Cease To Padres per Passan

[Quin]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Yup, read this and wanted to yell "2023 happened".

You're getting a guy who was an innings-eating mid rotation starter in 2023 and was a Cy Young caliber starter in 2022 hoping you can get him back to the earlier level. 

Not the same thing at all.

Yamamoto hasn't had an MLB season like Dylan Cease and just got the richest deal for a pitcher in major league history.

Shohei just had his second TJ and is way less durable and got $700M. I think the deal is worth it for his sheer star power.

You like to knock Cease hard for 2023, where he was 18th in fWAR ahead of Corbin Burnes. He was 0.2 behind Nola, who just got $175M and is 3 years older.

This is of course with the s%*# defense behind him. This video is kind of the perfect encapsulation of how the team failed him.

Cease is gonna cost a team a lot in terms of prospects. Probably not as much as most people here are dreaming, but it's not going to be Clint Frazier and Miguel Andujar.

[Chicago White Sox]

I hope Mike Elias cries when he ultimately gives up all these stud prospects for Cease.

[Snowy Demon]

Most posters here see Cease as 2022 version.  Yes, 2023 Cease did happen.  What is the average between 2 years?  That is what Cease put up in 2021 and for his career.  That is likely what Dylan Cease is realistically. 

Edited December 22, 2023 by Snowy Demon

[Balta1701]

Just now, Quin said:

You like to knock Cease hard for 2023, where he was 18th in fWAR ahead of Corbin Burnes. He was 0.2 behind Nola, who just got $175M and is 3 years older.

 

We will repeat this again. fWAR is missing what happened to Dylan Cease the last 2 years. It is designed to factor that out.

In 2022, Dylan Cease had the 10th best fWAR in the league. This is not Cy Young caliber if that's all you follow. Notably, Aaron Nola put up a 6.3 fWAR season, best in baseball - that's a Cy Young caliber season. Given fWAR, which you chose to quote at me, you would say that Dylan Cease has never put up a Cy Young caliber season and you'd agree with me that calling him a Cy Young caliber pitcher has never been correct and is a clear exaggeration.

Dylan Cease, of course, was 2nd in the AL Cy Young voting that year, so what happened? Well, that's the part that fWAR is factoring out. Dylan Cease in 2022 had excellent contact numbers against him in addition to his high strikeout numbers. fWAR filters this out by focusing on FIP - it assumes that if a guy is generating weak contact its due to luck and if a guy is giving up hard contact it is also due to luck. 

In 2022, my version of Dylan Cease is that in addition to high strikeout and walk numbers, his statcast performance was excellent, his hard hit numbers were at the top of the league. In 2023, his exit velocity numbers were in the bottom half of the league and his performance suffered as a consequence.

IF you want to call him Cy Young caliber in 2022, you're right, but that was because his slider in particular was producing very weak, pathetic contact against it. That pitch was hit hard in 2023. 

Fangraphs is filtering this out through the use of FIP, so you get an average performance that says "he's good but never has been Cy Young caliber" because it is calling the difference in those qualities luck.

If you go to a different version, B-R, you will find that Cease was #2 in MLB in 2022 in WAR. That's a Cy Young caliber pitcher and I agree with that. But you also find a guy who dropped off to 2.4 rWAR last year, because he gave up more hard contact and B-R doesn't filter that out. I also agree with that, and I think this is the correct way to look at him, I think that Fangraphs is incorrectly filtering things out that are important by not taking into account contact profile for this pitcher.

However, you don't get to pick both, you can't tell me he's a Cy Young caliber pitcher when Fangraphs says he's top 10-20 but not top 5, and then tell me that Fangraphs also thinks he has steady solid value from year to year. Is he a top 20 pitcher in MLB but not Cy Young caliber like Fangraphs thinks, or is he Cy Young caliber but a mid-rotation innings eater in 2023 (and 2021)?

 

[Chicago White Sox]

I hope Balta cries when we ultimately receive all these stud prospects for Cease

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

We will repeat this again. fWAR is missing what happened to Dylan Cease the last 2 years. It is designed to factor that out.

