Getz speaks at GM meetings...

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 11/8/2023 at 6:46 AM, Quin said:

While I joked with the Shaq meme, Rick Hahn once said we were mired in mediocrity and needed to hit home runs.

Getz has to produce results or this is just fluff. And he has to do it on an accelerated timeline, because he was gifted a GM job on the premise that he doesn't need time to turn things around.

And we all know what this means. Welcome back to 2016. Attempt to sign a bunch of veteran Free Agents in the $1-15M range and some of them to 2 or more years. Might get 6 of them. Ignore any young LH hitter with any speed, power or defensive ability. Any advancement in the farm system created by the Trade Deadline trades will slowly fade down back into the 25th to 30th ranked farm system.

[Quin]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

And we all know what this means. Welcome back to 2016. Attempt to sign a bunch of veteran Free Agents in the $1-15M range and some of them to 2 or more years. Might get 6 of them. Ignore any young LH hitter with any speed, power or defensive ability. Any advancement in the farm system created by the Trade Deadline trades will slowly fade down back into the 25th to 30th ranked farm system.

And the desperation of the 2015-2016 teams led to them trading several minor leaguers that turned into long-term major leaguers, from depth to perennial all-stars.

[caulfield12]

12 minutes ago, Quin said:

And the desperation of the 2015-2016 teams led to them trading several minor leaguers that turned into long-term major leaguers, from depth to perennial all-stars.

MVPs/MVP votes for two of them, in fact...

[Dick Allen]

Bob said everyone is available except Robert, and payroll is being cut. Also said the Angels are interested in TA as a 2B. 

[Chicago White Sox]

21 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Bob said everyone is available except Robert, and payroll is being cut. Also said the Angels are interested in TA as a 2B. 

Which makes total sense.  There is no need to rush a Robert trade.  However, it’s better to move Cease now if the value is there.  And no one else really has enough value to matter sadly.

Also, no one should be surprised by payroll cuts.  No way Jerry wasn’t slashing payroll after a decrease in attendance.

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Which makes total sense.  There is no need to rush a Robert trade.  However, it’s better to move Cease now if the value is there.  And no one else really has enough value to matter sadly.

Also, no one should be surprised by payroll cuts.  No way Jerry wasn’t slashing payroll after a decrease in attendance.

With his velocity drop and substantially decreased peripherals last year, do you expect the value to be there for Cease? I still don’t.

[Chicago White Sox]

8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

With his velocity drop and substantially decreased peripherals last year, do you expect the value to be there for Cease? I still don’t.

What peripherals are you referring to?

But yes, I still think he should have plenty of value even if it’s down from where it was a year ago.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What peripherals are you referring to?

But yes, I still think he should have plenty of value even if it’s down from where it was a year ago.

Exit velocity specifically, and K rate as a notable second.

[Chicago White Sox]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Exit velocity specifically, and K rate as a notable second.

His K rate went from 11.10 to 10.88.  Not sure I’d call that a significant drop and it highlights he was still able to strike out guys at a very high level despite his slider not being as effective.  I’d wager money a lot of clubs would love to get their hands on him as White Sox incompetence shouldn’t change their 2024 outlook for Cease.

[Balta1701]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

His K rate went from 11.10 to 10.88.  Not sure I’d call that a significant drop and it highlights he was still able to strike out guys at a very high level despite his slider not being as effective.  I’d wager money a lot of clubs would love to get their hands on him as White Sox incompetence shouldn’t change their 2024 outlook for Cease.

But that’s down from 12.3 in 2021.

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

But that’s down from 12.3 in 2021.

Why do I care about 2021 when he was a lesser pitcher with a different pitch mix and a much less effective slider?  The dude is trying to replicate the 2022 version of himself, not the 2021 one.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why do I care about 2021 when he was a lesser pitcher with a different pitch mix and a much less effective slider?  The dude is trying to replicate the 2022 version of himself, not the 2021 one.

