Cease To Padres per Passan

[Whisox05]

 

[ptatc]

30 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

because it fits his weak narrative.

He's very reliant on what happened last year in all discussions. 

Things that happened before don't count and White Sox players will not improve over last year regardless of their past performance. 

[bmags]

Would be fun to take Kyle Harrison + the giants 2023 draft imo. As we know after I hallucinated Paul DeJong's height, I'm extremely intrigued at how tall of a team we could put together in a few years. I don't know if it makes us better, but there is no doubt that we would be taller.

Bryce Eldridge would help a lot. Kyle Harrison? The good news, because I also thought he was 6'5 but just checked so I didn't do it again, is he is the same height as Dylan Cease so we are not getting shorter per se.

And I just like Walker Martin ❤️

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

35 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

No that's how Baseball-Savant does things though, it's a little messy.

If I filter to minimum 500 PAs against someone, Cease was 41st on wOBA and 38th on xERA in 2023. Very close to Clevinger, slightly behind Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Bassitt.

Ok now filter 2022-2023 with a minimum 1000 PAs and where’s he at? How many of the guys ahead of him are cheaper and actually available?

[Balta1701]

Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Ok now filter 2022-2023 with a minimum 1000 PAs and where’s he at? How many of the guys ahead of him are cheaper and actually available?

I have no idea how to do this on Baseball-Savant or any website. 

And it still misses a big part of the problem - 2023 Cease was way worse than 2022 Cease. 2022 Cease was elite and you could ask for an elite pitcher price based on that. 2023 still existed and happened, and was way more recent than 2022.

[ptatc]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I have no idea how to do this on Baseball-Savant or any website. 

And it still misses a big part of the problem - 2023 Cease was way worse than 2022 Cease. 2022 Cease was elite and you could ask for an elite pitcher price based on that. 2023 still existed and happened, and was way more recent than 2022.

1 season is way more recent? 

[SoCalChiSox]

47 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Orioles fans on the Orioles forum say we are being delusional by expecting a haul for Cease. Hope they read this and realize that Joey Ortiz being the headliner of their proposals is laughable.

Yeah I saw that on their board. 

It will take a Top 50 overall prospect plus a bottom 50 plus another quality piece or two.

Getz rumored ask of Cowser + Norby + something else that isn't just a lottery ticket is more than reasonable in this market. 

BAL fans don't seem to understand that there is no path to winning in the playoffs without a serious upgrade in their rotation and their cheap owner won't pay for it so this is the only ballgame in town.

If Heyman is correct that the market is such that it will cost 4 of a teams top 10 and if Getz truly prefers Cowser as his OF LHS of choice then he should be able to get him and Norby and a pitcher like Povich and also either Beavers or Bradfield too. There should be 4 quality pieces here.

I dont expect them to make a deal because after all Mike Elias isn't known as the Dickless Wonder for no reason.

 

 

[SoxBlanco]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

We will repeat this again. fWAR is missing what happened to Dylan Cease the last 2 years. It is designed to factor that out.

In 2022, Dylan Cease had the 10th best fWAR in the league. This is not Cy Young caliber if that's all you follow. Notably, Aaron Nola put up a 6.3 fWAR season, best in baseball - that's a Cy Young caliber season. Given fWAR, which you chose to quote at me, you would say that Dylan Cease has never put up a Cy Young caliber season and you'd agree with me that calling him a Cy Young caliber pitcher has never been correct and is a clear exaggeration.

Dylan Cease, of course, was 2nd in the AL Cy Young voting that year, so what happened? Well, that's the part that fWAR is factoring out. Dylan Cease in 2022 had excellent contact numbers against him in addition to his high strikeout numbers. fWAR filters this out by focusing on FIP - it assumes that if a guy is generating weak contact its due to luck and if a guy is giving up hard contact it is also due to luck. 

In 2022, my version of Dylan Cease is that in addition to high strikeout and walk numbers, his statcast performance was excellent, his hard hit numbers were at the top of the league. In 2023, his exit velocity numbers were in the bottom half of the league and his performance suffered as a consequence.

IF you want to call him Cy Young caliber in 2022, you're right, but that was because his slider in particular was producing very weak, pathetic contact against it. That pitch was hit hard in 2023. 

Fangraphs is filtering this out through the use of FIP, so you get an average performance that says "he's good but never has been Cy Young caliber" because it is calling the difference in those qualities luck.

