Cease To Padres per Passan

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

https://x.com/dfeely14/status/1730641792310075492?s=46&t=YB66BSH8MdsOmPwZtTqy1w
 

FWIW - he is a Jomboy guy, so he probably does hear some stuff. That would be a pretty disappointing headliner IMO.

Unless they were getting like 4 other guys LIKE him, that would be an atrocious trade.

5'11 lefty starter? Pass.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

42 minutes ago, Quin said:

Getting the D-Backs #4 prospect (per MLB, #18 on Fangraphs mid-season rank) as the top guy would be borderline baseball malpractice.

His production for his age/level is really really impressive.

He's also a 5'11 160 pound lefty starter. I'd consider that one of the more risky headliners you could get.

[SoCalChiSox]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

Way too much from Arizona side.  I don’t think they trade Pfaadt or Lawlar no matter what.

Well Rosenthal etc have said they are going to get a massive haul, and if ARZ wants to have a real shot to win the bidding that's what it will prolly take.

It will take BOTH Pfaadt and Lawler to just have a shot to win since LAD could conceivably offer 3 Top 100s and if BAL gets its head out of its ass they could easily win this bidding if they are willing to stop prospect hugging. 

If Arizona is serious they have to put all their chips into the middle.

[Balta1701]

In general I'm not surprised at all to see people suggesting packages that are far lighter than what Sox fans have been suggesting they expect for Cease, as intolerably low as these packages would be, I think the stuff people have expected is equally over the top too high.

But the bigger point - I have no clue why the White Sox would accept a deal like any of these right now, rather than waiting until the trade deadline and hoping for a better market or better first half from Cease. 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

6 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Well Rosenthal etc have said they are going to get a massive haul, and if ARZ wants to have a real shot to win the bidding that's what it will prolly take.

It will take BOTH Pfaadt and Lawler to just have a shot to win since LAD could conceivably offer 3 Top 100s and if BAL gets its head out of its ass they could easily win this bidding if they are willing to stop prospect hugging. 

If Arizona is serious they have to put all their chips into the middle.

Agreed

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

In general I'm not surprised at all to see people suggesting packages that are far lighter than what Sox fans have been suggesting they expect for Cease, as intolerably low as these packages would be, I think the stuff people have expected is equally over the top too high.

But the bigger point - I have no clue why the White Sox would accept a deal like any of these right now, rather than waiting until the trade deadline and hoping for a better market or better first half from Cease. 

I really don’t think they can afford to wait until the deadline. It’s far too risky if Cease does come down with an injury.

[Balta1701]

Just now, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I really don’t think they can afford to wait until the deadline. It’s far too risky if Cease does come down with an injury.

Cease has been generally healthy so it's not a bad gamble...and be honest, is a package centered around the guy from Arizona or a package of Leody Tavares and scraps from Texas such an overwhelming package that, if Cease did get hurt, we'd complain forever about not taking it at the time?

[South Side Hit Men]

23 hours ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

You know my belief about budgets. 

Not spending money on free agency is a choice, not a necessity. If they want me to believe otherwise, open the damn books and prove it. 

Forbes estimates are the best the public can rely on from year to year.
They reported a $53.4M loss for the Sox. 

Teams with a Forbes reported 2022 Loss:

1. $139M New York Mets
2. $53M Chicago White Sox
3. $53M San Diego Padres
4. $34M Toronto Blue Jays
5. $27M Minnesota Twins
6. $27M Detroit Tigers
7. $10M Cincinnati Reds
8. $9M Colorado Rockies
9. $4M Philadelphia Phillies
10. $1M Miami Marlins

Jerry personally earns much more than his general partners due to the fact he is paid his ownership share of net income for the White Sox, but Jerry receives the entire share of what CSN earns on behalf of the White Sox (roughly 1/4, since he gets 25% of CSN net income for both the Sox and Bulls).

What the Sox receive is on the low end of revenue per viewers as reported by Forbes ($60M based on 58,000 average viewers) though there are other factors involved including demographics, the timing of the contracts and how teams are performing in any given season.

2022: Teams with $50M-$70M in fees 

• Arizona $68M / 21k viewers
• Baltimore $61M / 29k
• Chicago White Sox $60M / 58k
• Cleveland $55M / 59k
• Colorado $57M / 15k
• Detroit $60M / 47k
• Oakland $53M / 12k
• Pittsburgh $61M / 28k
• Saint Louis $59M / 91k
• Tampa Bay $56M / 52k
• Washington D. C. $61M / 21k

2022: Teams with 50k - 70k viewers

• Boston $97M / Viewers 68k 
• Chicago Cubs $99M / 57k
• Chicago White Sox $60M / 58k
• Cleveland $55M / 59k
• San Diego $47M / 51k
• San Francisco $92M / 64k
• Seattle $100M / 68k
• Tampa Bay $56M / 52k

The final factor is the fact that current positive or negative performance impacts future revenues.

