Cease To Padres per Passan

[Y2Jimmy0]

36 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

By the ranking systems he’d be your #2 prospect immediately. I think he has a pretty high floor. His glove will definitely play and there for he’s at least a utility INF. Most of the guys in your top 30 will end up sizzling out (not hacking on your system it’s a reality with most prospects) If he hits .725 OPS plus he’s extremely valuable at SS for you or in trade if/when Montgomery pushes him off SS. It’s great to have 19 year old phenoms ….Teams can overvalue them because of the luster….both will end up be nothing. 
 

You don’t like Ortiz as a headliner …. noted

Yeah he’s not a better prospect than Schultz and I’d take the 21-year-old Quero as well 

[WhiteSox2023]

52 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:

Noted you don’t like Ortiz 

 

If Ortiz were traded to the White Sox and hits a .725+ OPS he would be extremely valuable if not for any other reason than his trade value. So Getz could decide that he will be too old for your rebuild. It sounded like he wasn’t planning on a long rebuild is that your understanding?

How has his clock started …he got a sip?

It would depend if he’s a better player defensively. Urias could certainly play at a high level at 2B or 3B. A manager would be delighted to have multiple excellent defenders. Also Ortiz and Montgomery are both prospects. My point is there is no guarantee Montgomery is a hit. He could fizzle, be mediocre, or just an average major leaguer. The same is possible for Ortiz and pretty much every prospect that they’d get in a Cease deal.

Again, if Ortiz hits .725 plus he’s not less valuable playing second. Any GM who be interested in obtaining him would know he’s a SS. Again banking on Montgomery as a sure thing is optimistic but also a bit naive.

Based on what we know he’s unlikely to be the second piece. I acknowledge again that you don’t want him as the headliner. But, it’s also possible that you don’t get a higher ranked player in the Cease deal. 

Well, that’s only possible if you still think Ortiz is rated the 50th overall prospect in the MLB, which he won’t be due to his age once MLB updates their list.

[Springfield Soxfan]

I wanted the Sox to draft Bradfield so bad!! Hope he is part of package with Baltimore.   

[Sports Guy]

In all likelihood, the WS are not going to look to contend until 2028. The Os took 4 years, Houston took 4-5 years and Reinsdorf is like Angelos and will want to soak up profits while pointing to some bs timeline  because “the Orioles and Astros did it”.

Because of that, you guys are right…Ortiz isn’t a logical candidate for you.  Now, he still could be a valuable piece and someone you look to trade in a few years but I’m not sure that makes a ton of sense.

Now, if Reinsdorf sees the crap division and says, I want to contend in 2026, Ortiz makes a lot more sense but I tend to doubt that will happen.

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Oh man, Joey Ortiz’s old ass jumped from 50 overall to 90 overall.  I wonder why…

I’ve seen him all over the lot, depending on the party doing the ranking.  

[Eminor3rd]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

In all likelihood, the WS are not going to look to contend until 2028. The Os took 4 years, Houston took 4-5 years and Reinsdorf is like Angelos and will want to soak up profits while pointing to some bs timeline  because “the Orioles and Astros did it”.

Because of that, you guys are right…Ortiz isn’t a logical candidate for you.  Now, he still could be a valuable piece and someone you look to trade in a few years but I’m not sure that makes a ton of sense.

Now, if Reinsdorf sees the crap division and says, I want to contend in 2026, Ortiz makes a lot more sense but I tend to doubt that will happen.

Never fall into the trap of expecting Reinsdorf to make decisions with logic. He’s like my four-year old daughter, in that they both get frustrated and stubborn when they find out the world doesn’t work how they wanted it to, and sometimes grumpily go on pretending that it does even so — the only difference between him and her is that he has billions of dollars and everyone has to listen to him.

Reinsdorf sees the Royals championship window and pines for it — suck dick for 30 years, obtain exactly one good prospect for each spot on the field, have them all break out at the exactly same time and win a championship with a bottom-third payroll. That is the dream for him. It doesn’t matter that it’s a demonstrably terrible plan that failed for decades for multiple franchises before it improbably worked once, akin to watching your broke neighbor finally win big money on a scratchy lottery ticket and then deciding to mimic his life decisions, Reinsdorf is going to press on pretending it makes sense no matter how much evidence to the contrary that is shoved into his path every day, just like my daughter is going to continue to ask me if we can put the Christmas tree back up so Santa will come back this weekend. You can explain the calendar all you want, and on some level she understands, but it hasn’t stopped her from carrying on anyway.

