WestEddy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 14 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said: Balta explained why fangraphs overrates his 2023, but nobody wants to listen. Nobody? Balta has explained at least a few times, and I've read each one. Makes sense. It has been explained back that other GMs have leaked that they don't consider whatever issue Cease had in 2023 to be uncorrectable. Balta has even said that if Cease has another 2023, that pitching coach should be fired, leading me to believe that he thinks Cease certainly has the talent to produce another 2022 type season. I think a few of you are stuck on being contrarian, which is fine, but it doesn't really go anywhere when the attitude is "I said a thing, and therefore, must never move off of that thing." I think Cease will be traded for a package most of us like, and there will be a bunch of face-saving comments, like "of course Baltimore wasn't paying that", or "well, yeah, the Yankees were desperate". 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, ptatc said: It always matters as more teams bidding drives up the price. Teams get desperate if they determine they need upgrades to win. They are willing to bid more to get the player. This is true whether it's money or prospects. If Baltimore is just going to give their best offer at the beginning of the negotiations and never waver, it's less likely they will get him. They might have the best offer but it's less likely. Yep, I thought this was common sense but I guess not… ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirmin' for Yermin Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Jett and Baty please 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliSoxFanViaSWside Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 33 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said: Are you just saying things or have you maybe heard this? I think he's just having a little fun poking the bear. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harold's Leg Lift Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, fathom said: It would be shocking to me to see Stearns do that, especially since it seems the Mets aren’t going to spend big this offseason. I've been thinking about this. They've been after some other big money free agents this off season so they're probably looking at the big picture. They'd get Cease cheap for two years then would likely be the front runners to sign him long term and the Mets certainly aren't scared of Boras or spending big money on free agents. Afterall they are the Mets. Good luck trying to figure them out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, WestEddy said: Nobody? Balta has explained at least a few times, and I've read each one. Makes sense. It has been explained back that other GMs have leaked that they don't consider whatever issue Cease had in 2023 to be uncorrectable. Balta has even said that if Cease has another 2023, that pitching coach should be fired, leading me to believe that he thinks Cease certainly has the talent to produce another 2022 type season. I think a few of you are stuck on being contrarian, which is fine, but it doesn't really go anywhere when the attitude is "I said a thing, and therefore, must never move off of that thing." I think Cease will be traded for a package most of us like, and there will be a bunch of face-saving comments, like "of course Baltimore wasn't paying that", or "well, yeah, the Yankees were desperate". If it turns out the Yankees or Mets were desperate and make a loaded move for Cease that is way better for the White Sox than what I expect - I fully anticipate lots of people tagging me and telling me I'm wrong, and I would definitely deserve that. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Quin said: But this doesn’t matter. I was told that there is no difference between 5 teams being interested in a player and only 2. The return will not be impacted whatsoever. Edited January 5 by WhiteSox2023 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Harold's Leg Lift said: I've been thinking about this. They've been after some other big money free agents this off season so they're probably looking at the big picture. They'd get Cease cheap for two years then would likely be the front runners to sign him long term and the Mets certainly aren't scared of Boras or spending big money on free agents. Afterall they are the Mets. Good luck trying to figure them out. Which FAs have they been after? As far as what I've read, they've just been quiet. Were they in on Ohtani or something like that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Harold's Leg Lift said: I've been thinking about this. They've been after some other big money free agents this off season so they're probably looking at the big picture. They'd get Cease cheap for two years then would likely be the front runners to sign him long term and the Mets certainly aren't scared of Boras or spending big money on free agents. Afterall they are the Mets. Good luck trying to figure them out. I’ve heard some speculation they’re going to let Alonso go (probably trade him at the deadline if they’re out of it) and go all out for Soto. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harold's Leg Lift Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 BTW- does this mean I know more then Ken Rosenthal? If so, it's a tall midget award but I guess I'll take it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said: Or, all 4 teams want Cease and all submit offers for him and Getz gets the pick of the best offer? And may even then try to get the teams to up their offers slightly? You sure seem to think it’s your way or the highway, as if you were a planted bug on Getz’s cell phone. And you sure seem to not be able to read what I said. I’m simply saying that more teams doesn’t mean offers rise. You guys have zero idea to what level these teams are willing to go. Your best insider says the Yankees are getting more aggressive. Zero doubt he’s right about that. But what does it mean? There was no elaboration from there. That could mean so many different things. It could mean they are putting an “offer you can’t refuse” On the table Or it could mean that they have gone from luke warm to more engaging. Just have no idea. We have seen the national media say team X is “possibly” in on it. What does that mean? Is that a yes, a no or a well it makes sense so maybe? And btw, the same can be said about the Os. It’s lazy for these writers to just say, well the Os have the best prospects so they make the most sense. That’s wrong. The Os are definitely not putting their top 3 guys on the board but if they also aren’t putting Kjerstad or Cowser on the board, teams can easily compete/beat their offer. None of this reporting is solid. It’s all a bunch of conjecture, maybes and hearsay. The only actual info we have heard, if it’s true, is the Cinci trade package and that was obviously turned down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Balta1701 said: Which FAs have they been after? As far as what I've read, they've just been quiet. Were they in on Ohtani or something like that? Yamamoto Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Why are you so sure they’re not putting Mayo or Basallo in a deal? