Cease To Padres per Passan

[Chicago White Sox]

21 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Eh.....I still think you are inferring alot of things that are questionable.

For example, let's assume we are at the point of where pitchers and catchers report and let's say Getz successfully called Elias bluff and Elias is now offering the 1) LH savage OFer of Getz choice (Cowser or Hjerstad, Getz likely prefers the former), plus 2) the IFer that Getz wanted (Ortiz/Norby) and 3) he's finally agreed to SP Cade Povich as the third piece.

95%+ of this board would take that deal and such a deal would also thoroughly repudiate you and baseball galaly's theory that Cease is only worth a single back end Top 100 player plus some lottery tickets.

Suppose Getz still says no and the reason is because he still wants a pitching heavy deal, not a pitcher as the third piece deal.

That a trade didn't go down doesn't necessarily mean we overvalued Cease, it could also mean that Getz/JR simply has the wrong priorities in terms of what they want in the return. 

You will be correct only if 1) he isn't traded by ST AND 2) our insiders uniformly confirm that no one offered 2 Top 100 players (or equivalent) in any type of combination. You gotta satisfy both elements.

But Getz saying I only want pitching and someone offering a treasure trove of bats doesn't mean you are right. It means our FO and owner are stupid. 

I think it’s worth pointing out that the majority of Orioles fans would do a Cowser + Ortiz package for Cease.  This may not fully meet our fandom’s desires, but it does represent one consensus top 50 prospect (most would have him as a 55 FV guy) and one consensus top 100 prospect (50 FV guy).  And while a bunch of message board posters aren’t ultimately agreeing to a trade, it does suggest an acknowledgement of value that Cease has which Balta & Aly refuse to accept.  Fans almost always overrate their prospects is the key point, which is a great point because it means a savage OF + infield prospect + lesser 3rd piece framework is likely possible, but will require both sides to come to a compromise.  My guess is Getz is still asking for four pieces (and legit ones) while Elias is reluctant to give up a SP prospect at this time.  Hopefully push comes to shove at some point and Covich is agreed upon as a third piece.  A Cease to Baltimore trade just makes too much sense for both sides.

[Sambuca]

1 hour ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Anyone can speculate and make the obvious connection.

Yeah, I was joking/being sarcastic. 

[SoCalChiSox]

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think it’s worth pointing out that the majority of Orioles fans would do a Cowser + Ortiz package for Cease.  This may not fully meet our fandom’s desires, but it does represent one consensus top 50 prospect (most would have him as a 55 FV guy) and one consensus top 100 prospect (50 FV guy).  And while a bunch of message board posters aren’t ultimately agreeing to a trade, it does suggest an acknowledgement of value that Cease has which Balta & Aly refuse to accept.  Fans almost always overrate their prospects is the key point, which is a great point because it means a savage OF + infield prospect + lesser 3rd piece framework is likely possible, but will require both sides to come to a compromise.  My guess is Getz is still asking for four pieces (and legit ones) while Elias is reluctant to give up a SP prospect at this time.  Hopefully push comes to shove at some point and Covich is agreed upon as a third piece.  A Cease to Baltimore trade just makes too much sense for both sides.

Good points as always.....imo if Getz is asking for 4 legit pieces as you suggest, it's still all kabuki theatre because both sides kind of know where it will end up but they have to dance for awhile first and what each side will truly accept will only be revealed when there's a real deadline or when someone else has made a great offer but someone else also has an alternative that's time sensitive.

Elias has to say no to the savage OF/IF/SP and legit 4th piece framework and offer 2 pieces instead without either the savage or the SP. Getz has to stick with 4 until the last second in the hopes he can use NYY/BOS to spook him into a deal and when the rubber finally meets the road, Getz and Elias both will either have to accept the 3 man framework plus maybe a lotto ticket or they won't. 

I think fathom said the "plan" is they want to wait until after Snell/Montgomery. Hopefully neither end up in the AL East or at absolute most only 1 ends up there. I think Snell will end up on the west coast and we'll see if TEX is willing to outbid NYY and BOS for Montgomery. 

