JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 (edited) 3 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said: Is this a serious post? I agree with your first sentence but Lopez is a pathetic and embarrassing starting infielder for any major league team, just like DeJong. Both were backup infielders last year and DeJong was cut by two teams. No other team in baseball would be planning to start one of these bums on opening day, much less both of them. To compare Westburg to Lopez is pretty far out there. Westburg will improve. Lopez is what he is, a slappy no bat infielder with a good glove, and as he gets older his glove will disappear. Doesn’t change the fact that Westburg isn’t a difference maker. That was the original discussion. It’s not as crazy as you might think. Westburg was a top 10 Orioles prospect with a 55 FV last year. López was a top 10 Royals prospect with a 50 FV in the 2018/2019. Westburg is projected for 1.9 fWAR in 2024, López is 0.6. Better? Sure. Big upgrade difference maker? Nah. Especially when you’re subtracting your top pitcher from the team the next two seasons. So yea 101 losses goes to maybe 95 losses next couple seasons maybe worse. And then Westburg starts arb years in 2027. I’d rather have someone younger with more upside personally. Edited January 19 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 (edited) 1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Doesn’t change the fact that Westburg isn’t a difference maker. That was the original discussion. It’s not as crazy as you might think. Westburg was a top 10 Orioles prospect with a 55 FV last year. López was a top 10 Royals prospect with a 50 FV in the 2018/2019. Westburg is projected for 1.9 fWAR in 2024, López is 0.6. Better? Sure. Big upgrade difference maker? Nah. Especially when you’re subtracting your top pitcher from the team the next two seasons. So yea 101 losses goes to maybe 95 losses next couple seasons maybe worse. And then Westburg starts arb years in 2027. I’d rather have someone younger with more upside personally. Nicky Lopez was a top Royals prospect because he could actually hit in the minors, to go along with his good glove. His career minor league line is .296/.379/.403/.782. Similar to Madrigal, the slappy slap game works in the minors but not in the MLB. Lopez has now had plenty of time in the majors (5 seasons) and has proven he just can’t hit well in the bigs, which is obvious from his .249/.312/.319/.631 career MLB line. Westburg is 24 and had a career minor league line of .278/.371/.506/.877. He may actually have HR power in the majors, unlike Lopez who has zero. Westburg only has a total of 208 career MLB at bats. While his 208 rookie at bats were mediocre, it was still better than anything Lopez has done recently, and he still has the opportunity to improve. It is far too early to make the assumption that Westburg couldn’t be a big upgrade/difference maker over the pathetic Nicky Lopez, who is the acquisition equivalent of burning $4.3 million dollars in your fireplace for this current Sox team. I do agree that I would rather acquire someone younger than Westburg whose service time hasn’t already started in any Cease trade. Edited January 19 by WhiteSox2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 Why the f*** are we comparing Jordan Westburg to Nicky Lopez? 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 54 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said: Nicky Lopez was a top Royals prospect because he could actually hit in the minors, to go along with his good glove. His career minor league line is .296/.379/.403/.782. Similar to Madrigal, the slappy slap game works in the minors but not in the MLB. Lopez has now had plenty of time in the majors (5 seasons) and has proven he just can’t hit well in the bigs, which is obvious from his .249/.312/.319/.631 career MLB line. Westburg is 24 and had a career minor league line of .278/.371/.506/.877. He may actually have HR power in the majors, unlike Lopez who has zero. Westburg only has a total of 208 career MLB at bats. While his 208 rookie at bats were mediocre, it was still better than anything Lopez has done recently, and he still has the opportunity to improve. It is far too early to make the assumption that Westburg couldn’t be a big upgrade/difference maker over the pathetic Nicky Lopez, who is the acquisition equivalent of burning $4.3 million dollars in your fireplace for this current Sox team. I do agree that I would rather acquire someone younger than Westburg whose service time hasn’t already started in any Cease trade. Well yea and maybe someone that turns 25 before the season starts shouldn’t be the main piece of a Cease trade. Crazy take I know. Westburg doesn’t move the needle for me at all. He may become a solid mlb regular at 2b or 3b but that doesn’t move the needle for the Sox either. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 11 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Well yea and maybe someone that turns 25 before the season starts shouldn’t be the main piece of a Cease trade. Crazy take I know. Westburg doesn’t move the needle for me at all. He may become a solid mlb regular at 2b or 3b but that doesn’t move the needle for the Sox either. So you wouldn’t want Kjerstad either then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: So you wouldn’t want Kjerstad either then? I’m just not a big fan of Orioles top prospects outside their top 3, mainly because they’re all seemingly in their mid 20s. They’re better suited for a team that’s closer to competing and/or a team that has a bunch of existing prospects in AAA that are mlb ready in 2024. That’s not the Sox situation at all. It’s why the Yankees are such a great match if the Sox can land two 22 year olds in Jones and Hampton. Doesn’t sound like the Yankees are willing to trade Jones though so that really sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y2Jimmy0 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 hours ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said: Yeah they are not winning anything with that pitching staff as it is currently constructed. Again, I question whether you’ve actually watched playoff baseball 1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said: Why the f*** are we comparing Jordan Westburg to Nicky Lopez? Extremely weird and short-sighted behavior 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Y2Jimmy0 said: Again, I question whether you’ve actually watched playoff baseball Extremely weird and short-sighted behavior Sorry Jimmy but I think trading for guys like Kjerstad and Westburg as the main return is extremely weird and short sighted behavior. Is this team ready to contend this year or next year? If not, then it makes much more sense to acquire younger prospects that are mlb ready in late 2025 and beyond. Why are we wanting guys that turn 25 before this season starts and their service clock has already started given the current state of the Sox? Makes ZERO sense to me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Sorry Jimmy but I think trading for guys like Kjerstad and Westburg as the main return is extremely weird and short sighted behavior. Is this team ready to contend this year or next year? If not, then it makes much more sense to acquire younger prospects that are mlb ready in late 2025 and beyond. Why are we wanting guys that turn 25 before this season starts and their service clock has already started given the current state of the Sox? Makes ZERO sense to me. I don’t disagree with your overall point here. But if I can play devils advocate for a moment. You are pining for Jones who will be in his mid 20s once he’s ready to be a full time MLer and you have no idea if he will even develop. Westburg is already a good MLer. Kjerstad showed some signs last year at the ML level and his MiL resume is very strong..far better than what Jones has done so far and Kjerstad is obviously done with the minors in terms of needing to prove himself. I feel like you are really overestimating wither what Spencer Jones is or what you should be getting back. You mentioned that so and so doesn’t move the needle. Guys like Westburg and Kjerstad are 2-3 WAR players with the upside to be more than that. Do you think those guys just grow on trees? You aren’t getting a super star talent for Cease. That would have come had you traded him after 2022 but you didn’t. So unless you are just going to trade him for 4-5 18-20 year old prospects where you are doing nothing but hope you get back your Tatis Jr, you just aren’t getting that stud top 20 prospect. So while I do get wanting younger players I also think you are completely undervaluing the value of good to very good players and are overvaluing what you can get for Cease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: I don’t disagree with your overall point here. But if I can play devils advocate for a moment. You are pining for Jones who will be in his mid 20s once he’s ready to be a full time MLer and you have no idea if he will even develop. Westburg is already a good MLer. Kjerstad showed some signs last year at the ML level and his MiL resume is very strong..far better than what Jones has done so far and Kjerstad is obviously done with the minors in terms of needing to prove himself. I feel like you are really overestimating wither what Spencer Jones is or what you should be getting back. You mentioned that so and so doesn’t move the needle. Guys like Westburg and Kjerstad are 2-3 WAR players with the upside to be more than that. Do you think those guys just grow on trees? You aren’t getting a super star talent for Cease. That would have come had you traded him after 2022 but you didn’t. So unless you are just going to trade him for 4-5 18-20 year old prospects where you are doing nothing but hope you get back your Tatis Jr, you just aren’t getting that stud top 20 prospect. So while I do get wanting younger players I also think you are completely undervaluing the value of good to very good players and are overvaluing what you can get for Cease. A couple 2-3 WAR mlb players is a fine return but the timeline makes zero sense. What good is a 3 WAR player like Cease doing for the Sox in 2024 and 2025? They need those players in 2026/2027 and beyond and unfortunately guys like Westburg and Kjerstad are already in their final year of pre arb in 2026. The timeline makes zero sense for the Sox situation. They don’t need this production over the next 2-3 years. They need it at the earliest starting in 2026 but more likely starting in 2027. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Also, do you trust your player development to develop far away from the majors players? