Cease To Padres per Passan

[ron883]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

In Kjerstad’s case, he contracted myocarditis shortly after being drafted in 2020, and therefore did not play at all in 2021.   He tore a hammy in spring training 2022 so never got into a minor league game until June 2022, when he was 23.   He’s had less than two years of minor league experience but made amazing strides last year.  

I went through Ortiz in another post. 

 

Hmmm, I wonder what caused this???? 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

8 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I’d love to see if you could get Jett and Baty. That would be my initial ask

If that’s even possible, I’d rather have that over a Cowser/ortiz. 

[ron883]

@Rolle Tide @Frobby @Sports Guy Imagine wanting Joey "Nick Madrigal" Ortiz!

[Rolle Tide]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Clevinger has such a terrible reputation around the industry, Mr. Yale isn’t going to risk adding him to the clubhouse mix unless he has no other feasible alternative.

Look at how much Severino Montas Giolito etc. are going for.

They’re going to have to go well beyond the Gibson price tag.

 

Wore out his welcome in CLE and SD.  Same will happen again in a similar situation under high pressure.  He needs to pitch in relative obscurity imo.  He’s certainly not the guy you can count on in the clubhouse to hold everyone together as one unified front pulling in the same direction.

And he’s had two major elbow injuries so his health is basically a ticking time bomb…his mechanics have always been spotty/erratic.

If it were my decision I’d give a lot for Burnes and extend him. Unfortunately it’s not and we have to wait for the ownership change to get out from under the Curse of Peter Angelos

[Chicago White Sox]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I have not accused anyone on this site of being biased.  But I did just give you a credible (IMO) postseason list that had Ortiz over Schultz.  I fully recognize that other lists, and maybe the majority of them, will put Schultz higher.  

Anyway, as you are well aware, I’ve never proposed Ortiz as the headline piece for Cease, only the second piece, with Norby as an alternative choice.  I’ve asked for explanations of why fans don’t want Ortiz, and have given some details of why I think he’d help the Sox.  But if the Sox don’t think Ortiz fits their plan, fine.   I’ve certainly done and said nothing to try to “shove Ortiz down your throats.”   
 

Frobby - I have nothing but respect for you & your opinions and my “biased” statement is directed entirely at Role Tide.  You are a greater poster and I’ve enjoyed having debates with you…haven’t meant to come off as aggressive and apologize if I did.

As for the Just Baseball list, I am admittedly not as familiar with them so would need to dive through and form an opinion.  I generally place the greatest value on Baseball America with Pipeline, Fangraphs, & Keith Law next in line.

[SkokieSox]

19 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

Say what you want …. I really don’t even want Cease. I’d sign Clevinger, Bieber or trade for Burnes, Valdez , or one of the Seattle guys if they are still available. I don’t think Elias needs to drop his pants to get a deal done. He needs to find someone that’s an upgrade over Gibson. You guys act like it’s Cease or bust and Elias should send Mayo, Kjerstad, Basallo, or (not sure if anyone here has brought up ) Holiday.

Have at it ? He does need to drop his pants. And if he doesn’t, cool. What we’re tired of is your opinion that Getz needs to drop his pants, when he’s the one holding the asset. 

[Chicago White Sox]

13 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I’d love to see if you could get Jett and Baty. That would be my initial ask

I just feel like you have to come away with one of their LH OFs whether Clifford or Gilbert.

[Rolle Tide]

6 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Cease is not the only option but he is the best cost controlled option. If you want to settle for clevinger and his price tag or pay nearly as much for a single year of the others that's your perogative but you will need to go through the same process next year and give up more prospects because the Orioles are not signing long term FA just like the Sox. 

Cease has some good numbers and 1 great season. His drop in FB velocity and high walk rate have me concerned. I’d still trade for him …I just wouldn’t overpay beyond what I think is his median production 3.75-4.25 ERA. I know what FIP says …. But I’m concerned over the stuff I mentioned. If he ends up being what he was 2 years ago it would be a major win ….but one I’m not counting on and it appears most/all the GMs in baseball. Otherwise someone would’ve mortgaged the farm by now to get him….imo 

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I just feel like you have to come away with one of their LH OFs whether Clifford or Gilbert.

Those were the 2 they got for Scherzer and Verlander right? I know they got 2 OFs from those trades.

[Snopek]

19 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

Say what you want …. I really don’t even want Cease. I’d sign Clevinger, Bieber or trade for Burnes, Valdez , or one of the Seattle guys if they are still available. I don’t think Elias needs to drop his pants to get a deal done. He needs to find someone that’s an upgrade over Gibson. You guys act like it’s Cease or bust and Elias should send Mayo, Kjerstad, Basallo, or (not sure if anyone here has brought up ) Holiday.

