Tnetennba Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Snowy Demon said: This is popular and seemingly very logical statement. It is also false statement. Texas and Arizona had 18th and 20th ranked staffs for ERA, respectively. As for WHIP, Texas was 12th and Arizona 19th. Tampa, Milwaukee, Minnesota, LAD and Baltimore/Philadelphia had best WHIP for playoff teams. Milwaukee, Toronto, Tampa, Minnesota and Baltimore had best ERA. The post season is a crapshoot. AZ got really hot and Texas' offense carried them to victory. They also feel like an outlier. Probably need a larger sample size to to declare that a false statement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: The Red Sox could end up with Montgomery and really, I don’t think they will be reactionary to this move. Boston is the 5th team in the division and they are far off too. I have said I do think they could be the most desperate team for Cease but at the same time, I don’t think he makes any sense for them. As @Chicago White Sox has said, your best case scenario is Snell is an Angel. I think Boston is out of money for reasons unknown and are unlikely to add Snell or Montgomery. But yes, the Angels snagging Snell would be the best outcome for us followed by the Giants. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Snopek said: There's really nothing to back this up, though, so it's one of those philosophies that you can spin however you want. Minnesota and Tampa's good pitching didn't get them very far in the playoffs. You build the best roster you can with the resources you have available and hope for a hot stretch in the playoffs. I think it'd be stupid for the O's not to upgrade their rotation, but I also wouldn't assume an early exit if they didn't. Agreed that of course you need both and you build the roster overall as best you can. But with the higher bust rate and injury rate for pitchers, teams need more shots at the good ones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, ptatc said: Yes. That is only this offseason. Building a team is more than just one trade. Obviously…but that doesn’t diminish the need to get a good return for your few pieces. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolle Tide Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, GreatScott82 said: Sounds like Ortiz is one of the better defensive 2B in the minors. Would love a package centered around Mayo and Ortiz. He’s mentioned as a plus plus defender at SS. The only question was if his offense would play more than a utility player. He’s drastically improved over the past 2 years gaining 80 points in batting average and 100 points in OPS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said: I think Boston is out of money for reasons unknown and are unlikely to add Snell or Montgomery. But yes, the Angels snagging Snell would be the best outcome for us followed by the Giants. I think the Giants are a dark horse team for Cease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Tnetennba said: The post season is a crapshoot. AZ got really hot and Texas' offense carried them to victory. They also feel like an outlier. Probably need a larger sample size to to declare that a false statement. True. Looking only at a single year doesn't really tell much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Sports Guy said: Obviously…but that doesn’t diminish the need to get a good return for your few pieces. Yes, a good return will speed up the process and help but need is the wrong word to use. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: But if he signs there, it could be an issue for the Cease market. I think most teams will be hesitant to give Blake Snell $200M+. I think it takes a special kind of desperation like with the Angels losing Ohtani and the Giants being unable to convince anyone from the US to take their money. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: Well, they traded for Bradish, who wasn’t very highly regarded and have developed him into a very good starter. They have several very intriguing arms in the minors as well. So, further development could come from there. Obviously they developed GRod and Means is a guy who wasn’t a top 30 prospect and he has turned out to be very solid. Even Kremer is a guy that most teams could use. Most teams don’t have 4 starters better than Kremer, much less 5. Hell, some teams don’t have 2 or 3 starters better. This is all to say that they have done a very good job of developing guys and only Rodríguez was a top guy. All of that said, even if McDermott, Povich, Johnson, et al become something, they are likely of little help in 2024 and the team needs to prioritize winning, so it’s time to step it up and get a better pitcher for right now. I’m not saying they need to all be top 100 mlb prospects but I don’t see much in the Orioles farm system in terms of starting pitching. It’s somehow even weaker on the pitching side than the Sox and that’s saying a lot. Now that they’re no longer drafting in the top 5 every year like they did for 4 consecutive years, it’s also going to be much more difficult to backfill the farm system as guys graduate. I don’t know, I think the approach of load up on all position players is flawed for a team that can’t sign a quality free agent starting pitcher due to monetary restrictions and also seems unwilling to trade from their prospect depth for a quality starting pitcher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy Demon Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, ptatc said: This data is for the regular season. What is the data during the playoffs? As I said hitting gets teams there, the better pitching wins in the postseason. Exactly my point here. No one really knows Cease is a good post season pitcher or not after one start. Same goes for Bradish, Rodriguez, Woo, Steele or anyone like that. Can anyone really say Texas or Arizona had so much better pitching than say LAD or Atlanta prior to the playoff? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolle Tide Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said: Please be smarter than the other dope who couldn't understand why it's good for the Sox to have the Yankees involved in trade discussions. I’d like to get Cease but the other guy really wants him. I posted that a Yankee deal could make way more sense if they can get Hampton and Warren plus. They are superior to McDermott and Povich. But, I suppose the other pieces would determine the better package. What if Getz could get both of those guys and Ortiz to play SS. How would that compare to the Yankees 2 and 1 of Jones/Dominquez/or Pereira? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: I think the Giants are a dark horse team for Cease. I think they could be…but I do like the an old fashioned AL East bidding war where Elias ultimately accepts defeat and gives up Basallo & Mayo for Cease and Gavin “The Prince of Maryland” Sheets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: I’m not saying they need to all be top 100 mlb prospects but I don’t see much in the Orioles farm system in terms of starting pitching. It’s somehow even weaker on the pitching side than the Sox and that’s saying a lot. Now that they’re no longer drafting in the top 5 every year like they did for 4 consecutive years, it’s also going to be much more difficult to backfill the farm system as guys graduate. I don’t know, I think the approach of load up on all position players is flawed for a team that can’t sign a quality free agent starting pitcher due to monetary restrictions and also seems unwilling to trade from their prospect depth for a quality starting pitcher. https://x.com/baseballamerica/status/1741460448275251206?s=46&t=G3On-_LleGmZce-r3ClVZA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: I’m not saying they need to all be top 100 mlb prospects but I don’t see much in the Orioles farm system in terms of starting pitching. It’s somehow even weaker on the pitching side than the Sox and that’s saying a lot. Now that they’re no longer drafting in the top 5 every year like they did for 4 consecutive years, it’s also going to be much more difficult to backfill the farm system as guys graduate. I don’t know, I think the approach of load up on all position players is flawed for a team that can’t sign a quality free agent starting pitcher due to monetary restrictions and also seems unwilling to trade from their prospect depth for a quality starting pitcher. How high do the Rays, Dodgers, Cardinals, Astros, et al…usually draft? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said: I think they could be…but I do like the an old fashioned AL East bidding war where Elias ultimately accepts defeat and gives up Basallo & Mayo for Cease and Gavin “The Prince of Maryland” Sheets. While you are in neverneverland, make sure you say hello to Peter Pan. ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: https://x.com/baseballamerica/status/1741460448275251206?s=46&t=G3On-_LleGmZce-r3ClVZA If you truly believe that then there’s no point in trading for Cease and best of luck to ya Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: If you truly believe that then there’s no point in trading for Cease and best of luck to ya Truly believe what? The data is the data. Do you think BA is making it up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, Snowy Demon said: This is popular and seemingly very logical statement. It is also false statement. Texas and Arizona had 18th and 20th ranked staffs for ERA, respectively. As for WHIP, Texas was 12th and Arizona 19th. Tampa, Milwaukee, Minnesota, LAD and Baltimore/Philadelphia had best WHIP for playoff teams. Milwaukee, Toronto, Tampa, Minnesota and Baltimore had best ERA. 2022: Houston #1 pitching WAR, Philly #3 2021: Braves were #14, Houston was #11 (White Sox were #1 lmao) 2020: Dodgers #5, Rays #8 2019: Washington #5, Houston #3 2018: Boston #9, Dodgers #2 2017: Houston #7, Dodgers #6 (Asterisk it) 2016: Cubs #4, Cleveland #8 2015: Royals #14, Mets #7 2014: SF #26, Royals #9 2013: St. Louis #8, Boston #14 Winners median ranking is 7.5 Losers median ranking is also 7.5 So having a top 10 staff is a pretty good thing to have. 2023 was an outlier. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Sports Guy said: Truly believe what? The data is the data. Do you think BA is making it up? If you truly believe they have a top 5 farm system on the pitching side then why bother trading for Cease? Just give DL hall, Povich and the gang a go and let’s see how it goes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, Snowy Demon said: Exactly my point here. No one really knows Cease is a good post season pitcher or not after one start. Same goes for Bradish, Rodriguez, Woo, Steele or anyone like that. Can anyone really say Texas or Arizona had so much better pitching than say LAD or Atlanta prior to the playoff? That's why I think teams need to focus on pitching. It is more of a in known the hitting for various reasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolle Tide Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: I’m not saying they need to all be top 100 mlb prospects but I don’t see much in the Orioles farm system in terms of starting pitching. It’s somehow even weaker on the pitching side than the Sox and that’s saying a lot. Now that they’re no longer drafting in the top 5 every year like they did for 4 consecutive years, it’s also going to be much more difficult to backfill the farm system as guys graduate. I don’t know, I think the approach of load up on all position players is flawed for a team that can’t sign a quality free agent starting pitcher due to monetary restrictions and also seems unwilling to trade from their prospect depth for a quality starting pitcher. Well they have the #22, #32, and #34 picks. The Orioles seem to be really good at drafting. Remember Henderson wasn’t a 1st rounder, neither was Mayo, Ortiz, or Norby. I realize getting Hampton and Warren are better than McDermott and Povich but I don’t think it’s as bad as you think. Also they ranked 4th in Farm System Statcast Pitching Rankings by Baseball America. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-mlb-farm-system-statcast-pitching-rankings/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: How high do the Rays, Dodgers, Cardinals, Astros, et al…usually draft? Prior to the recent run of high picks that landed them Rutschman, Kjerstad, Cowser and Holliday, back in 2010-2012 the Orioles had theee straight years of top 4 picks and landed Machado, Bundy, and Gausman. Awesome, great picks overall. But then the big league team got good again and didn’t pick inside the top 20 for awhile and this is what they picked in the first round over those next years: Hunter Harvey, Josh Hart, DJ Stewart, Ryan Mountcastle, Cody Sedlock. Mountcastle is the only one I ever heard of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 @Sports Guy - What conclusions are you gathering from this Statcast data point? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: If you truly believe they have a top 5 farm system on the pitching side then why bother trading for Cease? Just give DL hall, Povich and the gang a go and let’s see how it goes. That’s not even remotely what I said or even what that ranking is saying. That ranking is about statcast data. Thats it. The Os MiL pitchers also ranked 3rd in the league in stuff+. Going back to your post..:you said you don’t see much there. You said they won’t pick high anymore, so it’s tough to add those guys. You seem to be questioning how they are doing things pitching wise. Yet, advanced metrics love what they are doing. Advanced metrics says they have a lot of promising arms. When you hear pitchers talk about the Os development, they talk about all the info and technology they are exposed to. Guys who have been here pre Elias and now rave about the differences in communication and development. The best pitching teams in the sport don’t draft high either. They just know how to develop. Saying this is simply a push back on your post that just isn’t factually true. Now, what they do lack is a ML ready arm that can step in right now and be relied upon. That is why I want them to get Cease AND another young arm and deal Kremer. But the thought that they don’t have any pitching in the minors is just wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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