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harold's Leg Lift Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 hours ago, Fielder Jones said: i kinda felt the opposite, like the Sox are the ones messaging through all these writers saying no-trade-likely. thats the last threat left-- that we'd take cease into the season. Well that doesn't seem to be the case this time. I'm told it's an unaccurate report and it came from the O's side. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, Sports Guy said: Also, do you trust your player development to develop far away from the majors players? If they can’t develop young guys then none of this matters anyways because they’ll always be a terrible team. Jerry isn’t spending Cohen level money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: A couple 2-3 WAR mlb players is a fine return but the timeline makes zero sense. What good is a 3 WAR player like Cease doing for the Sox in 2024 and 2025? They need those players in 2026/2027 and beyond and unfortunately guys like Westburg and Kjerstad are already in their final year of pre arb in 2026. The timeline makes zero sense for the Sox situation. They don’t need this production over the next 2-3 years. They need it at the earliest starting in 2026 but more likely starting in 2027. That’s fine and I get your point but if they are playing at a relatively high level when it’s time to contend, that’s not a bad thing. You are assuming that you get some 20 y/o A ball player and that they WILL develop and be good. These guys are already developed. Considering a theme on this board is that “we must hit on this trade”’, advocating for a lot of lottery tickets is certainly an odd thing imo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: That’s fine and I get your point but if they are playing at a relatively high level when it’s time to contend, that’s not a bad thing. You are assuming that you get some 20 y/o A ball player and that they WILL develop and be good. These guys are already developed. Considering a theme on this board is that “we must hit on this trade”’, advocating for a lot of lottery tickets is certainly an odd thing imo. Jones and Hampton aren’t “lottery tickets.” Keep in mind, the Sox had two top 5 mlb prospects in Moncada and Jimenez that were far surer things than any prospects the Orioles currently have outside Holliday and look how that turned out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 (edited) 34 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Sorry Jimmy but I think trading for guys like Kjerstad and Westburg as the main return is extremely weird and short sighted behavior. Is this team ready to contend this year or next year? If not, then it makes much more sense to acquire younger prospects that are mlb ready in late 2025 and beyond. Why are we wanting guys that turn 25 before this season starts and their service clock has already started given the current state of the Sox? Makes ZERO sense to me. One reason is that there is more risk with younger prospects that don’t have consecutive years of success in the minors. Guys like Kjerstad and Westburg are obvious targets. Do you have any faith that the Sox of all teams would actually pick the right younger prospects with any percentage of success? Edited January 19 by WhiteSox2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Jones and Hampton aren’t “lottery tickets.” Keep in mind, the Sox had two top 5 mlb prospects in Moncada and Jimenez that were far surer things than any prospects the Orioles currently have outside Holliday and look how that turned out. Moncada and Eloy actually made it to the big leagues though. Picking from among much younger prospects and they may end up being guys that never even make the majors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 21 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said: Well that doesn't seem to be the case this time. I'm told it's an unaccurate report and it came from the O's side. So the Orioles put it out there that Getz’s price is too high? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said: Moncada and Eloy actually made it to the big leagues though. Picking from among much younger prospects and they may end up being guys that never even make the majors. Made it to the majors and two guys Sox fans can’t WAIT to get off the team. Sounds great lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 (edited) 5 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Made it to the majors and two guys Sox fans can’t WAIT to get off the team. Sounds great lol Sure, but that’s partly because our ownership is cheap so our GM immediately gave them both “cheap” contract extensions knowing that would be the only way he would retain them long-term, but it was also before he knew how prone they were to injury and how the guaranteed money would, ummm, not exactly motivate them going forward? Regardless of how you view Moncada and Eloy, they each made the majors and had a successful season or two. If you have faith that the Sox of all teams are going to pick out the right 20 year old A ball prospects that are for sure to make the majors and be successful, you are more of a gambler than I am. Edited January 19 by WhiteSox2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 (edited) 47 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Jones and Hampton aren’t “lottery tickets.” Keep in mind, the Sox had two top 5 mlb prospects