Cease To Padres per Passan

[ChiSoxFanMike]

1 minute ago, Quin said:

People get attached to prospects and dream on them. Everyone has their sleeper prospect - we all once dreamt on dudes like Laz Rivera or Jake Peter - and then there are guys like Alec Hansen who went from a possible 1-1, fell to the Sox in the second round, dominated, then fell apart completely.

So when you have a strong system full of highly touted guys, you're worried about trading the next big thing.

I suppose, but the Sox farm systems at that time were horrible so it’s kind of apples to oranges in that regard. The Orioles are so loaded that they have surpluses at almost every position. I’ve seen people on that Orioles forum clutching onto Connor Norby types. Like why? Where is that guy going to play for them in a couple years?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My sense of Mike Elias is he's the kind of guy who goes to an auction with a very firm idea of what his top bid will be, and if someone outbids him, he doesn't get caught up in auction fever and change his mind about what his top bid should be.  Thus, even if a lot of other teams are in on Cease, I don't think it will affect Elias' bottom line, though it could press him to get there a little easier.  And if Elias' mentality (as supposed by me) means that we will sometimes lose out to a higher bidder even when we could "afford" to outbid the other team, I'll live with it.

As to whether Cease will be better than Bradish and/or Rodriguez, I think that's dependent mostly on what version of Cease shows up.   I am pretty confident that the two O's starters will beat Cease's average ERA+ of 113 pretty handily.   But of course, I'm an O's fan, so I'm wired to think that way.

Wish you luck. Our experience with young pitchers is injuries and inconsistency.

You're in your windows right now. Your record from last year indicates you had just as good of a chance of winning the World Series as anyone.

The O's have an abundance of depth. You also have 3 OF you know u have to trade. One very soon with Santander. You can see what you get for your OFs+ a prospect. It gets real hard to trade guy mid season especially in a tight pennant race if he's having a good year. But a team like the Os cannot afford losing quality players for nothing. 

You got a nice bunch of good OF prospects but one of them needs to take Santander's place ASAP. I hope you don't have to go through the struggles with the injuries and inconsistencies that makes winning so hard without establish veteran pitchers. That's why you see Verlander and Scherzer going to contenders year after year. If you see your GM stocking up on expensive relief pitching , like,let's say Craig Kimble good luck with that. Been there done that. We know what it's like to not have an owner try to finish off the rebuild.

In your division you need to capitalize on your chances to win a Championship. A little bad luck and before you know it you're back to 4th place. Maybe the guys in charge of your franchise aren't as stupid and care so little about winning as ours do. ?

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Perhaps you can answer this for me. Why are so many people on that Orioles forum reluctant to trade any prospect of significance? Is that just an extension of the Elias mindset?
 

I get that the Orioles aren’t in the market for big time free agents so it’s important to keep prospects to an extent. But if one didn’t know any better, you would think the Orioles system was awful with the amount of prospect clutching people do on there…even with guys who are totally blocked at the MLB level.

Well, in a recent Orioles Hangout poll, about 2/3 of posters were willing to give up both Cowser and Ortiz in a trade for Cease.  So, I don’t know that your premise is correct, depending on what you mean by “so many people.”   But among those who are reluctant to part with the prospects, I’d say the big factors are (1) we’ve been very successful with our prospects turning the organization around the last two years, (2) we’ve suffered through some very long losing spells caused by short term thinking, so many O’s fans are more interested in sustainable winning than a “go for it for a season or two” mentality, and (3) we do have some “medium term” needs that some of the prospects could fill.  For example, all three of the Orioles’ starting outfielders will be free agents within the next two years, so dealing either Cowser or Kjerstad means we’ll need to find a replacement elsewhere.  Ortiz/Norby is a somewhat different story, as we have a lot of infield depth.

 

[Quin]

18 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

I suppose, but the Sox farm systems at that time were horrible so it’s kind of apples to oranges in that regard. The Orioles are so loaded that they have surpluses at almost every position. I’ve seen people on that Orioles forum clutching onto Connor Norby types. Like why? Where is that guy going to play for them in a couple years?

