Cease To Padres per Passan

[Bob Sacamano]

21 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Selling High on Santos? Didn’t he and the season with an elbow injury?

Sell high always on relievers.

[Balta1701]

16 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Sell high always on relievers.

I mean I don’t think you can sell a guy at all if you aren’t confident that his UCL isn’t partially torn.

[SoCalChiSox]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

I don’t think Bal will give up 2 top 100s for Cease.

Then there's a zero percent chance they will get him.

The market for Dylan Cease almost certainly will be 2 Top 100s plus maybe a semi-useful third piece. To get a similar pitcher on the open market would cost somewhere around 80-100m (in a long term commitment) more than Cease will be paid the next few years and alot of owners would prefer a trade than paying big money for a FA SP.

If BAL is gonna play the prospect hugging game again like at the deadline, then f*** em.

Cowser and Ortiz OR Hjerstad, Ortiz and Povich. 

 

Edited November 19, 2023 by SoCalChiSox

[Chicago White Sox]

26 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Right now I don’t think news worth that, I think his value right now is 1 top 100 guy and 1-2 lower value guys. The velocity drop and the hard hit rate this year should look like red flags to any team acquiring him - if he’s a 3.9 ERA pitcher for 2 years while throwing a bunch of innings, that’s useful, but it’s not worth 2 top 100 prospects with this many options on the FA and trade market.

If a strong deal wasn’t there at the deadline last year, he’s got to be worth less right now based on his second half, the extra options available right now, and the less control.

Maybe in Feb, if someone missed out on everything they might get desperate and overpay, but not right now. 

I’ve never met another person whose entire evaluation is to take the previous season and assume that continues on forever.  I also don’t know how anyone could be using ERA as their primary pitching metric in this day & age.

Secondly, what is a top 100 prospect worth?  Are they all worth the same and if your answer is no, then what type of top 100 prospect is Cease worth?

Also, why was Giolito with 2 months of control worth a legit 50 FV prospect, but two years of Cease plus a potential compensation pick is worth the same?  If you say it’s because of the “market”, who are all these free agent SPs with legit TOR ceilings that will be affordable to teams like the Orioles?

Finally, how do you know there wasn’t a strong deal last year?  There are rumors that Hahn was asking for Jackson Holiday until very late in the process (i.e. not serious negotiating).  Perhaps Elias made an offer that would be to Getz’s liking now?  It wouldn’t be the first time two teams couldn’t agree to a trade at the deadline and then for it to happen in the off-season (Sale, Lynn, etc).

[Bob Sacamano]

13 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’ve never met another person whose entire evaluation is to take the previous season and assume that continues on forever.  I also don’t know how anyone could be using ERA as their primary pitching metric in this day & age.

Secondly, what is a top 100 prospect worth?  Are they all worth the same and if your answer is no, then what type of top 100 prospect is Cease worth?

Also, why was Giolito with 2 months of control worth a legit 50 FV prospect, but two years of Cease plus a potential compensation pick is worth the same?  If you say it’s because of the “market”, who are all these free agent SPs with legit TOR ceilings that will be affordable to teams like the Orioles?

Finally, how do you know there wasn’t a strong deal last year?  There are rumors that Hahn was asking for Jackson Holiday until very late in the process (i.e. not serious negotiating).  Perhaps Elias made an offer that would be to Getz’s liking now?  It wouldn’t be the first time two teams couldn’t agree to a trade at the deadline and then for it to happen in the off-season (Sale, Lynn, etc).

Just insert the Debbie Downer gif every time he replies.

Edited November 19, 2023 by Bob Sacamano

[Balta1701]

38 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Then there's a zero percent chance they will get him.

The market for Dylan Cease almost certainly will be 2 Top 100s plus maybe a semi-useful third piece. To get a similar pitcher on the open market would cost somewhere around 80-100m (in a long term commitment) more than Cease will be paid the next few years and alot of owners would prefer a trade than paying big money for a FA SP.

If BAL is gonna play the prospect hugging game again like at the deadline, then f*** em.

Cowser and Ortiz OR Hjerstad, Ortiz and Povich. 