In 2022, Dylan Cease had the 10th best fWAR in the league. This is not Cy Young caliber if that's all you follow. Notably, Aaron Nola put up a 6.3 fWAR season, best in baseball - that's a Cy Young caliber season. Given fWAR, which you chose to quote at me, you would say that Dylan Cease has never put up a Cy Young caliber season and you'd agree with me that calling him a Cy Young caliber pitcher has never been correct and is a clear exaggeration.

Dylan Cease, of course, was 2nd in the AL Cy Young voting that year, so what happened? Well, that's the part that fWAR is factoring out. Dylan Cease in 2022 had excellent contact numbers against him in addition to his high strikeout numbers. fWAR filters this out by focusing on FIP - it assumes that if a guy is generating weak contact its due to luck and if a guy is giving up hard contact it is also due to luck. 

In 2022, my version of Dylan Cease is that in addition to high strikeout and walk numbers, his statcast performance was excellent, his hard hit numbers were at the top of the league. In 2023, his exit velocity numbers were in the bottom half of the league and his performance suffered as a consequence.

IF you want to call him Cy Young caliber in 2022, you're right, but that was because his slider in particular was producing very weak, pathetic contact against it. That pitch was hit hard in 2023. 

Fangraphs is filtering this out through the use of FIP, so you get an average performance that says "he's good but never has been Cy Young caliber" because it is calling the difference in those qualities luck.

If you go to a different version, B-R, you will find that Cease was #2 in MLB in 2022 in WAR. That's a Cy Young caliber pitcher and I agree with that. But you also find a guy who dropped off to 2.4 rWAR last year, because he gave up more hard contact and B-R doesn't filter that out. I also agree with that, and I think this is the correct way to look at him, I think that Fangraphs is incorrectly filtering things out that are important by not taking into account contact profile for this pitcher.

However, you don't get to pick both, you can't tell me he's a Cy Young caliber pitcher when Fangraphs says he's top 10-20 but not top 5, and then tell me that Fangraphs also thinks he has steady solid value from year to year. Is he a top 20 pitcher in MLB but not Cy Young caliber like Fangraphs thinks, or is he Cy Young caliber but a mid-rotation innings eater in 2023 (and 2021)?

 

What is a top 10-20 pitcher in mlb to you? How is that not an average #1 or at worst a really good #2?  Mid rotation guy is an average #3, not even close to comparable to top 10-20 in mlb.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Oh, and to take it a step further, how many top 20 pitchers in mlb will make less money than Cease over the next two years and how many of that group are available via trade?

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

What is a top 10-20 pitcher in mlb to you? How is that not an average #1 or at worst a really good #2?  Mid rotation guy is an average #3, not even close to comparable to top 10-20 in mlb.

Dylan Cease in 2023 was roughly #60 in rWAR (it's hard to estimate since they don't make a full list easy to find, he was #64 in WAR according to ESPN where I can sort it). Is a guy who is #2 in 2022 and #64 in 2023 a top 10 starter? I don't think so, and I would look elsewhere if I had to pay a top 10 in MLB price for a top 60 starter...unless you could prove to me that he was the guy he was in 2022 again or at least close to it.  

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Dylan Cease in 2023 was roughly #60 in rWAR (it's hard to estimate since they don't make a full list easy to find, he was #64 in WAR according to ESPN where I can sort it). Is a guy who is #2 in 2022 and #64 in 2023 a top 10 starter? I don't think so, and I would look elsewhere if I had to pay a top 10 in MLB price for a top 60 starter...unless you could prove to me that he was the guy he was in 2022 again or at least close to it.  

rWAR as in Baseball Reference’s WAR?  If so, they don’t account for the s%*# defense that Cease played behind last year, so not sure why you’d use that version of the stat.

[ChiSox59]

16 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I hope Balta cries when we ultimately receive all these stud prospects for Cease

He's really dying on the hill. 

Edited December 22, 2023 by ChiSox59

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

He's really dying on the hill. 

He’s going to be the only Sox fan upset if we do in fact get a haul.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

rWAR as in Baseball Reference’s WAR?  If so, they don’t account for the s%*# defense that Cease played behind last year, so not sure why you’d use that version of the stat.

Naw but his xERA (175th in baseball, qualified pitchers) and wOBA (182nd in baseball, qualified pitchers) do and they tell the same story.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

He’s going to be the only Sox fan upset if we do in fact get a haul.

