Cease To Padres per Passan

[Springfield Soxfan]

If teams will not pay the price for Cease then keep him.  

[Chicago White Sox]

57 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Tyler Glasnow, he cost Ryan Pepiot. 

For one year of a guy made of glass with a $25M salary.

[Chicago White Sox]

55 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

 

It is possible for an ask of 3-4 prospects to have more value than 1. This is why fathoms reaction was “yeah he’s not moving if they’re asking that”.

The good news though for my “agenda” as y’all say is that this is a bad enough strategy that it just increases the chances Cease doesn’t move. 

Jackson Holiday alone is worth more than Cease, so not even a remotely similar situation.

But you keep saying this is a “bad strategy”…based on what exactly?  This is negotiating 101 when you have a top asset with multiple interested parties.

[Chick Mercedes]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

If you did a little of that in November, fine, you’re probably not going to scare away the fish. If you’re doing that in December, they’ll just understand that you’re not serious and go figure out other options.

That wouldn't explain how the White Sox got Lucas Giolito, Dane Dunning, and Reynaldo Lopez for Adam Eaton. I'm sure they asked for more.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

1 hour ago, Springfield Soxfan said:

If teams will not pay the price for Cease then keep him.  

Yes, an arroyo and petty ++ is an easy no for me. I’ll take the risk and hold until the deadline. You can beat that

[Timmy U]

26 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Yes, an arroyo and petty ++ is an easy no for me. I’ll take the risk and hold until the deadline. You can beat that

Yeah, Arroyo is an interesting guy. When Seattle traded him, the bat was really trending up. He was mediocre to bad last year at the plate. Still a ++ glove. If you believe he’ll hit, great buy low target.  If he doesn’t hit, he won’t be able to push Montgomery off ss and becomes a utility guy. A divisive prospect for sure. I love Petty, so I am intrigued. But this org really needs bats.

[bmags]

One way you know a trade isn’t going to happen is when returns are discussed this openly.

[chitownsportsfan]

5 minutes ago, bmags said:

One way you know a trade isn’t going to happen is when returns are discussed this openly.

Especially on a message board devoted to the team looking to deal. 

 

[bmags]

3 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Especially on a message board devoted to the team looking to deal. 

 

No I mean the reported packages. When stuff like this gets out, especially in context of what was asked, there’s no point in discussing reds. These packages aren’t happening.

 

[Chick Mercedes]

13 minutes ago, bmags said:

One way you know a trade isn’t going to happen is when returns are discussed this openly.

The Reds are leaking for effect. Honestly, I take that as a sign that Getz is holding his own.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

19 hours ago, Springfield Soxfan said:

If teams will not pay the price for Cease then keep him.  

Teams know the Sox suck and are running out of assets to trade to try to claw their way back to respectability. They also know Reinsdorf won't extend him .

They also know holding him is risky for the Sox if his ERA is once again 4.5 before the deadline. A 4.5 ERA is not what you want to be starting in the 2nd game in a 3 or 5 game series.

Getz getting good defensive players is likely prep for making his pitchers tradable at the deadline.

They probably don't care much about winning right now as much as they do trying to bring in more legitimate talent.

Anyone thinking the Sox can actually compete by keeping him is sadly mistaken. Their best plan is to keep Cease, Fedde,Kopech and Soroka numbers as good as possible and hope to trade them all. Cease preferably before the season starts.

This is why they want more pitching prospects . You need to remove those 4 guys from any equation moving forward very shortly. You can probably say the same thing about Scholtens and Toussaint. That's why Getz will not have any rookie in the starting rotationuntil it can't be helped.

Anyone trying to split hairs thinking less than 100 losses again should readjust their thinking if you think a 5 or 10 game improvement is any sign of progress. That's not a goal right now which is also why Grifol wasn't fired. He's got a contract. No good reason to pay anyone else. That's a JR move if I ever saw one.

Edited December 26, 2023 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

16 hours ago, bmags said:

One way you know a trade isn’t going to happen is when returns are discussed this openly.

Getz is undergoing a trial by fire now by his peers. They are testing his resolve.

I think it was very important to make the Bummer trade to establish some kind of barometer with the other GMs how to value pitching even if the return for Bummer didn't impress you. It should impress you . One wild relief pitcher on a losing team netting 4 assets likely to be on the Opening Day roster should tell you a lot of things.

1.This team is going to be terrible.

