2024 Offseason Plan - "Try" to Compete Edition

[Bob Sacamano]

Honestly, spend on 3 mid-rotation pitchers, sign a few relievers to one year deals, and then just sign defensive players around the rest of the field. Pitch and field well.

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, Quin said:

Yeah, I can't stress how much I expect a "we're waiting for Colson, Ramos and company to lead us to our next contention window" message, so I pretty much built Stop Gap: The Team 

Did you miss the part where I wrote "wild card at best"

Well then we're splitting hairs on the definition for truly competing because wild card at best implies competing still.

2012 and 2022 Sox were competitive but ultimately fell short and they were .500 plus teams or close to it at least.

And that competitiveness is only based on being ensconced in the very worst division in baseball.

Edited November 7, 2023 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

55 minutes ago, Quin said:

Yeah, I can't stress how much I expect a "we're waiting for Colson, Ramos and company to lead us to our next contention window" message, so I pretty much built Stop Gap: The Team 

For "Stop gap the team" you have an awful lot of multi-year deals, including the biggest deal in team history again. A lot of those guys are going to be tough to trade at least until 2025, maybe longer, and if and when this team does become good some of them are going to be Benintendi-like risky money.

For the biggest example, you're paying Montgomery for his age 31 to 34 seasons, is he going to keep up this pace through age 33 or 34? This is the kind of deal I keep saying I'd avoid because it's not a stop gap deal, it's outbidding 20 other franchises for a top 5 pitcher on the market. 

[Quin]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

For "Stop gap the team" you have an awful lot of multi-year deals, including the biggest deal in team history again. A lot of those guys are going to be tough to trade at least until 2025, maybe longer, and if and when this team does become good some of them are going to be Benintendi-like risky money.

For the biggest example, you're paying Montgomery for his age 31 to 34 seasons, is he going to keep up this pace through age 33 or 34? This is the kind of deal I keep saying I'd avoid because it's not a stop gap deal, it's outbidding 20 other franchises for a top 5 pitcher on the market. 

Montgomery was the "if they're truly gonna do something" signing that I felt I might as well add. You could also do plenty of those deals (sans Montgomery) as 1 year deals, just bump the pay up.

Part of it is my low confidence in prospects hitting with this organization + the fact that tanking won't make a lot of sense since they very likely won't be able to draft in the top 10 in 2025.

 

[Balta1701]

37 minutes ago, Quin said:

Montgomery was the "if they're truly gonna do something" signing that I felt I might as well add. You could also do plenty of those deals (sans Montgomery) as 1 year deals, just bump the pay up.

Part of it is my low confidence in prospects hitting with this organization + the fact that tanking won't make a lot of sense since they very likely won't be able to draft in the top 10 in 2025.

 

That does feel a lot like what I've expected the White Sox to do, which is why I'm kinda calling it out. It's the same sort of "doing a few things but not really and hope that everything turns out all right" that is the general expectation.

If they were going to do that, I would understand letting Anderson go a lot less. 

[Rounding_Third]

Hire Ross right now while he's still in shock; before he comes to his senses and turns it down.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I'll wait until I see who's non-tendered for depth purposes. 

All the starting pitching FA have pretty much been mentioned. I think you need an impact signing for 5 years or so which would mean the biggest Sox contract  ever and a similar contract the following year. That would mean dumping Moncada and Eloy between now and after the season. Guys in my head for this year, Bellinger, Soler. I agree prospects most ready for the majors need to get a shot Sosa, Colas even though both looked bad. Maybe Colas gets traded since the Sox don't seem overly fond of him. Outside of that I'll continue to stress left-handed fast powerful, OBP, defensive youth like I have done in the past. Problem is places those types usually play is OF and Robert and Benintendi take up 2 of 3 available spots and Bellinger is going to get way more than he should considering before last year he was pretty bad and people weren't sure he was capable of overcoming his injuries. He was very good last year but now he may get 4+ yrs and well over $100M.

The Sox throughout their history have the worst hitting LH players in baseball . This needs to change in our ballpark. I wish they had listened to me last year and gone after a trade for Outman or someone similar instead of wasting money on Benintendi. Now he's just another salary that needs to be dumped.

Of course anyone taking a stab at this exercise has to believe JR is going to spend money and that a rookie GM isn't as infatuated with Salvy Perez and Merrifield as has been speculated and he's only retaining Grifol because it's pointless to fire him knowing how bad they are going to be next year . May as well just keep him so you're not paying 2 managers. Just tell Grifol what to do and who to play if he wants to keep his job and if he doesn't like it he can quit and forfeit the remainder of his contract.

