Cease To Padres per Passan

[Snowy Demon]

31 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

You’re comparing position players and a reliever with career years to a starting pitcher. How many starting pitchers led the league or were close to leading the league in strikeouts in their mid 20s and then fell off the face of the earth after that? The only case I can think of happened 20+ years ago with Rick Ankiel. Outside of injury, it just doesn’t happen. You don’t luck into a 200+ strikeout season.

German Marquez, Tyler Mahle, Robby Ray, Kyle Wright,  Danny Salazar, Dylan Bundy (2020 but having a career season), Mike Minor... just within last 10 years who had one absolutely great years but never really sustained.  

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, Snowy Demon said:

German Marquez, Tyler Mahle, Robby Ray, Kyle Wright,  Danny Salazar, Dylan Bundy (2020 but having a career season), Mike Minor... just within last 10 years who had one absolutely great years but never really sustained.  

Márquez has a career WAR of 17 and he’s only 29 (only 3 WAR less than Burnes at same age). Mahle, Salazar, and Ray all got hurt. That’s a different argument altogether. Wright was horrible before his one good season (Crochet has been very good his entire career when he’s on the mound). Dylan Bundy doesn’t even belong in this conversation.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

It’s going to be funny when Thorpe finishes this season with a better MLB ERA than Cease ? 

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

It’s going to be funny when Thorpe finishes this season with a better MLB ERA than Cease ? 

Will take that bet with Thorpe and this defense playing at Guaranteed Fail Rate in the summer months...compared to the spacious SD dimensions, especially at night when there's a marine layer coming in off the water.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Will take that bet with Thorpe and this defense playing at Guaranteed Fail Rate in the summer months...compared to the spacious SD dimensions, especially at night when there's a marine layer coming in off the water.

Marine layer didn’t help Dylan on Friday night against the brew crew!

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

On 5/9/2024 at 7:35 AM, WhiteSox2023 said:

That’s because Cease IS currently pitching like peak-level Verlander for the Padres.  In his start against the Cubs yesterday, he gave up 1 hit and had 12 strikeouts in 7 innings.  It was the first time in the Statcast era (past 9 years) that a starting pitcher didn’t give up a hard hit ball (exit velocity > or = to 95 mph).  Mike Tauchman made an out with an exit velocity of 94.6 mph.

Also, you would be rewriting history if you say you don’t remember posters that wanted to hold onto Cease until this year’s trade deadline so he could prove he was an ace once again and potentially increase the return on him.  I wasn’t one of those posters because I was concerned with Cease getting injured or struggling again, and the Sox getting even less for him.  But it looks like those other posters may have been right.

Of course we can’t just assume Cease would’ve pitched as well as he is with the Padres right now with the Sox, especially with the MLB’s worst defense that Getz put together, but it will still be interesting to see what the Padres get for Cease if they fall out of the playoff race and decide to trade him, and see how that compares with the Sox return from this past offseason.

I guess this was a bit premature because Cease certainly didn’t pitch like peak-level Verlander for long. As we sit here on July 5, his ERA is up to 4.24 and rising FAST. His trade value today is certainly less than where it was four months ago. Apparently Getz was right to pull the trigger when he did.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

On 6/18/2024 at 4:43 PM, Snowy Demon said:

German Marquez, Tyler Mahle, Robby Ray, Kyle Wright,  Danny Salazar, Dylan Bundy (2020 but having a career season), Mike Minor... just within last 10 years who had one absolutely great years but never really sustained.  

None of these pitchers were doing anywhere near what garrett crochet is doing. 

[Chicago White Sox]

43 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I guess this was a bit premature because Cease certainly didn’t pitch like peak-level Verlander for long. As we sit here on July 5, his ERA is up to 4.24 and rising FAST. His trade value today is certainly less than where it was four months ago. Apparently Getz was right to pull the trigger when he did.

Why is his trade value certainly less than it was four months ago?  His velocity is back and his secondary numbers are all much improved vs. last year (and his K & BB rates are better than 2022).  In this market, he’s probably worth the same if not more than he was during spring training.  And that’s not intended to be a dig against Getz as a healthy, productive Cease was always going to be worth more come the deadline but required taking on some risk that may not have worth it to us.

[poppysox]

2 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I guess this was a bit premature because Cease certainly didn’t pitch like peak-level Verlander for long. As we sit here on July 5, his ERA is up to 4.24 and rising FAST. His trade value today is certainly less than where it was four months ago. Apparently Getz was right to pull the trigger when he did.

I don't think you are allowed to say anything positive about Getz.  Please refrain from these outbursts.  

 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why is his trade value certainly less than it was four months ago?  His velocity is back and his secondary numbers are all much improved vs. last year (and his K & BB rates are better than 2022).  In this market, he’s probably worth the same if not more than he was during spring training.  And that’s not intended to be a dig against Getz as a healthy, productive Cease was always going to be worth more come the deadline but required taking on some risk that may not have worth it to us.

fip?  fip+?

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, poppysox said:

I don't think you are allowed to say anything positive about Getz.  Please refrain from these outbursts.  

 

Not necessarily.  None of the players received in return even project as "potential" 3 fWAR guys...well, MAYBE MAYBE Thorpe.

But the last two prospects in this area (85-115 MILB) for the Sox in Ramos and Colas have been pretty much complete busts.