2. They are seriously about defense to make all the short term tradable starting pitching assets look as good as possible. Getz knows that could include Cease. This is a game of chicken pure and simple.

The whining about the asking price is part of the squeeze and I wouldn't expect a Cease trade soon unless Getz finds his Neo.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

@Kyyle23 - Not sure who best to go to on this, but I was over at Orioles Hangout earlier today and a couple posters mentioned trying to join Soxtalk but being unsuccessful.  Anything special they need to do to join that I can share with them?

[Kyyle23]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

@Kyyle23 - Not sure who best to go to on this, but I was over at Orioles Hangout earlier today and a couple posters mentioned trying to join Soxtalk but being unsuccessful.  Anything special they need to do to join that I can share with them?

We might have a logjam in new accounts that we haven’t addressed because we are very very very lazy and didn’t see them

[ron883]

13 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

We might have a logjam in new accounts that we haven’t addressed because we are very very very lazy and didn’t see them

Smh. How far we have fallen. This is what happens without SS2K5. 

[Kyyle23]

3 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Smh. How far we have fallen. This is what happens without SS2K5. 

No he is here also being lazy no worries about that 

[Quin]

10 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

No he is here also being lazy no worries about that 

 

[Frobby]

Hi there Sox fans.   Long time Oriole fan here, stopping by to give my two cents on a possible Cease trade for O's prospects.

While O's fan opinions on Cease vary, I view him as someone who is likely to slot in as the O's no. 3 starter (behind Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez), with the potential to be a TOR starter if he can get his act together fully.   I don't see him as the ace he was in 2022, nor as the somewhat mediocre pitcher he was in 2023.  I see him more as a guy who has posted an ERA+ of 113 in his career, and who has reached 111 or better 3 times in a 5-year career.   I see a lot of White Sox fans really putting a lot of weight on his one great season, but at the end of the day, he's only done that one time in five years, and not in the most recent season.   In fact, his most recent season was very disappointing, even if we can ascribe some of that to bad defense and/or bad luck.   

Saying that, he'd make a good addition for the Orioles, who are a little thin on pitchers, and I do like the upside if he can veer back towards his 2022 form.   The O's are a much better defensive team than the White Sox and I think their coaching staff and analytics department have done a good job with our pitchers the last few years and could probably be of help to Cease.

So what would I give up?  Personally, I think a package of Kjerstad/Cowser plus Ortiz is about right, and I would consider throwing in a lower level prospect if necessary to close the deal.   I don't see us giving up either McDermott or Povich as a third piece, because we are thin on pitching prospects in the upper levels of the minors, and dealing either of them would partially undermine the purpose of getting two years of Cease.   I realize there are some rumors that the Sox want pitching back in any trade, and if that's true, either (1) there won't be a deal with the O's, (2) the pitcher will be someone further down in our system, or (3) the O's will downgrade the two hitters offered in the trade.

Bottom line, I think the O's and Sox are pretty well matched so long as the Sox aren't too set on getting pitching back.   Both Getz and Elias strike me as patient guys who won't get to their bottom line until they are forced to.  So, if any deal happens between the two clubs, I think it will be in the second half of January or later.

[tray]

"2. They are seriously about defense to make all the short term tradable starting pitching assets look as good as possible."

It is axiomatic that pitching is the first line of defense in mlb. Rhetorically, what purpose would it serve to have multiple gold glove level defenders signed primarily to have them shag baseballs hit off an inferior pitching staff ?

IMO, Sox have incrementally improved after the subtraction of a few failed starters and relievers.  OK, defense wasn't the best but a lot of games were lost last season in late innings by the bullpen. For those of us who watched a lot of games, recall how Sox hitters tried to stage comebacks in certain games only to see our relievers fail to hold leads over and again. A team can win a lot with great pitching, average defensive players, and some timely hitting which, to me anyway, has to include a lot of home runs.

HR should be a priority, otherwise we will end up with a team that not only loses a lot, but is painfully boring to watch.

 

Edited December 26, 2023 by tray

[ChiSox59]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hi there Sox fans.   Long time Oriole fan here, stopping by to give my two cents on a possible Cease trade for O's prospects.