Edited November 7, 2023 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

7 hours ago, Rey21 said:

Lars Nootbaar would be a fantastic get, so fantastic that Chris Getz won’t even consider it 

He would've been a better get last year since he was one of a dozen or so young mostly LH OF I suggested the last 2 off seasons.

Have to get guys like him coming off rookie struggles or multiple call ups over a couple of years that reduce their value or some unranked but overlooked guys. My past suggestions were Nootbaar, James Outman, Kelenic , Varsho, Santander among the lefties and the RH Stone Garrett. I really like Colas but alas he might be another guy with a 10 cent head .

Edited November 7, 2023 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

10 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

That does feel a lot like what I've expected the White Sox to do, which is why I'm kinda calling it out. It's the same sort of "doing a few things but not really and hope that everything turns out all right" that is the general expectation.

If they were going to do that, I would understand letting Anderson go a lot less. 

Except the whole thread is supposed to be about doing your best to compete quickly with $190M. Calling someone out for signing an older pitcher to a multi-year deal or a position player would be one of those things likely to happen if you were trying your best within that budget to create a winning team.

It's all a silly exercise with a practically impossible task. You'd have to overpay someone or another to get them to come to a pitiful losing team.

If you're looking for a bunch of 1 year bounce back candidates it's not like you're the only team looking for those types to trade off at the deadline to get more prospects. You're talking about a rebuild strategy. This thread is about insta-compete with an unlikely high payroll budget so if the top priority is competing your spending has to reflect that with a secondary goal of if we aren't competing by the trade deadline then I might have to trade off anyone who I signed who actually did bounceback even if I signed them to a relatively cheap contract with an option year. A contract like that which offers a team option for a 2nd year with a significant increase in pay would be a good incentive to get someone to sign here , even though guaranteed money is the best incentive ,which often means some of your bounceback guys get 2 year contracts instead.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 11/5/2023 at 5:44 PM, caulfield12 said:

The biggest issue is simply getting players to hold their own and put up a 1-2 fWAR.

At least to look like they actually belong in the big leagues.

A lot of posters seem to be penciling Ramos in at 3rd base for future infields.  Hard to really have faith in any of those names after how bad Colas crashed and burned after being gifted a glide path to the starting RF position.

Wasn't Getz the one most responsible for signing off on their big league readiness?  Unless he simply didn't push back and went along with the big league front office egos/agendas...

Ultimately, it's far easier to recognize the ones who won't make it than the ones who will stick.

 

Pushing Lee, for example, into a position he clearly wasn't ready for...did him a disservice.

There's way too much talk about doing a prospect a disservice when talking about hurting their development. It's all sooo speculative. We have no idea why some guys make it and some don't.

Was it something a coach suggested that was learned through some aspects of organizational philosophy tied to the sports science department and a multifaceted biomechanical study that broke them down and rebuilt a swing or arm angle combined with physical maturation, weight training the right muscles, a diet change,  getting married, a new level of mental maturation ,1 or more of those things combined ? Too often we talk about bringing someone up too soon ruining a prospect . It's picking the low hanging fruit as a fan because we have zero clue what the player or the team is doing or has done to get to the point where he becomes a better player. Players with great talent and numbers can be brought up very young and the truly gifted ones physically and mentally can handle it. The majority will struggle at some point and wether or not that player was brought up early is only one among perhaps dozens of things that impact development.

Being brought up early may even help some guys because no matter who you are you are going to have to hit MLB pitching at some point. With some the sooner you start facing them the faster you can start making those adjustments. How often do rookies come up and become really good players right away? I'd say almost never. So fans are always going to see young guys struggle and bam, grab that low hanging, brought up too soon, we ruined him fruit.

[Quin]

11 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

That does feel a lot like what I've expected the White Sox to do, which is why I'm kinda calling it out. It's the same sort of "doing a few things but not really and hope that everything turns out all right" that is the general expectation.

If they were going to do that, I would understand letting Anderson go a lot less. 

Oh, for sure. The Jerry MO, that I expect Getz to continue until shown otherwise, is to catch lightning in a bottle.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

There's way too much talk about doing a prospect a disservice when talking about hurting their development. It's all sooo speculative. We have no idea why some guys make it and some don't.

Was it something a coach suggested that was learned through some aspects of organizational philosophy tied to the sports science department and a multifaceted biomechanical study that broke them down and rebuilt a swing or arm angle combined with physical maturation, weight training the right muscles, a diet change,  getting married, a new level of mental maturation ,1 or more of those things combined ? Too often we talk about bringing someone up too soon ruining a prospect . It's picking the low hanging fruit as a fan because we have zero clue what the player or the team is doing or has done to get to the point where he becomes a better player. Players with great talent and numbers can be brought up very young and the truly gifted ones physically and mentally can handle it. The majority will struggle at some point and wether or not that player was brought up early is only one among perhaps dozens of things that impact development.

