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Cease To Padres per Passan


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3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I would question this. I would say his value is likely higher in July if he's exactly the same pitcher as last year, unless he is hurt.

Agree.  Injury and completely sucking are the two risks.  If they don't love the offers, its worth the risk to hold him.   

If he is better, you'll probably get more.  

Depending on what is being offered right now, if he is the same or somewhere in between, you could end up getting the same or more. 

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Pitching in teh MLB is going to go toward load management more and more.  You need guys in August, September and October.  Not May and June.  

Pitchers are pitchign less and that will continue.  I htink we will get to 25 starts and 150 innigns as the base line.  Seems this is the baseline with the Braves and Sale.   

All of this is MHO.

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12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I would question this. I would say his value is likely higher in July if he's exactly the same pitcher as last year, unless he is hurt.

That’s not likely. You want to point to more teams being interested…all of those teams could get him right now and the determined that he’s not good enough to justify the asking price and they went with other options. So now you think they pay more for less starts?

Again, it’s possible but he has to be pitching at a higher level.  
 

There is also just the thought of Getz asking for way too much.  By all accounts, Cease was eligible to be traded last July and the ask was too much. This seems to be a theme. He obviously worth a high price tag last deadline but now he will be a year later?  

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3 minutes ago, Harry Chappas said:

Pitching in teh MLB is going to go toward load management more and more.  You need guys in August, September and October.  Not May and June.  

Pitchers are pitchign less and that will continue.  I htink we will get to 25 starts and 150 innigns as the base line.  Seems this is the baseline with the Braves and Sale.   

All of this is MHO.

It will be interesting how the decreased time between pitches changes it. 

Pitchers  can no longer throw with max effort, wait a minute to recover and repeat the process. 

Hopefully we start to see more pitching and less throwing and the starts will last longer. I think it will take time for that to happen though. 

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s not likely. You want to point to more teams being interested…all of those teams could get him right now and the determined that he’s not good enough to justify the asking price and they went with other options. So now you think they pay more for less starts?

Again, it’s possible but he has to be pitching at a higher level.  
 

There is also just the thought of Getz asking for way too much.  By all accounts, Cease was eligible to be traded last July and the ask was too much. This seems to be a theme. He obviously worth a high price tag last deadline but now he will be a year later?  

And these teams will again be looking to add pitching in the summer. Never fails.

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s not likely. You want to point to more teams being interested…all of those teams could get him right now and the determined that he’s not good enough to justify the asking price and they went with other options. So now you think they pay more for less starts?

Again, it’s possible but he has to be pitching at a higher level.  
 

There is also just the thought of Getz asking for way too much.  By all accounts, Cease was eligible to be traded last July and the ask was too much. This seems to be a theme. He obviously worth a high price tag last deadline but now he will be a year later?  

I disagree. It goes back to the negotiations discussion. You are negating the fact that when teams feel they are close they get desperate. This is more likely to happen at the trade deadline because the team may be tied with two other and want to get him to win but also to keep a competitor from getting him. 

The value of a player is not solely based on him and his performance. The market makes the value. 

The trade deadline may be a different market. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

And these teams will again be looking to add pitching in the summer. Never fails.

Yeah, teams don’t have injuries to worry about now. At the deadline, there are a lot more holes to fill due to injuries.  You also have teams like the Reds and Tigers that might not know how competitive they will be that decide to push their chips in if they are contending.

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

We should also be able to agree that pitchers fetch more at the deadline than they do in the offseason. That’s the general rule of thumb.

 

 

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Again, pitching fetches more at the deadline than the offseason most of the time but that pitcher has to be pitching well.  

 

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s not likely. You want to point to more teams being interested…all of those teams could get him right now and the determined that he’s not good enough to justify the asking price and they went with other options. So now you think they pay more for less starts?

 

How is it that pitching fetches more at the deadline most of the time and is the general rule of thumb but also teams wont pay more for less starts?

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4 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I disagree. It goes back to the negotiations discussion. You are negating the fact that when teams feel they are close they get desperate. This is more likely to happen at the trade deadline because the team may be tied with two other and want to get him to win but also to keep a competitor from getting him. 

The value of a player is not solely based on him and his performance. The market makes the value. 

The trade deadline may be a different market. 

Well considering I’m acknowledging that he could be worth more, I’m not negating anything. What I am doing is casting doubt. Your last line says everything…the market MAY be different.  Yes, it may. It may also not. It may also be a worse market. There are so many unknown factors and variables that all you are doing is hoping. That’s a bad strategy. If he ends up getting hurt or pitches poorly or it’s found out that he microwaves kittens for enjoyment, the value is down and you guys miss out on trading one of your only pieces that can bring back good talent and at that point, you either sell for 50 cents on the dollar or you keep hoping every time of the team you look to trade him, he’s doing better. 

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2 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

 

 

How is it that pitching fetches more at the deadline most of the time and is the general rule of thumb but also teams wont pay more for less starts?

Again, you are comparing value now vs value later.  He COULD be worth more later. He likely won’t be. 
 

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11 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

And these teams will again be looking to add pitching in the summer. Never fails.

It’s possible…and Cease may or may not be a guy available. Cease may or may not be a guy they want. Cease may be a guy that is or isn’t worth what he’s worth now. 

A few weeks ago, you guys had 5-8 suitors. Now it may only be 1 or 2. Other pitchers will be available too. 

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When discussing this, most of you are only looking as the best case scenario. 

None of you are saying, maybe Getz is just asking for too much and that he needs to adjust to avoid any potential longer term issues.

