Cease To Padres per Passan

[TaylorStSox]

7 minutes ago, Quin said:

Yeah, while all of the guys I listed wore Sox minor league jerseys, they carried problems (or regressed) in White Sox jerseys.

"Wearing a minor league jersey" for a short time in advanced leagues doesn't mean you developed them. 

[WestEddy]

6 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Sure they have.  I never argued that it isn’t possible.  But we sure haven’t seen this from Flexen, Soroka, and Fedde in the MLB.  So there is no data supporting what you are saying, specific to the three pitchers that you cited.  You are speaking in hypotheticals and these three starters have done nothing to support your argument.  They do not have any recent track record of success like you stated.

What are you even talking about? Yes, Soroka had a very good season before his injury. So good that he finished 2nd in ROY voting. He put up 4.6 bWAR, so yes, you have seen that from him. Chris Flexen went to Korea, reinvented himself, then came back to put up 3.4 bWAR for Seattle in 2021. Maybe you just started following the baseball this year, so I apologize if you weren't aware of these two players' previous success. Data. 

The level of KBO baseball would slot in somewhere between AA and AAA. Fedde just won the equivalent of their MVP and Cy Young awards. No, that's nothing like the 1.5 bWAR he put up for the Nationals in 2020 shortened season, but it is success on the level of a guy blowing away AA and AAA hitters. 

You're using absolutes, like "haven't seen", "have done nothing", and "do not have any recent track record". So I can only surmise that, yes, you are arguing that it isn't possible that any of these three pitchers will ever find MLB success. You have proclaimed at numerous times they will be bad. Not "have the possibility of being bad", but that they will be bad. Historically bad. 

Again, you haven't addressed my argument except to incorrectly state that none of these three pitchers have had any recent MLB success, which is untrue. I understand your need to pretend that none of them have ever thrown a strike, or enjoyed a good outing in their lives. It would make your feeble argument unravel. Well, it would be like a mish mash of yarn that was never raveled in the first place. 

So, my assertion still stands as factually correct. Pitchers who have had recent success in MLB can come back from injury, or make adjustments to find success again. Flexen, Soroka and Fedde certainly fall into this category. 

I accept your apology. 

[Quin]

2 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Reylo and Eloy were developed in different systems. Reylo is really good, so his inclusion is a head scratcher. Madrigal spent a year in the system, came up, hit well over .300 for an extended stretch and was traded. 

And yet, ReyLo spent 121 innings in Charlotte. And is very much a failed starter.

Madrigal spent 1.5 years in the system and while he hit, his defense and durability began to get called into question - which were exactly what plagued him in the majors.

As others mentioned, Eloy literally wrote an article about being ready to debut and was in the system for a year +. 

This is just absolving them of responsibility.

Omar Narvaez and Marcus Semien were in the majors and became competent-to-good defenders after leaving the Sox after having iron gloves here.

[chitownsportsfan]

25 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Blaming the Sox for Reylo, Madrigal, Eloy etc never developing is just a super trash post. Maybe I'm misunderstanding because it makes zero sense. 

In aggregate the list @Quinposted is not however. It happened so much with so many types of prospects that there's something going wrong.

[TaylorStSox]

1 minute ago, Quin said:

And yet, ReyLo spent 121 innings in Charlotte. And is very much a failed starter.

Madrigal spent 1.5 years in the system and while he hit, his defense and durability began to get called into question - which were exactly what plagued him in the majors.

As others mentioned, Eloy literally wrote an article about being ready to debut and was in the system for a year +. 

This is just absolving them of responsibility.

Omar Narvaez and Marcus Semien were in the majors and became competent-to-good defenders after leaving the Sox after having iron gloves here.

The Sox are a trash organization top to bottom, but you gave absolutely terrible examples of why. 

[TaylorStSox]

5 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

In aggregate the list @Quinposted is not however. It happened so much with so many types of prospects that there's something going wrong.

There's definitely something. It was just a nonsensical list with bad reasoning. 

[Quin]

2 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

There's definitely something. It was just a nonsensical list with bad reasoning. 

And that's why the Sox are flush with talent and churn out great players like the Dodgers, Astros and Rays!

[Quin]

8 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

The Sox are a trash organization top to bottom, but you gave absolutely terrible examples of why. 

Ok, how long does a player need to be in the Sox organization for them to coach them?

[Nardiwashere]

16 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Thanks. I hate it here.

I like this. The goal of this season should be to find a few players that will be on the next good team. 

If we go into next year with  2-3 SPs and 4-5 spots in the lineup figured out plus a handful of bullpen arms we like, that's good news, right?

[Dick Allen]

3 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

I like this. The goal of this season should be to find a few players that will be on the next good team. 

