Cease To Padres per Passan

[WestEddy]

28 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

There's potential here, but the last MLB season for each of those three guys together adds up to -2.1 rWAR. It could absolutely wind up better than this, but it could wind up the worst rotation we've ever seen.

The really weird thing is that when people here regularly spout off that this team could lose more games than the '62 Mets (120), I don't see a crowd chase them down and angrily challenge them to describe exactly how that would happen, since it would be extremely hard for a team to be that bad. And to state this team will set the losses record is equally as ridiculous as saying this team could catch fire and win the World Series. 

 

[Nardiwashere]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Chris Getz took over as director of White Sox player development in 2017 according to his Wikipedia page. At the time, the White Sox had the #1 system in baseball, including up to 10 top-100 prospects as per the mid-2017 MLB.com rankings. That was then supplemented by top 5 draft picks in 2018 and 2019 and a top 15 pick in 2020, as well as all of the other draft rounds. 

This should have been an absolutely enormous batch of talent to develop. We look back at guys like Kopech, Eloy, Moncada, Lopez, Fuller, Rutherford, Collins with skepticism now, but a big portion of that is that they did not develop as well as guys ranked this highly should.

There's some truth to this but Kopech, Eloy, Moncada, Lopez weren't guys who spent time in the minors and were "developed."  I assume you meant Fullmer instead of Fuller.  He was in majors in 2016.  

Guys like Rutherford, Collins etc. also could have just sucked.  

Also, who knows what authority he had... I don't blame Chris Getz because Ryan Cordell was bad.  Maybe I'm wrong. 

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

To pin it all on development is unfair. It was likely a failure in both scouting (drafting) AND development. Guys like collins, Fulmer, Madrigal, etc. were highly flawed from the time they were drafted. I’m not sure that’s on Getz.

I agree it's unfair to pin it all on Getz. Most of that, frankly, I pin on Hahn, who was awful. However, it is a blatant, obvious, consistent, and undeniable record of developmental failure. This record would absolutely have meant that no other team in MLB would hire him for the same position, let alone promoted him. At the very least, there is reason for skepticism until proven otherwise, and this record should follow him around for the next few years.

If  the White Sox in 2027 have a 70 win big league team and a bottom 15 system, the previous failures at development would definitely be a relevant part of his record and would justify tossing him overboard. If multiple guys break out and this team is back to 88 wins, then the more recent success would be more important than the previous failures. 

[TaylorStSox]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I mean at the top of that list Moncada, Eloy and Lopez made it to the majors at the top of their game, and regressed at the major league level.

It's like blaming the Bobcats because Adam Morrison never "developed." Yoan Moncada was a finished product. His production is on him, not the half year he spent in the Sox system.

[Quin]

1 hour ago, PaleAleSox said:

What players was he given to develop that had any shot to begin with? 

Let me brush off my We Didn't Start The Fire keyboard. I'm going year-by-year down, so this will seem like a strange order.

• Yoan Moncada - Below expectations, but an above average major leaguer when healthy
• Lucas Giolito - Good
• Michael Kopech - Failure
• Reynaldo Lopez - Failure. EDIT: As a starter
• Carson Fulmer - Failure
• Zack Collins - Failure
• Zack Burdi - Failure
• Luis Basabe - Failure
• Alec Hansen - Disastrous failure
• Dane Dunning - Good
• Spencer Adams - Failure
• Micker Adolfo - Failure
• Eloy Jimenez - Failure
• Luis Robert - Good
• Dylan Cease - Good
• Blake Rutherford - Failure
• Jake Burger - Good
• Ian Clarkin - Failure
• Luis Gonzalez - Failure
• Nick Madrigal - Failure
• Bryce Bush - Failure
• DJ Gladney - Failure
• Jonathan Stiever - Failure
• Matthew Thompson - Failure
• Andrew Dalquist - Failure
• Jimmy Lambert - Failure
• James Beard - Failure
• Benyamin Bailey - Failure
• James Beard - Failure
• Codi Heuer - Good
• Jared Kelly - TBD, but so far, failure
• Yoelqui Cespedes - Failure
• Norge Vera - TBD, but so far, failure
• Seby Zavala - Good for what he was
• Gavin Sheets - For what he is, good
• Andrew Vaughn - 50/50, not looking good
• Bryan Ramos - Looking positive
• Lenyn Sosa - I like him, but others don't
• Oscar Colas - Pedro hates him
• Carlos Perez - Failure at this point due to defense
• Jose Rodriguez - TBD, but if he were further along he'd be knocking on the 2B door
• Colson Montgomery - May be the crown jewel
• Wes Kath - Failure
• Romy Gonzalez - Good
• Sean Burke - TBD, not looking good

