Cease To Padres per Passan

[Bob Sacamano]

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Orioles will do something. Hard to believe their plan was to add Kimbrel and count on guys they already have while also not trading Santander. They lost Gibson and Flaherty from the playoff rotation. Plus Bautista who had a great season is out for all of 2024. That is a huge loss.

Hope is not a strategy.

 

It’s the White Sox post-rebuild plan: only count on guys here. And also added Kimbrel lol

[WhiteSox2023]

10 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And let’s be honest, if the offers are underwhelming it doesn’t matter anyway. Look at what the Pirates got for Cole back in 2018. Musgrove was serviceable but the rest was garbage. Didn’t move the needle and pretty much comparable to zero at the end of the day.

Sure, but you are using the benefit of hindsight to make the trade look worse than it was at the time.  I could say the same about the White Sox/Red Sox Chris Sale trade.  Moncada and Kopech turned into bums so it was a bad trade — “pretty much comparable to zero at the end of the day.”

https://www.crawfishboxes.com/platform/amp/2018/1/15/16893418/diving-deep-into-the-astros-gerrit-cole-trade-pirates-musgrove-moran-feliz

Quote

In return for two years of Cole, the Astros sent four players back to the Pirates. Reportedly, the Pirates favored the deal from a “quantity over quality” standpoint, but that cliché downplays what these players currently are and what they could be. Musgrove, Moran, and Feliz were all national Top 100 prospects (Top 50 in Musgrove and Feliz’ cases), and both Musgrove and Feliz came off the list due to major league eligibility, not because they lacked development.

Edited January 11 by WhiteSox2023

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Just now, WhiteSox2023 said:

Sure, but you are using the benefit of hindsight to make the trade look worse than it was at the time.  I could say the same about the White Sox and Red Sox Chris Sale trade.

https://www.crawfishboxes.com/platform/amp/2018/1/15/16893418/diving-deep-into-the-astros-gerrit-cole-trade-pirates-musgrove-moran-feliz

 

Right and it was still an epic flop. Some are advocating that Getz accept one top 100 guy and a few fill ins, which is apparently what’s been offered to date. What’s the rush to accept that? 50/50 odds that type of package amounts to a zero at the end of the day. Might as well wait until July if that’s the case.

[Snopek]

I'm so glad I'm not Getz because I have so much Cease trade talk fatigue that I'd just ask for a single crab cake in return at this point. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

12 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And let’s be honest, if the offers are underwhelming it doesn’t matter anyway. Look at what the Pirates got for Cole back in 2018. Musgrove was serviceable but the rest was garbage. Didn’t move the needle and pretty much comparable to zero at the end of the day.

But offers can be underwhelming on the surface and always have a chance to be better than expected. He gets hurt then it's wait till next year and his value tanks even more where your underwhelming package from now is worth a lot more than what you'd get  at trade deadline 2025.

In any trade for Cease the likely outcome is 1 guy pans out anyway. You do your best to mitigate that outcome but it's not guaranteed.

Among the trades in the 1st rebuild rank them in order of the best return , Sale, Quintana or Eaton ? Keep in mind how much service time each of them had left , not just the return.

Edited January 11 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[WhiteSox2023]

2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Right and it was still an epic flop. Some are advocating that Getz accept one top 100 guy and a few fill ins, which is apparently what’s been offered to date. What’s the rush to accept that? 50/50 odds that type of package amounts to a zero at the end of the day. Might as well wait until July if that’s the case.

Knowing that he currently has only two big trade chips to move, I would be shocked if Getz has the balls to retain Cease into the season, risk injury, and truly get nothing at all for him, rather than some highly rated prospects that may or may not pan out, just like all prospects.

Edited January 11 by WhiteSox2023

[fathom]

 

[fathom]

Now we have Heyman, Murray, Rogers and Nightengale saying he might not be traded.  I don’t like how this is trending, especially if Yanks get Snell.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

6 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

But offers can be underwhelming on the surface and always have a chance to be better than expected. He gets hurt then it's wait till next year and his value tanks even more where your underwhelming package from now is worth a lot more than what you'd get  at trade deadline 2025.

In any trade for Cease the likely outcome is 1 guy pans out anyway. You do your best to mitigate that outcome but it's not guaranteed.

Among the trades in the 1st rebuild rank them in order of the best return , Sale, Quintana or Eaton ? Keep in mind how much service time each of them had left , not just the return.

I’m always an advocate for acquiring pitching so I loved the Eaton trade at the time. Quantity and quality. Still can’t believe they got that much for Adam Eaton.

