Cease To Padres per Passan

[Ducksnort]

Do you think Jerry likes it when his players do well? Or does he just see dollar signs flying out the window.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, T R U said:

Good luck winning an arbitration case against him if he goes on to pitch 150 innings and is one of the top 3 pitchers in the league.

Also, why on earth would he sign a 5 year extension worth $15 million per year when he could be looking at $30 million per year in 2 seasons?

Do you think he’ll see more than $15M over the next two seasons via arbitration? For reference, Cease is at $8M this year and Glasnow was at $5M in arb 3.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Garrett won’t get much via arbitration the next two seasons because he’s starting from such a low base so if you offered to buy out his next two seasons of arbitration and then extend him another three seasons beyond that, you’re probably looking at 5 years / $75M range (Benintendi contract). If a team is unloading two borderline T100 mlb prospects for him, I think they will be very motivated to extend him along these lines.

That's somewhere around 20m per year for his 3 year FA years. There is no way that happens. 

[Lip Man 1]

29 minutes ago, ScootsMcGoots said:

Do you think Jerry likes it when his players do well? Or does he just see dollar signs flying out the window.

After the Sox won in 1983, JR was quoted after that, sometime in 1984 as I recall, saying along the lines of, 'I didn't know winning would cost so much...' (Because players wanted raises et al)

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

9 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

That's somewhere around 20m per year for his 3 year FA years. There is no way that happens. 

Glasnow got $27.5M per. You don’t think Glasnow had a better track record when he signed that contract than Crochet does today?

[T R U]

31 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Do you think he’ll see more than $15M over the next two seasons via arbitration? For reference, Cease is at $8M this year and Glasnow was at $5M in arb 3.

If the options are sign a 5 year $75 million extension right now, and make $30 million over the next two years but only $45 million over the following three.

OR

Go to Arbitration right now, and make approx. $20 million over the next two years but then make $200 million (and probably more) over the following 5+ years.

Im no agent, but I know what I would be campaigning for..

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, T R U said:

If the options are sign a 5 year $75 million extension right now, and make $30 million over the next two years but only $45 million over the following three.

OR

Go to Arbitration right now, and make approx. $20 million over the next two years but then make $200 million (and probably more) over the following 5+ years.

Im no agent, but I know what I would be campaigning for..

What does the second option look like if he gets seriously hurt over the next two years?

[Milkman delivers]

I fear you guys are all getting way ahead of yourselves. It hasn’t even been half a season and he’s not injured yet. That can all change in one pitch, especially with his lack of pitches/innings thrown in his career and his injury history.

It’s been a great season so far, no freaking doubt. But bumping this thread to gloat so early is just asking for it. Reminds me of Ventura’s first season as manager when the fans of the hire rubbed it in halfway through the season, and then it blew up from there.

Edited June 18 by Milkman delivers

[WestEddy]

32 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

What does the second option look like if he gets seriously hurt over the next two years?

He's got his first round money, so Crochet's still set. I could see the deal somebody suggested above, 3/50, or something, lock in the arbitration money, give a little back for the first year of FA, then walk. But that's so short, why would the Sox do it? 

And, as somebody else asked, why would the Sox encumber a trade with guaranteed money? Guys like Vaughn and Crochet are cheap and low-risk. If they s%*# the bed, non-tender them. Give the option of extending to the trading team. 

[WestEddy]

35 minutes ago, Milkman delivers said:

I fear you guys are all getting way ahead of yourselves. It hasn’t even been half a season and he’s not injured yet. That can all change in one pitch, especially with his lack of pitches/innings thrown in his career and his injury history.

It’s been a great season so far, no freaking doubt. But bumping this thread to gloat so early is just asking for it. Reminds me of Ventura’s first season as manager when the fans of the hire rubbed it in halfway through the season, and then it blew up from there.

Is somebody gloating? It was the same discussion in 2016, blowing it up vs. extending the few stars. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

10 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

He's got his first round money, so Crochet's still set. I could see the deal somebody suggested above, 3/50, or something, lock in the arbitration money, give a little back for the first year of FA, then walk. But that's so short, why would the Sox do it? 

And, as somebody else asked, why would the Sox encumber a trade with guaranteed money? Guys like Vaughn and Crochet are cheap and low-risk. If they s%*# the bed, non-tender them. Give the option of extending to the trading team. 

