Cease To Padres per Passan

[Balta1701]

19 minutes ago, fathom said:

Yep, I’d be more worried about a mediocre performance just because the team is so bad.  Defense will be better behind him, but losing a ton with no fans in attendance can deflate a player.

I promise to go out and be a well motivated professional for only 20% of his next contract.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

45 million dollar contract? Lol

I picked Giolito’s contract value. 2 years ago we thought he was a $200 million guy.

[Tnetennba]

1 hour ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

45 million dollar contract? Lol

If Cease only has offers of $45M in two years, something went terribly wrong, and it has nothing to do with his down 2023. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

19 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Then again, Cease is the one legit chip the Sox have. They aren’t trading Robert for at least 2 years. I am not blinking in January 2024 if I’m Getz. Teams will grow more desperate as the winter drags on. 

I wouldn't count on not trading Robert for 2 years.

1 more 5+ WAR in 2024 will solidify him as a legit superstar. That would mean he had another healthy season. I'd trade him then.

It doesn't matter if you think he's too good to be traded. You trade him when he is at his healthiest AND at the top of his game.

There is no such thing as too good or too valuable that you could never get his value in a return. He is only one guy playing one position. He only has a certain amount of years left on his contract . If he gets hurt for the obtaining team he's useless, valueless, except for the years left that he can be productive and establish more value.

After 2024 is over he'll have 3 years left. 1 Arb year and 2 club option years.

With his injury history it's not wise to hang onto him for a 3rd year in a row expecting him to miss minimal games.

You don't want to be too greedy expecting peak performance and peak health for that long just because you rather get 5 talented players than 4. Plus there are forces at play where you think value may be at a peak. You never know it could be at the All Star break / trade deadline 2024 with Robert putting up 3.5 WAR by then.

Or Cease can be held till the trade deadline 2024 and his performance will have a bearing on the right time to trade Robert along with other market conditions.

Of course this all depends on if they are pretending or legitimately think they can contend. JR may decide to stick his nose in again and screw it all up.

[Jerksticks]

36 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I wouldn't count on not trading Robert for 2 years.

1 more 5+ WAR in 2024 will solidify him as a legit superstar. That would mean he had another healthy season. I'd trade him then.

It doesn't matter if you think he's too good to be traded. You trade him when he is at his healthiest AND at the top of his game.

There is no such thing as too good or too valuable that you could never get his value in a return. He is only one guy playing one position. He only has a certain amount of years left on his contract . If he gets hurt for the obtaining team he's useless, valueless, except for the years left that he can be productive and establish more value.

After 2024 is over he'll have 3 years left. 1 Arb year and 2 club option years.

With his injury history it's not wise to hang onto him for a 3rd year in a row expecting him to miss minimal games.

You don't want to be too greedy expecting peak performance and peak health for that long just because you rather get 5 talented players than 4. Plus there are forces at play where you think value may be at a peak. You never know it could be at the All Star break / trade deadline 2024 with Robert putting up 3.5 WAR by then.

Or Cease can be held till the trade deadline 2024 and his performance will have a bearing on the right time to trade Robert along with other market conditions.

Of course this all depends on if they are pretending or legitimately think they can contend. JR may decide to stick his nose in again and screw it all up.

Rays FO, is that you?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

8 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Rays FO, is that you?

Ha I'll take that as a compliment. If you think that post was lengthy you should've seen everything I started writing about the Rays.

I decided fuk it. JR cannot even see the benefit or hiring a lot more developmental people in scouting, coaching, or any computer science/biometrics people.

We're just spinning our wheels talking about getting prospects again.

I'm not confident at all that the Sox have the right people to turn high draft picks or prospects from another team into useful players.

[TheFutureIsNear]

28 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Rays FO, is that you?