IMO if Cashman is willing to play ball and he's on a hotter seat so he should, I would take Jones, two pitchers and a SS/2B prospect. I dont think they will move Dominguez because of fan backlash. It's hard to tell a little kid they can't have a piece of candy when they've had a small bite of it already and like it. Much easier to take something away from them that's only theoretical. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, Jerksticks said:

I’m 100% with you.  I really think our only sustainable path is Rays with maybe more brutality.  
 

We flip everybody at the 2-years-left mark.  Doesn’t matter if you’re Robert or Big Frank.  See ya.  Totally brutal.  We need to turn you into 2-4 assets.  
 

And then we spend money on FA to pack the pen.  
 

we never give money to our own developed guys because they have to get flipped to keep the churn machine going. 
 

 

something like this maybe?

I'd go even sooner on Robert . 3 years left if he has another 5+ WAR healthy season. You can't push your luck on his health. That would be the perfect storm. Anything more than that you're looking at 2.5 to 3 years expecting him to be a great hitter and have great health. It would be nail biting time just hoping he can either equal, improve upon and play equal or more games in 2024. If he's great up until the trade deadline in 2024. I'd certainly explore a trade then if market conditions are hot.

I'm not advocating much else except making sure you hit on Cease and Robert .

We can then revisit what else is going on as far as how the rest of the prospects are developing in the system or other internal changes.

[Balta1701]

43 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Eh.....I still think you are inferring alot of things that are questionable.

For example, let's assume we are at the point of where pitchers and catchers report and let's say Getz successfully called Elias bluff and Elias is now offering the 1) LH savage OFer of Getz choice (Cowser or Hjerstad, Getz likely prefers the former), plus 2) the IFer that Getz wanted (Ortiz/Norby) and 3) he's finally agreed to SP Cade Povich as the third piece.

95%+ of this board would take that deal and such a deal would also thoroughly repudiate you and baseball galaly's theory that Cease is only worth a single back end Top 100 player plus some lottery tickets.

Suppose Getz still says no and the reason is because he still wants a pitching heavy deal, not a pitcher as the third piece deal.

That a trade didn't go down doesn't necessarily mean we overvalued Cease, it could also mean that Getz/JR simply has the wrong priorities in terms of what they want in the return. 

You will be correct only if 1) he isn't traded by ST AND 2) our insiders uniformly confirm that no one offered 2 Top 100 players (or equivalent) in any type of combination. You gotta satisfy both elements.

But Getz saying I only want pitching and someone offering a treasure trove of bats doesn't mean you are right. It means our FO and owner are stupid. 

In other words you now realize there’s a real chance I’m right and Cease will not be going anywhere this offseason, but you need to move the goalposts so that you don’t have to admit I was right. “Sure he didn’t move but that’s because Jimmy said the Sox were stubborn so ha!” After all, the insiders have been completely right about the Cease negotiations so far, the leaks haven’t at all been self serving.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

I'm trying to keep up, are you arguing cease doesn't have a lot of value after a guy with zero mlb experience just signed for 300+ million to pitch?

[SoCalChiSox]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

In other words you now realize there’s a real chance I’m right and Cease will not be going anywhere this offseason, but you need to move the goalposts so that you don’t have to admit I was right. “Sure he didn’t move but that’s because Jimmy said the Sox were stubborn so ha!” After all, the insiders have been completely right about the Cease negotiations so far, the leaks haven’t at all been self serving.

I'm not moving any goalposts.

You are saying no deal by ST= no one offered 2 Top 100s. 

I'm saying someone could easily offer 2 Top 100s plus useful pieces and Getz could still say no because he's stubbornly stuck on this stupid pitching only s%*#.

All we need to is simply ask Jimmy/Harold/Pal/fathom/macsandz etc when we get to ST...hey did people offer 2 Top 100s (or equivalent) or not?