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2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Again, you are comparing value now vs value later.  He COULD be worth more later. He likely won’t be. 
 

You said you believe the general rule of thumb is that pitching fetches more at the deadline.  How is it likely that Cease is the exception to this rule?  

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Just now, Sports Guy said:

When discussing this, most of you are only looking as the best case scenario. 

None of you are saying, maybe Getz is just asking for too much.

I don't think one person is looking at the best case scenario.  Everyone pretty much said "He could get hurt but its worth the risk if the offers are poor"

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8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well considering I’m acknowledging that he could be worth more, I’m not negating anything. What I am doing is casting doubt. Your last line says everything…the market MAY be different.  Yes, it may. It may also not. It may also be a worse market. There are so many unknown factors and variables that all you are doing is hoping. That’s a bad strategy. If he ends up getting hurt or pitches poorly or it’s found out that he microwaves kittens for enjoyment, the value is down and you guys miss out on trading one of your only pieces that can bring back good talent and at that point, you either sell for 50 cents on the dollar or you keep hoping every time of the team you look to trade him, he’s doing better. 

I hate to tell you this but nothing is 100% true all of the time. 

You said you doubt it, I said it may. 

I think the odds are better that it will, hence when you said you doubt it, I disagreed. 

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7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

When discussing this, most of you are only looking as the best case scenario. 

None of you are saying, maybe Getz is just asking for too much and that he needs to adjust to avoid any potential longer term issues.

I think most of us have agreed with this. What we are saying is right now he should be asking for too much and see if a team goes for it. He doesn't need to be in a rush to trade RIGHT NOW. 

Why lower the ask now? You could say because teams aren't offering what he wants. The counter is he is still working on getting the best package. If it doesn't happen now, it may at the trade deadline. 

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13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

When discussing this, most of you are only looking as the best case scenario. 

None of you are saying, maybe Getz is just asking for too much and that he needs to adjust to avoid any potential longer term issues.

Wrong. Many are saying dump him now even if the package is underwhelming. I spent most of yesterday arguing that they should NOT do this.

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1 minute ago, Nardiwashere said:

You said you believe the general rule of thumb is that pitching fetches more at the deadline.  How is it likely that Cease is the exception to this rule?  

It’s not so much that he’s an exception…it’s that it’s a huge risk to hope that he’s going to all of a sudden be worth a huge package.

The ask now is a huge package of players. The question is, will he be worth a huge package of players come July?  
 

That’s not the same thing as saying he’s worth more in July than now. The question is, what is he actually worth now and is the potential of him being worth more than that worth the risk of holding onto him?

See, as of right now, we dont know what he’s worth. If reports are true, we know what the WS are asking for but that’s different than what he’s worth.

For the sake of argument, let’s say he’s worth one top 50 guy, a borderline top 100 guy and a lottery ticket right now. 
 

Now, let’s say he has a good first half. At that point, he may be worth 1 top 50 guy, a more solid top 100 guy, another solid prospect and a lottery ticket. So, one more good prospect and a slightly better second piece.

But that’s a different discussion than saying he will be worth multiple top 50 prospects and other players, which is what he would have to be worth to see an increase in value vs what Getz is asking.

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16 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

I don't think one person is looking at the best case scenario.  Everyone pretty much said "He could get hurt but its worth the risk if the offers are poor"

But your basis for “offers are poor” is what?  You have zero idea what has been offered. It’s far more likely that Getz is asking for too much vs every single offer being poor.

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49 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

One or two extra pitchers on the market doesn't likely make a difference here. How many teams will be in need of at least 1 starting pitcher? Last year, the Astros didn't obviously need another starter in July, they emptied out their minors entirely for Verlander, and they wound up moving their rookie starter to the bullpen rather than relying on him for the playoffs when he struggled down the stretch. 

There will be 15 to 20 teams genuinely in contention, a few teams stuck in the middle, and maybe 8 teams that think they're out of it enough to sell. Those 8 teams will be really bad teams, so they will move the pieces they have but won't have a lot to move. 

I doubt it will be one or two extra pitchers.  There will be many others become available just like every year.  About a year ago, not many would have predicted Flaherty, Montgomery, Scherzer, Verlander, Civale, and Bieber (injured just before the deadline) would be available.  

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Just now, Snowy Demon said:

I doubt it will be one or two extra pitchers.  There will be many others become available just like every year.  About a year ago, not many would have predicted Flaherty, Montgomery, Scherzer, Verlander, Civale, and Bieber (injured just before the deadline) would be available.  

And in general, the returns for those guys were strong compared to their performance levels, weren't they? 

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7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But your basis for “offers are poor” is what?  You have zero idea what has been offered. It’s far more likely that Getz is asking for too much vs every single offer being poor.

Couldn’t two things be possible — either Getz is asking for too much or other teams aren’t offering enough?  I mean, the Yankees supposedly wouldn’t even include Spencer Jones (#73 overall) in a trade for Cease, when they already have Jasson Dominguez.  Is Jones really too high of an ask as the frontlining prospect in a trade for Cease?  I don’t think so.

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18 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I think most of us have agreed with this. What we are saying is right now he should be asking for too much and see if a team goes for it. He doesn't need to be in a rush to trade RIGHT NOW. 

Why lower the ask now? You could say because teams aren't offering what he wants. The counter is he is still working on getting the best package. If it doesn't happen now, it may at the trade deadline. 

Sigh.

No one is saying he has to do it right now. 

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2 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Is Jones really too high of an ask as the frontlining prospect in a trade for Cease?  I don’t think so.

But the Yankees seem to think so, which is all that really matters at the moment.

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