The Padres are not trading Dillon Head or Zavala in recent deals if they were huge believers, as OF is the biggest area of current weakness after Profar and Merrill (and Tatis, Jr.)  David Peralta was added, but seems quite washed up by now.

[WestEddy]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

But the last two prospects in this area (85-115 MILB) for the Sox in Ramos and Colas have been pretty much complete busts.

Don't you think it's a bit early to call Ramos a complete bust? Colas will get his at-bats in August and September. 

[bmags]

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

None of these pitchers were doing anywhere near what garrett crochet is doing. 

Ray won the cy young

[Chicago White Sox]

30 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Not necessarily.  None of the players received in return even project as "potential" 3 fWAR guys...well, MAYBE MAYBE Thorpe.

But the last two prospects in this area (85-115 MILB) for the Sox in Ramos and Colas have been pretty much complete busts.

The Padres are not trading Dillon Head or Zavala in recent deals if they were huge believers, as OF is the biggest area of current weakness after Profar and Merrill (and Tatis, Jr.)  David Peralta was added, but seems quite washed up by now.

Way too early to call Ramos a bust bro

 

 

[joejoesox]

48 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Not necessarily.  None of the players received in return even project as "potential" 3 fWAR guys...well, MAYBE MAYBE Thorpe.

But the last two prospects in this area (85-115 MILB) for the Sox in Ramos and Colas have been pretty much complete busts.

The Padres are not trading Dillon Head or Zavala in recent deals if they were huge believers, as OF is the biggest area of current weakness after Profar and Merrill (and Tatis, Jr.)  David Peralta was added, but seems quite washed up by now.

Iriarte has been getting hit hard his last 3-4 starts

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why is his trade value certainly less than it was four months ago?  His velocity is back and his secondary numbers are all much improved vs. last year (and his K & BB rates are better than 2022).  In this market, he’s probably worth the same if not more than he was during spring training.  And that’s not intended to be a dig against Getz as a healthy, productive Cease was always going to be worth more come the deadline but required taking on some risk that may not have worth it to us.

I think it’s become very clear this season that 2022 was the exception not the rule for Cease. The first half of this season proves that despite pitching in spacious Petco in front of a better defense he’s nothing more than a #3 starter. Combine this with a half season less of control and his value is down. In fact, I’d say that his trade value isn’t much different than Erick Fedde at this point.

[WhiteSox2023]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why is his trade value certainly less than it was four months ago?  His velocity is back and his secondary numbers are all much improved vs. last year (and his K & BB rates are better than 2022).  In this market, he’s probably worth the same if not more than he was during spring training.  And that’s not intended to be a dig against Getz as a healthy, productive Cease was always going to be worth more come the deadline but required taking on some risk that may not have worth it to us.

Cuz…  ERA.  He sucks.

[WhiteSox2023]

1 hour ago, poppysox said:

I don't think you are allowed to say anything positive about Getz.  Please refrain from these outbursts.  

 

https://www.mlb.com/standings/

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

9 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Cuz…  ERA.  He sucks.

Yea, his ERA will improve once he gets away from the Sox shitty defense. Oh wait..

[T R U]

Cease has a 3.27 FIP and is striking out 11.5 per nine.

He's also walking batters at a career best 2.8 per nine, also second best WHIP hes had since the 2022 season.

He's a pretty good pitcher still.

 

[baseball_gal_aly]

26 minutes ago, T R U said:

Cease has a 3.27 FIP and is striking out 11.5 per nine.

He's also walking batters at a career best 2.8 per nine, also second best WHIP hes had since the 2022 season.

He's a pretty good pitcher still.

 

This reminds me of the Javy Vazquez discourse. 

[Kyyle23]

16 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

This reminds me of the Javy Vazquez discourse. 

This doesn’t remind me at all of that.  Javy fell apart at 5-6 innings, every time.  The minute we saw him starting to flail around we would be like “TAKE HIM OUT” and that lasted his entire tenure.

Cease was brilliant , then had an ok year, this team bottomed out and we had to scramble to trade him because we never bothered to extend him and then he decided to hang with Boras so some people convinced themselves Cease isn’t as good as we thought.

i honestly don’t think anything is similar to Javy

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

Ray won the cy young

Ray doesn't really belong on that list but yes, Ray was great. He was also 29 when he did that. 

[baseball_gal_aly]

13 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

This doesn’t remind me at all of that.  Javy fell apart at 5-6 innings, every time.  The minute we saw him starting to flail around we would be like “TAKE HIM OUT” and that lasted his entire tenure.

Cease was brilliant , then had an ok year, this team bottomed out and we had to scramble to trade him because we never bothered to extend him and then he decided to hang with Boras so some people convinced themselves Cease isn’t as good as we thought.

i honestly don’t think anything is similar to Javy

I'm talking about a guy that consistently has an ERA higher than his FIP and people are like "he's good actually"

Vazquez had good years too, but at some point actual run prevention matters. 

Edited July 5 by baseball_gal_aly

[Kyyle23]

Just now, baseball_gal_aly said:

I'm talking about a guy that consistently has an ERA higher than his FIP and people are like "he's good actually" Vazquez had good years too, at some point actual run prevention matters. 

All talk of Javy being good, actually, ended when he put the Sox uniform on.  I cannot recall a more disappointing pitcher and a more unified fan response