Cease To Padres per Passan

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

FWIW, BA put a 70 grade on Ortiz’s fielding in their latest update vs. having him at a 60 grade previously.  While I’ll always be skeptical of someone making that type of defensive jump at his age, it’s really the bat that I’m concerned bout.  I’ve heard about these rumored elite EVs, but they conflict with every single scouting report I read on him.  And without access to Statcast type data at the minor league level, I highly question the validity of said statements.

An example of something recent from Keith Law (who has always loved Ortiz)

 

https://x.com/oriolesreview/status/1739058503203930604?s=46&t=G3On-_LleGmZce-r3ClVZA

[SoCalChiSox]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think that point is here now. The rumored Reds trade is a good example of that.

I actually think Cease can raise his value during the year. It’s less service time but if you can get him in June or July and he is pitching at a high level, he will fetch more than he can now imo.

But that’s a risk and on I am  not sure is worth taking.

Cease just isn’t fetching 3 prospects in the 35-75 range. It’s just not happening.

I dont think we will be at that point until it's time for pitchers and catchers to report and after Snell and Montgomery sign. At that point everyone's cards will be on the table and the game playing will have to end. Deadlines force action. 

I do not believe our FO seriously expects 3 guys in the 35-75 range. I think they are shooting high with, as others have said, a "buy now" price and seeing if a desperate team bites.

If not they are willing to continue this staredown until they get at least one Top 50, one 50-100 and a useful third piece that may not be Top 100 now but they feel may be knocking on that door at some point fairly soon.

On the one hand because supply is thin and demand is high, the Sox are holding all the cards.

On the other hand, the Sox have at least a 70 grade and perhaps 80 grade "step on your own dick" tool so they are  quite capable of fucking this up, probably by insisting on a foolish SP heavy deal from a garbage trading partner like ATL. 

It remains to be seen whether the Sox losers DNA will overcome favorable market forces. 

[Timmy U]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

FWIW, BA put a 70 grade on Ortiz’s fielding in their latest update vs. having him at a 60 grade previously.  While I’ll always be skeptical of someone making that type of defensive jump at his age, it’s really the bat that I’m concerned bout.  I’ve heard about these rumored elite EVs, but they conflict with every single scouting report I read on him.  And without access to Statcast type data at the minor league level, I highly question the validity of said statements.

Also, AAA EV's have to be put into context. You know who had pretty damn good EV's in AA/AAA? Lenyn Sosa. Does not mean it projects to the majors. Hell, Adam Haseley destroyed AAA, and he's not that much older than Ortiz.  Popeye Rodriguez plays GG defense at 2b and has mondo EV's, but no one's clamoring for him.

Truth is, the Sox need OF help and this front office desires pitchers. Without Cowser or Kjerstad, I just don't think the O's are a match. Nothing wrong with that. Vaughn Grissom and Smith-Shawver + is a better package than anything we've heard being offered by the O's.

As far as keeping Cease, the Sox are gonna lose a lot with him or without him, but if you keep him him, maybe with cold weather and improved D, the Sox can be in spitting distance of .500 until June. That'll sell tickets and maybe prevent a complete collapse of the fan base.  That's worth a hell of a lot more than the $8 million he's scheduled to make.

[Snopek]

1 hour ago, Rey21 said:

Opening day game against the Astros is who Cease is during big time performances, that’s what teams are going to have to pay for, not some early 98 degree August game against the Royals when nobody wants to be there 

I'm not exactly sure this is the positive attribute that you're making it out to be. Plus, I don't find it to be particularly true. I think Cease is definitely a better pitcher than he showed during the 2023 season, but let's not pretend he's some big game pitcher who always shines in the spotlight. He's barely even been in the spotlight. 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Timmy U said:

Also, AAA EV's have to be put into context. You know who had pretty damn good EV's in AA/AAA? Lenyn Sosa. Does not mean it projects to the majors. Hell, Adam Haseley destroyed AAA, and he's not that much older than Ortiz.  Popeye Rodriguez plays GG defense at 2b and has mondo EV's, but no one's clamoring for him.

