Cease To Padres per Passan

[Quin]

4 minutes ago, almagest said:

First, I don't think billionaires should pay any more taxes than they already do. Second, this is a bad analogy, because taxable wealth is REAL. Those dollars exist, right now. Prospect future value is THEORETICAL. You could trade Jackson Holliday and he could turn out to be a giant bust or just be decent, and don't say it won't happen because we have a team FULL of these guys.

We're also not saying you're trading for peak Chris Sale here, but we're DEFINITELY saying the price is going to be higher than you seem to want to pay, especially when you're saying 4 of your top 5 prospects on mlb.com are off limits, and the main one you're hanging onto has 1B concerns in his scouting report.

To hammer this home, last year's lineup, for context, peak Pipeline rankings:

TA (#47)
Benintendi (#1)
Robert (#7)
Eloy (#3)
Moncada (#1)
Vaughn (#14)
Frazier (#24) - I picked him for the lols because he was hyped to heaven and back
Elvis (#18 - BA, Pipeline didn't exist)
Grandal (#68)

[Timmy U]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And this is where you guys and other fan bases have it wrong.

A consistent theme we have seen is people saying, well just trade Mayo or Basallo because “you have other guys”. It’s like the people who say billionaires should pay a higher percentage of their money for taxes because “they can afford it”.
 

These two things are nothing alike. Cease is going to traded in a relatively free market. The buyer and the seller will eventually agree on a price. Is it “fair” in absolute terms? Likely not. Just like in free agency, he will go to the highest bidder. And that will be viewed by all the other bidders as an “overpay” because it is above the price they were willing to pay.

Meanwhile, billionaires are able to exert influence over a non-market system: democratic institutions that set the rules for the tax code.  They can contribute a minuscule percentage of what they would owe in taxes to political organizations, campaigns, PACS etc to lower or obliterate their marginal tax rate.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/america-ultra-wealthy-trillions-untaxed-profits-2022-1234940717/

When they pay nothing, suckers like me have to pay a higher rate. There’s nowhere else for the government to get the cash from. People like me do have the recourse of collective action, campaign contributions, volunteering, voting etc, to try to exert influence in the other direction. It usually doesn’t work, but it explains why demanding the ultra-wealthy pay more is a rational action on behalf of those adversely affected.  As you can see, this political action is not a market system in any way shape or form.  Two very different things.

[almagest]

2 minutes ago, Quin said:

To hammer this home, last year's lineup, for context, peak Pipeline rankings:

TA (#47)
Benintendi (#1)
Robert (#7)
Eloy (#3)
Moncada (#1)
Vaughn (#14)
Frazier (#24) - I picked him for the lols because he was hyped to heaven and back
Elvis (#18 - BA, Pipeline didn't exist)
Grandal (#68)

To be fair, I'd say TA, Elvis and Grandal all lived up to their rankings, and Robert sure seems on track to be there too.

Guys like Benintendi, Eloy and Moncada are in theory decent outcomes, even for top 3 prospects, and 100% Orioles fans will be PISSED if Holliday, Kjerstad, Cowser, Mayo and/or Basallo end up in this tier.

[Rolle Tide]

29 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

 @Quin was right, IMO.

If Dylan Cease led the league in swords and if Coby Mayo is somehow more valuable, shouldn't the latter have at least led the minors in shields?

Riddle us that, Oriole fans...

What does this even mean? Who said Mayo is more valuable? You’re just making crap up! I don’t believe Elias is interested in trading Mayo, Cowser, Holiday, Kjerstad, or Basallo. The two have nothing to do to each other. Elias isn’t likely to extend Cease because of Angelos. So what he’s willing to gamble on a two year return is limited. 

[Chicago White Sox]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He had a 97 ERA+ last year and has done nothing in the playoffs.

Teams aren’t stupid and know what a s%*# show the squad was last year.  And they can go on Statcast and see Dylan Cease was hurt more by a s%*# defense than almost any other SP (which ERA+ doesn’t account for).  They will pay for expected go-forward performance and not the prior season’s results.

And come on with this playoff experience bullshit…you know the sample size isn’t material enough to draw any conclusions from for any player.  Having said that, teams typically want SPs with plus stuff who can actually K opponents.  I have literally seen you make this very point at the Hangout, which is why you are one of the biggest proponents for him over there.