While O's fan opinions on Cease vary, I view him as someone who is likely to slot in as the O's no. 3 starter (behind Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez), with the potential to be a TOR starter if he can get his act together fully.   I don't see him as the ace he was in 2022, nor as the somewhat mediocre pitcher he was in 2023.  I see him more as a guy who has posted an ERA+ of 113 in his career, and who has reached 111 or better 3 times in a 5-year career.   I see a lot of White Sox fans really putting a lot of weight on his one great season, but at the end of the day, he's only done that one time in five years, and not in the most recent season.   In fact, his most recent season was very disappointing, even if we can ascribe some of that to bad defense and/or bad luck.   

Saying that, he'd make a good addition for the Orioles, who are a little thin on pitchers, and I do like the upside if he can veer back towards his 2022 form.   The O's are a much better defensive team than the White Sox and I think their coaching staff and analytics department have done a good job with our pitchers the last few years and could probably be of help to Cease.

So what would I give up?  Personally, I think a package of Kjerstad/Cowser plus Ortiz is about right, and I would consider throwing in a lower level prospect if necessary to close the deal.   I don't see us giving up either McDermott or Povich as a third piece, because we are thin on pitching prospects in the upper levels of the minors, and dealing either of them would partially undermine the purpose of getting two years of Cease.   I realize there are some rumors that the Sox want pitching back in any trade, and if that's true, either (1) there won't be a deal with the O's, (2) the pitcher will be someone further down in our system, or (3) the O's will downgrade the two hitters offered in the trade.

Bottom line, I think the O's and Sox are pretty well matched so long as the Sox aren't too set on getting pitching back.   Both Getz and Elias strike me as patient guys who won't get to their bottom line until they are forced to.  So, if any deal happens between the two clubs, I think it will be in the second half of January or later.

Nice post.  I think most here would agree that Kjerstad/Cowser + Ortiz is a good baseline package.  I think the supporting pieces will need to be better than bottom end top 30 types.  Like half the league will be in the bidding for Cease, so its gonna hurt. 

Not that it really matters, I don't think there are too many non-O's people that would take Bradish or Rodriguez in the 2024 season over Cease (putting aside contract, control, etc.).  Rodriquez is obviously a wonderful young SP any team would love to have and Bradish had a huge 2023, but that is a major leap to expect those guys to be better than Cease in 2024 (especially with the same defense behind them).  

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Nice post.  I think most here would agree that Kjerstad/Cowser + Ortiz is a good baseline package.  I think the supporting pieces will need to be better than bottom end top 30 types.  Like half the league will be in the bidding for Cease, so its gonna hurt. 

Not that it really matters, I don't think there are too many non-O's people that would take Bradish or Rodriguez in the 2024 season over Cease (putting aside contract, control, etc.).  Rodriquez is obviously a wonderful young SP any team would love to have and Bradish had a huge 2023, but that is a major leap to expect those guys to be better than Cease in 2024 (especially with the same defense behind them).  

My sense of Mike Elias is he's the kind of guy who goes to an auction with a very firm idea of what his top bid will be, and if someone outbids him, he doesn't get caught up in auction fever and change his mind about what his top bid should be.  Thus, even if a lot of other teams are in on Cease, I don't think it will affect Elias' bottom line, though it could press him to get there a little easier.  And if Elias' mentality (as supposed by me) means that we will sometimes lose out to a higher bidder even when we could "afford" to outbid the other team, I'll live with it.

As to whether Cease will be better than Bradish and/or Rodriguez, I think that's dependent mostly on what version of Cease shows up.   I am pretty confident that the two O's starters will beat Cease's average ERA+ of 113 pretty handily.   But of course, I'm an O's fan, so I'm wired to think that way.

[ChiSoxFanMike]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My sense of Mike Elias is he's the kind of guy who goes to an auction with a very firm idea of what his top bid will be, and if someone outbids him, he doesn't get caught up in auction fever and change his mind about what his top bid should be.  Thus, even if a lot of other teams are in on Cease, I don't think it will affect Elias' bottom line, though it could press him to get there a little easier.  And if Elias' mentality (as supposed by me) means that we will sometimes lose out to a higher bidder even when we could "afford" to outbid the other team, I'll live with it.

As to whether Cease will be better than Bradish and/or Rodriguez, I think that's dependent mostly on what version of Cease shows up.   I am pretty confident that the two O's starters will beat Cease's average ERA+ of 113 pretty handily.   But of course, I'm an O's fan, so I'm wired to think that way.

Perhaps you can answer this for me. Why are so many people on that Orioles forum reluctant to trade any prospect of significance? Is that just an extension of the Elias mindset?
 