I know this is for @Frobby, but a redundancy policy exists.

We had such a top heavy farm system that when Yoan got hurt, we had nothing to replace him with (until this year, then Burger was traded). Eloy was replaced by a first baseman. Luis Robert was replaced by a comedy of errors. When Madrigal didn't work - and then got traded - nothing.

Imagine Gunnar Henderson has a sophomore slump or Holliday follows the Moncada/Benintendi career path and Norby is the one racking up All-Star appearances for the White Sox.

I think it's just the fact that people want to be risk averse.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, tray said:

"2. They are seriously about defense to make all the short term tradable starting pitching assets look as good as possible."

It is axiomatic that pitching is the first line of defense in mlb. Rhetorically, what purpose would it serve to have multiple gold glove level defenders signed primarily to have them shag baseballs hit off an inferior pitching staff ?

IMO, Sox have incrementally improved after the subtraction of a few failed starters and relievers.  OK, defense wasn't the best but a lot of games were lost last season in late innings by the bullpen. For those of us who watched a lot of games, recall how Sox hitters tried to stage comebacks in certain games only to see our relievers fail to hold leads over and again. A team can win a lot with great pitching, average defensive players, and some timely hitting which, to me anyway, has to include a lot of home runs.

HR should be a priority, otherwise we will end up with a team that not only loses a lot, but is painfully boring to watch.

 

I suppose as usual you misunderstood.

Sox have either cheap dumpster dives pitchers or guys that are short term contracts in the Starting rotation

Getz's plan for now is focused on the short term. Cease Fedde ,Kopech, Soroka, Toussaint, Scholtens are all short term guys. Getz is stressing defense from guys with no bats because he needs those pitchers numbers to look as good as possible at the trade deadline. The focus is not winning, it's praying and hoping that better defense can make some of those guys worth a prospect or 2.

They have no one but Cease and Robert, Jr. left to trade to get the bats you want. But they will also get pitching. There's no doubt about that. You better hope and pray ,along with Getz ,that Bannister and Katz can pull a rabbit out of their ass and make  1 or 2 of that mess of a starting staff worth getting a couple of prospects.

Getz needs a HR on the Cease trade.

Edited December 26, 2023 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[SoCalChiSox]

5 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I suppose as usual you misunderstood.

Sox have either cheap dumpster dives pitchers or guys that are short term contracts in the Starting rotation

Getz's plan for now is focused on the short term. Cease Fedde ,Kopech, Soroka, Toussaint, Scholtens are all short term guys. Getz is stressing defense from guys with no bats because he needs those pitchers numbers to look as good as possible at the trade deadline. The focus is not winning, it's praying and hoping that better defense can make some of those guys worth a prospect or 2.

They have no one but Cease and Robert, Jr. left to trade to get the bats you want. But they will also get pitching. There's no doubt about that. You better hope and pray ,along with Getz ,that Bannister and Katz can pull a rabbit out of their ass and make  1 or 2 of that mess of a starting staff worth getting a couple of prospects.

Getz needs a HR on the Cease trade.

I think the problem I have with this idea if in fact it's Getz plan is that once again the FO (like it's predecessor) somehow believes they can outsmart everyone through smoke, mirrors and deception when in fact a) they've never outsmarted anyone and b) people will be able to plainly see through even basic analytic data (BABIP, FIP etc) that these pitchers are being aided by superior defense and they would be trading for pyrite rather than gold. 

I mean even teams that don't have floors and floors of eggheads constantly crunching numbers will be able to see this, so if this is really their plan, Getz is gravely mistaken.

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

As to whether Cease will be better than Bradish and/or Rodriguez, I think that's dependent mostly on what version of Cease shows up.   I am pretty confident that the two O's starters will beat Cease's average ERA+ of 113 pretty handily.   But of course, I'm an O's fan, so I'm wired to think that way.

Again, doesn't really matter but Bradish career ERA+ is 110, and Grayson's is 97.  So if that's the measure, not sure there is much support for that claim.