[Quin]

1 minute ago, almagest said:

To be fair, I'd say TA, Elvis and Grandal all lived up to their rankings, and Robert sure seems on track to be there too.

Guys like Benintendi, Eloy and Moncada are in theory decent outcomes, even for top 3 prospects, and 100% Orioles fans will be PISSED if Holliday, Kjerstad, Cowser, Mayo and/or Basallo end up in this tier.

Hell, Benintendi is an All-Star with a Gold Glove, Eloy was a rookie silver slugger, and Moncada looked great in his sophomore season.

But then we removed Leury from the lineup.

[Rolle Tide]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Teams aren’t stupid and know what a s%*# show the squad was last year.  And they can go on Statcast and see Dylan Cease was hurt more by a s%*# defense than almost any other SP (which ERA+ doesn’t account for).  They will pay for expected go-forward performance and not the prior season’s results.

And come on with this playoff experience bullshit…you know the sample size isn’t material enough to draw any conclusions from for any player.  Having said that, teams typically want SPs with plus stuff who can actually K opponents.  I have literally seen you make this very point at the Hangout, which is why you are one of the biggest proponents for him over there.

Let me ask an honest question…. Do you think there are red flags to potential buyers on Cease?

[Chicago White Sox]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But how do you know Getz wouldn’t do that? You can’t say that for sure!!!

I can because the math isn’t within a margin of error of making any sense.  And very rarely do I not caveat my points with probably or likely to highlight what is my opinion, even if I feel very confidently about something.

[almagest]

1 minute ago, Rolle Tide said:

What does this even mean? Who said Mayo is more valuable? You’re just making crap up! I don’t believe Elias is interested in trading Mayo, Cowser, Holiday, Kjerstad, or Basallo. The two have nothing to do to each other. Elias isn’t likely to extend Cease because of Angelos. So what he’s willing to gamble on a two year return is limited. 

Then there's nothing for you to talk about with us, because we're not trading two years of a cheap starter who's floor is a mid-rotation starter and ceiling is a Cy Young finalist for your lower tier prospects. The future value proposition just isn't worth it, because prospects have a ton of risk and this trade is too important to this team to fail.

[SkokieSox]

6 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

What does this even mean? Who said Mayo is more valuable? You’re just making crap up! I don’t believe Elias is interested in trading Mayo, Cowser, Holiday, Kjerstad, or Basallo. The two have nothing to do to each other. Elias isn’t likely to extend Cease because of Angelos. So what he’s willing to gamble on a two year return is limited. 

Can’t gamble without chips on the table 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Rolle Tide said:

Let me ask an honest question…. Do you think there are red flags to potential buyers on Cease?

Of course there are.  A drop in fastball velocity and a change in his slider shape are causes for concern.  But I also believe he dealt with some mechanical issues last year and I have followed him to know his work ethic & desire to be great is second to none.  I fully expect him to be significantly better in 2024 but there are no guarantees obviously.  But very few pitchers in baseball provide the mix of floor and ceiling that he does and that will likely result in an acquisition cost well above what his 2023 results would suggest.

[SkokieSox]

5 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

Let me ask an honest question…. Do you think there are red flags to potential buyers on Cease?

Players with no red flags get 700 million dollar contracts 

[almagest]

4 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

Let me ask an honest question…. Do you think there are red flags to potential buyers on Cease?

Yes, of course there are, which is why people aren't suggesting we go for a Chris Sale level package, which was WAY higher than the proposals we're asking about here.

[almagest]

10 minutes ago, Quin said:

Hell, Benintendi is an All-Star with a Gold Glove, Eloy was a rookie silver slugger, and Moncada looked great in his sophomore season.

But then we removed Leury from the lineup.

As soon as Leury started sucking the whole team dropped off the face of the planet. I think we have our smoking gun...

[Rolle Tide]

1 minute ago, almagest said:

Then there's nothing for you to talk about with us, because we're not trading two years of a cheap starter who's floor is a mid-rotation starter and ceiling is a Cy Young finalist for your lower tier prospects. The future value proposition just isn't worth it, because prospects have a ton of risk and this trade is too important to this team to fail.