If we go into next year with  2-3 SPs and 4-5 spots in the lineup figured out plus a handful of bullpen arms we like, that's good news, right?

Have they been born yet?

[Illinibat]

Feels like the Sox got WAY more in return for Quintana trade than they did for Cease trade.

Maybe I overrated Cease value but I thought it would be similar ... ?

[Bob Sacamano]

Just now, Illinibat said:

Feels like the Sox got WAY more in return for Quintana trade than they did for Cease trade.

Maybe I overrated Cease value but I thought it would be similar ... ?

Quintana had 3.5 years of control when dealt.

[Jake]

I find it helpful to think of Jerry not as some simply evil guy who is only motivated by money, but a guy who does want to win yet strongly holds a number of wrong views about how to do it. This is why for most criticisms of his apparent philosophies with spending (we never spend on development, we never sign high-profile free agents, etc.) have clear counterexamples from his time in ownership (was a big investor in minor league coaches relative to other owners when he took over, gave Joe Borchard a record contract, gave Albert Belle a record contract). He tries stuff, thinks he learns a lesson from it, and changes his strategy. Does it always work? No, in fact it usually doesn't. Does he care about money? Yeah, he seems to, but I do find it silly to act like the Sox are some outlier penny-pinching organization given the existing data on payrolls that we can all see.

[fathom]

4 minutes ago, Jake said:

I find it helpful to think of Jerry not as some simply evil guy who is only motivated by money, but a guy who does want to win yet strongly holds a number of wrong views about how to do it. This is why for most criticisms of his apparent philosophies with spending (we never spend on development, we never sign high-profile free agents, etc.) have clear counterexamples from his time in ownership (was a big investor in minor league coaches relative to other owners when he took over, gave Joe Borchard a record contract, gave Albert Belle a record contract). He tries stuff, thinks he learns a lesson from it, and changes his strategy. Does it always work? No, in fact it usually doesn't. Does he care about money? Yeah, he seems to, but I do find it silly to act like the Sox are some outlier penny-pinching organization given the existing data on payrolls that we can all see.

What he won’t do is spend a lot if attendance blows, and it will be beyond awful the next few years 

[Jake]

Just now, fathom said:

What he won’t do is spend a lot if attendance blows, and it will be beyond awful the next few years 

That may be true although I think he has some understanding of the idea that fans decide to attend based on the quality of the team. But that's all consistent with his general claim that he reinvests the team's revenue into the organization (whether we believe that is literally true or not). The best thing he could do, much more important than his willingness to spend, is hire good baseball people to run the team. He has hired some different people for sure but I (and most of you) are not super confident that they are any good.

[Greg Hibbard]

1 hour ago, Quin said:

Let me brush off my We Didn't Start The Fire keyboard. I'm going year-by-year down, so this will seem like a strange order.

• Yoan Moncada - Below expectations, but an above average major leaguer when healthy
• Lucas Giolito - Good
• Michael Kopech - Failure
• Reynaldo Lopez - Failure
• Carson Fulmer - Failure
• Zack Collins - Failure
• Zack Burdi - Failure
• Luis Basabe - Failure
• Alec Hansen - Disastrous failure
• Dane Dunning - Good
• Spencer Adams - Failure
• Micker Adolfo - Failure
• Eloy Jimenez - Failure
• Luis Robert - Good
• Dylan Cease - Good
• Blake Rutherford - Failure
• Jake Burger - Good
• Ian Clarkin - Failure
• Luis Gonzalez - Failure
• Nick Madrigal - Failure
• Bryce Bush - Failure
• DJ Gladney - Failure
• Jonathan Stiever - Failure
• Matthew Thompson - Failure
• Andrew Dalquist - Failure
• Jimmy Lambert - Failure
• James Beard - Failure
• Benyamin Bailey - Failure
• James Beard - Failure
• Codi Heuer - Good
• Jared Kelly - TBD, but so far, failure
• Yoelqui Cespedes - Failure
• Norge Vera - TBD, but so far, failure
• Seby Zavala - Good for what he was
• Gavin Sheets - For what he is, good
• Andrew Vaughn - 50/50, not looking good
• Bryan Ramos - Looking positive
• Lenyn Sosa - I like him, but others don't
• Oscar Colas - Pedro hates him
• Carlos Perez - Failure at this point due to defense
• Jose Rodriguez - TBD, but if he were further along he'd be knocking on the 2B door
• Colson Montgomery - May be the crown jewel
• Wes Kath - Failure
• Romy Gonzalez - Good
• Sean Burke - TBD, not looking good

At this point, it's not worth highlighting anymore because they're all TBDs.

