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3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If you are selling your house and you have 10 contracts and 8 of them are for less than 400K and 2 of them are at 500k, do you care about the other 8 offers?

Yes because the original offer of the 2 @500k may have been at 400 k and they had to raise it to compete.

You are treating the negotiations like each team had one offer and only one offer. That's not reality. The current package from each team is changing and the offers today will not be the same as tomorrow. 

More teams in, the more competition. If the Yankees sign snell the offers may go down as there is less competition. 

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3 minutes ago, Rey21 said:

What if Getz thinks less highly of the Orioles prospects that their offering than their fans do? 

Then he doesn’t consider the Os.  My point isn’t team specific. It’s just a general point. He absolutely may not like the Os prospects but is using the industry love for them to his advantage to drive up the price. 

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3 minutes ago, T R U said:

Dylan Cease hard hit rate 41.6%

Career 38.1%
 

Gerritt Cole hard hit rate 39.5%
Career 39.7%
 

I think he’s fine Balta. We all know 2022 was an amazing season and I don’t expect Cease to have a 2.2 ERA every year. He’s fine. 

Comparing Dylan Cease's hard hit rate in 2023 to his career numbers is the problem - in 2022, when he was excellent, it was 31.2%. When his hard hit rate in the other years has been 40%+, it's given him an Expected ERA of around 4.

if we compare that to Gerrit Cole, we see a guy with a similarly elevated K rate to Cease (although notably dropped off in 2023), but we also see a guy who for the last 5 seasons has had a walk rate of under 2.1/9 - compared to Dylan Cease's 3.84 BB/9 (career, and comparable numbers over the last 3 seasons) that's a big difference.

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7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If you are selling your house and you have 10 contracts and 8 of them are for less than 400K and 2 of them are at 500k, do you care about the other 8 offers?

No one with a lower offer on a house has ever upped their offer because they want the house badly, even if they were initially trying to get a better deal?

Edited by WhiteSox2023
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5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If you are selling your house and you have 10 contracts and 8 of them are for less than 400K and 2 of them are at 500k, do you care about the other 8 offers?

I've been in Real Estate, and if you know you're getting multiple offers, you inform everybody that there will be multiple offers, and you hand them back, and tell them to come back with their best, most serious offer, then you pick the best situation. 

Dude who thinks he's going to low-ball, then spend 3 weeks back and forth may get serious. 

I can't imagine that Getz has fallen in love with one prospect on one team, and will keep going back to try to get them to up their offer. 

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1 minute ago, ptatc said:

Yes because the original offer of the 2 @500k may have been at 400 k and they had to raise it to compete.

You are treating the negotiations like each team had one offer and only one offer. That's not reality. The current package from each team is changing and the offers today will not be the same as tomorrow. 

More teams in, the more competition. If the Yankees sign snell the offers may go down as there is less competition. 

No, I’m saying those are 10 offers you are looking at right now. Are you engaging on the other 8?  Are you going back to them to say, do you want to raise your offer?

Because I can tell you, when you are that far off, normally you don’t do that. What you do is get the 2 really good offers to go against each other but the others are just on the periphery and not really involved.

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4 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Yes because the original offer of the 2 @500k may have been at 400 k and they had to raise it to compete.

You are treating the negotiations like each team had one offer and only one offer. That's not reality. The current package from each team is changing and the offers today will not be the same as tomorrow. 

More teams in, the more competition. If the Yankees sign snell the offers may go down as there is less competition. 

Exactly.  Thanks.  I don’t get what is so tough to understand.  He’s acting like teams only ever have “a final offer”.  His house buying analogy is absolutely terrible.

Edited by WhiteSox2023
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Just now, WestEddy said:

I've been in Real Estate, and if you know you're getting multiple offers, you inform everybody that there will be multiple offers, and you hand them back, and tell them to come back with their best, most serious offer, then you pick the best situation. 

Dude who thinks he's going to low-ball, then spend 3 weeks back and forth may get serious. 

I can't imagine that Getz has fallen in love with one prospect on one team, and will keep going back to try to get them to up their offer. 

I’m in RE too..and you are correct. My point is that you are at your best and final type stage…in that scenario, you aren’t considering the other 8.  You are considering 2.

And the point is, just because those other 8 are involved, that doesn’t mean the other 2 are worried about them or that the other 2 are increasing their offer because of those 8. Hell, they don’t even know those 8 exist in some cases.

 

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Just now, Sports Guy said:

No, I’m saying those are 10 offers you are looking at right now. Are you engaging on the other 8?  Are you going back to them to say, do you want to raise your offer?

Because I can tell you, when you are that far off, normally you don’t do that. What you do is get the 2 really good offers to go against each other but the others are just on the periphery and not really involved.

Yes you are engaging the other 8 in an attempt to get them to up their offer. Maybe they were trying to low ball you and get you to come down. 

You continue to engage everyone who has expressed interest. They may not raise their offer but you continue to try until they tell you they are out. 

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3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, I’m saying those are 10 offers you are looking at right now. Are you engaging on the other 8?  Are you going back to them to say, do you want to raise your offer?