If you are realistic about the state of the franchise and also about who our owner is…exploring trades for Robert makes a lot of sense. Obviously you only take an incredible deal, but Getz def shouldn’t be hanging up the phone if a team calls about Robert 

[Sambuca]

16 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

If you are realistic about the state of the franchise and also about who our owner is…exploring trades for Robert makes a lot of sense. Obviously you only take an incredible deal, but Getz def shouldn’t be hanging up the phone if a team calls about Robert 

If you are realistic about the state of the franchise and who the owner is, you also know we’ve been down this road before. Having the best trade commodities in MLB only brought us to this point right now. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

43 minutes ago, Sambuca said:

If you are realistic about the state of the franchise and who the owner is, you also know we’ve been down this road before. Having the best trade commodities in MLB only brought us to this point right now. 

Yes but you still have to pick a road and even if it's much harder to tank now with that ridiculous draft rule, there's not really much choice on the direction the Sox should take.

I can understand not wanting multiple years of tanking being too beneficial but should've made it a lottery then where you still have the best odds of getting the highest pick not falling all the way to 10th.

[Sambuca]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Yes but you still have to pick a road and even if it's much harder to tank now with that ridiculous draft rule, there's not really much choice on the direction the Sox should take.

I can understand not wanting multiple years of tanking being too beneficial but should've made it a lottery then where you still have the best odds of getting the highest pick not falling all the way to 10th.

Agreed and unfortunately I presented that information without an actual solution because of current ownership. 

But as I sit here right now, knowing what we know and experienced, I would enjoy White Sox baseball more getting to watch one of the best players in the league for the next four years and seeing Getz fail at “going for it” for all of those years. 

I know “going for it” has no chance, but it still sounds light years more enjoyable than what has transpired over the last four years. A complete train wreck trying execute a rebuild after trading all of our best players and acquiring some of the best young talent in baseball. The last two years exposed the ineptitude of current ownership more than any fan should ever have to experience. 

I wish I had better words, but basically if that is how Reinsdorf and co. will handle another rebuild, then just let me enjoy Robert, please. Getz can attempt best KW ‘05 every year and we can finish in 3rd place with a bunch white “grinders.” 

It’s all very sad. Lol?

[Whisox05]

Still linking orioles to cease 

[SCCWS]

15 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Dylan Cease is at a spot in his career where a strong season is literally the difference between a $45 million contract and a $200+ million contract. If he can’t find the motivation to be a Cy Young candidate for 2 years in that amount of money, then you wouldn’t want to trade for him anyway.

A guy can be motivated to be a Cy Young candidate but there is other factors involved.  Some players are solid year to year and others have periods of good and bad periods. Some guys have physical issues which can result in a bad season or even a few months. My point is if the Sox don't get a deal that works, they may have to wait until next July and see if Cease is hopefully a must have starter for a rotation as opposed to a struggling starter.  

[MiddleCoastBias]

17 minutes ago, Whisox05 said:

Still linking orioles to cease 

Still Jon Morosi.

[SoCalChiSox]

8 minutes ago, MiddleCoastBias said:

Still Jon Morosi.

Yes but better than nothing 

[Sambuca]

9 minutes ago, MiddleCoastBias said:

Still Jon Morosi.

He’s trying.

[Balta1701]

32 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

My point is if the Sox don't get a deal that works, they may have to wait until next July and see if Cease is hopefully a must have starter for a rotation as opposed to a struggling starter.  

This is literally what I have been saying will happen since this thread started.

[Rey21]

Morosi and Getz are tight, I’m sure this has legs but he’s not saying anything we didn’t know already. 

[Bob Sacamano]

7 minutes ago, Sambuca said:

He’s trying.

Anyone can speculate and make the obvious connection.

[Rey21]

If Elias isn’t willing to give up Kjerstad just move on, not worth the discussion then IMO. O’s forum is trying to sell off “studs” like Mountcastle or Westburg as the headliners for any good starter, instead of any of their top 5 guys. 