The fact that Jerry Hahn & Tony royally screwed up their “multi-championship competitive window” really impacted 2022 and as we will see in the Spring 2023 and beyond. This reversion to normal White Sox payroll ($100M - $120M post World Series) while substantially lower on an inflation adjusted basis vis a vis substantial increases in MLB shared (TV and MLB.com) and Ballpark revenue / prices over the past two decades was to be expected.

The fact is the money by and large had been spent, but in typical Hahn / Jerry fashion in the worst possible way in terms of roster construction / filling team needs and failure to scout, draft and develop a solid core beyond what they received in tanking trades.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

Cease has been generally healthy so it's not a bad gamble...and be honest, is a package centered around the guy from Arizona or a package of Leody Tavares and scraps from Texas such an overwhelming package that, if Cease did get hurt, we'd complain forever about not taking it at the time?

Why are you assuming they are getting only garbage offers for Cease? 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Why are you assuming they are getting only garbage offers for Cease? 

Because you replied to a post where I was talking about the garbage offers posted here today so I assumed we were talking about the garbage offers being actively posted about and discussed right now, including in the post you replied to.

[SoCalChiSox]

2 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Why are you assuming they are getting only garbage offers for Cease? 

Yeah I don't believe we are getting garbage offers right now. Rosenthal is reliable. If there's a dozen teams in the hunt and LAD is "most aggressive" there's no way we are getting garbage offers.

I believe LAD has likely offered Busch plus a pitcher of our choice in the Top 100. I have a strong feeling that's already on the table. I think Chicago might be a bit squeamish cause even with a savage bat he's likely to end up at 1B and each of the pitchers have issues and they don't want to pick the wrong one. I think if LAD also throws in Pages it will be tough to resist, unless BAL gets serious. 

IMO, if BAL offers Cowser/Hjerstad, Norby and Hall, this will be a winning offer even if LAD throws in Pages.

But there's no way we are going to accept just one Top 100+. That's garbage. 

[Quin]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Cease has been generally healthy so it's not a bad gamble...and be honest, is a package centered around the guy from Arizona or a package of Leody Tavares and scraps from Texas such an overwhelming package that, if Cease did get hurt, we'd complain forever about not taking it at the time?

To be fair, Bowden's was a hypothetical.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Because you replied to a post where I was talking about the garbage offers posted here today so I assumed we were talking about the garbage offers being actively posted about and discussed right now, including in the post you replied to.

I haven’t seen one rumor about the Rangers offering a package led by Leody Taveras. Seems to me you are just doomsday posting.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

16 hours ago, Chick Mercedes said:

Snapshot in time. I believe Getz was serious about  defense. In a rebuild, you acquire assets, and fine tune for fit later by converting those assets into other parts. 

Assets are players who can run ,hit and field. Other organizations know this. I think the Sox tried having a bunch of DH' s already. Predictably it didn't end well.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

I haven’t seen one rumor about the Rangers offering a package led by Leody Taveras. Seems to me you are just doomsday posting.

 

[bmags]

so many times when I look at other systems I find myself just wanting to use Cease to re-do our 2023 first round draft.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

 

I’d say Caulfield has more credibility than Jim Bowden.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

I’d say Caulfield has more credibility than Jim Bowden.

None of us ever called it a rumor, I specifically called it a "Suggested package".

But a few things together - the Arizona package, Atlanta supposedly being involved, Bowden's speculation here - these are reasons to think that the White Sox fans are dramatically overestimating Cease's value.

And if that is the case, that's how I get to "I have no idea why you would move him right now rather than waiting to the deadline." As I said in the first post. 

[Quin]

9 minutes ago, bmags said:

so many times when I look at other systems I find myself just wanting to use Cease to re-do our 2023 first round draft.

Suggesting Teel or Bradfield in Red Sox or Orioles packages would be completely silly.

I'd never do that.

Never ever.

(I don't care if Teel got taken, still counts)

[fathom]

18 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

I’d say Caulfield has more credibility than Jim Bowden.

Bowden’s package for Glasnow was insane.  

[caulfield12]

29 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Forbes estimates are the best the public can rely on from year to year.
They reported a $53.4M loss for the Sox. 

Teams with a Forbes reported 2022 Loss:

1. $139M New York Mets
2. $53M Chicago White Sox
3. $53M San Diego Padres
4. $34M Toronto Blue Jays
5. $27M Minnesota Twins
6. $27M Detroit Tigers
7. $10M Cincinnati Reds
8. $9M Colorado Rockies
9. $4M Philadelphia Phillies
10. $1M Miami Marlins

Jerry personally earns much more than his general partners due to the fact he is paid his ownership share of net income for the White Sox, but Jerry receives the entire share of what CSN earns on behalf of the White Sox (roughly 1/4, since he gets 25% of CSN net income for both the Sox and Bulls).