So I wouldn’t put anything past him. He’s also a proven liar, so you’d think the whole story about hiring Getz as part of a plan to avoid a rebuild was textbook bullshit, but he’s also the most delusional business person I’ve ever had the misfortune of spending this much time thinking about, so he might actually really believe himself. In that case, he may actually want Ortiz. 

[Tnetennba]

19 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Well, that’s only possible if you still think Ortiz is rated the 50th overall prospect in the MLB, which he won’t be due to his age once MLB updates their list.

Rankings don’t have permanence, and it’s not like Ortiz is top 10-15. We are talking top 50 last year, and will be almost certainly lower the next time around. Rankings also don’t give a prospect concrete universal value the way he’s arguing. A soon to be 26 y/o prospect doesn’t move the needle for a White Sox team so very far away from being good. That’s not to say he doesn’t still have value, he’s highly ranked for a reason. He just doesn’t carry the same appeal for us. It’s less an attack on Ortiz as it is a statement of where the White Sox are. 

[Dick Allen]

28 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

In all likelihood, the WS are not going to look to contend until 2028. The Os took 4 years, Houston took 4-5 years and Reinsdorf is like Angelos and will want to soak up profits while pointing to some bs timeline  because “the Orioles and Astros did it”.

Because of that, you guys are right…Ortiz isn’t a logical candidate for you.  Now, he still could be a valuable piece and someone you look to trade in a few years but I’m not sure that makes a ton of sense.

Now, if Reinsdorf sees the crap division and says, I want to contend in 2026, Ortiz makes a lot more sense but I tend to doubt that will happen.

He can’t count on that timeline with the new draft rules. The Orioles drafted 1, 2, 5, 1. JR is already at 5, 10 at best. If he wants to win, he has to spend money, including using all of his international pool, and maybe doing the opposite of what he has been doing and taking contracts for more pool money. That’s the bottom line. 
 

Too many people think it’s 2016 again. It’s not.  The new anti tanking rules are going to burn a team that didn’t tank on purpose, but are so stuck in the past they can’t get out of the way of themselves.

 

moral of the story is letting KW and RH make baseball decisions is tanking.

Edited January 6 by Dick Allen

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, Tnetennba said:

Rankings don’t have permanence, and it’s not like Ortiz is top 10-15. We are talking top 50 last year, and will be almost certainly lower the next time around. Rankings also don’t give a prospect concrete universal value the way he’s arguing. A soon to be 26 y/o prospect doesn’t move the needle for a White Sox team so very far away from being good. That’s not to say he doesn’t still have value, he’s highly ranked for a reason. He just doesn’t carry the same appeal for us. It’s less an attack on Ortiz as it is a statement of where the White Sox are. 

He has as much control as some of the other names we kick around. No guarantee any of them are here longer.

I’d like him as a second piece but need a better primary piece (Kjerstad/Cowser).

Edited January 6 by Bob Sacamano

[Frobby]

Question for White Sox fans who are very fixated on Ortiz’s age - why has nobody raised this point about Kjerstad?  He’ll be 25 before the season starts.  He similarly would be playing a couple of years before the Sox are in a position to be good again.   

[Dick Allen]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Question for White Sox fans who are very fixated on Ortiz’s age - why has nobody raised this point about Kjerstad?  He’ll be 25 before the season starts.  He similarly would be playing a couple of years before the Sox are in a position to be good again.   

There’s a good chance every single player the White Sox acquire for Cease, if they are ready in 2024 or 2025, will be eligible for free agency before the White Sox are good again as long as JR is operating the team.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

He can’t count on that timeline with the new draft rules. The Orioles drafted 1, 2, 5, 1. JR is already at 5, 10 at best. If he wants to win, he has to spend money, including using all of his international pool, and maybe doing the opposite of what he has been doing and taking contracts for more pool money. That’s the bottom line. 
 

Too many people think it’s 2016 again. It’s not.  The new anti tanking rules are going to burn a team that didn’t tank on purpose, but are so stuck in the past they can’t get out of the way of themselves.

Oh I agree but he’s not going to do it I doubt.  He’s going to soak up the profits as long as he can under the disguise that “this is what’s best for the long term”.

For your guys sake, I hope that’s wrong but it’s what is likely.

The reality is that they should look to compete in 2026 and maybe they will because of the division but your expectation shouldn’t be that.

[Fielder Jones]

Submitting some early Orioles predictions - Blog (masnsports.com)

[Tnetennba]

1 minute ago, Bob Sacamano said:

He has as much control as some of the other names we kick around. No guarantee any of them are here longer.