If you go to a different version, B-R, you will find that Cease was #2 in MLB in 2022 in WAR. That's a Cy Young caliber pitcher and I agree with that. But you also find a guy who dropped off to 2.4 rWAR last year, because he gave up more hard contact and B-R doesn't filter that out. I also agree with that, and I think this is the correct way to look at him, I think that Fangraphs is incorrectly filtering things out that are important by not taking into account contact profile for this pitcher.

However, you don't get to pick both, you can't tell me he's a Cy Young caliber pitcher when Fangraphs says he's top 10-20 but not top 5, and then tell me that Fangraphs also thinks he has steady solid value from year to year. Is he a top 20 pitcher in MLB but not Cy Young caliber like Fangraphs thinks, or is he Cy Young caliber but a mid-rotation innings eater in 2023 (and 2021)?

 

This whole argument reminds me of Matthew Berry’s fantasy football draft manifesto every year where he talks about how you can take stats and make any single player look good or bad. 

In the end, all that matters is what your gut is telling you about how the player will do this upcoming season. Or in this case, how do other GMs think Cease will perform over the next couple of years?

Balta, out of curiosity, how do you think Cease will do over the course of the next two seasons?

[Chisoxfn]

1 hour ago, Quin said:

Yamamoto hasn't had an MLB season like Dylan Cease and just got the richest deal for a pitcher in major league history.

Shohei just had his second TJ and is way less durable and got $700M. I think the deal is worth it for his sheer star power.

You like to knock Cease hard for 2023, where he was 18th in fWAR ahead of Corbin Burnes. He was 0.2 behind Nola, who just got $175M and is 3 years older.

This is of course with the s%*# defense behind him. This video is kind of the perfect encapsulation of how the team failed him.

Cease is gonna cost a team a lot in terms of prospects. Probably not as much as most people here are dreaming, but it's not going to be Clint Frazier and Miguel Andujar.

This - I think for anyone who wants him and doesn't want to see their budget or luxury tax explode - the price for Cease went up given how much money has been handed out.  It just take(s) one team and you never know - once one team decides it will pay up - if the fit of prospects doesn't work for us - a 3rd team could always interject and better align.  

I'm in the camp of get talent - I don't care of it is pitching or positional. Just maximize talent.  

[Chisoxfn]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I hope Mike Elias cries when he ultimately gives up all these stud prospects for Cease.

I don't understand why everyone thinks Elias is under any pressure whatsoever to make this move.  I don't see their ownership sitting their demanding excellence in terms of world series. Elias obviously cares about it - but I don't see any gun to his head to go out and act. This is a guy leading a franchise that has poor ownership and which really hasn't made any major buy trade going back the last decade (unless I'm forgetting something). 

Quite frankly - Elias giving up the farm for Cease would be so foolish. Unless they plan on using him for a year and than spinning him off a year later.  He needs to build within his farm and operate as if he were the Rays.  This is ultiamtely how the Sox should have managed their post-rebuild era as well.  

If Elias gives up a bunch of chips for Cease - his ability to refill his cupboard is going to be limited, given fact ownership is NOT going to give him upper tier payrolls and enable him to sign a bunch of free agents and others.  

Hahn should have operated this way too - he should have been constantly churning his roster to maximize talent, buy low, sell high, and leverage FA to fill holes (in modest way) vs. having any delusion(s) his owner was going to buck his long-term history and let him sign the Bryce Harpers, Machado(s) of the world. Instead Hahn signed a bunch of over the hill free agents and / or relievers to big money deals, handed out contracts to guys who lost hunger after getting paid at young ages, and did nothing to churn the actual roster and proactively manage and churn things.  

So yeah - if Elias wants to do it - great - but if I were him, I wouldn't be doing so. If anything - I would use my chips to go get top pitching prospects if that is where I thought I had a void to ensure I maintain control. 

[bmags]

6 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

This - I think for anyone who wants him and doesn't want to see their budget or luxury tax explode - the price for Cease went up given how much money has been handed out.  It just take(s) one team and you never know - once one team decides it will pay up - if the fit of prospects doesn't work for us - a 3rd team could always interject and better align.  

I'm in the camp of get talent - I don't care of it is pitching or positional. Just maximize talent.  

With pitching talent I'm ok getting it, my one caveat is I do not want ones that are still in A ball. I'd like guys that have shown they can build up their innings to some degree and already developed something of a pitch in pro ball.

[Balta1701]

10 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

This whole argument reminds me of Matthew Berry’s fantasy football draft manifesto every year where he talks about how you can take stats and make any single player look good or bad. 

In the end, all that matters is what your gut is telling you about how the player will do this upcoming season. Or in this case, how do other GMs think Cease will perform over the next couple of years?