At this point, it's not worth highlighting anymore because they're all TBDs.

Obviously no one would have a 100% hit rate, but unless the prospect had otherwordly talent (Robert, Moncada, Cease, etc.) or drive (Burger), Getz did damn near nothing with them.

[WhiteSox2023]

45 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Flexen had an ERA over 6 last year, Soroka's success was prior to 2 achilles surgeries, and Fedde was in a different country last year.

There's potential here, but the last MLB season for each of those three guys together adds up to -2.1 rWAR. It could absolutely wind up better than this, but it could wind up the worst rotation we've ever seen.

That’s called a track record of success in the MLB, didn’t you know?  ?

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

There's some truth to this but Kopech, Eloy, Moncada, Lopez weren't guys who spent time in the minors and were "developed."  I assume you meant Fullmer instead of Fuller.  He was in majors in 2016.  

Guys like Rutherford, Collins etc. also could have just sucked.  

Also, who knows what authority he had... I don't blame Chris Getz because Ryan Cordell was bad.  Maybe I'm wrong. 

Fulmer was still on the MLB.com top 100 list in early 2017, I checked. He was brought up by Rick Hahn in 2016 from AA because Hahn needed someone to save his bullpen.

Moncada spent most of a year in AAA. He was called up because Frazier was traded, and showed by 2018 that this was an aggressive promotion since he hadn't figured out how to handle the strike zone. 

Lopez spent several years in the White Sox's minors and couldn't figure out how to have success until he was moved to the bullpen.

Eloy spent so long in the White Sox minor league system that he wrote an article saying "I'm Ready" for the Players Tribune. 

Kopech spent 1.5 seasons in the White Sox minor leagues prior to his callup. 

The White Sox absolutely had plenty of time to put these guys in position for success. It's not all Getz, Hahn absolutely screwed with these guys, but this is a bloody ton of talent - to get so little long term success out of them is an indictment of the entire development system.

[WestEddy]

8 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

So once again, you provide no data to prove your terribly weak point and resort to your same shtick of asking why people are a fan of this team and name-calling how someone must be horrible at a party.  Did you miss debate class in high school?  Your arguments are pathetic.

You stated that our 2024 rotation does indeed have a track record of success. Show it to me. 

I did provide a salient argument. Players having had success at the major league level have a chance to repeat or exceed that success, either by making adjustments, coming back from injury, etc. You haven't proven me wrong, you just choose to whine about very apt metaphors and to engage in pointless name-calling. Not unexpected. 

You haven't addressed my argument, so until you do, I'll just assume you can't. 

[TaylorStSox]

Blaming the Sox for Reylo, Madrigal, Eloy etc never developing is just a super trash post. Maybe I'm misunderstanding because it makes zero sense. 

[Nardiwashere]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Fulmer was still on the MLB.com top 100 list in early 2017, I checked. He was brought up by Rick Hahn in 2016 from AA because Hahn needed someone to save his bullpen.

Moncada spent most of a year in AAA. He was called up because Frazier was traded, and showed by 2018 that this was an aggressive promotion since he hadn't figured out how to handle the strike zone. 

Lopez spent several years in the White Sox's minors and couldn't figure out how to have success until he was moved to the bullpen.