 

If I was Baltimore and those are the prices for Cease, I will go pay a lower price for Burnes and get a significantly better pitcher for this year, or if I’m willing to pay that kind of price I will go to Seattle and get Gilbert, an equal quality pitcher to Cease with several years more control.

[Balta1701]

25 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Just insert the Debbie Downer gif every time he replies.

Yes. Clearly I have been far too pessimistic about the White Sox the last few years. Please brag more about their success the last two years, I would love to hear more about how happy you are and the excellent job they have done. 

[SoxFest23]

43 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Then there's a zero percent chance they will get him.

The market for Dylan Cease almost certainly will be 2 Top 100s plus maybe a semi-useful third piece. To get a similar pitcher on the open market would cost somewhere around 80-100m (in a long term commitment) more than Cease will be paid the next few years and alot of owners would prefer a trade than paying big money for a FA SP.

If BAL is gonna play the prospect hugging game again like at the deadline, then f*** em.

Cowser and Ortiz OR Hjerstad, Ortiz and Povich. 

 

Not getting 2 top 100s, sorry. Not happening.

[Y2Jimmy0]

3 minutes ago, SoxFest23 said:

Not getting 2 top 100s, sorry. Not happening.

Yeah they will 

[Balta1701]

48 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’ve never met another person whose entire evaluation is to take the previous season and assume that continues on forever.  I also don’t know how anyone could be using ERA as their primary pitching metric in this day & age.

Secondly, what is a top 100 prospect worth?  Are they all worth the same and if your answer is no, then what type of top 100 prospect is Cease worth?

Also, why was Giolito with 2 months of control worth a legit 50 FV prospect, but two years of Cease plus a potential compensation pick is worth the same?  If you say it’s because of the “market”, who are all these free agent SPs with legit TOR ceilings that will be affordable to teams like the Orioles?

Finally, how do you know there wasn’t a strong deal last year?  There are rumors that Hahn was asking for Jackson Holiday until very late in the process (i.e. not serious negotiating).  Perhaps Elias made an offer that would be to Getz’s liking now?  It wouldn’t be the first time two teams couldn’t agree to a trade at the deadline and then for it to happen in the off-season (Sale, Lynn, etc).

I used ERA because that’s what Baltimore would be getting based on his performance last year, a mid rotation innings eater with an expected ERA around 4. That’s better than he was last year, but it’s not the “top of rotation” guy people want him to be in a trade.

Second, back end of the top 100. 

Third, the trade market for pitching was very hot at the deadline this year: that’s why Lynn returned a big price, that’s why Scherzer returned a big price, that’s why Verlander returned a big price.  The trade market last offseason was super weak, Sean Murphy returned a couple non-top-100 prospects and I believe he was the biggest trade last year.

This is why I think the right strategy is almost certainly going to be to hold Cease - there are 2 reasons why his price might be higher at the trade deadline. You are likely to get better pitching prices at the trade deadline because of limited supply, which is absolutely not the case right now as there are a bunch of pitchers for both FA and trade, and on top of that we need to see if Cease can either get velocity back or prove to trading partners that he can be effective with lower velocity. Right now, you are trying to price him while pretending his 2023 performance didn’t happen, and unfortunately it did and it was really disappointing. 

Finally, how much “cover your ass” leaking has happened from the white Sox over the last season. You really think that “there was this great deal for Cease but we turned it down” isn’t something that someone would have leaked at this point? The Orioles and everyone else could see his velocity drop and how it affected his whole performance, you can’t cover that up, there’s plenty of video.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

If I was Baltimore and those are the prices for Cease, I will go pay a lower price for Burnes and get a significantly better pitcher for this year, or if I’m willing to pay that kind of price I will go to Seattle and get Gilbert, an equal quality pitcher to Cease with several years more control.

I think your valuations are completely out of whack if you think that’s the package Gilbert would command.  And Burnes may be slightly less expensive, than Cease but my guess is it wouldn’t be substantially less.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

I used ERA because that’s what Baltimore would be getting based on his performance last year, a mid rotation innings eater with an expected ERA around 4. That’s better than he was last year, but it’s not the “top of rotation” guy people want him to be in a trade.

Second, back end of the top 100. 