Balta, out of curiosity, how do you think Cease will do over the course of the next two seasons?

Straight up answer - I don't know. I have seen two fundamentally different versions of Dylan Cease over the past 2 years. Projecting him to be in-between those two doesn't fit the pitcher that I saw, he has been two fundamentally different people.

Some of the same people who are saying that Cease should return a fortune now were saying in April that Cease was in trouble if he couldn't get his fastball back. They were right at that time, and I doubted them at that time because historically his velocity got better during the summer. 

I would have paid through the roof for 2022 Dylan Cease. I wouldn't trade for 2023 Dylan Cease if I was trying to build a competitive rotation.

[Chisoxfn]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

With pitching talent I'm ok getting it, my one caveat is I do not want ones that are still in A ball. I'd like guys that have shown they can build up their innings to some degree and already developed something of a pitch in pro ball.

I think the Reds are an intriguing match-up and still believe the Braves will play ball. I don't know Yankees / Rays system - but I would presume both of those teams would be aggressive as well.  Reds intrigue because I do believe they are trying to push their chips in a bit more.  The proposed deal earlier which included Eloy would have been intriguing - Reds would take on too much money I think with Eloy - but if JR actually ponied up cash to send (which he won't) - than you could start to make things a bit more interesting. 

I think Eloy's bat would play pretty well in that stadium.  I doubt Reds would do the trade - but I like the idea and I think it fits in terms of the sort of thing Getz would try to do (in one fell swoop that would really change the next 12-18 month trajectory of the roster / depth).  

[Quin]

The Dodgers just spent $375M on a pitcher who has never thrown in MLB.

$125M (and prospect capital) on a glass pitcher who can't sniff Cease's durability.

If Dylan Cease's 2022 doesn't count, I'm not sure why Aaron Nola - who again, is 3 years older - gets to count his 2022. And just got $175M.

Snell is an up and down pitcher with two ridiculous seasons under his belt. He's gonna get paid. In fact, the only two years he's thrown 180+ innings were his Cy Young seasons. Otherwise, it's minus 130, with ERAs ranging from 3.30 to 4+.

Montgomery is gonna get paid off of one postseason run.

I fail to see the argument for why Dylan Cease's market would be anything but a haul.

[SoCalChiSox]

1 minute ago, Chisoxfn said:

I don't understand why everyone thinks Elias is under any pressure whatsoever to make this move.  I don't see their ownership sitting their demanding excellence in terms of world series. Elias obviously cares about it - but I don't see any gun to his head to go out and act. This is a guy leading a franchise that has poor ownership and which really hasn't made any major buy trade going back the last decade (unless I'm forgetting something). 

Quite frankly - Elias giving up the farm for Cease would be so foolish. Unless they plan on using him for a year and than spinning him off a year later.  He needs to build within his farm and operate as if he were the Rays.  This is ultiamtely how the Sox should have managed their post-rebuild era as well.  

If Elias gives up a bunch of chips for Cease - his ability to refill his cupboard is going to be limited, given fact ownership is NOT going to give him upper tier payrolls and enable him to sign a bunch of free agents and others.  

Hahn should have operated this way too - he should have been constantly churning his roster to maximize talent, buy low, sell high, and leverage FA to fill holes (in modest way) vs. having any delusion(s) his owner was going to buck his long-term history and let him sign the Bryce Harpers, Machado(s) of the world. Instead Hahn signed a bunch of over the hill free agents and / or relievers to big money deals, handed out contracts to guys who lost hunger after getting paid at young ages, and did nothing to churn the actual roster and proactively manage and churn things.  

So yeah - if Elias wants to do it - great - but if I were him, I wouldn't be doing so. If anything - I would use my chips to go get top pitching prospects if that is where I thought I had a void to ensure I maintain control. 

No one is asking Dickless Mike to give up the farm. Instead, people are simply expecting him to be rational i.e. if he's got multiple prospects that are blocked and/or at duplicative positions where the prospect pool is deep and with other guys coming up soon too and if they can address their real needs in their window via trade and without spending money, it would make sense to move at least a couple of those duplicative and/or blocked prospects. 

If he gave up Cowser or Hjerstad, the other would remain plus numerous other OF prospects.

Norby is completely blocked.

Povich probably isn't blocked because their rotation is trash but he's not exactly super high end like Grayson so it's not a massive ask.

I dont see what the issue is. If he wants to burn let him burn. If he wants to be rational and do a mutually beneficial deal where they still retain an overwhelming amount of studs including Holliday, Basallo, Mayo etc, there's a deal to be had where he can come out as a big winner for the fans and the cheap owner and still keep almost all his studs. 