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, fathom said: I’ve heard some speculation they’re going to let Alonso go (probably trade him at the deadline if they’re out of it) and go all out for Soto. Cubs wanted Alonso but either the Mets were asking too much for him or Hoyer was prospect hugging like Elias, like he has been all offseason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T R U Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 33 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: His decline in 2023 was real, and is somewhat covered up by Fangraphs. Dylan Cease has a high K rate and a high walk rate - the high walk rate prevents him from being an elite pitcher unless he can also produce weak contact. Because Fangraphs doesn't take contact quality into account very much in terms of calculating FIP/WAR, Fangraphs drops this as a factor in how it evaluates him. In 2022, Dylan Cease was elite at preventing hard contact. This makes sense given his K-rate, he generated a lot of swings and misses and no one hit him hard. In 2023, Dylan Cease lost 1 mph from his fastball and dropped from the top 10% of the league in hard-hit rate to the bottom 50% of the league. That's a big change - Dylan Cease was allowing a ton of hard contact in 2023 that he avoided in 2022. He kept up the K rate, but when people made contact with him they hit him hard. Because Fangraphs doesn't take this into account, it decides that "allowing hard/weak contact" is all lumped into BABIP, Fangraphs underestimates how good Cease was in 2022 and says "Dylan Cease was only a top 10 pitcher in MLB" when we all saw a guy who was deserving of the #2 spot in the Cy Young race. Fangraphs says that Cease's best season was 2021 since it had his highest K-rate, and we all know that's wrong. However, it also then over-evaluates his 2023 performance by saying the hard contact he gave up was just bad luck, when he really took a big step back last year in what made him elite in 2022. The 5 year track record to me shows a guy with a high K rate, a high walk rate, a very reliable starter in taking the ball, but a pretty high variance in what I will get from him next year in terms of performance. If you think you can get the 2022 Cease out of him, then he's worth everything you trade for him and more. If you don't....well I'll stop there. Dylan Cease hard hit rate 41.6% Career 38.1% Gerritt Cole hard hit rate 39.5% Career 39.7% I think he’s fine Balta. We all know 2022 was an amazing season and I don’t expect Cease to have a 2.2 ERA every year. He’s fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Which FAs have they been after? As far as what I've read, they've just been quiet. Were they in on Ohtani or something like that? Yamamoto Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, fathom said: Why are you so sure they’re not putting Mayo or Basallo in a deal? Hmmm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, fathom said: Why are you so sure they’re not putting Mayo or Basallo in a deal? He has Elias’s phone tapped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 If you are selling your house and you have 10 contracts and 8 of them are for less than 400K and 2 of them are at 500k, do you care about the other 8 offers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Balta1701 said: I fully anticipate lots of people tagging me and telling me I'm wrong, and I would definitely deserve that. I'm not sure who's arguing what, any more. Yes, Cease had a 2023 that was down from 2022. I think we agree that the talent is there to get back to 2022 Cease. I don't think you're wrong. I don't know the WAR models as well as you do, but you sure sound like you know what you're talking about, and I don't have the wherewithal to disprove you. But I think the disconnect comes in intrinsic value vs. market. Yes, if a team decides they don't have enough pitching, Cease is the answer, and decides to do whatever it takes to make that happen, then that's his market value. Dylan Cease has not had as tight a floor and ceiling as [insert agreed-upon ace, here]. But I get the distinct idea that everybody here will argue that the White Sox had horrible culture, their leadership was for s%*#, pitch-coaching, catching, conditioning, stats support was all spotty, at best. So take Cease out of the chaos and drop him in LA or on the Braves, or a team who can nurture their pitching, and I think we agree he can tighten up. Nobody's going to get a discount because they have to buy him an iPad, and their pitching coach has to fly to his hometown a few times in January. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rey21 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Sports Guy said: If you are selling your house and you have 10 contracts and 8 of them are for less than 400K and 2 of them are at 500k, do you care about the other 8 offers? What if Getz thinks less highly of the Orioles prospects that their offering than their fans do? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteSox2023 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: And you sure seem to not be able to read what I said. I’m simply saying that more teams doesn’t mean offers rise. You guys have zero idea to what level these teams are willing to go. Your best insider says the Yankees are getting more aggressive. Zero doubt he’s right about that. But what does it mean? There was no elaboration from there. That could mean so many different things. It could mean they are putting an “offer you can’t refuse” On the table Or it could mean that they have gone from luke warm to more engaging. Just have no idea. We have seen the national media say team X is “possibly” in on it. What does that mean? Is that a yes, a no or a well it makes sense so maybe? And btw, the same can be said about the Os. It’s lazy for these writers to just say, well the Os have the best prospects so they make the most sense. That’s wrong. The Os are definitely not putting their top 3 guys on the board but if they also aren’t putting Kjerstad or Cowser on the board, teams can easily compete/beat their offer. None of this reporting is solid. It’s all a bunch of conjecture, maybes and hearsay. The only actual info we have heard, if it’s true, is the Cinci trade package and that was obviously turned down. Sure is funny how insiders on this board have called out specific team interest escalating, and an article naming that exact team pops up a day or two later. This has happened with both the Yankees and the Mets in the past few days. Edited January 5 by WhiteSox2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said: Cubs wanted Alonso but either the Mets were asking too much for him or Hoyer was prospect hugging like Elias, like he has been all offseason. Mets asked for Horton Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, fathom said: Why are you so sure they’re not putting Mayo or Basallo in a deal? There is a very good argument that Basallo’s ceiling is higher than anyone in the organization outside of maybe Gunnar Henderson. It would not be surprising at all if he’s the #1 prospect in baseball this time next year. (Assuming his prospect status is still eligible which is likely) Mayo also has an incredibly high ceiling. The Os put a huge emphasis on what these guys do at the plate in terms of walks, power, EV numbers, etc…at very young ages, these guys have produced at a very high level and they can and do play premium positions. These are not the type of guys Elias will or should trade, at least not for what is available. They aren’t untouchable but the guys you would trade them for just aren’t available. Elias said this offseason, in so many words, that he has multiple untouchable prospects. We know Holliday is one. Hell, we have heard they won’t even trade Cowser or Kjerstad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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