Cease's ERA+ past three seasons is 131.  That seems like a better measuring stick, which includes both a Cy Young runner-up season in 22, and season where most went wrong in 23. 

[ChiSoxFanMike]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, in a recent Orioles Hangout poll, about 2/3 of posters were willing to give up both Cowser and Ortiz in a trade for Cease.  So, I don’t know that your premise is correct, depending on what you mean by “so many people.”   But among those who are reluctant to part with the prospects, I’d say the big factors are (1) we’ve been very successful with our prospects turning the organization around the last two years, (2) we’ve suffered through some very long losing spells caused by short term thinking, so many O’s fans are more interested in sustainable winning than a “go for it for a season or two” mentality, and (3) we do have some “medium term” needs that some of the prospects could fill.  For example, all three of the Orioles’ starting outfielders will be free agents within the next two years, so dealing either Cowser or Kjerstad means we’ll need to find a replacement elsewhere.  Ortiz/Norby is a somewhat different story, as we have a lot of infield depth.

 

Those are fair points I guess. Like I said, I understand the Orioles circumstances. They operate in a similar fashion to the Sox in terms of their spending habits. But the overwhelming sentiment in the Cease thread from what I have read is a reluctance to part with what it would take to get a pitcher of Cease’s caliber. I don’t blame O’s fans for that if the ask is unreasonable, but you have to give to get. You’re not going to get a pitcher like Cease in this market for the scraps.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

26 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I think the problem I have with this idea if in fact it's Getz plan is that once again the FO (like it's predecessor) somehow believes they can outsmart everyone through smoke, mirrors and deception when in fact a) they've never outsmarted anyone and b) people will be able to plainly see through even basic analytic data (BABIP, FIP etc) that these pitchers are being aided by superior defense and they would be trading for pyrite rather than gold. 

I mean even teams that don't have floors and floors of eggheads constantly crunching numbers will be able to see this, so if this is really their plan, Getz is gravely mistaken.

I'm talking about putting up some numbers that look good enough to trade for. I'm surely not talking about win loss records. There are are plenty of ways for the pitchers to show they are good without the FO thinking they are tricking someone.They need tradable assets and they need some short term pieces to step up. Good coaching ,good defense and a catcher who calls a good game are all keys to helping a pitching staff . He's just doing what's necessary to get out of a hole not thinking it's some master plan. Just hoping all that stuff turns some question marks into prospects. Everybody needs pitching at the deadline.

It's not just the short term SP that needs to step up it's short term guys like Moncada, Eloy and even a guy under contract for longer like Benintendi to show that they they have value so they can be traded. There's zero reasons to keep any of those guys.

Edited December 26, 2023 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[WhiteSox2023]

On 12/25/2023 at 11:54 AM, Springfield Soxfan said:

If teams will not pay the price for Cease then keep him.  

Keep him and what?  There is only one possible positive outcome from doing this.  He reverts back to a true ace in the first half of 2024 for a team with no chance at competing for the division, and you trade him at the deadline.  But at the same time, he will be losing months of control in a competitive team’s rotation.  We all know there is zero chance that Reinsdorf will sign off on paying Cease.  So what if he instead continues on as a #2 or #3 starter and diminishes his value further?  He will have less months of control and he will have further declined in the eyes of other teams.  I see no way that keeping Cease until next year’s trade deadline being worth the risk, rather than trading him now with two full seasons of control and one “down” year on his resume.

Edited December 26, 2023 by WhiteSox2023

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

Just now, WhiteSox2023 said:

Keep him and what?  There is only one possible positive outcome from doing this.  He reverts back to a true ace in the first half of 2024 for a team with no chance at competing for the division, and you trade him at the deadline.  But at the same time, he will be losing months of control in a competitive team’s rotation.  We all know there is zero chance that Reinsdorf will sign off on paying Cease.  So what if he instead continues on as a #2 or #3 starter and diminishes his value further?  He will have less months of control and he will have further declined.  I see no way the risk of keeping Cease being worth it rather than trading him now with two full seasons of control.