Naw, I will compliment you guys on being right like I did last summer. 

The difference is y'all act like I'm betraying the White Sox by pointing any of this out, it's a personal attack on every White Sox fan, it's some horrible offense because if I write any of this then some other team's scouts might see it!

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

rWAR as in Baseball Reference’s WAR?  If so, they don’t account for the s%*# defense that Cease played behind last year, so not sure why you’d use that version of the stat.

because it fits his weak narrative.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Naw but his xERA (175th in baseball, qualified pitchers) and wOBA (182nd in baseball, qualified pitchers) do and they tell the same story.

You think there were 175+ qualified pitchers in baseball last year?

[TheFutureIsNear]

Cease and Eloy to Reds for:

Jonathan India, Edwin Arroyo, Connor Phillips, Chase Petty, Sal Stewart, and Ricardo Cabrera 

 

Reds keep Marte and Lowder but give up 1/2 of their top 10 for the Sox “haul”

 

Also frees up $ for the Sox to take shots in free agency on guys to flip later for more prospects later.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

1 minute ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Cease and Eloy to Reds for:

Jonathan India, Edwin Arroyo, Connor Phillips, Chase Petty, Sal Stewart, and Ricardo Cabrera 

 

Reds keep Marte and Lowder but give up 1/2 of their top 10 for the Sox “haul”

 

Also frees up $ for the Sox to take shots in free agency on guys to flip later for more prospects later.

Reds say no.  

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Cease and Eloy to Reds for:

Jonathan India, Edwin Arroyo, Connor Phillips, Chase Petty, Sal Stewart, and Ricardo Cabrera 

 

Reds keep Marte and Lowder but give up 1/2 of their top 10 for the Sox “haul”

 

Also frees up $ for the Sox to take shots in free agency on guys to flip later for more prospects later.

How many of those guys need 40 man protection? 

[ChiSoxFanMike]

Orioles fans on the Orioles forum say we are being delusional by expecting a haul for Cease. Hope they read this and realize that Joey Ortiz being the headliner of their proposals is laughable.

[SonofaRoache]

It's sad, but at this point none of this matters. We don't trade for high impact proven talent and won't spend even 100 million on a quality free agent. Feels like there is no hope to be a consistent winner and like we are wasting our time on this organization. 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You think there were 175+ qualified pitchers in baseball last year?

No that's how Baseball-Savant does things though, it's a little messy.

If I filter to minimum 500 PAs against someone, Cease was 41st on wOBA and 38th on xERA in 2023. Very close to Clevinger, slightly behind Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Bassitt.

[SoCalChiSox]

5 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Cease and Eloy to Reds for:

Jonathan India, Edwin Arroyo, Connor Phillips, Chase Petty, Sal Stewart, and Ricardo Cabrera 

 

Reds keep Marte and Lowder but give up 1/2 of their top 10 for the Sox “haul”

 

Also frees up $ for the Sox to take shots in free agency on guys to flip later for more prospects later.

How about Lowder, Petty, Arroyo and Jorge? 

If Heyman is right and we're getting 4 of a teams top 10, then Getz should be super aggressive. 

India does nothing for us.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

8 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

How about Lowder, Petty, Arroyo and Jorge? 

If Heyman is right and we're getting 4 of a teams top 10, then Getz should be super aggressive. 

India does nothing for us.

Reds say no easy.  I'd take the first 3 alone and run

[ChiSox59]

18 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Orioles fans on the Orioles forum say we are being delusional by expecting a haul for Cease. Hope they read this and realize that Joey Ortiz being the headliner of their proposals is laughable.

Then they can pay $175 for a mid rotation starter in Jordan Montgomery , or continue to lack the pitching necessary to advance in the playoffs.  The latter worked out great for them in 2023! 

[ChiSoxFanMike]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

Then they can pay $175 for a mid rotation starter in Jordan Montgomery , or continue to lack the pitching necessary to advance in the playoffs.  The latter worked out great for them in 2023! 

They have been so brainwashed by Elias’ prospect hugging that they don’t want to give up anyone of significance and think they can obtain Cease for their scraps.

Those people are not rational.