Third, the trade market for pitching was very hot at the deadline this year: that’s why Lynn returned a big price, that’s why Scherzer returned a big price, that’s why Verlander returned a big price.  The trade market last offseason was super weak, Sean Murphy returned a couple non-top-100 prospects and I believe he was the biggest trade last year.

This is why I think the right strategy is almost certainly going to be to hold Cease - there are 2 reasons why his price might be higher at the trade deadline. You are likely to get better pitching prices at the trade deadline because of limited supply, which is absolutely not the case right now as there are a bunch of pitchers for both FA and trade, and on top of that we need to see if Cease can either get velocity back or prove to trading partners that he can be effective with lower velocity. Right now, you are trying to price him while pretending his 2023 performance didn’t happen, and unfortunately it did and it was really disappointing. 

Finally, how much “cover your ass” leaking has happened from the white Sox over the last season. You really think that “there was this great deal for Cease but we turned it down” isn’t something that someone would have leaked at this point? The Orioles and everyone else could see his velocity drop and how it affected his whole performance, you can’t cover that up, there’s plenty of video.

I’m pricing Cease like a #2 starter.  The ask if Cease just repeated his 2022 season would be substantially higher.

[Eminor3rd]

Gonna have to see who’s left after the free agents sign, realistically, to find out what the price is for Cease. If two motivated buyers remain with good systems, the price could be quite high. Otherwise, the deadline might be the better time to sell.

I tend to think they’ll make a deal this winter, but it’s not impossible to see some small market contenders settle for mid rotation free agents given Cease’s down year. 

Edited November 19, 2023 by Eminor3rd

[Tnetennba]

29 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think your valuations are completely out of whack if you think that’s the package Gilbert would command.  And Burnes may be slightly less expensive, than Cease but my guess is it wouldn’t be substantially less.

Gilbert even being available is a figment of his imagination. Seattle is looking to add, not create a hole in its rotation when they were in the playoff hunt until the final weekend last season. 

[ChiSoxFanMike]

The way I see it, they need to rip the bandaid off now and trade Cease this offseason. I don’t see how holding him into next season accomplishes anything. Yeah, maybe he will pitch better than he did in 2023, but it’s also possible that he could have another down year or even worse, get hurt. Not worth the risk to me. Cash in now.

[South Side Hit Men]

The MLB Trade Rumors goes in depth in terms of the possible teams interested. Listed are the players/prospects mentioned in the article. Before people wig out, these are players mentioned as excess or possible available players, not straight up trade proposals. Would look at this as the teams / second tier teams most likely to engage.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/looking-for-a-match-in-a-dylan-cease-trade.html

Best Fits (7):

• Arizona (Alek Thomas)
• Atlanta (Vaughn Grissom)
• Baltimore (Ramon Urias, Jordan Westburg)
• Cincinnati (Edwin Arroyo, Jonathan India)
• Los Angeles N. L. (Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan)
• Saint Louis (Dylan Carlson, Ivan Herrera)
• Tampa Bay (Curtis Mead)

Next Tier Down (7):

• Boston
• Houston
• New York A. L.
• Philadelphia
• San Diego
• San Francisco
• Texas

Unlikely Teams Per MLB Trade Rumors (15): 

• Non Contending Teams (5): Colorado, Los Angeles A. L., Kansas City, Oakland, Washington D. C..
• Far More Pressing Needs (4): Cleveland, Detroit, Miami, Pittsburgh.
• Lineup Needs Trump Pitching Needs (3): Milwaukee, Seattle, Toronto.
• Misc. Reasons (3): Chicago N. L. (Crosstown), Minnesota (Division), New York N. L. (uncertain timeline).

[Rey21]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

If I was Baltimore and those are the prices for Cease, I will go pay a lower price for Burnes and get a significantly better pitcher for this year, or if I’m willing to pay that kind of price I will go to Seattle and get Gilbert, an equal quality pitcher to Cease with several years more control.