Truth is, the Sox need OF help and this front office desires pitchers. Without Cowser or Kjerstad, I just don't think the O's are a match. Nothing wrong with that. Vaughn Grissom and Smith-Shawver + is a better package than anything we've heard being offered by the O's.

As far as keeping Cease, the Sox are gonna lose a lot with him or without him, but if you keep him him, maybe with cold weather and improved D, the Sox can be in spitting distance of .500 until June. That'll sell tickets and maybe prevent a complete collapse of the fan base.  That's worth a hell of a lot more than the $8 million he's scheduled to make.

Oh I’m 100% with you.  I’m not doing a Cease trade with Baltimore unless I’m getting one of Kjerstad or Cowser (or theoretically Mayo, but far more unlikely) as the centerpiece plus one of their infield prospects (preferably not Norby) as plus a solid third piece.  I do think Ortiz could be that second piece, but I view him more of a high floor guy than someone with anything close to a 5 fWAR ceiling.

[SoCalChiSox]

13 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

Also, AAA EV's have to be put into context. You know who had pretty damn good EV's in AA/AAA? Lenyn Sosa. Does not mean it projects to the majors. Hell, Adam Haseley destroyed AAA, and he's not that much older than Ortiz.  Popeye Rodriguez plays GG defense at 2b and has mondo EV's, but no one's clamoring for him.

Truth is, the Sox need OF help and this front office desires pitchers. Without Cowser or Kjerstad, I just don't think the O's are a match. Nothing wrong with that. Vaughn Grissom and Smith-Shawver + is a better package than anything we've heard being offered by the O's.

As far as keeping Cease, the Sox are gonna lose a lot with him or without him, but if you keep him him, maybe with cold weather and improved D, the Sox can be in spitting distance of .500 until June. That'll sell tickets and maybe prevent a complete collapse of the fan base.  That's worth a hell of a lot more than the $8 million he's scheduled to make.

Vaughn Grissom is 1) right handed and apparently is 2) a butcher in the field. Therefore he has too many frailties to be considered a significant piece.

If he's anything more than a throw in piece, a deal with Atlanta would be a disaster of biblical proportions.

If ATL really wants to be the trading partner it would need to be AJSS+Waldrep+Kelenic+Grissom/Murphy JUST TO BE CONSIDERED. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by SoCalChiSox

[Timmy U]

5 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Vaughn Grissom is 1) right handed and apparently is 2) a butcher in the field. Therefore he has too many frailties to be considered a significant piece.

If he's anything more than a throw in piece, a deal with Atlanta would be a disaster of biblical proportions.

If ATL really wants to be the trading partner it would need to be AJSS+Waldrep+Kelenic+Grissom/Murphy JUST TO BE CONSIDERED. 

I think we simply disagree on the player. Grissom has already hit in the majors and he's a good enough athlete to play either IF or OF. I don't like him as much as Cowser, but Cowser isn't available.  I do not see a world in which Atlanta gives you BOTH Waldrep and AJSS. Obviously, getting both would be awesome. But I like AJSS a lot. If the Sox were that into Waldrep, they should have drafted him instead of Gonzalez.

[Sports Guy]

I don’t get the hope for an Atlanta trade. They just don’t offer an overly enticing package imo.

[Tnetennba]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t get the hope for an Atlanta trade. They just don’t offer an overly enticing package imo.

I don't think ATL is the preferred trade partner for most of us, but we have to view this through the lens of the cheap owner tasking his GM to acquire cost-controlled pitching in return. 

[Timmy U]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t get the hope for an Atlanta trade. They just don’t offer an overly enticing package imo.

Who are the O's offering who's better than AJSS? It ain't Ortiz.  So far, the two best players being talked about as being in packages being offered are AJSS from ATL and Chase Petty from the Reds. The Sox can only say yes to packages that are on offer. Just because the O's have players they won't give up who are better than those guys doesn't mean the guys they are willing to give up are particularly enticing.