I don’t see it as a sign and immediate trade. If the Sox extend Crochet, I think they hold on to him for at least two more years. If they don’t extend him (far more likely), I see him getting traded and the team that trades for him working out an extension similar to what the dodgers did with Glasnow.

[Snowy Demon]

It is always difficult to project a player based on 1/2 of a season or just 1 season for that matter.  See players like Jonathan India, Jorge Lopez, Nick Senzel, Dylan Carlson, etc.

[WestEddy]

4 minutes ago, Snowy Demon said:

It is always difficult to project a player based on 1/2 of a season or just 1 season for that matter.  See players like Jonathan India, Jorge Lopez, Nick Senzel, Dylan Carlson, etc.

But this isn't a guy fresh out of college/AAA, and relatively unknown. The league has already adjusted to him, and he's adjusted back. He's had success, and is now extending that success. The only real unknowns are how he holds up for the duration of 2024, and how he snaps back in 2025. 

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, T R U said:

If the options are sign a 5 year $75 million extension right now, and make $30 million over the next two years but only $45 million over the following three.

OR

Go to Arbitration right now, and make approx. $20 million over the next two years but then make $200 million (and probably more) over the following 5+ years.

Im no agent, but I know what I would be campaigning for..

This right here.  Dude is thinking 5/150 as a free agent.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

What does the second option look like if he gets seriously hurt over the next two years?

That's why Glasnow is a great comp.  Dude barely ever throws 100 innings.

[southsider2k5]

25 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

He's got his first round money, so Crochet's still set. I could see the deal somebody suggested above, 3/50, or something, lock in the arbitration money, give a little back for the first year of FA, then walk. But that's so short, why would the Sox do it? 

And, as somebody else asked, why would the Sox encumber a trade with guaranteed money? Guys like Vaughn and Crochet are cheap and low-risk. If they s%*# the bed, non-tender them. Give the option of extending to the trading team. 

3/50 makes a lot more sense than 5/75.

[Milkman delivers]

27 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Is somebody gloating? It was the same discussion in 2016, blowing it up vs. extending the few stars. 

Perhaps not in this thread, but in the Crochet Preparing To Be Starter thread. Sorry, the threads kind of intertwine in topics being discussed.

[T R U]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

What does the second option look like if he gets seriously hurt over the next two years?

This is personal preference and im not going to speculate on it because I have no idea what hes thinking. I would assume, based on him putting his foot down and saying "I want to be a starting pitcher" he believes in himself.

Most of the time these buy out extensions are for young guys who often haven't even made any meaningful impact on the big club. This situation to me seems a little different. If the Sox in the offseason extended him 5/75 before he ever took the mound as a starter, ok maybe, but then why would the Sox do that?

Just seems a little too late at this point to get a deal done the Sox would be comfortable with.

Edited June 18 by T R U

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

19 hours ago, Snowy Demon said:

Looking more and more like 2022 was an outlier for Cease.  

It may or may not end up being so but I did mention that 2022 could be viewed as an outlier if you held onto him for 2024 and he didn't perform up to par and then you erode his value even more by keeping him for a half season and by performance. Sox were in no position to take that chance.

For all those who think Getz was screwed in that trade think about this. They did precisely what the TB Rays would have done and many of you couldn't handle it,  overvaluing Cease then pouting about a pretty good return. They got near maximum value for him in a market than doesn't like 5 innings guys coming off a mediocre year that saw a fade in the 2nd half . Sure he makes all his starts but  he's not a true stud. We have seen more than our share of guys turning into pumpkins.

Once again we are overvaluing Crochet because of basically 12 starts . Sure extend him. Let's buy high on him because he might be so good we'll never get the chance again .So go Sox . And some of you call Getz panicky for minor moves. It's downright farcical. Crochet would need 2 more miracles to ever get $150M contract and he's already been a miracle unicorn by A. Pitching as well as he has and B. Staying healthy.

If I had to choose between him him getting $150M or non tendered I'd choose non tendered. I'm basing this on 2.5 months of great healthy starting pitching vs waiting another 2.5 years of healthy great seasons before he can command $150M .Any hiccup of health or performance along the way knocks that total down significantly.

I'll take a good return for the guy rather than expecting him to perform 2 more major miracles given his health history.

This is how to get better. You take this great fortune that came out of nowhere and turn it into a big positive.

You don't keep him, you don't try to extend him and push your luck. You just trade him and let the other team figure out what to do with him .