If only he had a sack.

[TheFutureIsNear]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

How many of those guys need 40 man protection? 

With the amount of trash on the Sox 40 does it really matter?

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

4 minutes ago, Quin said:

The Dodgers just spent $375M on a pitcher who has never thrown in MLB.

$125M (and prospect capital) on a glass pitcher who can't sniff Cease's durability.

If Dylan Cease's 2022 doesn't count, I'm not sure why Aaron Nola - who again, is 3 years older - gets to count his 2022. And just got $175M.

Snell is an up and down pitcher with two ridiculous seasons under his belt. He's gonna get paid. In fact, the only two years he's thrown 180+ innings were his Cy Young seasons. Otherwise, it's minus 130, with ERAs ranging from 3.30 to 4+.

Montgomery is gonna get paid off of one postseason run.

I fail to see the argument for why Dylan Cease's market would be anything but a haul.

Good point regarding Nola. Same career ERA+ as Cease but he’s 3 years older. And he just got $172M! There is tremendous surplus value to Cease over the next two seasons considering what he’s getting paid.

[ChiSox59]

7 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

With the amount of trash on the Sox 40 does it really matter?

I mean, don't get me wrong, there is a fair share of trash.  But a lot of it has been recently acquired.  I think we're pretty much down to Deivi Garcia, Sammy Peralta, Lane Ramsey, Carlos Perez, and  Zach Remillard as legitimate DFA candidates.  I just listed of 5 guys - but its not very hard to squint and see each of those guys playing a role on the 2024 club - especially the relivers, and even Perez as the third catcher. Guessing Peralta and Remillard are next on the chopping block.  

[Snowy Demon]

8 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

No one is asking Dickless Mike to give up the farm. Instead, people are simply expecting him to be rational i.e. if he's got multiple prospects that are blocked and/or at duplicative positions where the prospect pool is deep and with other guys coming up soon too and if they can address their real needs in their window via trade and without spending money, it would make sense to move at least a couple of those duplicative and/or blocked prospects. 

If he gave up Cowser or Hjerstad, the other would remain plus numerous other OF prospects.

Norby is completely blocked.

Povich probably isn't blocked because their rotation is trash but he's not exactly super high end like Grayson so it's not a massive ask.

I dont see what the issue is. If he wants to burn let him burn. If he wants to be rational and do a mutually beneficial deal where they still retain an overwhelming amount of studs including Holliday, Basallo, Mayo etc, there's a deal to be had where he can come out as a big winner for the fans and the cheap owner and still keep almost all his studs. 

If only he had a sack.

Any "reasonable" person will trade Santander and Hays over Kjerstad and Cowser.  They have truly blocked prospects such as Norby and to a less degree Ortiz.  I am sure the Orioles will make a trade or two.  Keep in mind that they do not have to make a trade with the White Sox. 

[Chisoxfn]

15 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

No one is asking Dickless Mike to give up the farm. Instead, people are simply expecting him to be rational i.e. if he's got multiple prospects that are blocked and/or at duplicative positions where the prospect pool is deep and with other guys coming up soon too and if they can address their real needs in their window via trade and without spending money, it would make sense to move at least a couple of those duplicative and/or blocked prospects. 

If he gave up Cowser or Hjerstad, the other would remain plus numerous other OF prospects.

Norby is completely blocked.

Povich probably isn't blocked because their rotation is trash but he's not exactly super high end like Grayson so it's not a massive ask.

I dont see what the issue is. If he wants to burn let him burn. If he wants to be rational and do a mutually beneficial deal where they still retain an overwhelming amount of studs including Holliday, Basallo, Mayo etc, there's a deal to be had where he can come out as a big winner for the fans and the cheap owner and still keep almost all his studs. 

If only he had a sack.

And if I were him - I would take those blocked prospects and potentially trade my guys in those spots and let the blocked prospects get a chance so that I can continue and extend my run so you can hopefully have more chances to fluke into a series.  Or - I would take those blocked prospects and package them up for a blue chip prospect in a prospect for prospect deal (maybe with a 3rd team involved as these deals can be hard).  

I don't know that I would be leveraging surplus assets for 2 years of Cease - if I were in the Oriole's position. If I'm the Yankees, Dodgers, Braves - sure.  

[SoCalChiSox]

5 minutes ago, Snowy Demon said:

Any "reasonable" person will trade Santander and Hays over Kjerstad and Cowser.  They have truly blocked prospects such as Norby and to a less degree Ortiz.  I am sure the Orioles will make a trade or two.  Keep in mind that they do not have to make a trade with the White Sox. 