Eloy spent so long in the White Sox minor league system that he wrote an article saying "I'm Ready" for the Players Tribune. 

Kopech spent 1.5 seasons in the White Sox minor leagues prior to his callup. 

The White Sox absolutely had plenty of time to put these guys in position for success. It's not all Getz, Hahn absolutely screwed with these guys, but this is a bloody ton of talent - to get so little long term success out of them is an indictment of the entire development system.

Who cares if Fulmer was on the top 100 list in the same calendar year that Getz got hired?  Getz has nothing to do with him.  

The rest of those guys on your list were in the minors partially for service time manipulation.  Like others said, they were all "developed" by other organizations.  

If they bring up Thorpe in September and he's awesome, is that attributable to Paul Janish?  

[WhiteSox2023]

6 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I did provide a salient argument. Players having had success at the major league level have a chance to repeat or exceed that success, either by making adjustments, coming back from injury, etc. You haven't proven me wrong, you just choose to whine about very apt metaphors and to engage in pointless name-calling. Not unexpected. 

You haven't addressed my argument, so until you do, I'll just assume you can't. 

Sure they have.  I never argued that it isn’t possible.  But we sure haven’t seen this from Flexen, Soroka, and Fedde in the MLB.  So there is no data supporting what you are saying, specific to the three pitchers that you cited.  You are speaking in hypotheticals and these three starters have done nothing to support your argument.  They do not have any recent track record of success like you stated.

Edited March 14 by WhiteSox2023

[TaylorStSox]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Fulmer was still on the MLB.com top 100 list in early 2017, I checked. He was brought up by Rick Hahn in 2016 from AA because Hahn needed someone to save his bullpen.

Moncada spent most of a year in AAA. He was called up because Frazier was traded, and showed by 2018 that this was an aggressive promotion since he hadn't figured out how to handle the strike zone. 

Lopez spent several years in the White Sox's minors and couldn't figure out how to have success until he was moved to the bullpen.

Eloy spent so long in the White Sox minor league system that he wrote an article saying "I'm Ready" for the Players Tribune. 

Kopech spent 1.5 seasons in the White Sox minor leagues prior to his callup. 

The White Sox absolutely had plenty of time to put these guys in position for success. It's not all Getz, Hahn absolutely screwed with these guys, but this is a bloody ton of talent - to get so little long term success out of them is an indictment of the entire development system.

AAA isn't for "developing" players. It's a placeholder league where players are getting reps in and refining their game. The Sox had nothing to do with Yoan Moncada's development.

[Balta1701]

Just now, Nardiwashere said:

Who cares if Fulmer was on the top 100 list in the same calendar year that Getz got hired?  Getz has nothing to do with him.  

The rest of those guys on your list were in the minors partially for service time manipulation.  Like others said, they were all "developed" by other organizations.  

If they bring up Thorpe in September and he's awesome, is that attributable to Paul Janish?  

If they bring up Thorpe in September and he's awesome, people will absolutely be giving Bannister credit for this. Same thing with basically any pitcher currently in the system. 

[fathom]

4 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Blaming the Sox for Reylo, Madrigal, Eloy etc never developing is just a super trash post. Maybe I'm misunderstanding because it makes zero sense. 

For someone like Lopez, don’t they get some blame for not being able to work with him on maintaining velocity when starting, as well as the shape of his slider?  If you watch the highlights of his time with Nationals, he looked like a different guy.

[Nardiwashere]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

If they bring up Thorpe in September and he's awesome, people will absolutely be giving Bannister credit for this. Same thing with basically any pitcher currently in the system. 

That's not the same.  Bannister doesn't have the same job as Getz had.  If they bring him up and he's good, no one will say "Boy, that Paul Janish really knows how to develop players"

[WhiteSox2023]

9 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Blaming the Sox for Reylo, Madrigal, Eloy etc never developing is just a super trash post. Maybe I'm misunderstanding because it makes zero sense. 