If the answer is no you win, if the answer is yes, you don't. Simple. 

The fact that the owner is unwilling to pay cash for pitching doesn't mean we overvalued Cease. We're artificially limiting ourselves and it's distorting everything. 

With regard to leaks being self serving, certainly media reports and stuff from reporters like Morosi, Rosenthal, Heyman etc can be self serving but internal stuff on this site from our own insiders isn't self serving. No other FO cares about what is posted on a board, i.e. Jimmy and Harold etc have no reason to say "yeah X team offered two Top 100s but they weren't both pitchers so Getz said no" if its not true. 

Right now the following teams all need or really want starting pitching NYY, BOS, BAL, TEX, SFG, STL, CHC, SD and its possible LAD and CIN might still be in the game too, although the latter is less likely. 

There aren't 8-10 good quality SPs on the trade or FA market. There might be about 4 or 5 at most. 

Edited January 2 by SoCalChiSox

[Balta1701]

26 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

I'm not moving any goalposts.

You are saying no deal by ST= no one offered 2 Top 100s. 

I'm saying someone could easily offer 2 Top 100s plus useful pieces and Getz could still say no because he's stubbornly stuck on this stupid pitching only s%*#.

All we need to is simply ask Jimmy/Harold/Pal/fathom/macsandz etc when we get to ST...hey did people offer 2 Top 100s (or equivalent) or not?

If the answer is no you win, if the answer is yes, you don't. Simple. 

The fact that the owner is unwilling to pay cash for pitching doesn't mean we overvalued Cease. We're artificially limiting ourselves and it's distorting everything. 

With regard to leaks being self serving, certainly media reports and stuff from reporters like Morosi, Rosenthal, Heyman etc can be self serving but internal stuff on this site from our own insiders isn't self serving. No other FO cares about what is posted on a board, i.e. Jimmy and Harold etc have no reason to say "yeah X team offered two Top 100s but they weren't both pitchers so Getz said no" if its not true. 

Right now the following teams all need or really want starting pitching NYY, BOS, BAL, TEX, SFG, STL, CHC, SD and its possible LAD and CIN might still be in the game too, although the latter is less likely. 

There aren't 8-10 good quality SPs on the trade or FA market. There might be about 4 or 5 at most. 

And we will certainly believe those guys as long as you get to tell Balta he’s wrong. After all; it’s not like any of them insisted that Cease was 90% likely to be moved this offseason and covering their precious reputation. 

[Tnetennba]

47 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

In other words you now realize there’s a real chance I’m right and Cease will not be going anywhere this offseason, but you need to move the goalposts so that you don’t have to admit I was right. “Sure he didn’t move but that’s because Jimmy said the Sox were stubborn so ha!” After all, the insiders have been completely right about the Cease negotiations so far, the leaks haven’t at all been self serving.

I avoid engaging you when you're on one of your typical crusades to prove yourself right, but this is bullshit.

Getz holding out for X does not mean Y wasn't offered. For all we know Baltimore is offering 2 top 100 positional prospects, and JR's mandate is to get pitching in return. You do not know what is actually being offered. If Cease isn't traded by Feb 13, it could be for MULTIPLE reasons, only one of which would prove you correct. You don't get to claim you were proven right when we will likely never know what was or wasn't offered if a trade doesn't happen.

But of course, everyone else is moving the goalposts. JFC dude, do better.

This of course will be construed as getting personal, so feel free not to respond. I certainly won't engage with your inevitable response. 

[Bob Sacamano]

5 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

I avoid engaging you when you're on one of your typical crusades to prove yourself right, but this is bullshit.

Getz holding out for X does not mean Y wasn't offered. For all we know Baltimore is offering 2 top 100 positional prospects, and JR's mandate is to get pitching in return. You do not know what is actually being offered. If Cease isn't traded by Feb 13, it could be for MULTIPLE reasons, only one of which would prove you correct. You don't get to claim you were proven right when we will likely never know what was or wasn't offered if a trade doesn't happen.

