Cease To Padres per Passan

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

I'm of the opinion that winning 101 games last year makes it more urgent to go for it.  They are in a window right now.  Its not like they will continue to win 100 games a season in perpetuity in the AL East.  

 

Who is the second TOR guy?  Grayson Rodriguez?

Yep..Grayson, after he came back from the minors after the AS break, was one of the best pitchers in the AL.

And I agree with your first paragraph. That’s my mindset too.

Edited December 27, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Nardiwashere]

4 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

This is a sellers market....the odds of the Sox accepting this kind of "quantity" package are zero.

If BAL truly wanted to do a quantity package and protect their Top 5 guys, the sheer amount of quantity required would be so massive that it would make Elias and also the fanbase uncomfortable....like I don't mean a 4 person package, I mean like an 8 person package...maybe something like Ortiz, Norby, Beavers, Povich, Bradfield, DL Hall, AND two other guys in the 10-15 range in your system. 

Even then, Getz would get skewered for the lack of high end talent and it would be unclear if even that (even with Hall included) would be sufficient to save face for him. 

Lol, this is true.  Ortiz, Norby, Beavers, and a lotto ticket just sounds like a deal headlined by Ortiz plus one more guy.  

[Timmy U]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is plenty of reason for it…because they aren’t getting a player close to Mayo and maybe they get something close to Kjerstad. They need to trade Cease for the best deal possible. Thinking one of them has to be in it is foolish and really limits your options for any trade.

If a volume deal was going to get this done, it would have been done at the deadline. Sox need at least one impact player in a Cease deal. The O’s don’t want to be a counterparty in a deal like that. I simply think these two teams are not a match

[oldsox]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, they don’t have to trade Cease but they would be pretty foolish to hold onto him too.

Hell, they are foolish for hanging onto Robert imo. 

No, that will be next years 100 + page post season thread.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

This is a sellers market....the odds of the Sox accepting this kind of "quantity" package are zero.

If BAL truly wanted to do a quantity package and protect their Top 5 guys, the sheer amount of quantity required would be so massive that it would make Elias and also the fanbase uncomfortable....like I don't mean a 4 person package, I mean like an 8 person package...maybe something like Ortiz, Norby, Beavers, Povich, Bradfield, DL Hall, AND two other guys in the 10-15 range in your system. 

Even then, Getz would get skewered for the lack of high end talent and it would be unclear if even that (even with Hall included) would be sufficient to save face for him. 

No offense but this is absurd. You are greatly overrating Cease and underrating the read of those guys. To think you should get 8 prospects, some of which are or will be top 100 level guys, is crazy.

I tend to doubt they accept a quantity type trade but I think the thing fans get caught up in are these all over the place top 100 rankings.  Just because you aren’t a top 100 guy doesn’t mean you aren’t a good prospect. Most top 100 lists are filled with guys that all those publications overrated from the beginning and they don’t jump off of the names quick enough because they don’t want to look that wrong that quickly.  
 

 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, oldsox said:

No, that will be next years 100 + page post season thread.

For your guys sake, I hope he stays healthy and you get a haul for him but he’s a big durability risk.

[oldsox]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

For your guys sake, I hope he stays healthy and you get a haul for him but he’s a big durability risk.

He also figures to have a better offensive season next year.  Still improving.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, oldsox said:

He also figures to have a better offensive season next year.  Still improving.

I mean it’s possible but I wouldn’t speak of it as a fact.

I think it’s very possible that his value is the highest right now that it will ever be.  When you have zero to play for and have no prospects of contention in the next several years, I think you have to trade your assets when you can…they should have moved Cease after 2022 and they should move Robert now.

They would have a huge haul of prospects had they done that and maybe contention for the playoffs would only be a year or 2 away.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

For your guys sake, I hope he stays healthy and you get a haul for him but he’s a big durability risk.

FWIW, I think the opposite. He's actually leading all MLB in starts over the last 3 seasons. That's as durable as you can possibly find, the guy simply hasn't been hurt. The risk on him is much more performance, he has been more inconsistent than he should be given his talent and that's the only reason he hasn't brought a haul back already.

[Nardiwashere]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, they don’t have to trade Cease but they would be pretty foolish to hold onto him too.

Hell, they are foolish for hanging onto Robert imo. 

Robert has 4 years left.  No one would be able to afford him.  Besides, the goal of the team is to be good again before he leaves. 

If they still stink in 2 years, they can trade him then. 

 

[ChiSoxFanMike]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

FWIW, I think the opposite. He's actually leading all MLB in starts over the last 3 seasons. That's as durable as you can possibly find, the guy simply hasn't been hurt. The risk on him is much more performance, he has been more inconsistent than he should be given his talent and that's the only reason he hasn't brought a haul back already.

He was talking about Robert, not Cease.

[SoCalChiSox]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, they don’t have to trade Cease but they would be pretty foolish to hold onto him too.

Hell, they are foolish for hanging onto Robert imo. 

I agree with you here....they should move Robert when his value is at its peak. He had a monster season and was healthy at the same time. 

There's 4 years remaining of control at cheap prices. 

The return will be much, much greater than Cease and I expect Cease to go for two Top 100s plus a very solid third piece.

[SoCalChiSox]

2 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

Robert has 4 years left.  No one would be able to afford him.  Besides, the goal of the team is to be good again before he leaves. 

If they still stink in 2 years, they can trade him then. 

 

If they get Bradfield as like the third piece in a BAL Cease trade I can see them moving Robert next offseason as they'll have a good in house CF replacement ready if not for 25...maybe 26. Obviously the bats do not compare at all, but Getz has a massive hard on for D and athleticism. 

