Cease To Padres per Passan

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

16 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

I understand your point about control, but 20 seems like it would be an outsized haul. Consider that Cease and Jimenez haven't even put up 20 combined yet, and I think most consider that an A+ haul for the White Sox side of the Quintana deal, which offered more control to the Cubs.   

Sad but true. If this group of players puts up 15 it’s a big win for the Sox especially given their current state of non-contention where Cease would have been wasted,

[Balta1701]

25 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

I understand your point about control, but 20 seems like it would be a outsized haul. Consider that Cease and Jimenez haven't even put up 20 combined yet, and I think most consider that an A+ haul for the White Sox side of the Quintana deal, which offered more control to the Cubs.   

I mean, did we get what we wanted out of the Quintana deal even remotely? A couple decent years of Cease and basically a bust in Eloy? But, even with that, had they not traded Cease don't they likely end up with 20+, and that's with 1 guy about to have his options turned down at the end of the year.

[Greg Hibbard]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I mean, did we get what we wanted out of the Quintana deal even remotely? A couple decent years of Cease and basically a bust in Eloy? But, even with that, had they not traded Cease don't they likely end up with 20+, and that's with 1 guy about to have his options turned down at the end of the year.

Remotely seems like an exaggeration.

I would argue that there's no way to evaluate that trade for the White Sox as anything except an A. 

With respect to Jimenez, how can a 2 WAR a year MLB player with 33 homers per 162 be a "bust"? I feel like there's this tendency here to either view players as overwhelming successes or failures.  Jimenez is a very solid offensive player when healthy, and not a "bust". He's a starting caliber MLB player. There's also still a chance he becomes a 40 home run / year slugger. We don't need him to play defense, even if he disagrees. 

If I recall correctly, nobody really projected Cease to be anywhere near as dominant as he became when he was traded to the White Sox. He far exceeded my expectations with his 2022 performance, and we just flipped him for four other prospects coming off of a very disappointing year.  

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

10 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Remotely seems like an exaggeration.

I would argue that there's no way to evaluate that trade for the White Sox as anything except an A. 

With respect to Jimenez, how can a 2 WAR a year MLB player with 33 homers per 162 be a "bust"? I feel like there's this tendency here to either view players as overwhelming successes or failures.  Jimenez is a very solid offensive player when healthy, and not a "bust". He's a starting caliber MLB player. There's also still a chance he becomes a 40 home run / year slugger. We don't need him to play defense, even if he disagrees. 

If I recall correctly, nobody really projected Cease to be anywhere near as dominant as he became when he was traded to the White Sox. He far exceeded my expectations with his 2022 performance, and we just flipped him for four other prospects coming off of a very disappointing year.  

If he thinks it was a bad trade for the Sox, how would he grade the trade for the cubs?!? Yikes, Q was a bust there outside of a pretty good 2019 season. Certainly much worse than the collective Cease/Jimenez combination.

[Eminor3rd]

4 hours ago, hi8is said:

Elaborate please.

One article said that he was moved to relief more because they needed bullpen arms than because he couldn’t start, and another said that he’s missed a lot of development time to injuries and pandemic, so he may have more command upside than his age would indicate 

[Ducksnort]

22 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Remotely seems like an exaggeration.

I would argue that there's no way to evaluate that trade for the White Sox as anything except an A. 

With respect to Jimenez, how can a 2 WAR a year MLB player with 33 homers per 162 be a "bust"? I feel like there's this tendency here to either view players as overwhelming successes or failures.  Jimenez is a very solid offensive player when healthy, and not a "bust". He's a starting caliber MLB player. There's also still a chance he becomes a 40 home run / year slugger. We don't need him to play defense, even if he disagrees. 

If I recall correctly, nobody really projected Cease to be anywhere near as dominant as he became when he was traded to the White Sox. He far exceeded my expectations with his 2022 performance, and we just flipped him for four other prospects coming off of a very disappointing year.  

Very easy to correlate individual player performances to the overall performance of the team. Especially when you expected years dominance and got the exact opposite.

[Eminor3rd]

3 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

Blaming the Sox for Reylo, Madrigal, Eloy etc never developing is just a super trash post. Maybe I'm misunderstanding because it makes zero sense. 

I can’t tell if you’re joking. Do you really believe player development ends in the lower minors?

Even if you did, which is insane, what about the hundred or so players the Sox drafted into the system since 2017?

[chitownsportsfan]

45 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Remotely seems like an exaggeration.

I would argue that there's no way to evaluate that trade for the White Sox as anything except an A. 

With respect to Jimenez, how can a 2 WAR a year MLB player with 33 homers per 162 be a "bust"? I feel like there's this tendency here to either view players as overwhelming successes or failures.  Jimenez is a very solid offensive player when healthy, and not a "bust". He's a starting caliber MLB player. There's also still a chance he becomes a 40 home run / year slugger. We don't need him to play defense, even if he disagrees. 

If I recall correctly, nobody really projected Cease to be anywhere near as dominant as he became when he was traded to the White Sox. He far exceeded my expectations with his 2022 performance, and we just flipped him for four other prospects coming off of a very disappointing year.  

Eloy is only a 2 WAR player if he plays 200 games a year. He’s closer to 1 at the moment. He’s a bust imo. Sox failed to develop him at all with a position defensively.

[Balta1701]

35 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

If he thinks it was a bad trade for the Sox, how would he grade the trade for the cubs?!? Yikes, Q was a bust there outside of a pretty good 2019 season. Certainly much worse than the collective Cease/Jimenez combination.

The Cubs also got 7.4 fWAR out of him. His baseball-reference numbers were worse than this, but giving up more long-term as a premium for getting better right now when your team just won a World Series is sorta the expectation in those deals. 