Because that’s a trend line along with the velocity drop and harder contact. BABIP may be obscuring that for a year.

[Chicago White Sox]

22 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Because that’s a trend line along with the velocity drop and harder contact. BABIP may be obscuring that for a year.

There is no trend line here.  His pitch mix was substantially different in 2022 & 2023.  You’re trying to anchor off a 2021 peripheral that is no longer apples to apples to help your claim Cease is trending downward when that’s not really the case.  Cease’s 2022 was better than 2021 because he perfected an elite slider not because of some BABIP BS unless you are only looking at ERA.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There is no trend line here.  His pitch mix was substantially different in 2022 & 2023.  You’re trying to anchor off a 2021 peripheral that is no longer apples to apples to help your claim Cease is trending downward when that’s not really the case.  Cease’s 2022 was better than 2021 because he perfected an elite slider not because of some BABIP BS unless you are only looking at ERA.

And Cease’s 2023 was worse because when his velocity dropped his slider became a poor and ineffective pitch that was hit quite hard. So why should I pay a high price based on his 2022 when you just argued that previous seasons are unimportant, he’s not that good of a pitcher based on his 2023.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

And Cease’s 2023 was worse because when his velocity dropped his slider became a poor and ineffective pitch that was hit quite hard. So why should I pay a high price based on his 2022 when you just argued that previous seasons are unimportant, he’s not that good of a pitcher based on his 2023.

I argued his 2021 isn’t apples to apples to 2022 & 2023, so claims of his K rate trending downward is silly.  I also stated very clearly that his value is down from where it was a year ago, so I don’t need to argue why teams should pay a 2022 price when I’m not suggesting that in the first place.

Regarding 2023, he was ranked 18th amongst SPs in terms of fWAR despite a bad ERA.  Over the past three combined he’s ranked 8th overall.  You continue to undervalue him because he wasn’t the dominant 2022 version last year.  The reality is most GMs don’t simply look at the prior year and say that’s what a guy is worth.  GMs will value him based on their own projections which will include potential mechanical changes that could get his slider back to its 2022 form.

[Bob Sacamano]

14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

And Cease’s 2023 was worse because when his velocity dropped his slider became a poor and ineffective pitch that was hit quite hard. So why should I pay a high price based on his 2022 when you just argued that previous seasons are unimportant, he’s not that good of a pitcher based on his 2023.

He has acknowledged in a prior post that the price is lesser after 2023 than 2022.

Edited November 12, 2023 by Bob Sacamano

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, Bob Sacamano said:

He has acknowledged in a prior post that the price is lesser after 2023 than 2022.

Biggest concern has to also be throwing so many pitches just to get out of 4th and 5th innings...that quality in 2022 felt completely missing last year.

Then again...whole team collectively lost their WTW and you would think a change if scenery and coaching would/could work wonders.

[Balta1701]

10 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I argued his 2021 isn’t apples to apples to 2022 & 2023, so claims of his K rate trending downward is silly.  I also stated very clearly that his value is down from where it was a year ago, so I don’t need to argue why teams should pay a 2022 price when I’m not suggesting that in the first place.

Regarding 2023, he was ranked 18th amongst SPs in terms of fWAR despite a bad ERA.  Over the past three combined he’s ranked 8th overall.  You continue to undervalue him because he wasn’t the dominant 2022 version last year.  The reality is most GMs don’t simply look at the prior year and say that’s what a guy is worth.  GMs will value him based on their own projections which will include potential mechanical changes that could get his slider back to its 2022 form.

I've pointed this out before, but let's say it again - fWAR is misleading you here. Every time you point it out at me this offseason you're going to get this discussion.

fWAR does not take into account quality of contact made against it, it does not take into account exit velocity, it was programmed without it. If a pitcher is giving up much more hard contact, their BABIP will rise because of the contact quality. However, fWAR will see that and normalize it away, because it treats changes in that property as basically luck. 