But of course, everyone else is moving the goalposts. JFC dude, do better.

This of course will be construed as getting personal, so feel free not to respond. I certainly won't engage with your inevitable response. 

It’s a shame we can’t ignore admins.

[Chicago White Sox]

56 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm trying to keep up, are you arguing cease doesn't have a lot of value after a guy with zero mlb experience just signed for 300+ million to pitch?

Balta believes he’s worth one backend top 100 prospect (50 FV guy) and some filler…maybe.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Who cares

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Who cares

?

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

?

Both sides spending a stupid amount of time arguing hypothetical situations. How about we wait another 6 weeks and save everyone the effort. This thread has become useless because these endless arguments are obscuring any small updates that are scattered throughout the rest of the thread.

[Tony]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Both sides spending a stupid amount of time arguing hypothetical situations. How about we wait another 6 weeks and save everyone the effort. This thread has become useless because these endless arguments are obscuring any small updates that are scattered throughout the rest of the thread.

When you're right...you're right. 

[SoCalChiSox]

39 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

And we will certainly believe those guys as long as you get to tell Balta he’s wrong. After all; it’s not like any of them insisted that Cease was 90% likely to be moved this offseason and covering their precious reputation. 

LMAO.

OK riddle me this then Balta since you are impugning the integrity of our board insiders (Jimmy, Harold etc) and you have declared in advance that you will not believe any of their reports once we get to ST as to what was previously offered to us...

Suppose the real reason no deal went down was because Getz was offered either two Top 100 bats or one Top 100 bat and one Top 100 pitcher but he said no my boss wants two Top 100 pitchers so he turned it down and for whatever reason a three team deal didn't work because the 3rd team that had the young SP prospects didnt like what whatever the 2nd team (BAL, NYY or whoever) was offering in terms of bats. 

How would you like us to be able to prove this to you if our own board insider reports arent sufficient?

You think Getz is gonna hold a press conference at ST and say "oh yeah we were offered savages but I don't want that because I like Limp Dick baseball and my owner is too cheap to purchase starting pitching on the open market"?

Like if you aren't going to trust our insiders reports and if media reports are also self serving what realistic and reasonable method are we to use to be able to demonstrate to you that the reason for no trade was X instead of Y?

I'm sure you have a good faith and reasonable answer and I'd love to hear it.

I'll hang up and listen.

 

Edited January 2 by SoCalChiSox

[MEANS]

54 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

It’s a shame we can’t ignore admins.

then they'd all be on ignore!!!!!

[Snopek]

46 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Both sides spending a stupid amount of time arguing hypothetical situations. How about we wait another 6 weeks and save everyone the effort. This thread has become useless because these endless arguments are obscuring any small updates that are scattered throughout the rest of the thread.

I like some of the back and forth on hypotheticals because it's interesting to hear different perspectives, but that all takes a backseat now that we're finally getting to the important stuff: which posters will end up being right and which ones will need to admit the other ones were right.

[Snowy Demon]

If this is to be believed, this is a significant development.  

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/krall-reds-likely-done-with-major-moves-for-the-offseason.html

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

7 minutes ago, Snowy Demon said:

If this is to be believed, this is a significant development.  

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/krall-reds-likely-done-with-major-moves-for-the-offseason.html

That’s a super weak offseason for a hopefully division contender.

[Chicago White Sox]

8 minutes ago, Snowy Demon said:

If this is to be believed, this is a significant development.  

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/krall-reds-likely-done-with-major-moves-for-the-offseason.html

Montas took them out of the Cease market.

[Snopek]

1 minute ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

That’s a super weak offseason for a hopefully division contender.

Yeah, Cease interest or not, it would've been nice to see them push more chips in.

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Montas took them out of the Cease market.

They’ll be back in July (if we don’t trade Cease in the offseason).

[Whisox05]

 

[Bob Sacamano]

4 minutes ago, Whisox05 said:

 

Zzzzzzzzzzz