[WestEddy]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The Cubs also got 7.4 fWAR out of him. His baseball-reference numbers were worse than this, but giving up more long-term as a premium for getting better right now when your team just won a World Series is sorta the expectation in those deals. 

Why are you using fWAR? I thought you said repeatedly that it heavily weights FIP. 

[Milkman delivers]

So a 4-month-old thread with close to 400 pages of discussion and anticipation ends with an underwhelming, if not so-so, trade. Ah, is there anything more appropriate for the Sox?

Edited March 14 by Milkman delivers

[baseball_gal_aly]

I wish I could go back and capture the 2019 season again where we thought that Moncada, Eloy and Giolito finally broke out and Cease and Robert were still to come. 

It's crazy how things went sideways after that. 

[greg775]

5 hours ago, LittleHurtCG said:

Who is the openind day starter this year? Erik Fedde? A dude who pitched in Korea last year? Very impressive. 

 

It's scary. What's the modern MLB record for fewest wins in a season? Sox have been bad in the past, but this team truly is the worst in all of our lives (non hyperbole).

[Greg Hibbard]

34 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Eloy is only a 2 WAR player if he plays 200 games a year. He’s closer to 1 at the moment. He’s a bust imo. Sox failed to develop him at all with a position defensively.

I don't want Eloy Jimenez anywhere near a field and haven't for three years.

I want him DHing 140 games and hitting home runs.  

[KipWellsFan]

9 minutes ago, greg775 said:

It's scary. What's the modern MLB record for fewest wins in a season? Sox have been bad in the past, but this team truly is the worst in all of our lives (non hyperbole).

Essentially the Sox have to win 40 games and they won't be the worst in the modern era. We're going to win a lot more than 40 games.

[KipWellsFan]

4 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

I don't want Eloy Jimenez anywhere near a field and haven't for three years.

I want him DHing 140 games and hitting home runs.  

I think Eloy is close to replacement level when he plays DH. So, I have a hard time caring...
 

[fathom]

42 minutes ago, Milkman delivers said:

So a 4-month-old thread with close to 400 pages of discussion and anticipation ends with an underwhelming, if not so-so, trade. Ah, is there anything more appropriate for the Sox?

Remind you of another thread?

[Chisoxfn]

3 hours ago, Tnetennba said:

Thanks. I hate it here.

I don't know why - no reason they couldn't get a chance post trade deadline to start to get experience. In particular Thorpe. I would think if Thorpe isn't up here at some point this season, something would have went wrong, given he finished the year in AA. I would suspect plan is for him to get 10-15 starts in AA before moving him up to AAA.  

One thing I will say about this trade - I put it as a C+ return, but I do think Getz is different than Hanh. I don't believe Hanh really trusted his scouts and development teams much on trades. I think he relied more on the perceived value of the trade and thus thought and cared more about how media would perceive a move. 

I think Getz targets guys he likes (regardless of rankings) and views them more isolated with his scouts. I happen to believe that is a positive - whether Getz and the crew are good at their jobs, that remains to be seen and I understand why any of us would be skeptical given how bad of a job the Sox have done consistently in that manner during the Rick Hanh era.

It's hard to remember - there was a time where I actually would have said the Sox aren't half bad at that - but that goes back to when Kenny was flipping tables and super hands on.  

[greg775]

15 minutes ago, KipWellsFan said:

Essentially the Sox have to win 40 games and they won't be the worst in the modern era. We're going to win a lot more than 40 games.

What do you mean by a lot? Starting pitching will alone cost the team a lot of games. I guarantee you if somebody keeps track of this, it will be the lowest amount of starts going past 4 innings in Sox history. Turning it over to the bullpen will cost the team games. Then you can't deny the 7-9 spots in the lineup are among the worst in Sox history. If and I say IF the Sox continue to have injury problems, wow, the depth is not there either.

My point is even on a night the Sox play well, there are numerous factors that can cost them games. I guess the Sox could dominate the other lousy teams in baseball. Yes that is possible. But I say under 50 wins is assured because of lousiness pretty much in all areas except defense where the team is good maybe.

[flavum]

Sox win total will be in the 60’s. They’re bad, but they aren’t going to ge historically bad. There was no effort last year. The effort level, even with this team, should get them to 64 wins. 

[Milkman delivers]

39 minutes ago, greg775 said:

It's scary. What's the modern MLB record for fewest wins in a season? Sox have been bad in the past, but this team truly is the worst in all of our lives (non hyperbole).

 

30 minutes ago, KipWellsFan said:

Essentially the Sox have to win 40 games and they won't be the worst in the modern era. We're going to win a lot more than 40 games.

I’m not sure they’ll crack 60 wins though.

22 minutes ago, fathom said:

Remind you of another thread?

I’m actually not sure what you’re referring to ?

Which?

[fathom]

4 minutes ago, Milkman delivers said:

 

I’m not sure they’ll crack 60 wins though.

I’m actually not sure what you’re referring to ?

Which?

The Manny thread where it ends with a Passan tweet about the Padres

[Quin]

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

I can’t tell if you’re joking. Do you really believe player development ends in the lower minors?

Even if you did, which is insane, what about the hundred or so players the Sox drafted into the system since 2017?

Nick Madrigal doesn't count because he hit .300 with the Sox

[Milkman delivers]

2 minutes ago, fathom said:

The Manny thread where it ends with a Passan tweet about the Padres

Oh, I don’t think I was around then. But I can see the similarities without having ever read it haha.

[TaylorStSox]

2 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

I can’t tell if you’re joking. Do you really believe player development ends in the lower minors?

Even if you did, which is insane, what about the hundred or so players the Sox drafted into the system since 2017?

Absolutely, AAA is for refinement, not development. They're very different things. To say the Sox "developed" a lot of those players on that list is just absurd.