Cease To Padres per Passan

[baseball_gal_aly]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

He still can’t explain why Giolito was worth a top 100 prospect just a few months ago but now quality SP are worth absolute dogshit.

Giolito had a 3.79 ERA or something like that when he was traded. He was pitching well for the Sox. He blew up after he got traded. His final stats don't do how he was pitching with the Sox justice. 

[baseball_gal_aly]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

I mean, I've said that Cease should return a top 100 prospect and one other piece, so I guess the Giolito return was "absolute dogshit". I don't have to explain the Giolito return since he brought back worse than Dogshit.

Wait, you think the Giolito return was dogshit? you must think Quero is a 1B or something then. 

[Chicago White Sox]

 

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I mean, I've said that Cease should return a top 100 prospect and one other piece, so I guess the Giolito return was "absolute dogshit". I don't have to explain the Giolito return since he brought back worse than Dogshit.

What?  You’re claiming two cheap years of Cease will bring in a similar return as two months of Giolito with no ability to QO him.  Please explain why.

[Balta1701]

Just now, baseball_gal_aly said:

Wait, you think the Giolito return was dogshit? you must think Quero is a 1B or something then. 

No, he said I think "pitchers are going for absolute dogshit".

I've said repeatedly that Cease should bring back 1 top 100 prospect and another piece to go with him. This is dramatically less than the monster packages people think he should return of 2 top 100 prospects + more, so they can't help but exaggerate and say that "Balta thinks Cease should bring back absolute dogshit". 

Do the transitive property - I think Cease should bring back 1 top 100 piece and one piece outside the top 100, that is more than Giolito brought back, and they insist that I think "Cease should bring back absolute dogshit", therefore - 1 top 100 piece plus another prospect is therefore absolute dogshit. Giolito's deal, therefore, brought back worse than what they just called dogshit, so it's not worth talking about.

[baseball_gal_aly]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

No, he said I think "pitchers are going for absolute dogshit".

I've said repeatedly that Cease should bring back 1 top 100 prospect and another piece to go with him. This is dramatically less than the monster packages people think he should return of 2 top 100 prospects + more, so they can't help but exaggerate and say that "Balta thinks Cease should bring back absolute dogshit". 

Do the transitive property - I think Cease should bring back 1 top 100 piece and one piece outside the top 100, that is more than Giolito brought back, and they insist that I think "Cease should bring back absolute dogshit", therefore - 1 top 100 piece plus another prospect is therefore absolute dogshit. Giolito's deal, therefore, brought back worse than what they just called dogshit, so it's not worth talking about.

No I'm with you, I agree on Cease's value. 

I'm just wondering why people think that what happened in 2023 with Cease doesn't matter. 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

Giolito had a 3.79 ERA or something like that when he was traded. He was pitching well for the Sox. He blew up after he got traded. His final stats don't do how he was pitching with the Sox justice. 

What was his FIP and xERA at the time?  And how did he do the year beforehand vs. Cease?

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What?  You’re claiming two cheap years of Cease will bring in a similar return as two months of Giolito with no ability to QO him.  Please explain why.

Because prices at the trade deadline went nuts, there was a large degree of desperation movement. Teams made moves they don't have to make now. 

We are at the end of the winter meetings and there has been no run on pitchers, there is 1 starter out of the top 10 or so off the board and he was a guy who had his current team say that they were keeping him which pushed the market for him. 

These guys will get deals, they will get their money, they will get fair deals, but the desperation of the LA teams last trade deadline is gone. The Angels overpaid, clearly, because they wanted to try to do something while they had Ohtani. The Dodgers overpaid for Lynn and Kelly because they desperately needed pitching, any pitching at all, and they were willing to move a guy outside of their top prospects to make it happen. The Mets took advantage of this market too, shedding some of their big contracts and bringing back real prospects despite big contracts. These teams will bring in pitchers this offseason, but the desperation is gone. 

[fathom]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

 

Busch, Rushing and a pitcher makes too much sense

[baseball_gal_aly]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Because prices at the trade deadline went nuts, there was a large degree of desperation movement. Teams made moves they don't have to make now. 

We are at the end of the winter meetings and there has been no run on pitchers, there is 1 starter out of the top 10 or so off the board and he was a guy who had his current team say that they were keeping him which pushed the market for him. 