Being brought up early may even help some guys because no matter who you are you are going to have to hit MLB pitching at some point. With some the sooner you start facing them the faster you can start making those adjustments. How often do rookies come up and become really good players right away? I'd say almost never. So fans are always going to see young guys struggle and bam, grab that low hanging, brought up too soon, we ruined him fruit.

Puig and Tatis lol.

[TheFutureIsNear]

Is it bad that I actually really want the front office to try and compete?

 

 But only because I think that will result in unintentional tanking. 

[bmags]

I see STL dumping Carlson for pitching, not Nootbar. 

Seems like he's just a "move to the outfield" candidate, but I'd love Tommy Edman.

Unfortunately, what they need is pitching. 

[fathom]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

I see STL dumping Carlson for pitching, not Nootbar. 

Seems like he's just a "move to the outfield" candidate, but I'd love Tommy Edman.

Unfortunately, what they need is pitching. 

Carlson and Gorman are the two I think they use for pitching upgrades 

[caulfield12]

27 minutes ago, fathom said:

Carlson and Gorman are the two I think they use for pitching upgrades 

Gorman and Jordan Walker defensively challenged.

Sox desperately need pop though.

Nootbarr seems like tough trade target with current depth chart.

(They can't trade both Gorman and Walker seemingly.)

Carlson ideal fourth outfielder and certainly better than Colas. Cease?

Edited November 7, 2023 by caulfield12

[bmags]

27 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Gorman and Jordan Walker defensively challenged.

Sox desperately need pop though.

Nootbarr seems like tough trade target with current depth chart.

(They can't trade both Gorman and Walker seemingly.)

Carlson ideal fourth outfielder and certainly better than Colas. Cease?

You want to trade Dylan Cease for a fourth outfielder yeah great trade.

Walker proved himself as an outfielder to end the year. The cardinals do a weird thing where they actually coach players defensively. Despite it working, the white sox are extREEEMELY skeptical.

[Balta1701]

13 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Bellinger is going to get way more than he should considering before last year he was pretty bad and people weren't sure he was capable of overcoming his injuries. He was very good last year but now he may get 4+ yrs and well over $100M.

Since you're still around $100m, can I check whether you saw the MLB Trade Rumors contract projection on him?

[ChiSox59]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Since you're still around $100m, can I check whether you saw the MLB Trade Rumors contract projection on him?

If someone pays Bellinger $250M, they're going to really, really regret that.  

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

If someone pays Bellinger $250M, they're going to really, really regret that.  

While likely true, there's also a lot of money available and not a lot of difference-making position players available, so that could be a genuine price war.

I looked up the 2022 MLBTR projections, and out of the top 15, 12 signings were for more than their projection. 

[Lip Man 1]

MLB.com has a story today that says Bellinger is the Giants #1 off season priority with Othani expected to sign with the Dodgers.  

[Chisoxfn]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

While likely true, there's also a lot of money available and not a lot of difference-making position players available, so that could be a genuine price war.

I looked up the 2022 MLBTR projections, and out of the top 15, 12 signings were for more than their projection. 

This - if Bellinger's struggles were driven by health and he is able to be healthy - he very well could have a few massively productive years (his peak was well above average). With that said - his volatility of performance is massive so you could just as well get bad Bellinger and bad Bellinger is really bad.  I know I wouldn't take that bet long-term - but I get that a team would. He is above average defensively, has massive power, bats from the left side, and is 28.  

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Since you're still around $100m, can I check whether you saw the MLB Trade Rumors contract projection on him?

Ive seen a lot of projections now thats why I said 4yrs+ and 100M+ . Some are talking 200M+ which seems really high.

[Bob Sacamano]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

While likely true, there's also a lot of money available and not a lot of difference-making position players available, so that could be a genuine price war.

I looked up the 2022 MLBTR projections, and out of the top 15, 12 signings were for more than their projection. 

Yeah free agency isn't very deep. Not a lot of top talent players available.

[caulfield12]

5 hours ago, bmags said:

You want to trade Dylan Cease for a fourth outfielder yeah great trade.

Walker proved himself as an outfielder to end the year. The cardinals do a weird thing where they actually coach players defensively. Despite it working, the white sox are extREEEMELY skeptical.

Gorman and Carlson...Walker and Carlson.

Both guys make that a hard trade for StL unless something else goes the other way.