He does. I’m not worried about remaining control, I’m just looking at how an older prospect fits with where the Sox roster is now and in the future. He could be past 30 by the time the Sox are decent again, that takes the shine off any previous rankings for me. Again, that’s not a knock on the player as much as it is a future roster building concern. 

[Bob Sacamano]

Just now, Tnetennba said:

He does. I’m not worried about remaining control, I’m just looking at how an older prospect fits with where the Sox roster is now and in the future. He could be past 30 by the time the Sox are decent again, that takes the shine off any previous rankings for me. Again, that’s not a knock on the player as much as it is a future roster building concern. 

They would only have him until his age 30 season fwiw.

[ChiSox59]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Question for White Sox fans who are very fixated on Ortiz’s age - why has nobody raised this point about Kjerstad?  He’ll be 25 before the season starts.  He similarly would be playing a couple of years before the Sox are in a position to be good again.   

I think the age matters less than most. Would I prefer he be 22-24? Yah, sure. For me it’s more than he has limited upside, pretty much needs to play SS to have value and our top prospect who isn’t terribly far away plays the same position. I’d be perfectly fine taking Ortiz back as a secondary piece in a Cease deal, but most certainly would NOT value him as a top 50 type prospect at his age and skill set. 

Edited January 6 by ChiSox59
Fixed typo

[Bob Sacamano]

14 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think the age matters less than most. Would I prefer he be 22-24? Yah, sure. For me it’s more than he has limited upside, pretty much needs to play SS to have value and our top prospect who isn’t terribly far away plays the same position. I’d be perfectly fine taking Ortiz back as a secondary piece in a Cease deal, but most certainly would value him as a top 50 type prospect at his age and skill set. 

Our insiders don’t think Montgomery can play SS long-term but you gotta at least give him the chance. No need to move him to 3B until he proves he can’t play SS or improve at the position.

Edited January 6 by Bob Sacamano

[Tnetennba]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Question for White Sox fans who are very fixated on Ortiz’s age - why has nobody raised this point about Kjerstad?  He’ll be 25 before the season starts.  He similarly would be playing a couple of years before the Sox are in a position to be good again.   

The dearth of quality LH OF talent in the system probably makes his age less of an issue? IDK. I don’t realize Kjerstad was nearly 25. It makes me question why these guys aren’t already playing in the bigs honestly, but I guess it’s what an abundance of talent looks like with limited spots to play. Not something we Sox fans are overly familiar with. 

[Tnetennba]

3 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Our insiders don’t think he can play SS long-term but you gotta at least give him the chance. No need to move him to 3B until he proves he can’t play SS or improve at the position.

Isn’t there concern that Montgomery ends up at 3rd as well?

[Tnetennba]

6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think the age matters less than most. Would I prefer he be 22-24? Yah, sure. For me it’s more than he has limited upside, pretty much needs to play SS to have value and our top prospect who isn’t terribly far away plays the same position. I’d be perfectly fine taking Ortiz back as a secondary piece in a Cease deal, but most certainly would NOT value him as a top 50 type prospect at his age and skill set. 

Well said. 

[Bob Sacamano]

8 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Isn’t there concern that Montgomery ends up at 3rd as well?

I’m talking about Montgomery.

Edited my comment to make it clear.

Edited January 6 by Bob Sacamano

[Snopek]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

In all likelihood, the WS are not going to look to contend until 2028. The Os took 4 years, Houston took 4-5 years and Reinsdorf is like Angelos and will want to soak up profits while pointing to some bs timeline  because “the Orioles and Astros did it”.

Nah he’s still too busy pointing at the 2015 Royals and the 2005 White Sox. He doesn’t strike me as a logical timeline sort of guy. More of a lightning in a bottle and pixie dust guy. So for all we know he does prefer someone like Ortiz, whether it makes sense to the rest of us or not.

[SkokieSox]

12 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Isn’t there concern that Montgomery ends up at 3rd as well?

I’m sure he eventually ends up there, as he ages. I think he plays short for his first couple years though. 

[Tnetennba]

7 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I’m talking about Montgomery.

Edited my comment to make it clear.

Ah. Makes sense. 
 

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

The dearth of quality LH OF talent in the system probably makes his age less of an issue? IDK. I don’t realize Kjerstad was nearly 25. It makes me question why these guys aren’t already playing in the bigs honestly, 

In Kjerstad’s case, he contracted myocarditis shortly after being drafted in 2020, and therefore did not play at all in 2021.   He tore a hammy in spring training 2022 so never got into a minor league game until June 2022, when he was 23.   He’s had less than two years of minor league experience but made amazing strides last year.  

I went through Ortiz in another post.