I get that the Orioles aren’t in the market for big time free agents so it’s important to keep prospects to an extent. But if one didn’t know any better, you would think the Orioles system was awful with the amount of prospect clutching people do on there…even with guys who are totally blocked at the MLB level.

[SoCalChiSox]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hi there Sox fans.   Long time Oriole fan here, stopping by to give my two cents on a possible Cease trade for O's prospects.

While O's fan opinions on Cease vary, I view him as someone who is likely to slot in as the O's no. 3 starter (behind Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez), with the potential to be a TOR starter if he can get his act together fully.   I don't see him as the ace he was in 2022, nor as the somewhat mediocre pitcher he was in 2023.  I see him more as a guy who has posted an ERA+ of 113 in his career, and who has reached 111 or better 3 times in a 5-year career.   I see a lot of White Sox fans really putting a lot of weight on his one great season, but at the end of the day, he's only done that one time in five years, and not in the most recent season.   In fact, his most recent season was very disappointing, even if we can ascribe some of that to bad defense and/or bad luck.   

Saying that, he'd make a good addition for the Orioles, who are a little thin on pitchers, and I do like the upside if he can veer back towards his 2022 form.   The O's are a much better defensive team than the White Sox and I think their coaching staff and analytics department have done a good job with our pitchers the last few years and could probably be of help to Cease.

So what would I give up?  Personally, I think a package of Kjerstad/Cowser plus Ortiz is about right, and I would consider throwing in a lower level prospect if necessary to close the deal.   I don't see us giving up either McDermott or Povich as a third piece, because we are thin on pitching prospects in the upper levels of the minors, and dealing either of them would partially undermine the purpose of getting two years of Cease.   I realize there are some rumors that the Sox want pitching back in any trade, and if that's true, either (1) there won't be a deal with the O's, (2) the pitcher will be someone further down in our system, or (3) the O's will downgrade the two hitters offered in the trade.

Bottom line, I think the O's and Sox are pretty well matched so long as the Sox aren't too set on getting pitching back.   Both Getz and Elias strike me as patient guys who won't get to their bottom line until they are forced to.  So, if any deal happens between the two clubs, I think it will be in the second half of January or later.

Welcome to the board, Frobby.

I think if BAL offered one Cowser/Hjerstad plus one of Ortiz/Norby, then IMO a deal would be likely. 

It doesnt seem like your GM is willing to do that tho. 

I would like someone like Povich as the third piece and our GM will likely want pitching somewhere in the deal. 

If push comes to shove and the parties are only arguing about a third piece that is not a Top 100 player I can't imagine that would kill a deal unless some other team has a mega offer out there. 

Honestly if Chicago is willing to forego Holliday/Mayo/Basallo and I think we are willing to do that, BAL needs to suck it up and accept Cowser/Hjerstad, Norby/Ortiz and Povich as the package. 

There is going to be a significant market for Cease...warts and all...given the two years of control, limited salary and good durability. 

You have to give something to get something.

I agree that this may likely drag out till late January or even right before pitchers and catchers report. As much as us fans would like a deal done quickly because we are bored as hell and would like to get excited about new acquisitions, its going to be a staredown for awhile I suspect.

[Quin]

4 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Perhaps you can answer this for me. Why are so many people on that Orioles forum reluctant to trade any prospect of significance? Is that just an extension of the Elias mindset?
 

I get that the Orioles aren’t in the market for big time free agents so it’s important to keep prospects to an extent. But if one didn’t know any better, you would think the Orioles system was awful with the amount of prospect clutching people do on there…even with guys who are totally blocked at the MLB level.

People get attached to prospects and dream on them. Everyone has their sleeper prospect - we all once dreamt on dudes like Laz Rivera or Jake Peter - and then there are guys like Alec Hansen who went from a possible 1-1, fell to the Sox in the second round, dominated, then fell apart completely.

So when you have a strong system full of highly touted guys, you're worried about trading the next big thing.

[Bob Sacamano]

Just now, Quin said:

People get attached to prospects and dream on them. Everyone has their sleeper prospect - we all once dreamt on dudes like Laz Rivera or Jake Peter - and then there are guys like Alec Hansen who went from a possible 1-1, fell to the Sox in the second round, dominated, then fell apart completely.

So when you have a strong system full of highly touted guys, you're worried about trading the next big thing.

Yeah it’s common for every fanbase - not just the O’s.