As someone who actually likes the O’s and has enjoyed watching their rise while waiting out this absolute shitshow that is the White Sox, I sure hope the bar is a little higher than a Kyle Gibson upgrade.

[Rolle Tide]

2 minutes ago, SkokieSox said:

Have at it ? He does need to drop his pants. And if he doesn’t, cool. What we’re tired of is your opinion that Getz needs to drop his pants, when he’s the one holding the asset. 

Indeed .,.. there is a mile between the rumored asking price from the Reds and dropping his pants. I don’t I’ve mentioned Getz dropping his pants. 

[caulfield12]

16 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

Fuji is gone … Elias has done well with scrap heap guys, Rule 5, and minor trades. Especially in the pen….Hes added Webb, Fuji, Cano, Coulombe, C Perez, and Felix Bautista for next to nothing. Holt and our organizational development has had good success.

Sure, but that’s always going to be a crap shoot…and Bautista had A+ stuff. And if your closer spot is a weakness, it trickles down across the entire pen as you push each guy one step up the rung to cover for someone else.

The White Sox always used to fill out their pen this way too in the 90s and 2000’s…instead of overpaying for past performance and especially big name back end guys.

Then the talent development fell short and they to start spending on the likes of Koch, Robertson, Dotel, Linebrink, Hendriks, etc., eventually leading to the most expensive bullpens in modern baseball history from 2021-23 under Hahn.  They tried to be the 2016/17 Royals on the expensive downside instead of the of the 2012-2015 Royals on the cheaper upswing.

For 75-80% of baseball, it’s a year to year guessing game.

 

Another example,  The Padres had arguably the best closer in MLB history in Hader last year and four stars and another statistically in Kim…and Josh had a very very solid year except for one short spell, Preller still spent a lot on their pen overall and went something like 9-23 in one run games and 0-12 or 0-13 in extras.  There are no guarantees in baseball.  

Especially in the AL East with the level of competition ramping up even more this offseason.  Standing pat like the Jays gets you left behind in the dust.

Edited January 6 by caulfield12

[Rolle Tide]

Just now, Snopek said:

As someone who actually likes the O’s and has enjoyed watching their rise while waiting out this absolute shitshow that is the White Sox, I sure hope the bar is a little higher than a Kyle Gibson upgrade.

I guess you’d have to have a barometer for what that actually means. When the season opened Elias mentioned adding a veteran ACE. Later he mentioned a guy somewhere in the 1-3 range. I think that’s better than Gibson but Gibson isn’t just a 5th starter. He gave the Orioles innings, veteran leadership, and pitched some pretty good games. If I had to rank him I’d say he’s a solid 4th starter. I think Elias passed with his eyes on a bigger prize, perhaps he overestimated the market again. They sure did that last year at his own admission. 

[SkokieSox]

Just now, Rolle Tide said:

Indeed .,.. there is a mile between the rumored asking price from the Reds and dropping his pants. I don’t I’ve mentioned Getz dropping his pants. 

It’s inferred when condescending language is used on what Getz should accept in a deal.  

[Chicago White Sox]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, your position has moved quite a bit over the last few weeks based on your perception of a “hot market.”   But I’m not sure, when the currency is prospects rather than cash, that the market really changes much, if at all.  You are still weighing your evaluation of the players on each side of trade, the service time they have remaining, and the risks involved.  

I personally would never trade Mayo, Kjerstad and McDermott for two years of Cease.  Would Elias?  I doubt it, but I don’t know.  Not do I know if these other teams might bite at your suggestions.   I guess we’ll see.  
 

I’m admittedly trolling some here with this proposal for the O’s.  Realistically, I think a hot market price could theoretically push a Kjerstad centerpiece to a Mayo centerpiece.  Not suggesting Elias would do that, but just saying what it might take if the Yankees were to theoretically offer up someone like Dominguez.

[almagest]

I don’t think anyone is arguing that a Cowser/Ortiz headliner, with another piece or two for lotto tickets, is a bad deal. I’m not big on Ortiz for the reasons I’ve already mentioned so I’d prefer a different player, but the headliner is definitely solid. It sounds like that’s not even on the table though, based on the leaked ask from the Sox and what @Harold's Leg Lift had said about the Orioles not being serious. If the O’s are trying to headline with someone like Ortiz or Norby then it’s not even worth discussing.