[WhiteSox2023]

20 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

This is a sellers market....the odds of the Sox accepting this kind of "quantity" package are zero.

If BAL truly wanted to do a quantity package and protect their Top 5 guys, the sheer amount of quantity required would be so massive that it would make Elias and also the fanbase uncomfortable....like I don't mean a 4 person package, I mean like an 8 person package...maybe something like Ortiz, Norby, Beavers, Povich, Bradfield, DL Hall, AND two other guys in the 10-15 range in your system. 

Even then, Getz would get skewered for the lack of high end talent and it would be unclear if even that (even with Hall included) would be sufficient to save face for him. 

I think you’re going to be disappointed at the eventual return for Cease if you think he should return those 6 prospects and 2 more from the Orioles in their 10-15 range.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

FWIW, I think the opposite. He's actually leading all MLB in starts over the last 3 seasons. That's as durable as you can possibly find, the guy simply hasn't been hurt. The risk on him is much more performance, he has been more inconsistent than he should be given his talent and that's the only reason he hasn't brought a haul back already.

Huh?  He played in 68 games in 2021 and 98 in 2022. Last year he was very durable but he clearly wasn’t heading into 2023.

[Rey21]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, they don’t have to trade Cease but they would be pretty foolish to hold onto him too.

Hell, they are foolish for hanging onto Robert imo. 

It’s even more foolish to trade him and not get the value that a frontline arm with 2 years left on his deal should command. Kjerstad, Ortiz (neither of whom had any hand in a 101 win season last year) and an arm of your choosing is fair value for a TOR arm. 
 

Trading a 26 year old MVP candidate with 4 years left of control is incredibly foolish. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

Robert has 4 years left.  No one would be able to afford him.  Besides, the goal of the team is to be good again before he leaves. 

If they still stink in 2 years, they can trade him then. 

 

Teams can absolutely afford him. 

[SoCalChiSox]

Just now, WhiteSox2023 said:

I think you’re going to be disappointed at the eventual return for Cease if you think he should return those 6 prospects and 2 more from the Orioles in their 10-15 range.

I'm saying if BAL isn't going to include a LHS there's no path for them to get Cease in this sellers market unless they literally clean out the rest of their system. 

Like literally clean it the f*** out.

You can't protect FIVE guys and still get it done otherwise. 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Huh?  He played in 68 games in 2021 and 98 in 2022. Last year he was very durable but he clearly wasn’t heading into 2023.

Ah, I read that as still talking about Cease. My bad.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Rey21 said:

It’s even more foolish to trade him and not get the value that a frontline arm with 2 years left on his deal should command. Kjerstad, Ortiz (neither of whom had any hand in a 101 win season last year) and an arm of your choosing is fair value for a TOR arm. 
 

Trading a 26 year old MVP candidate with 4 years left of control is incredibly foolish. 

1) This is part of the issue. Cease isn’t a frontline starter. He has the ceiling of one but it’s not set in stone that he is one.

2)  How many games are you going to win with Robert the next 2-3 years?  Im thinking 130ish at most. Why keep him?  

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I think you’re going to be disappointed at the eventual return for Cease if you think he should return those 6 prospects and 2 more from the Orioles in their 10-15 range.

Absolutely. 

[WhiteSox2023]

4 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I'm saying if BAL isn't going to include a LHS there's no path for them to get Cease in this sellers market unless they literally clean out the rest of their system. 

Like literally clean it the f*** out.

You can't protect FIVE guys and still get it done otherwise. 

This is literally your own feelings and desires.  While I hope this is the case as well since the Sox need bats and god knows they can’t develop them on their own, the reporting has been that Getz is trying to get pitching in return for Cease moreso than position players.

Edited December 27, 2023 by WhiteSox2023

[Nardiwashere]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Teams can absolutely afford him. 

Can you think of any MVP caliber position players under team control for 4 years that have been dealt recently?  I can't.

Hypothetically let's pretend CF was a position of need for Baltimore.  What would you offer? Jackson Holliday and who else?

[Balta1701]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

1) This is part of the issue. Cease isn’t a frontline starter. He has the ceiling of one but it’s not set in stone that he is one.

2)  How many games are you going to win with Robert the next 2-3 years?  Im thinking 130ish at most. Why keep him?  

 

Ok I've figured out that we're talking about Robert now.

I'd be open to listening on Robert. But as you've noted, there's some problems with him.

1. His price should be enormous. 4 years of control for a guy in his mid 20s who made the all star team last year should bring back more than most teams in MLB can possibly afford. Literally, without exaggeration, you have to be talking about minimum 4 highly ranked prospects, or maybe 3 of them where there are 2 top 20 guys included. That knocks out the majority of the league - the White Sox literally wouldn't' be able to trade for him because they don't have enough in their entire system.

2. The few teams that do have that much need to be a match for him. They can't be overloaded on outfielders already, because if they have a CF already, Robert would have less value to them.

3. As you noted, there's an injury worry here. He's had one very good season and several injury riddled ones. There is a benefit to teams in making sure that he can actually start regularly repeating his 2023 season.

Robert's value is likely to go down if he's held compared to what it should be with this amount of control, but his price is so high that it's hard to fathom why any team would risk paying it. Maybe this changes by the trade deadline as a couple other teams watch their prospects develop, especially if he makes a 2nd straight all star game and has a healthy first half. 

[caulfield12]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Huh?  He played in 68 games in 2021 and 98 in 2022. Last year he was very durable but he clearly wasn’t heading into 2023.

It was about Cease durability.

A bit confusing to follow.