez as options 

BN:

Lee/Caratini ($740k/$5m), Pham ($6M) with 2 of Romy, Sosa, Colas, Sheets, Remillard and JRod filling the bench.  Colson and Ramos options a couple months in potentially sending Crawford/Frazier to bench.    

Total 2024 payroll: ~$180M (~$186.5M with dead money to Leury, Liam and Abreu)

This team probably still sucks, but its about the best you can make it staying under $190M using just free agents.  Defense is much improved, but Sox again sticking someone in RF who has never played in Gurriel, so he's not exactly a perfect fit. Rotation is at least mildly interesting and not relying on any of the prospects right out of the gate.  The ALC is still very bad, so maybe this team floats around .500 for the first few months. I don't see anyone in the division running away and hiding.  Twins in best shape, but they're looking to replace a decent chunk of their pitching as well. 

Of course, trades will be made.  I toyed with some trade ideas but that's when the plans get a little wild.  One sort of off the wall idea I had if the Sox were actually trying to "compete" in the ALC in 2024 - probably not the best move for the future, but I felt it was kind of interesting: 

Cease to the Rays for Glasnow and Lowe.  The Rays are cheap and they turn 1 year of Glasnow at $25M into 2 years of Cease for less than $25M total.  Sox get an ace (with injury concerns) back for Cease, and get a really nice lineup fit at 2B in Lowe who has 3 years of control via options.  Lowe is a huge improvement over trying to plug 2 MI holes via FA that has so few MI options of note.  Its at least interesting, but of course blows the Sox best non-Robert trade bullet without getting a single prospect of note. With Glasnow's huge price tag and limited control, maybe you can get back 45 FV pitching prospect in the deal. If you were to make this deal, you absolutely have to try to figure out how to make the 24 roster competitive. And the finances got really difficult to work with trying to stay under $190M with Sox taking on $25M in additional 24 commitments in that deal.  Not a deal I am actually campaigning for, just offseason rosterbating more than anything.

[Bob Sacamano]

I would turn that Giolito "club option" into a player option. I would guess he's looking at a deal similar to Rodon (1 year, 1 year player option) to leave for a better deal if he pitches great after 1 season.