If quality SP at a cheap price is what they seek they aren't going to get anything in the same zip code and maybe not even in the same Milky Way as Dylan Cease by trading Santander and Hays.

Why would someone give up a quality pitcher controlled for multiple years for a  person estimated to be paid around 12-13m this year in arbitration for barely over 2 WAR by fangraphs projection and who is only controlled one year? The salary alone basically almost wipes out any value. 

Hays will be making less than that but he's not expected to even be a 2 WAR player next year.

No one will give up anything meaningful in the pitching market to get stuck paying money for these guys. 

But they are free to try. 

[SoCalChiSox]

8 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

And if I were him - I would take those blocked prospects and potentially trade my guys in those spots and let the blocked prospects get a chance so that I can continue and extend my run so you can hopefully have more chances to fluke into a series.  Or - I would take those blocked prospects and package them up for a blue chip prospect in a prospect for prospect deal (maybe with a 3rd team involved as these deals can be hard).  

I don't know that I would be leveraging surplus assets for 2 years of Cease - if I were in the Oriole's position. If I'm the Yankees, Dodgers, Braves - sure.  

Unless there's a sale, the Orioles window with this particular group of kids isn't that long. Once the high end guys get to arbitration there's no way they can keep these guys without ballooning their budget and their owner is worse than JR. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

55 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I hope Balta cries when we ultimately receive all these stud prospects for Cease

What is all this hoping Elias and Balta cries? I certainly hope that you don't cry if you are ultimately disappointed with the return for Cease.

When you expect a haul that just means different things to different people and we won't know if it was a haul for years to come.

You can judge a trade as quickly as you want to and hope for immediate tears but the end result should be contributions that lead to playoff wins.

Baltimore is currently in a position to get those either with or without Cease. They have a truckload of talent that they can use to trade with any team.

Santander ,Hays and Mullins will be traded eventually and Baltimore will replace them from among Holliday,  Cowser, Kjerstad, Beavers. Picking the right ones at the right time is crucial to Baltimores stay at the top. Trading a player who turns into a star while retaining a bust are franchise altering decisions. Teams should prospect hug. Tatis Jr. & Semien perhaps Bassitt all have had better careers so far than anyone who the Sox got back in any of the rebuild trades. Cease may or may not fit into that Sox that shine briefly for 1 or 2 season but can't sustain it for a full career arc but I can't blame any team suspicious and cautious about our young but incredibly fragile and inconsistent core guys. Robert finally breaks out and now he's worth a fortune after one year of fulfilling his promise. What happens next year if he produces like he had been before 2023 ?

Cease disappointed last year and he's still worth a haul but we all know it's your last season that counts the most towards your value . If that isn't true then why keep saying Robert is untradable because he's worth too much for any team to afford. In the Sox situation and looking at Robert's career thus far that is precisely when you should trade him. How much more
can his value go up ? How much value did Moncada gain after 2019. When was Eloy's peak value ? How about Giolito ? When was Rodon's peak value and what did the Sox get for him ?

What would Cease and Robert be worth together for Baltimore ? Let's say they keep Holliday but all their other prospects are available do you think a 2 for 7 or 8 very good prospects wouldn't be enough to excite the fan base or jump start this team for at least a run at the Central by 2026 ? Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo. Ortiz, Beavers, Hall, Basallo, Norby, Westburg, Fabian, Bradfield, Jr., Povich, McDermott, Horvath. That's 14 guys. Take 7 of them and a couple lottery tickets and let's get this party started!

 

[Snowy Demon]

7 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Unless there's a sale, the Orioles window with this particular group of kids isn't that long. Once the high end guys get to arbitration there's no way they can keep these guys without ballooning their budget and their owner is worse than JR. 

Perhaps not.  That may precisely be the reason why they should not empty their farm to get a pitcher who had one elite season but had a down year in 2023.  The Orioles normally acquire pitchers who are not considered to have great upsides but have some tools to do so.  If needed to be, they can trade these guys for other prospects in the future.  This is what the Rays have been doing for years.  

 

Yennier Cano, Danny Coulombe, Felix Bautista, Kyle Bradish, and Tyler Wells did not cost the Orioles much at all.  Kyle Bradish was arguably one of the top 10 starters in 2023.  He has 5 years of control.  Felix Bautista was one of the best relief pitchers in all of baseball before the injury.  I am sure all of them will be in high demand if they were available.  

[ChiSoxFanMike]

Some other Orioles fan on that forum just said “I think Ortiz, Norby, and a lottery ticket is plenty”

Lol.