Baltimore ownership is notoriously cheap and I read that Burnes’ projected salary number next season is $15 mil via arbitration where as Cease’s would be around 8.8 mil. Also acquiring Burnes isn’t gonna be significantly cheaper this is from Jim Bowden, who I know isn’t reliable but his take was this: 

The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, a former executive, led his five-team trade fits for Burnes with the Orioles. He wrote that a package consisting of left-hander DL Hall, right-hander Chayce McDermott, corner infielder Coby Mayo and outfielder Dylan Beavers “would probably be close to what it would take to land Burnes.”

I’d assume Mike Elias would prefer the extra year of control with Cease, the O’s match up perfectly with the Sox just have to be willing to nut up and quit prospect hugging. 

[caulfield12]

5 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’ve never met another person whose entire evaluation is to take the previous season and assume that continues on forever.  I also don’t know how anyone could be using ERA as their primary pitching metric in this day & age.

Secondly, what is a top 100 prospect worth?  Are they all worth the same and if your answer is no, then what type of top 100 prospect is Cease worth?

Also, why was Giolito with 2 months of control worth a legit 50 FV prospect, but two years of Cease plus a potential compensation pick is worth the same?  If you say it’s because of the “market”, who are all these free agent SPs with legit TOR ceilings that will be affordable to teams like the Orioles?

Finally, how do you know there wasn’t a strong deal last year?  There are rumors that Hahn was asking for Jackson Holiday until very late in the process (i.e. not serious negotiating).  Perhaps Elias made an offer that would be to Getz’s liking now?  It wouldn’t be the first time two teams couldn’t agree to a trade at the deadline and then for it to happen in the off-season (Sale, Lynn, etc).

Or Peavy…

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

The Sox should target C/1B Samuel Basallo in a trade with the Orioles as a secondary piece.

He was 18 for most of the season. Bats lefty. Made it to AA. Across 3 levels he hit .313 with a .402 OBP, 20 HR, also stole 12 bags. Kid has a huge arm behind the plate, although his size may force a move to 1B.

Kid can absolutely mash. He's going to be a top 25 prospect in the sport very soon. If the Sox can get something like Cowser and Basallo in a Cease deal, that would be great.

[ChiSox59]

11 hours ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Then there's a zero percent chance they will get him.

The market for Dylan Cease almost certainly will be 2 Top 100s plus maybe a semi-useful third piece. To get a similar pitcher on the open market would cost somewhere around 80-100m (in a long term commitment) more than Cease will be paid the next few years and alot of owners would prefer a trade than paying big money for a FA SP.

If BAL is gonna play the prospect hugging game again like at the deadline, then f*** em.

Cowser and Ortiz OR Hjerstad, Ortiz and Povich. 

 

I think Cease would smash $80-100M on the open market if he were a FA. 

[Chicago White Sox]

15 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think Cease would smash $80-100M on the open market if he were a FA. 

Jordan Montgomery has been less productive overall than Cease the past three years and MLBTR projects he will get 6/$150M while Fangraphs’ crowdsourcing predicts 5/$105M.  This is for a 31 year SP who strikes out less than 8 per nine innings and ranked 56th in Stuff+ over the past three seasons.  Cease is a full three years younger and ranked 5th in Stuff+ during this same period.  Despite a down 2023, I think he’d get a similar contract at minimum and probably even more IMO.  Modern front offices would kill to have Cease in their rotation.

[bmags]

I think Tink Hence’s tough second half makes them a difficult trade partner. But if you could get a Carlson, Wynn, victor Scott and hope that Carlson can turn into a better trade chip, that could be interesting.

Ill be honest, not totally sure what Carlsons value is to weigh this, but having a left side of the infield of Wynn + Montgomery would be a load of fun.

[striker]

https://x.com/chisportupdates/status/1726229329737114008?s=46&t=NtJZNPrBGW4stV_Hn8LUIw

Nightengale deleted his tweet. Makes me wonder if they are close and LAD asked him to delete it.

[striker]

It was in his notes, so no conspiracy 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2023/11/19/san-diego-padres-owner-peter-seidler-dies-mlb-peers/71642106007/

[bmags]

Didn’t realize there was a Dodgers rumor. Interesting. 
 

I figured a Cease trade would have been more likely to be post big FA moves,  but for teams up against the tax maybe we do see a move. (Don’t even know if dodgers are, but maybe they expect Shohei and want cheaper stuff to afford it)