in Moncada and Jimenez that were far surer things than any prospects the Orioles currently have outside Holliday and look how that turned out. 1) Just because other players failed doesn’t mean it will happen again. Whataboutism isn’t a good argument when it comes to stuff like this. 2) Jones had a 738 OPS in his short stint in AA. He hasn’t hit for a good average in the the higher levels of the minors he has gotten to so far and he struck out 133 times in about 450 plate appearances in single A. That’s a K rate of 30%…in A ball. He’s likely not on the table anyway and he’s probably a step above a lottery ticket but not by much. His performance thus far is very subpar. Hampton was a little better in AA than what Jones showed by he had a BB rate over 3 and a very high home run rate. His ERA was 4.37. You do like the K rate and he did average over 5 innings a start. Definitely some positives but he’s not some destined for greatness guy. I think you could get him it sounds like. But the point I’m making when I discuss a lottery ticket is more about what you are saying w/r/t players not moving the needle and being too old. Hampton and Jones are younger and will be younger when you theoretically contend but by that point, they will still be in the mid 20s. The only way you are getting a “needle mover” (as you seem to be defining it) and someone younger is if you take on lottery ticket, Tatis Jr type guys. By your definition, it’s unlikely Jones or Hampton will be needle movers either, so you have to go after the high risk/high reward type guys but then you are relying on your player development system to develop those guys. In other words, there is a good chance you trade Cease and end up with nothing for him. Edited January 19 by Sports Guy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 (edited) 1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Well yea and maybe someone that turns 25 before the season starts shouldn’t be the main piece of a Cease trade. Crazy take I know. Westburg doesn’t move the needle for me at all. He may become a solid mlb regular at 2b or 3b but that doesn’t move the needle for the Sox either. I wouldn’t want Westburg as the headliner in a Cease trade but I’d take him as a second piece. Sure, I wish he was a bit younger and his service time wasn’t already started but if he started at 2B for the Sox in 2024 and tears it up, you could always deal him for prospects as well. We also wouldn’t have to watch 500 wretched at bats by Nicky Lopez. Edited January 19 by WhiteSox2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 11 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said: Sure, but that’s partly because our ownership is cheap so our GM immediately gave them both “cheap” contract extensions knowing that would be the only way he would retain them long-term, but it was also before he knew how prone they were to injury and how the guaranteed money would, ummm, not exactly motivate them going forward? Regardless of how you view Moncada and Eloy, they each made the majors and had a successful season or two. If you have faith that the Sox of all teams are going to pick out the right 20 year old A ball prospects that are for sure to make the majors and be successful, you are more of a gambler than I am. Many Sox fans wanted those two guys gone two years ago and it has nothing to do with the extensions. Look, Cease was the “riskiest” and had the longest projection of the top prospects the Sox acquired in their 2017/2018 trades - Giolito, López, Jimenez, Moncada, Kopech being the other “premium” prospects. And he turned out to be the best of the bunch. Why would guys like Jones and Hampton be any riskier than Westburg and Kjerstad? Recent history proves otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 (edited) 6 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Many Sox fans wanted those two guys gone two years ago and it has nothing to do with the extensions. Look, Cease was the “riskiest” and had the longest projection of the top prospects the Sox acquired in their 2017/2018 trades - Giolito, López, Jimenez, Moncada, Kopech being the other “premium” prospects. And he turned out to be the best of the bunch. Why would guys like Jones and Hampton be any riskier than Westburg and Kjerstad? Recent history proves otherwise. Yeah, it had to do with them being injured every other month. What good is a productive player if they can’t stay healthy? And when one of those guys is a DH and still can’t stay healthy… I seem to remember that Cease was considered less risky from an injury perspective than Kopech because he already had TJ surgery before the draft. Kopech had the monster arm but it was obvious he was going to pay for it eventually. Edited January 19 by WhiteSox2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, WhiteSox2023 said: I seem to remember that Cease was considered less risky from an injury perspective than Kopech because he already had TJ surgery before the draft. Kopech had the monster arm but it was obvious he was going to pay for it eventually. Cease was a 21 year old that hadn’t pitched above A ball yet when they traded for him. He was considered very risky but also had a high ceiling. These are exactly the type of players the Sox should be targeting in this trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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