[fathom]

Found it interesting that Sahadev Sharma, in a recent article, mentioned Wesneski and Ben Brown as non-untouchables, and he thinks at least one of them will be traded in a big deal.  You package those two with Cassie and you have the makings of a fair Cease deal.

[fathom]

1 minute ago, Timmy U said:

Who are the O's offering who's better than AJSS? It ain't Ortiz.  So far, the two best players being talked about as being in packages being offered are AJSS from ATL and Chase Petty from the Reds. The Sox can only say yes to packages that are on offer. Just because the O's have players they won't give up who are better than those guys doesn't mean the guys they are willing to give up are particularly enticing.

I’m also completely not interested in any more “diminutive” middle infielders

[Timmy U]

2 minutes ago, fathom said:

Found it interesting that Sahadev Sharma, in a recent article, mentioned Wesneski and Ben Brown as non-untouchables, and he thinks at least one of them will be traded in a big deal.  You package those two with Cassie and you have the makings of a fair Cease deal.

Interesting. It really depends on how you evaluate Caissie. No one hit the ball harder than he did last year, but that is a big swing. If you believe in the bat, go for it, but he has a gigantic bust potential. I've watched him play some and I'm really on the fence.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

Who are the O's offering who's better than AJSS? It ain't Ortiz.  So far, the two best players being talked about as being in packages being offered are AJSS from ATL and Chase Petty from the Reds. The Sox can only say yes to packages that are on offer. Just because the O's have players they won't give up who are better than those guys doesn't mean the guys they are willing to give up are particularly enticing.

AJSS is rated in the same area as Ortiz. He walked a ton of guys in the minors and didn’t throw many innings.

You like the age and he definitely has good upside but honestly, he has more of a reliever profile than a starter as of right now and the WS aren’t likely to develop him to be something special.

If you want a pitcher to head up the deal, I think you need to get a more refined and harder to screw up guy.

[SoCalChiSox]

1 minute ago, Timmy U said:

Who are the O's offering who's better than AJSS? It ain't Ortiz.  So far, the two best players being talked about as being in packages being offered are AJSS from ATL and Chase Petty from the Reds. The Sox can only say yes to packages that are on offer. Just because the O's have players they won't give up who are better than those guys doesn't mean the guys they are willing to give up are particularly enticing.

We don't know the final offers that's the problem. We know right now there is no incentive by any party to put their cards on the table, not until the last minute. 

 

[fathom]

I watched a lot of videos of AJSS when he was in the majors last year, and I can’t believe how many hangers he threw with his breaking ball.   His change up seemed effective.

[Timmy U]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

AJSS is rated in the same area as Ortiz. He walked a ton of guys in the minors and didn’t throw many innings.

You like the age and he definitely has good upside but honestly, he has more of a reliever profile than a starter as of right now and the WS aren’t likely to develop him to be something special.

If you want a pitcher to head up the deal, I think you need to get a more refined and harder to screw up guy.

I think when you're headed into a bunch of losing seasons, you gotta go for upside. AJSS is a fast riser with ++ stuff. If it goes South, he's a reliever. If he hits, he's a top 3 starter. Ortiz has a high utility risk. Even if he hits, he's a second division regular. Yawn. Plus, by the time the Sox are any good, he'll be like 29. The two are simply not comparable to me.

[bmags]

I like Owen Murphy a lot too. His stuff fell back a bit, but ATL does great building up innings in these guys. He already had 80 IP last year. AJSs should, at 21 be able to handle 110-120.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

I think when you're headed into a bunch of losing seasons, you gotta go for upside. AJSS is a fast riser with ++ stuff. If it goes South, he's a reliever. If he hits, he's a top 3 starter. Ortiz has a high utility risk. Even if he hits, he's a second division regular. Yawn. Plus, by the time the Sox are any good, he'll be like 29. The two are simply not comparable to me.