Reylo DID develop here.  Madrigal is what he is but he actually hit well here, better here than with the Cubs.  Eloy is always injured so we have never found out if he has a 40 HR season in him.

Edited March 14 by WhiteSox2023

[TaylorStSox]

Just now, fathom said:

For someone like Lopez, don’t they get some blame for not being able to work with him on maintaining velocity when starting, as well as the shape of his slider?  If you watch the highlights of his time with Nationals, he looked like a different guy.

Reylo is a damn good pitcher. Nobody needs to be blamed for him for anything. He made it.

[fathom]

Their pro coaching deserves a lot of criticism as well.  I still want to know what they were doing with Kopech’s slider last year.

[Snowy Demon]

3 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

He hasn’t gotten highly compensated yet, he was just moved.  The compensation part comes next offseason and will most likely be a longer period of uncertainty due to his agent 

$7 million is rather highly compensated.  He will be insanely compensated soon.

[Quin]

10 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Blaming the Sox for Reylo, Madrigal, Eloy etc never developing is just a super trash post. Maybe I'm misunderstanding because it makes zero sense. 

Who the f*** else was coaching them?

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

That's not the same.  Bannister doesn't have the same job as Getz had.  If they bring him up and he's good, no one will say "Boy, that Paul Janish really knows how to develop players"

Who was in charge of pitching development for the last 7 years? It seems like they've divided up the job differently now so that means blame will get shifted differently, but there is plenty of blame to go around. Had the White Sox regularly been churning out positive contributors for the last 7 years they wouldn't be in the mess they're in now. Or hell, practically any contributors at this point.

[Quin]

3 minutes ago, fathom said:

Their pro coaching deserves a lot of criticism as well.  I still want to know what they were doing with Kopech’s slider last year.

Yeah, while all of the guys I listed wore Sox minor league jerseys, they carried problems (or regressed) in White Sox jerseys.

[TaylorStSox]

1 minute ago, Quin said:

Who the f*** else was coaching them?

Reylo and Eloy were developed in different systems. Reylo is really good, so his inclusion is a head scratcher. Madrigal spent a year in the system, came up, hit well over .300 for an extended stretch and was traded. 

[Tnetennba]

Thanks. I hate it here.

[bmags]

24 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Fulmer was still on the MLB.com top 100 list in early 2017, I checked. He was brought up by Rick Hahn in 2016 from AA because Hahn needed someone to save his bullpen.

Moncada spent most of a year in AAA. He was called up because Frazier was traded, and showed by 2018 that this was an aggressive promotion since he hadn't figured out how to handle the strike zone. 

Lopez spent several years in the White Sox's minors and couldn't figure out how to have success until he was moved to the bullpen.

Eloy spent so long in the White Sox minor league system that he wrote an article saying "I'm Ready" for the Players Tribune. 

Kopech spent 1.5 seasons in the White Sox minor leagues prior to his callup. 

The White Sox absolutely had plenty of time to put these guys in position for success. It's not all Getz, Hahn absolutely screwed with these guys, but this is a bloody ton of talent - to get so little long term success out of them is an indictment of the entire development system.

There is this back and forth of this board where player development is super important, but when it's drilled down on people ultimately just believe it's scouting and pd isn't that important.

But I have a hard time believing it was only scouting when it was just incredibly noticeable how nearly every pitcher had command problems, stuff or not. Nearly every hitter swung at everything, power or not. And nearly every position player was woeful at defense, athletic or not. The only ones who broke that had super human abilities like Robert, and moncada's athleticism at third.

I'm sure the Cardinals are better at scouting for defense. I'm sure the guardians are better at drafting for command. Scouting is a big piece of ball players. But PD at the aggregate level should be getting more guys that are AAAA players to be reserves, getting a few more guys that would be reserves/backend guys to borderline starters. After that it's talent. But Lenyn sosa never has a chance to develop his bat when he's also s%*# at defense.