Who is “We’re” …..Are you a mouse in Getz pocket?  Regardless to what you or I think has nothing to do with what happens. Being a troll doesn’t get you anywhere. Our lower tier prospects as you call them would be in the top 5 in most systems. They only aren’t because the farm is so deep. You guys have talked about a Yankees deal. They don’t have a prospect rated within 20 slots of Ortiz. Depending on the rating venue Norby is just outside the top 100. Bradfield is another really good prospect. McDermott and Povich are close to the Yankees pitchers mentioned in this thread. Hampton is the only ranked by mlb.com at 95. 

[ptatc]

5 minutes ago, SkokieSox said:

Players with no red flags get 700 million dollar contracts 

Even they have red flags. There is no guarantee that he reaches his previous level of performance after his second UCL reconstruction. 

But the Dodgers were willing to take that chance. 

[Rolle Tide]

6 minutes ago, SkokieSox said:

Players with no red flags get 700 million dollar contracts 

Othani has plenty of red flags

[ptatc]

Just now, Rolle Tide said:

Othani has plenty of red flags

Yes he does. That just shows you the market and what teams are willing to do. Granted not many other could afford that deal. 

[Rolle Tide]

Just now, ptatc said:

Even they have red flags. There is no guarantee that he reaches his previous level of performance after his second UCL reconstruction. 

But the Dodgers were willing to take that chance. 

Agreed and they have an endless supply of money. Many clubs can’t afford to make a error on a contract like that or to take a hit for 3-4 prospects and be wrong.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, SkokieSox said:

Players with no red flags get 700 million dollar contracts 

I mean, a pitcher with multiple red flags just got the highest contact in baseball history for a pitcher based on theoretical ceiling alone.

[Rolle Tide]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

I mean, a pitcher with multiple red flags just got the highest contact in baseball history for a pitcher based on theoretical ceiling alone.

A stupid contract by any measure….but they are one of a few teams that can piss money away 

[ChiSoxFanMike]

17+ pages of posts today and absolutely nothing has happened. Never change, SoxTalk.

[SkokieSox]

5 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

Othani has plenty of red flags

Then why ask the question if Cease has red flags? Seems like a dumb question. 

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

Who is “We’re” …..Are you a mouse in Getz pocket?  Regardless to what you or I think has nothing to do with what happens. Being a troll doesn’t get you anywhere. Our lower tier prospects as you call them would be in the top 5 in most systems. They only aren’t because the farm is so deep. You guys have talked about a Yankees deal. They don’t have a prospect rated within 20 slots of Ortiz. Depending on the rating venue Norby is just outside the top 100. Bradfield is another really good prospect. McDermott and Povich are close to the Yankees pitchers mentioned in this thread. Hampton is the only ranked by mlb.com at 95. 

I think you guys have elevated these prospects to levels above their true worth.  If you were to exclude your top five, I think Joey Ortiz is the only one who would be in our top five.  Norby & Povich in particular are so overrated by you guys it’s not even funny.  And the bulk of your fans don’t have any sense of expected bust rates for this next tier of prospects…which is incredibly high and makes them much less valuable than you think.

[almagest]

3 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

Who is “We’re” …..Are you a mouse in Getz pocket?  Regardless to what you or I think has nothing to do with what happens. Being a troll doesn’t get you anywhere. Our lower tier prospects as you call them would be in the top 5 in most systems. They only aren’t because the farm is so deep. You guys have talked about a Yankees deal. They don’t have a prospect rated within 20 slots of Ortiz. Depending on the rating venue Norby is just outside the top 100. Bradfield is another really good prospect. McDermott and Povich are close to the Yankees pitchers mentioned in this thread. Hampton is the only ranked by mlb.com at 95. 

If I'm "trolling" by posting what White Sox fans expect from a Cease trade on a White Sox fan message board, then you're ABSOLUTELY trolling by coming here and telling us that you're not trading anyone in the top 40 overall prospects or in your team's top 5, and we should be content with a 26 year old glove first shortstop who sucked in a cup of coffee and some 45 FV pitchers who would be lucky to top out at Cease's floor. No thanks, we think we can likely get that or better elsewhere.