[chw42]

2 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

I guess you’d have to have a barometer for what that actually means. When the season opened Elias mentioned adding a veteran ACE. Later he mentioned a guy somewhere in the 1-3 range. I think that’s better than Gibson but Gibson isn’t just a 5th starter. He gave the Orioles innings, veteran leadership, and pitched some pretty good games. If I had to rank him I’d say he’s a solid 4th starter. I think Elias passed with his eyes on a bigger prize, perhaps he overestimated the market again. They sure did that last year at his own admission. 

Haha, I've definitely heard that one before while the Sox were in their contention window. 

[SkokieSox]

1 minute ago, almagest said:

I don’t think anyone is arguing that a Cowser/Ortiz headliner, with another piece or two for lotto tickets, is a bad deal. I’m not big on Ortiz for the reasons I’ve already mentioned so I’d prefer a different player, but the headliner is definitely solid. It sounds like that’s not even on the table though, based on the leaked ask from the Sox and what @Harold's Leg Lift had said about the Orioles not being serious. If the O’s are trying to headline with someone like Ortiz or Norby then it’s not even worth discussing.

Headlining Ortiz wouldn’t even be realistic for 1 year of Cease, let alone 2

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

Cease has some good numbers and 1 great season. His drop in FB velocity and high walk rate have me concerned. I’d still trade for him …I just wouldn’t overpay beyond what I think is his median production 3.75-4.25 ERA. I know what FIP says …. But I’m concerned over the stuff I mentioned. If he ends up being what he was 2 years ago it would be a major win ….but one I’m not counting on and it appears most/all the GMs in baseball. Otherwise someone would’ve mortgaged the farm by now to get him….imo 

Not with Snell Montgomery and Imanata all waiting on $100+ million deals…with a ticking deadline of the 14th coming up for the Japanese pitcher, a deal has to get done relatively quickly.

Then everyone’s left eying the same group of 3-4 options.

Who knows…maybe the Marlins blink and drop the price on Luzardo first.  Or the Guardians and Brewers decide they really can’t afford to carry Bieber and Burnes.

But then there will always be pitching injuries in the spring as well…WBC or not.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Frobby - I have nothing but respect for you & your opinions and my “biased” statement is directed entirely at Role Tide.  You are a greater poster and I’ve enjoyed having debates with you…haven’t meant to come off as aggressive and apologize if I did.

As for the Just Baseball list, I am admittedly not as familiar with them so would need to dive through and form an opinion.  I generally place the greatest value on Baseball America with Pipeline, Fangraphs, & Keith Law next in line.

Don’t worry, I am not easily offended.  

I agree that those sites you listed are all ones I look at.  Also Baseball Prospectus at times.   Just Baseball is one I came across this summer when their principal, Adam Leighton, was being interviewed about the Orioles’ most recent draft.  They have a weekly podcast that I’ve now listened to a couple of times and it’s pretty good.  Here’s a late-season article from them about the White Sox farm system.  
https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/where-the-chicago-white-sox-farm-system-stands/

[Tnetennba]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

In Kjerstad’s case, he contracted myocarditis shortly after being drafted in 2020, and therefore did not play at all in 2021.   He tore a hammy in spring training 2022 so never got into a minor league game until June 2022, when he was 23.   He’s had less than two years of minor league experience but made amazing strides last year.  

I went through Ortiz in another post. 

 

Appreciate the insight. I do sometimes forget that a number of minor leaguers lost a whole season of development during Covid and that was a huge monkey wrench in their development timelines.

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Haha, I've definitely heard that one before while the Sox were in their contention window. 

Kyle Gibson wasn’t even good enough for the Twins.

Nice try puffing him up to be something he’s not by the O’s fans, but everyone has known his pluses and minuses for the last five years, if not longer than that.

[caulfield12]

Just now, Tnetennba said:

Appreciate the insight. I do sometimes forget that a number of minor leaguers lost a whole season of development during Covid and that was a huge monkey wrench in their development timelines.

See Kopech Crochet Burger Vaughn

[Chicago White Sox]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I do care what Tony has to say.  There are some other Orioles-related sites that rank their prospects where I really don’t care much what they say, because they’re too biased towards the O’s prospects.  Tony has a pretty good track record of being somewhat objective.  Nobody gets these things right every time anyway.  

100%.  And James is our Tony.  Doesn’t mean you always have to agree with him, but he’s not your average fan who will overrate all their prospects.  And I read through most of Tony’s stuff and think he does a great job.  But at the end of the day, we should all form our opinions through a variety of sources and that holds especially true when it comes to prospects.

[hi8is]

I like grapes.