Because I can tell you, when you are that far off, normally you don’t do that. What you do is get the 2 really good offers to go against each other but the others are just on the periphery and not really involved.

Those lower offers could jump up at any time to match the higher offers, depending on how interested the potential buyers are in the house.

Edited by WhiteSox2023
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1 minute ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Exactly.  Thanks.  I don’t get what is so tough to understand.  He’s acting like teams only ever have “a final offer”.  His house buying analogy is absolutely terrible.

When you aren’t even in the vicinity of other offers, you really aren’t a serious buyer. 

 

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Just now, ptatc said:

Yes you are engaging the other 8 in an attempt to get them to up their offer. Maybe they were trying to low ball you and get you to come down. 

You continue to engage everyone who has expressed interest. They may not raise their offer but you continue to try until they tell you they are out. 
 

No you dont..at least not when you are on the final stages. You do it early on for sure..you tell them look, you aren’t close to being in this so you have to s%*# or get off the pot.

But if you are at decision time And 75% of your bidders aren’t even close, you are now engaging with the other 25% to get a deal done. You aren’t wasting time going back to everyone because you fear in the meantime something else comes along for the 25% and they move on.

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m in RE too..and you are correct. My point is that you are at your best and final type stage…in that scenario, you aren’t considering the other 8.  You are considering 2.

And the point is, just because those other 8 are involved, that doesn’t mean the other 2 are worried about them or that the other 2 are increasing their offer because of those 8. Hell, they don’t even know those 8 exist in some cases.

 

There is no reason to think that this is "best and final" stage yet. Some of the competition may be waiting on Snell to accept or decline their offer which will change their offer to the Sox for Cease. 

For example the Yankees may lose snell to the giants. Now they really want Cease and add another prospect to the deal. 

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2 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Those lower offers could jump up at any time to match the higher offers, depending on how interested the potential buyers are in the house.

Have you ever bought or sold a home?

I have bought 3 and sold about 45.

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Just now, Sports Guy said:

No you dont..at least not when you are on the final stages. You do it early on for sure..you tell them look, you aren’t close to being in this so you have to s%*# or get off the pot.

But if you are at decision time And 75% of your bidders aren’t even close, you are now engaging with the other 25% to get a deal done. You aren’t wasting time going back to everyone because you fear in the meantime something else comes along for the 25% and they move on.

We don't know that 75% of the bidders aren't close. It sounds like from the reports that more teams are entering which implies that most are in competition. 

These reports could be wrong but it seems more likely that they are in the competition rather than out. 

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Just now, ptatc said:

There is no reason to think that this is "best and final" stage yet. Some of the competition may be waiting on Snell to accept or decline their offer which will change their offer to the Sox for Cease. 

For example the Yankees may lose snell to the giants. Now they really want Cease and add another prospect to the deal. 

I didn’t say it was at the best and final stage.

Good god, is there something in the drinking water in Chicago where people don’t read what is being said and just jump to conclusions?

All I’m saying is that we don’t know the level of where teams are willing to go for Cease and that if only 2 teams are willing to really go hard after him, it doesn’t matter that the other 5 teams exist in this.

In any negotiation, you always get down to the last few before a deal gets done. There is always someone(s) that are willing to go more than anyone else.

Im simply saying that more teams doesn’t mean that everyone is willing to go to that point. And I’m also not saying that they aren’t.

In simply saying we don’t know. 

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1 minute ago, ptatc said:

We don't know that 75% of the bidders aren't close. It sounds like from the reports that more teams are entering which implies that most are in competition. 

These reports could be wrong but it seems more likely that they are in the competition rather than out. 

?‍♂️

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3 minutes ago, fathom said:

The good news is that I think whatever fan base gets Cease, they’re 

2 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

You know how I feel about undersized players but this little runt is an exception to the rule.  This dude's a badass.  

I loved him at draft. Mainly because of the aesthetic. I think White Sox fans would adore him. Big Pedroia vibes.

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10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Comparing Dylan Cease's hard hit rate in 2023 to his career numbers is the problem - in 2022, when he was excellent, it was 31.2%. When his hard hit rate in the other years has been 40%+, it's given him an Expected ERA of around 4.

if we compare that to Gerrit Cole, we see a guy with a similarly elevated K rate to Cease (although notably dropped off in 2023), but we also see a guy who for the last 5 seasons has had a walk rate of under 2.1/9 - compared to Dylan Cease's 3.84 BB/9 (career, and comparable numbers over the last 3 seasons) that's a big difference.

Walk rate, sure. I was only talking about the hard hit stats that you were pressing.

Lets throw out Ceases 2022 hard hit percentage, his career avg is practically the same.

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1 minute ago, ptatc said:

We don't know that 75% of the bidders aren't close. It sounds like from the reports that more teams are entering which implies that most are in competition. 

These reports could be wrong but it seems more likely that they are in the competition rather than out. 

Also, his main point has always been that Elias has an idea of what Cease should cost in terms of prospects and won’t deviate from “his” price.  But not all GMs function this way and WILL up the ante to obtain a player they want, especially if there is competition for said player.

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