[Frobby]

17 hours ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I was OK with him as a second piece if you get a LH savage bat as the first piece, but the fact that the Orioles fans here are trying to push him on us is kind of a red flag to me, so now I'm now concerned he could end up like Madrigal here (not in the sense that he's a midget egotistical slap hitter but rather just the bust concern in general). I need to see @Frobby etc. putting up some resistance to giving him up so I can feel better about him. 

The reason we’ve been discussing Ortiz so much is that the O’s have a lot of redundancy in the infield:

Gunnar Henderson. Stud who can play either SS or 3B well.  Not going anywhere.  Under control for 5 years.

Jackson Holliday.  Anticipated stud who can play either 2B or SS.  May still be a couple of months away, but maybe not.  Will be a “must play” once up.  Under control for 6+ years.

Jordan Westburg.  Solid 2B or 3B who can play SS adequately too if needed   Decent debut half-season and will get even better.  Under control for 6 years.

Joey Ortiz.  Best defender in the MiL system at either SS or 2B, can play 3B too.  Bat has been excellent the last season and a half in the minors after recovering from shoulder surgery (non-throwing shoulder) in 2021.  Under control for 6 years. 

Connor Norby.  Seasoned AAA guy who’s a very solid hitter, weakest 2B defender of this group, can play LF.  Under control for 6+ years.

Coby Mayo.  3B who’s about ready offensively, may need some more polish defensively and probably won’t be as good at 3B as Henderson, Westburg or Ortiz despite a 70 arm.  May move to 1B or RF, not because he can’t play 3B, but because we have better defensive options there.  Under control 6+ years.

Ramon Urias.  Veteran who’s very capable at 3B (won a Gold Glove there in 2022) and 2B, can play SS too but not as well as several others listed here.  Very decent bat (106 OPS+) and has been worth 7.4 rWAR in 329 games.  Still under control for 3 more years.  

Jorge Mateo.  Excellent defensive SS (Fielding Bible winner in 2022) who shows some amazing flashes with the bat (1.062 OPS last April) but has been a terrible hitter most of the time (78 OPS+).  Defense was amazing as a starter, but slipped to merely above average when he was relegated to the bench in the second half of 2023.  Under control for two more years.  

Henderson and Holliday are untouchable.   Some consider Mayo untouchable, I’m a little less strident than some O’s fans (e.g. Sports Guy) but for I doubt he’d be moved in a deal for Cease despite Cease’s upside.   

So you can see, Ortiz is a bit redundant for us, which is why we’d be willing to part with him more readily than we’d part with an equally-rated pitcher or an outfielder.   But there’s no magic to Ortiz here.  Westburg or Norby could be included in a package as well.   Personally I rank them Westburg/Ortiz/Norby, but they’re closely grouped and it depends what a team is looking for.  

Sorry if this is too much detail but I thought it might be useful context for those who don’t follow the O’s closely.  
 

[SoCalChiSox]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The reason we’ve been discussing Ortiz so much is that the O’s have a lot of redundancy in the infield:

Gunnar Henderson. Stud who can play either SS or 3B well.  Not going anywhere.  Under control for 5 years.

Jackson Holliday.  Anticipated stud who can play either 2B or SS.  May still be a couple of months away, but maybe not.  Will be a “must play” once up.  Under control for 6+ years.

Jordan Westburg.  Solid 2B or 3B who can play SS adequately too if needed   Decent debut half-season and will get even better.  Under control for 6 years.

Joey Ortiz.  Best defender in the MiL system at either SS or 2B, can play 3B too.  Bat has been excellent the last season and a half in the minors after recovering from shoulder surgery (non-throwing shoulder) in 2021.  Under control for 6 years. 

Connor Norby.  Seasoned AAA guy who’s a very solid hitter, weakest 2B defender of this group, can play LF.  Under control for 6+ years.

Coby Mayo.  3B who’s about ready offensively, may need some more polish defensively and probably won’t be as good at 3B as Henderson, Westburg or Ortiz despite a 70 arm.  May move to 1B or RF, not because he can’t play 3B, but because we have better defensive options there.  Under control 6+ years.