[WestEddy]

40 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

It may or may not end up being so but I did mention that 2022 could be viewed as an outlier if you held onto him for 2024 and he didn't perform up to par and then you erode his value even more by keeping him for a half season and by performance. Sox were in no position to take that chance.

For all those who think Getz was screwed in that trade think about this. They did precisely what the TB Rays would have done and many of you couldn't handle it,  overvaluing Cease then pouting about a pretty good return. They got near maximum value for him in a market than doesn't like 5 innings guys coming off a mediocre year that saw a fade in the 2nd half . Sure he makes all his starts but  he's not a true stud. We have seen more than our share of guys turning into pumpkins.

Once again we are overvaluing Crochet because of basically 12 starts . Sure extend him. Let's buy high on him because he might be so good we'll never get the chance again .So go Sox . And some of you call Getz panicky for minor moves. It's downright farcical. Crochet would need 2 more miracles to ever get $150M contract and he's already been a miracle unicorn by A. Pitching as well as he has and B. Staying healthy.

If I had to choose between him him getting $150M or non tendered I'd choose non tendered. I'm basing this on 2.5 months of great healthy starting pitching vs waiting another 2.5 years of healthy great seasons before he can command $150M .Any hiccup of health or performance along the way knocks that total down significantly.

I'll take a good return for the guy rather than expecting him to perform 2 more major miracles given his health history.

This is how to get better. You take this great fortune that came out of nowhere and turn it into a big positive.

You don't keep him, you don't try to extend him and push your luck. You just trade him and let the other team figure out what to do with him .

I could see the Sox airing him out to 120-130 innings, albeit with some missed turns in the rotation and 3 inning outings. Then next year, he pays the piper for a half season, losing a couple clicks and just being a good pitcher. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

That's why Glasnow is a great comp.  Dude barely ever throws 100 innings.

And Glasnow had to wait until his final year of arbitration with more prior success than Crochet to see that $27.5M per number. In this case, Crochet is taking on more injury risk by waiting because he’s still 2.5 years from free agency, not one. These aren’t comparable situations. Now if the Sox were looking to extend him after next season and he finished this season strong with moderate to good success again next season I would agree with you.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

4 hours ago, Snowy Demon said:

It is always difficult to project a player based on 1/2 of a season or just 1 season for that matter.  See players like Jonathan India, Jorge Lopez, Nick Senzel, Dylan Carlson, etc.

You’re comparing position players and a reliever with career years to a starting pitcher. How many starting pitchers led the league or were close to leading the league in strikeouts in their mid 20s and then fell off the face of the earth after that? The only case I can think of happened 20+ years ago with Rick Ankiel. Outside of injury, it just doesn’t happen. You don’t luck into a 200+ strikeout season.

[southsider2k5]

13 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And Glasnow had to wait until his final year of arbitration with more prior success than Crochet to see that $27.5M per number. In this case, Crochet is taking on more injury risk by waiting because he’s still 2.5 years from free agency, not one. These aren’t comparable situations. Now if the Sox were looking to extend him after next season and he finished this season strong with moderate to good success again next season I would agree with you.

The dude is not signing away 3 free agent years for a fraction of his earning potential.   Maybe you get him to give up one year on a 3/50,  (say 5/10/25) so as to push some money forward and give the Sox a bit of a break on a free agent year, but he is not going that cheap on a mid length deal. 5/75 would look some like 5/10/20/20/20 which is absurdly low to give up three seasons where he could be looking more like 5/150 after the next two years coming at at like 3 and 10 million through arb if he wanted to wait for his powerball number.  If he actually gets through the next two season relatively healthy he might be able to push that out to six seasons in the 35 to 40 million per, range. 

He has no reason to sign a cheap and longer extention.  He sees pitchers going half seasons for a lot more money than this.  All he has to do is make it through the next two seasons as he already had his first arb year.  In your version. He gets a free agent payday in 2 of 7 years.  in his, he somewhere close to doubles he $$$ if he is healthy, even if throwing half seasons he has the Glasnow contract as a comp.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

4 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

That's why Glasnow is a great comp.  Dude barely ever throws 100 innings.

But Glasnow showed far more than 2 months of dominance.

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

But Glasnow showed far more than 2 months of dominance.

Sure, but teams will pay it because dominant left hand starting is worth it.  If he was healthy he is looking at Cole money.