Obviously no one would have a 100% hit rate, but unless the prospect had otherwordly talent (Robert, Moncada, Cease, etc.) or drive (Burger), Getz did damn near nothing with them.

I agree with a lot of what you say, but I don’t know that Reynaldo Lopez is a failure in the same sense that some of these others are. He contributed quite a bit especially in the last couple years. 

[Harry Chappas]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

That's the thing I never got.  If you want to be cheap, invest in things that give the most bang for your buck.  For the cost of a crappy end of the pen reliever, the Sox could build one of the best farm departments in baseball between scouting and development.  But we go cheap there.  Sign one less crappy utility guy a year and put that money into the system.

The philosophy of this organization to me stems from Kenny Williams thinking as much as JR.  He was just better at getting the Ellis Burks of the world then Hahn.

[Quin]

2 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

I agree with a lot of what you say, but I don’t know that Reynaldo Lopez is a failure in the same sense that some of these others are. He contributed quite a bit especially in the last couple years. 

Dear lord, now I finally realize I meant to put a note like Moncada.

ReyLo was only a failure as a starter. Not a reliever. And for anyone acting like he was always destined for being a reliever, we were all dreaming of the Giolito-Kopech-Lopez-Cease-Dunning rotation once upon a time.

[southsider2k5]

14 minutes ago, Jake said:

I find it helpful to think of Jerry not as some simply evil guy who is only motivated by money, but a guy who does want to win yet strongly holds a number of wrong views about how to do it. This is why for most criticisms of his apparent philosophies with spending (we never spend on development, we never sign high-profile free agents, etc.) have clear counterexamples from his time in ownership (was a big investor in minor league coaches relative to other owners when he took over, gave Joe Borchard a record contract, gave Albert Belle a record contract). He tries stuff, thinks he learns a lesson from it, and changes his strategy. Does it always work? No, in fact it usually doesn't. Does he care about money? Yeah, he seems to, but I do find it silly to act like the Sox are some outlier penny-pinching organization given the existing data on payrolls that we can all see.

His spending follows attendance and not vice versa.  They will spend again when people show up again.  It's the way it has been for 40 years.  We might not like the spending, but they typically do.  We have seen an attendance spiral and so now payroll is following.

[Greg Hibbard]

It seems to me that the jury will be out on the return of this trade for at least two years. 

what kind of production do we need to see from these four players for this trade to be viewed as an overall success?

 

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

It seems to me that the jury will be out on the return of this trade for at least two years. 

what kind of production do we need to see from these four players for this trade to be viewed as an overall success?

 

You're looking at lots of guys who are pretty far out in the future, which means that the White Sox have absorbed lots of risk in terms of development and injury coming back for a guy who has been an elite starter for at least a period in his career.

Let's say either one guy who is really really good, like all-star level good at their position + a minor contributor (backup or a reliever), or two guys who are at least quality starting players for the team, around 27-28.

[Greg Hibbard]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You're looking at lots of guys who are pretty far out in the future, which means that the White Sox have absorbed lots of risk in terms of development and injury coming back for a guy who has been an elite starter for at least a period in his career.

Let's say either one guy who is really really good, like all-star level good at their position + a minor contributor (backup or a reliever), or two guys who are at least quality starting players for the team, around 27-28.

so something like 15 rWAR total for these four players combined?

[Kyyle23]

1 hour ago, Snowy Demon said:

$7 million is rather highly compensated.  He will be insanely compensated soon.

Umm ok

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Greg Hibbard said:

so something like 15 rWAR total for these four players combined?

Cease is probably going to put up ~7 over the next 2 years right? With a ceiling higher than that? Getting 15 out of these guys when we have added 22 years of control total seems a little low. If one guy is an all star caliber player then he's putting up 4-5 WAR in a year, if two guys are average starters they're putting up 2.5-3 rWAR per year.

Are you just counting "Excess WAR" beyond what is paid for? If I'm counting total over their entire time with the White Sox I'd have to hope we could pull off 20+.

[Greg Hibbard]

16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Cease is probably going to put up ~7 over the next 2 years right? With a ceiling higher than that? Getting 15 out of these guys when we have added 22 years of control total seems a little low. If one guy is an all star caliber player then he's putting up 4-5 WAR in a year, if two guys are average starters they're putting up 2.5-3 rWAR per year.

Are you just counting "Excess WAR" beyond what is paid for? If I'm counting total over their entire time with the White Sox I'd have to hope we could pull off 20+.

I understand your point about control, but 20 seems like it would be a outsized haul. Consider that Cease and Jimenez haven't even put up 20 combined yet, and I think most consider that an A+ haul for the White Sox side of the Quintana deal, which offered more control to the Cubs.