It is completely dependent on the offer on the table so far.  If the offer is Cowser and Ortiz +, you take it... If the offer is Petty and Arroyo, you take the risk and wait until the deadline because that offer isn't a slam dunk.

[Chicago White Sox]

26 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Those are fair points I guess. Like I said, I understand the Orioles circumstances. They operate in a similar fashion to the Sox in terms of their spending habits. But the overwhelming sentiment in the Cease thread from what I have read is a reluctance to part with what it would take to get a pitcher of Cease’s caliber. I don’t blame O’s fans for that if the ask is unreasonable, but you have to give to get. You’re not going to get a pitcher like Cease in this market for the scraps.

I’ve been discussing a potential Cease trade at Orioles Hangout for some time now.  I think most over there, including Frobby, want to trade for a high-end starter and have the appetite from a prospect cost standpoint.  There are a few posters there that truly overvalue their prospects through and one or two of them are very active posters, so it does skew the perception a bit.

Ultimately this all comes down to Elias though.  Beyond just Cease, I truly believe it’s critical they add another TOR type starter.  Pitching is so volatile and the rotation thins out quickly after Bradish & Rodriguez.  And while they did win 101 games last year, they greatly outproduced their run expectancy and that could be hard to replicate without Bautista.  No doubt their younger guys could get better and offset that headwind, but I wouldn’t sit around passively if I were Elias and assume I’m guaranteed a playoff spot.  If you aren’t adding to what you have, you are more likely getting worse.  We saw that first hand here when Hahn continually refused to augment the core with actual impact talent.

[WhiteSox2023]

10 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

It is completely dependent on the offer on the table so far.  If the offer is Cowser and Ortiz +, you take it... If the offer is Petty and Arroyo, you take the risk and wait until the deadline because that offer isn't a slam dunk.

The risk of Cease getting injured between Spring Training and the trade deadline and getting a diminished or no return for him is not one worth taking.  And if he suffers the dreaded TJ, we won’t be getting anything for him at all before he hits free agency.  Getz has to get this done before Spring Training, period.

Edited December 26, 2023 by WhiteSox2023

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

25 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

The risk of Cease getting injured between Spring Training and the trade deadline and getting a diminished or no return for him is not one worth taking.  And if he suffers the dreaded TJ, we won’t be getting anything for him at all before he hits free agency.  Getz has to get this done before Spring Training, period.

Yeah, sure.  You've laid out the risk of holding him. The potential benefit of holding him is also exorbitant. Assuming best case return to 2022 form, like you assumed the worst case.  With no injury, and no return to 2022 form, Cease would still command Petty + Arroyo type return in July. 

[ChiSox59]

33 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’ve been discussing a potential Cease trade at Orioles Hangout for some time now.  I think most over there, including Frobby, want to trade for a high-end starter and have the appetite from a prospect cost standpoint.  There are a few posters there that truly overvalue their prospects through and one or two of them are very active posters, so it does skew the perception a bit.

Ultimately this all comes down to Elias though.  Beyond just Cease, I truly believe it’s critical they add another TOR type starter.  Pitching is so volatile and the rotation thins out quickly after Bradish & Rodriguez.  And while they did win 101 games last year, they greatly outproduced their run expectancy and that could be hard to replicate without Bautista.  No doubt their younger guys could get better and offset that headwind, but I wouldn’t sit around passively if I were Elias and assume I’m guaranteed a playoff spot.  If you aren’t adding to what you have, you are more likely getting worse.  We saw that first hand here when Hahn continually refused to augment the core with actual impact talent.

Isn't BAL going to have a serious 40/26 man crunch in the next 18 months?  They can't just hoard all these guys forever. 

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Yeah, sure.  You've laid out the risk of holding him. The potential benefit of holding him is also exorbitant. Assuming best case return to 2022 form, like you assumed the worst case.  With no injury, and no return to 2022 form, Cease would still command Petty + Arroyo type return in July. 