What the Sox receive is on the low end of revenue per viewers as reported by Forbes ($60M based on 58,000 average viewers) though there are other factors involved including demographics, the timing of the contracts and how teams are performing in any given season.

2022: Teams with $50M-$70M in fees 

• Arizona $68M / 21k viewers
• Baltimore $61M / 29k
• Chicago White Sox $60M / 58k
• Cleveland $55M / 59k
• Colorado $57M / 15k
• Detroit $60M / 47k
• Oakland $53M / 12k
• Pittsburgh $61M / 28k
• Saint Louis $59M / 91k
• Tampa Bay $56M / 52k
• Washington D. C. $61M / 21k

2022: Teams with 50k - 70k viewers

• Boston $97M / Viewers 68k 
• Chicago Cubs $99M / 57k
• Chicago White Sox $60M / 58k
• Cleveland $55M / 59k
• San Diego $47M / 51k
• San Francisco $92M / 64k
• Seattle $100M / 68k
• Tampa Bay $56M / 52k

The final factor is the fact that current positive or negative performance impacts future revenues.

The fact that Jerry Hahn & Tony royally screwed up their “multi-championship competitive window” really impacted 2022 and as we will see in the Spring 2023 and beyond. This reversion to normal White Sox payroll ($100M - $120M post World Series) while substantially lower on an inflation adjusted basis vis a vis substantial increases in MLB shared (TV and MLB.com) and Ballpark revenue / prices over the past two decades was to be expected.

The fact is the money by and large had been spent, but in typical Hahn / Jerry fashion in the worst possible way in terms of roster construction / filling team needs and failure to scout, draft and develop a solid core beyond what they received in tanking trades.

Pretty telling you have three Central teams…White Sox spending frivolously, Twins and Tigers pushing chips in but pushing limits of what ownership is willing to spend and the the Guardians a profit machine due to a minuscule payroll and 2022 playoff/ticket sales…and finally the Royals turning a typical small market profit due to perennially low payrolls since 2016-17 and the current subsidy system.

The fact that the White Sox didn’t get hurt by the RSN/Bally fiasco tells you everything you need to know…that there’s not even a pretense of attempting to compete anymore at this point when rivals are basically tapped out and subtracting in Minnesota and Cleveland (Bieber, Quantrill, new manager) and Tigers only ones actually intent on improving their team for 2024.

[SoCalChiSox]

15 minutes ago, Quin said:

Suggesting Teel or Bradfield in Red Sox or Orioles packages would be completely silly.

I'd never do that.

Never ever.

(I don't care if Teel got taken, still counts)

Why not?

If Bradfield was the 3rd piece in a BAL deal why would we refuse that if we liked the top two pieces?

If Teel was paired with Mayer or Anthony, why would we say no?

You can't cry over spilled milk. Hahn sacrificed the pick in a last ditch attempt to get an allegedly close to MLB position player with an allegedly high floor so he could fill a roster spot on the cheap to save himself, and it didn't work. He didn't save himself and the player turned out not to be anywhere close to MLB ready, what does that have to do with Getz evaluating a trade package now?

It's over. We choked or in Teel's case, Boston stepped on our dick with work boots.

I would absolutely love to still have Kyle Teel. The draft is what it is. 

Edited December 1, 2023 by SoCalChiSox

[caulfield12]

20 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

I’d say Caulfield has more credibility than Jim Bowden.

Who here has been right more than 50% of the time?

Hahn was running around a 15-20% success rate in FA.  Heck, any serious mutual fund’s proprietary trading system/algorithm could be taught to double or triple that success rate in a matter of weeks.  

Or ChatGPT…for that matter.

Despite his education, Hahn was never smart about either evaluating players or what it takes to put together a winning team and/or organization.  Either that, or he was completely inept at convincing JR to buy into his vision…which we still really don’t know what that vision was (collecting top-rated minor league talent and just throwing it together with veterans, utility guys and theoretically dominant pen?).

ASB 2021-2023 teams were so lacking in an actual identity or defining characteristics other than “they simply beat themselves.”

 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

In general I'm not surprised at all to see people suggesting packages that are far lighter than what Sox fans have been suggesting they expect for Cease, as intolerably low as these packages would be, I think the stuff people have expected is equally over the top too high.

But the bigger point - I have no clue why the White Sox would accept a deal like any of these right now, rather than waiting until the trade deadline and hoping for a better market or better first half from Cease. 

Were you surprised by the Giolito return?

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Cease has been generally healthy so it's not a bad gamble...and be honest, is a package centered around the guy from Arizona or a package of Leody Tavares and scraps from Texas such an overwhelming package that, if Cease did get hurt, we'd complain forever about not taking it at the time?

Why do we care about a hypothetical Jim Bowden trade proposal?