Dylan Cease in 2023 gave up significantly more hard contact after losing velocity. His fWAR dropped a little because his K-rate dropped a bit, his HR rate went up a bit, and his walk rate went up a bit, but fWAR sees his .260 BABIP in 2022 and thinks "he was a little lucky" and his .330 BABIP in 2023 and thinks "He was very unlucky".

However, that's burying the difference in his exit velocity due to his velocity loss - he was not allowing hard contact in 2022, whereas he was allowing a ton of hard contact in 2023. If you look at xERA, which takes into account exit velocity, his xERA was 2.70 in 2022 and it rose to 4.07 in 2023 - so 1.37 runs more. Meanwhile, his FIP only went up by 0.6 between those 2 years.

He was a little unlucky last year, but overall given the quality of contact he gave up, he deserved to have an ERA in the low 4s. That performance level is a mid-rotation starter, an innings-eater. Not a top of the rotation guy, not a guy teams will give up a top prospect for, at least not in the offseason. In this case, the drop from 6.4 rWAR to 2.4 rWAR from 2022 to 2023 is doing a far better job of catching Cease's actual weakness, because the thing he was strong at in 2022 was his big weakness in 2023. The small decrease in fWAR is covering up what actually happened to him in 2023 because it's in a spot fWAR is blind to.

This is why I don't think he gets moved, because I don't think anyone is going to give up the kind of value the White Sox will expect for him given these numbers. He will have to come out in 2024 and prove he either has his velocity back or that he can get back to being effective with decreased velocity before GMs will meet the type of price the White Sox should want for him.

[tray]

I take issue with Getz statement that he doesn't like this team. It is a dumbed down statement that could have unintended consequences like devaluing the players on your own roster.  You don't have to like the team or any player on the team.  Neither Getz nor any other GM is going to be able to put together a 25 man roster without a few players that you don't like and a few who do not get along with one another. The fact is that there is a talent deficit that needs to be addressed. If that is what he means  he should be more precise with his words but if he truly dislikes individual players,  perhaps he should be more restrained with his sentiments. Maybe acquiring KimNg instead of TLR to mentor Getz would be a good idea. It is beginning to look like he needs a baby sitter.

Edited November 13, 2023 by tray

[caulfield12]

Both him and Grifol saying they dislike their team comes off as disingenuous at best...how would it possibly benefit the franchise for both leaders to echo those ridiculous sentiments that will just lead to more apathy and dissenters in the clubhouse?

Luis Robert has to be saying what the F after the season he just enjoyed...

[Chimpton]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Both him and Grifol saying they dislike their team comes off as disingenuous at best...how would it possibly benefit the franchise for both leaders to echo those ridiculous sentiments that will just lead to more apathy and dissenters in the clubhouse?

Luis Robert has to be saying what the F after the season he just enjoyed...

But if he had said he liked the team or was in any way happy he would have been jumped on for that as well. After a 100 loss season you would hardly expect a GM to say he liked the team, just looking at these comment boards many people have said get rid of them all etc.

Not liking the team is different to not liking individual players, I doubt Robert would be happy putting up those numbers in a 100 loss team going forward. And some of these players need a kick up the backside to understand that a performance like last season is unacceptable.

I know, and agree, that Getz was an underwhelming appointment at best, but at least give him the chance to undo the Hahn team that came out so bad. No matter who the new GM was this team needed massive surgery not just a bit of a face lift, and at least he acknowledges that.

[Quin]

Man, the GM meetings getting cancelled cause of norovirus sure has killed any fun to have until the winter meetings.

Instead, we get to speculate how Jerry can hurt us next.

[Dick Allen]

1 hour ago, Quin said:

Man, the GM meetings getting cancelled cause of norovirus sure has killed any fun to have until the winter meetings.

Instead, we get to speculate how Jerry can hurt us next.

So nothing has changed in 42 years except our hope that things would somehow be different this time.

[bmags]

Sucks we dont' even have a beat writer to tell us if Getz had diarrhea.