This.  There is legitimate upside in holding Cease until July.  Of course there is always risk any pitcher goes down with elbow or shoulder injury, but if he bounces back to a Cy candidate, you're getting better offers in July than you're getting now, even with 15-20 less starts of control. 

[Bob Sacamano]

We’re just talking in circles at this point. Need some rumors.

[SoCalChiSox]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

Isn't BAL going to have a serious 40/26 man crunch in the next 18 months?  They can't just hoard all these guys forever. 

I think Elias is going to try all reasonable alternatives first before giving up young savages. 

First they'll try to move existing OFers that are in arbitration. When that fails to return meaningful pitching, he'll try packaging said players with lower level prospects, then if that doesn't work, he will look at Burnes who will be cheaper, but if MIL isn't going to move him or if the market bids are too high and he doesn't want to go there for only 1 year of control, he will return back to Cease in a few weeks.

I'd be very surprised by an "early" deal with BAL (even though I'd love to see it) unless Getz gets a very good offer from someone desperate right now and basically tells other people you've got 24 hours to top this or I'm doing the deal. 

[Chicago White Sox]

13 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Isn't BAL going to have a serious 40/26 man crunch in the next 18 months?  They can't just hoard all these guys forever. 

Oh 100%.  And guys are starting to get older.  Joey Ortiz turns 26 in July!  They don’t have to move him for Cease, but if Westburg is the guy they have pegged for 2B then trade Ortiz for something that can help you win now and use other guys as infield depth.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

My sense of Mike Elias is he's the kind of guy who goes to an auction with a very firm idea of what his top bid will be, and if someone outbids him, he doesn't get caught up in auction fever and change his mind about what his top bid should be.  Thus, even if a lot of other teams are in on Cease, I don't think it will affect Elias' bottom line, though it could press him to get there a little easier.  And if Elias' mentality (as supposed by me) means that we will sometimes lose out to a higher bidder even when we could "afford" to outbid the other team, I'll live with it.

This is a good way to put it.  I've been told that Elias has been very difficult to work with and I think it's because he knows what he has, he knows what he's going to offer and he's sees no reason to come off of that offer.  I don't need to tell you it's been a long painful process to get where they are now and I don't think he's going to start making big aggressive moves while he's still playing with house money.  

[Chicago White Sox]

13 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

We’re just talking in circles at this point. Need some rumors.

Hopefully there is more activity this week than we’d otherwise expect.  Boras in particular might have to make up for lost time with his pitchers.  Unfortunately Getz will probably wait until after the Rose Bowl to get back into the swing of things.

[SoCalChiSox]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Hopefully there is more activity this week than we’d otherwise expect.  Boras in particular might have to make up for lost time with his pitchers.  Unfortunately Getz will probably wait until after the Rose Bowl to get back into the swing of things.

Yeah need Snell and Montgomery to sign ASAP. 

[ChiSox59]

5 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

This is a good way to put it.  I've been told that Elias has been very difficult to work with and I think it's because he knows what he has, he knows what he's going to offer and he's sees no reason to come off of that offer.  I don't need to tell you it's been a long painful process to get where they are now and I don't think he's going to start making big aggressive moves while he's still playing with house money.  

Then he can enjoy more first round exits in the playoffs, or even the WC game the next couple seasons.  The O's might not even win the East consistently the next couple years.  

[Tnetennba]

9 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Then he can enjoy more first round exits in the playoffs, or even the WC game the next couple seasons.  The O's might not even win the East consistently the next couple years.  

Elias has to be smart enough to know that the O's running away with the AL East was a bit of a perfect storm. How often are both NYY and Boston not in the playoff chase? They can't just sit on their hands and not add while the big spenders upgrade, and at some point all of these prospects are going to start to age and depreciate in value. He may not feel a sense of urgency this winter, but at some point it will be time to s%*# or get off the pot. 

Edited December 26, 2023 by Tnetennba

[ron883]

4 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

No he is here also being lazy no worries about that 

The Fuhrer himself?! I don't buy it. I haven't seen a ban doled out in far too long.