These guys will get deals, they will get their money, they will get far deals but the desperation of the LA teams last trade deadline is gone. The Angels overpaid, clearly, because they wanted to try to do something while they had Ohtani. The Dodgers overpaid for Lynn and Kelly because they desperately needed pitching, any pitching at all, and they were willing to move a guy outside of their top prospects to make it happen. These teams will bring in pitchers this offseason, but the desperation is gone. 

Thank You. 

[baseball_gal_aly]

Just now, fathom said:

Busch, Rushing and a pitcher makes too much sense

No to Busch, he's 26 already. 

[ChiSoxFanMike]

Just now, fathom said:

Busch, Rushing and a pitcher makes too much sense

Rushing is too redundant with Quero unless they trade one of them.

[fathom]

Just now, baseball_gal_aly said:

No to Busch, he's 26 already. 

They have an opening at DH if all else fails, and he’s totally blocked in the Dodgers system. 

[SoCalChiSox]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I mean, I've said that Cease should return a top 100 prospect and one other piece, so I guess the Giolito return was "absolute dogshit". I don't have to explain the Giolito return since he brought back worse than Dogshit.

He brought back a consensus Top 100 player for one third of a season. Thats a curioua definition of "worse than dogshit" but then again your partner in crime insisted in her infinite wisdom that "we would have to throw in more" than just Giolito to get a JAG like Jonathan India, so respectfully I don't think you guys should be throwing stones from glass houses. 

And no...."one desperate team" did not distort the market for Giolito. You don't think BAL who can't spend any money isnr desperate for a cheap high quality starter so they don't get embarrassed again with a weak rotation in a short series? You don't think LAD will be desperate for a cheap high quality  starter after spending 600m on Ohtani when the odds are he will not return to form again after a 2nd TJS? ATL is one high quality pitcher away from being more or less unbeatable in a 5 or 7 game series where they can put an Ace or high end No. 2 on the mound every single night. You don't think they are desperate?

Desperation isn't a market distortion. 

Desperation = Demand

The market price is the highest amount at least one party is willing to pay.

Not ALL of our guys are all garbage all the time. I realize there is plenty to be negative about on this team, but not on every single issue regardless of the facts. 

 

[fathom]

Just now, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Rushing is too redundant with Quero unless they trade one of them.

Personally, I’m quite ok betting that 1 of the 2 bust.  Quero isn’t someone that’s so good that he makes me think getting depth at catcher isn’t important.  Also, it’s not like you don’t need two catchers anyways.

[fathom]

I skip over most of the Giolito talk, but someone said the Sox got a poor return for him?  Wow

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Because prices at the trade deadline went nuts, there was a large degree of desperation movement. Teams made moves they don't have to make now. 

We are at the end of the winter meetings and there has been no run on pitchers, there is 1 starter out of the top 10 or so off the board and he was a guy who had his current team say that they were keeping him which pushed the market for him. 

These guys will get deals, they will get their money, they will get far deals but the desperation of the LA teams last trade deadline is gone. The Angels overpaid, clearly, because they wanted to try to do something while they had Ohtani. The Dodgers overpaid for Lynn and Kelly because they desperately needed pitching, any pitching at all, and they were willing to move a guy outside of their top prospects to make it happen. These teams will bring in pitchers this offseason, but the desperation is gone. 

Why is the desperation gone?  How are you coming up with this theory?  And why were you oblivious to this desperation at the actual deadline when you said Lucas wouldn’t command a top 100 prospect when we all said he would?

The rumor is Yamamoto is going to get $300M…a guy who has never thrown a single pitch in the US.  Aaron Nola just got 7/$175M as a 30 year old free agent who had a similar season to Cease in 2023.  Guys like Lance Lynn are getting $10M guarantees despite being over the hill.  Teams are going crazy for SP right now, unfortunately the market is somewhat at a standstill until Ohtani and the top free agent pitchers sign.

I have no idea how you can honestly think this is not a strong seller’s market for those that hold cheap controllable, quality SP.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

4 minutes ago, fathom said:

Personally, I’m quite ok betting that 1 of the 2 bust.  Quero isn’t someone that’s so good that he makes me think getting depth at catcher isn’t important.  Also, it’s not like you don’t need two catchers anyways.

They have way too many holes to use their best trade chip on another catcher as the centerpiece. 

[fathom]

Just now, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

They have way too many holes to use their best trade chip on another catcher as the centerpiece. 