Ramon Urias.  Veteran who’s very capable at 3B (won a Gold Glove there in 2022) and 2B, can play SS too but not as well as several others listed here.  Very decent bat (106 OPS+) and has been worth 7.4 rWAR in 329 games.  Still under control for 3 more years.  

Jorge Mateo.  Excellent defensive SS (Fielding Bible winner in 2022) who shows some amazing flashes with the bat (1.062 OPS last April) but has been a terrible hitter most of the time (78 OPS+).  Defense was amazing as a starter, but slipped to merely above average when he was relegated to the bench in the second half of 2023.  Under control for two more years.  

Henderson and Holliday are untouchable.   Some consider Mayo untouchable, I’m a little less strident than some O’s fans (e.g. Sports Guy) but for I doubt he’d be moved in a deal for Cease despite Cease’s upside.   

So you can see, Ortiz is a bit redundant for us, which is why we’d be willing to part with him more readily than we’d part with an equally-rated pitcher or an outfielder.   But there’s no magic to Ortiz here.  Westburg or Norby could be included in a package as well.   Personally I rank them Westburg/Ortiz/Norby, but they’re closely grouped and it depends what a team is looking for.  

Sorry if this is too much detail but I thought it might be useful context for those who don’t follow the O’s closely.  
 

I appreciate your detailed analysis,  thanks Frobby.

[Timmy U]

Morosi would fit right into this thread. He'd be surprised if nothing happened, but has no clue whatsoever whether anything is actually happening

[Jerksticks]

2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Ha I'll take that as a compliment. If you think that post was lengthy you should've seen everything I started writing about the Rays.

I decided fuk it. JR cannot even see the benefit or hiring a lot more developmental people in scouting, coaching, or any computer science/biometrics people.

We're just spinning our wheels talking about getting prospects again.

I'm not confident at all that the Sox have the right people to turn high draft picks or prospects from another team into useful players.

I’m 100% with you.  I really think our only sustainable path is Rays with maybe more brutality.  
 

We flip everybody at the 2-years-left mark.  Doesn’t matter if you’re Robert or Big Frank.  See ya.  Totally brutal.  We need to turn you into 2-4 assets.  
 

And then we spend money on FA to pack the pen.  
 

we never give money to our own developed guys because they have to get flipped to keep the churn machine going. 
 

 

something like this maybe?

[SoCalChiSox]

44 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

This is literally what I have been saying will happen since this thread started.

Eh.....I still think you are inferring alot of things that are questionable.

For example, let's assume we are at the point of where pitchers and catchers report and let's say Getz successfully called Elias bluff and Elias is now offering the 1) LH savage OFer of Getz choice (Cowser or Hjerstad, Getz likely prefers the former), plus 2) the IFer that Getz wanted (Ortiz/Norby) and 3) he's finally agreed to SP Cade Povich as the third piece.

95%+ of this board would take that deal and such a deal would also thoroughly repudiate you and baseball galaly's theory that Cease is only worth a single back end Top 100 player plus some lottery tickets.

Suppose Getz still says no and the reason is because he still wants a pitching heavy deal, not a pitcher as the third piece deal.

That a trade didn't go down doesn't necessarily mean we overvalued Cease, it could also mean that Getz/JR simply has the wrong priorities in terms of what they want in the return. 

You will be correct only if 1) he isn't traded by ST AND 2) our insiders uniformly confirm that no one offered 2 Top 100 players (or equivalent) in any type of combination. You gotta satisfy both elements.

But Getz saying I only want pitching and someone offering a treasure trove of bats doesn't mean you are right. It means our FO and owner are stupid. 

[Jerksticks]

Man, screw pitching.  I can’t believe I used to like pitching.  So delicate to ever count on or make useful projection with.  
 

Tip your cap to the ace performances and beat the heck out of the pitchers in the other 140 games you play.