You are completely wrong about Ortiz but I don’t disagree about trying to hit on upside.

The flip side to that is that you guys also need to hit on this trade. If this trade blows up in your face, you are likely looking at 4-6 years of being completely irrelevant. That may be a happening anyway but you need ML contributors from this trade to make you better. 
 

AJsS is a high risk/high reward type guy.

And btw, the Braves don’t usually trade guys they really like. I would be wary of a deal where they are happily sending you their best prospect (if they are willing to do it).

Edited December 27, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Nardiwashere]

Am I missing something?  From what I have read, Joey Ortiz is a 25 year old 5'9 middle infielder with below average speed who may have average power but is a utility guy if he doesn't.  Right?  

If so, he can't really be the centerpiece of a Cease deal except in the delusional fever dreams of a bunch of guys who sound like Sgt. Wayne Jenkins from that HBO show. 

 

[fathom]

2 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

Am I missing something?  From what I have read, Joey Ortiz is a 25 year old 5'9 middle infielder with below average speed who may have average power but is a utility guy if he doesn't.  Right?  

If so, he can't really be the centerpiece of a Cease deal except in the delusional fever dreams of a bunch of guys who sound like Sgt. Wayne Jenkins from that HBO show. 

 

At this point, I would be shocked if the Orioles land Cease.  Braves, Yankees, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers and Red Sox might be more realistic.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

Am I missing something?  From what I have read, Joey Ortiz is a 25 year old 5'9 middle infielder with below average speed who may have average power but is a utility guy if he doesn't.  Right?  

If so, he can't really be the centerpiece of a Cease deal except in the delusional fever dreams of a bunch of guys who sound like Sgt. Wayne Jenkins from that HBO show. 

 

FTR, I do not think he should be the centerpiece for this deal because of his age.

My argument is more just about him as a player. He is an elite defensive guy with high end exit velo numbers that is putting up big stats in a pitchers park in AAA and he did the same thing in AA too.

He lost time because of the COVID year and he has a shoulder injury that took him about a year to overcome.

Since he got back from that, which is around June of 2022, he has lit it up with the bat and the glove.

We have guys over on OH that say if he is the second player in the deal, we are overpaying. I think that an absurd opinion. I don’t think you let Ortiz stop you from making a deal, especially with our high end talent in the IF but just because we have 2 guys that are MVP level talents at SS doesn’t diminish Ortiz’s value. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, fathom said:

At this point, I would be shocked if the Orioles land Cease.  Braves, Yankees, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers and Red Sox might be more realistic.

I won’t be shocked but I doubt it happens because I question if Elias will move Cowser or Kjerstad for just 2 years of a player.

[SoCalChiSox]

10 minutes ago, fathom said:

At this point, I would be shocked if the Orioles land Cease.  Braves, Yankees, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers and Red Sox might be more realistic.

If the Red Sox in particular are desperate we could end up with an even better positional haul than BAL. 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

10 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

Am I missing something?  From what I have read, Joey Ortiz is a 25 year old 5'9 middle infielder with below average speed who may have average power but is a utility guy if he doesn't.  Right?  

If so, he can't really be the centerpiece of a Cease deal except in the delusional fever dreams of a bunch of guys who sound like Sgt. Wayne Jenkins from that HBO show. 

 

No one is actually suggesting he is the centerpiece amongst Sox fans.  I have gotten in a lot of debates over at Orioles Hangout because some of their fans (not the majority though) feel he could be the centerpiece.  Personally, I think Orioles fans greatly overrate Ortiz’s value while many Sox fans undervalue it.  I personally view Ortiz as a low-end top 100 type prospect who I think has a shot of being a steady 2.0 to 2.5 win player with a league average bat but who could also not hit enough where you’re almost immediately looking for an upgrade. I also worry about his age and that goes into my discounted value for him.