I know I said there’s a spot for Busch, but I’m more concerned with finding best talent and not trying to win 70 games than 65 next year.

[SoCalChiSox]

6 minutes ago, fathom said:

They have an opening at DH if all else fails, and he’s totally blocked in the Dodgers system. 

I agree...bring me both LHS bats and if u can get Knack as the third piece that's more than fine. 

 

[Balta1701]

Just now, SoCalChiSox said:

He brought back a consensus Top 100 player for one third of a season. Thats a curioua definition of "worse than dogshit"

 

The poster I was replying to was the one who said "one top 100 prospect + another piece (what I think Cease should bring)" is "dogshit". That makes Giolito's return "Worse than dogshit".

I think it's curious too, but people need to put words in my mouth. It's totally fair to run with that, if people are going to put words in my mouth then I'm taking them to their conclusion.

Quote

And no...."one desperate team" did not distort the market for Giolito. You don't think BAL who can't spend any money isnr desperate for a cheap high quality starter so they don't get embarrassed again with a weak rotation in a short series? You don't think LAD will be desperate for a cheap high quality  starter after spending 600m on Ohtani when the odds are he will not return to form again after a 2nd TJS? ATL is one high quality pitcher away from being more or less unbeatable in a 5 or 7 game series where they can put an Ace or high end No. 2 on the mound every single night. You don't think they are desperate?

No, I don't think Baltimore is "Desperate for a cheap, high quality starter." I think they know they could use additional starting depth, but I think they also know their prospects turning into decent big leaguers gives them a much longer window where they can be competitive, and that trading away too much too early risks shortcutting their window.

I think the Dodgers have always been quite prudent in who they give up, they are willing to part with pieces but not so much that it depletes their system, and if they spend on Ohtani they will know that they need to have some young talent left over to balance him out.

I think the Braves are looking to add starting pitching, but they also know how valuable having starting pitching prospect depth has been over the past 3 seasons because it's why they've been able to afford the big position player contracts they signed. They also know that there's no such thing as being "unbeatable in a 5 or 7 game series", and adding a pitcher with an xERA around 4 certainly doesn't make you immediately unbeatable. 

These teams aren't desperate. They know their resources and needs and are being calculating. 

[fathom]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

The poster I was replying to was the one who said "one top 100 prospect + another piece (what I think Cease should bring)" is "dogshit". That makes Giolito's return "Worse than dogshit".

I think it's curious too, but people need to put words in my mouth. It's totally fair to run with that, if people are going to put words in my mouth then I'm taking them to their conclusion.

No, I don't think Baltimore is "Desperate for a cheap, high quality starter." I think they know they could use additional starting depth, but I think they also know their prospects turning into decent big leaguers gives them a much longer window where they can be competitive, and that trading away too much too early risks shortcutting their window.

I think the Dodgers have always been quite prudent in who they give up, they are willing to part with pieces but not so much that it depletes their system, and if they spend on Ohtani they will know that they need to have some young talent left over to balance him out.

I think the Braves are looking to add starting pitching, but they also know how valuable having starting pitching prospect depth has been over the past 3 seasons because it's why they've been able to afford the big position player contracts they signed. They also know that there's no such thing as being "unbeatable in a 5 or 7 game series", and adding a pitcher with an xERA around 4 certainly doesn't make you immediately unbeatable. 

These teams aren't desperate. They know their resources and needs and are being calculating. 

Braves would give up their pitching depth in a heartbeat for Cease, but their system sucks now

[Tnetennba]

1 hour ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

this guy nailed it.

 

Yeah, well, Bennett is an idiot, so take that for what its worth.

[SoCalChiSox]

22 minutes ago, fathom said:

They have an opening at DH if all else fails, and he’s totally blocked in the Dodgers system. 

Yep. Even at 1B, as a LHH with 55 hit/60 power he will clean Vaughn's clock in terms of production. 

If he could hack it at 2B that would be a dream but he'll still be useful without that, esp where Getz is building a speed/defense based team, since someone has to be able to bring in all the tablesetters. 

[WestEddy]

30 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

I'm just wondering why people think that what happened in 2023 with Cease doesn't matter. 

Because teams have scouting departments who can see that the slight loss in velocity may be related to mechanics, and not injury or age? And even with the off year, Cease was still an above average pitcher. Just like teams won't be imagining that Blake Snell will win the Cy Young for the next 7 years.