[Balta1701]

13 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Sure, but you are using the benefit of hindsight to make the trade look worse than it was at the time.  I could say the same about the White Sox and Red Sox Chris Sale trade.

https://www.crawfishboxes.com/platform/amp/2018/1/15/16893418/diving-deep-into-the-astros-gerrit-cole-trade-pirates-musgrove-moran-feliz

This really isn't doing justice to these guys though - Michael Feliz did top out as the Astros #5 prospect according to MLB.com - in 2015. In 2016 he had dropped to their #10 prospect, in 2017 he was off their list. When Moran was traded, he started out as the Astros 25th ranked prospect in 2017 and he slotted in as the Pirates #8 prospect in 2018. Moran was absolutely not a top 100 MLB prospect in 2018 at least per MLB.com, although some of the other sites discuss him as a controversial player.

Fangraphs had Moran as a 50 FV player, Musgrove as a 50 FV player, and Feliz as a 45 FV player at either the time of the trade or the time when they were last ranked, and as of that point Feliz had 2 full major league seasons in the bullpen with an ERA above 5. 

[SoCalChiSox]

6 minutes ago, fathom said:

 

More negotiating thru the media.

Fans don't want Stroman and Hal doesn't want to pay 200m for a 31 year old Snell after they just got burned by Rodon.

Jones, Hampton and one more piece in the Top 10-15 area of their system. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, fathom said:

Now we have Heyman, Murray, Rogers and Nightengale saying he might not be traded.  I don’t like how this is trending, especially if Yanks get Snell.

As I said before, the options are dwindling. That isn’t going to cause his value to go up.

The market is telling Getz that Cease’s value isn’t as high as he thinks it is.  Will he adjust to that or just go into the season with him?  Sounds like the media believes Getz isn’t coming off his demands and no one is improving their offer, so Getz keeps him.

[WhiteSox2023]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

This really isn't doing justice to these guys though - Michael Feliz did top out as the Astros #5 prospect according to MLB.com - in 2015. In 2016 he had dropped to their #10 prospect, in 2017 he was off their list. When Moran was traded, he started out as the Astros 25th ranked prospect in 2017 and he slotted in as the Pirates #8 prospect in 2018. Moran was absolutely not a top 100 MLB prospect in 2018 at least per MLB.com, although some of the other sites discuss him as a controversial player.

Fangraphs had Moran as a 50 FV player, Musgrove as a 50 FV player, and Feliz as a 45 FV player at either the time of the trade or the time when they were last ranked, and as of that point Feliz had 2 full major league seasons in the bullpen with an ERA above 5. 

True, I always thought that the Pirates took back less in the way of prospects in that deal to get back Musgrove, who they wanted to replace Cole.  But it also goes to show that prospects barely pan out, which is why I guess it makes sense that Getz is sticking to his guns for a highly rated return.

[fathom]

3 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

More negotiating thru the media.

Fans don't want Stroman and Hal doesn't want to pay 200m for a 31 year old Snell after they just got burned by Rodon.

Jones, Hampton and one more piece in the Top 10-15 area of their system. 

Yanks offered Snell a deal

[SoCalChiSox]

Just now, fathom said:

Yanks offered Snell a deal

Yeah but for how much?

I thought Boras wanted about 200m....I doubt NY offered close to that.

[WhiteSox2023]

2 minutes ago, fathom said:

Yanks offered Snell a deal

Per Heyman.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

True, I always thought that the Pirates took back less in the way of prospects in that deal to get back Musgrove, who they wanted to replace Cole.  But it also goes to show that prospects barely pan out, which is why I guess it makes sense that Getz is sticking to his guns for a highly rated return.

I read that as one part with decent MLB value in Musgrove, a guy who looked a lot like a bust or back of the bullpen reliever (Feliz), and a guy with a high ceiling but a low chance of reaching it. 

If we got an exactly comparable package, people would be furious with Getz. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

True, I always thought that the Pirates took back less in the way of prospects in that deal to get back Musgrove, who they wanted to replace Cole.  But it also goes to show that prospects barely pan out, which is why I guess it makes sense that Getz is sticking to his guns for a highly rated return.

It’s also why Elias would be a fool to hold onto all of his prospects and not trade for an established starter while that team is in their contention window.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

I read that as one part with decent MLB value in Musgrove, a guy who looked a lot like a bust or back of the bullpen reliever (Feliz), and a guy with a high ceiling but a low chance of reaching it. 

If we got an exactly comparable package, people would be furious with Getz. 

? if the offers are even worse than the Cole return, which it sounds like they are, hold onto him and (1) see if he pitches well in the first half of the season and trade him in July or (2) if he pitches well and the team is playing better than expected (unlikely I know but the ALC sucks) keep him and make a run at a very bad division.

[WhiteSox2023]

4 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

? if the offers are even worse than the Cole return, which it sounds like they are, hold onto him and (1) see if he pitches well in the first half of the season and trade him in July or (2) if he pitches well and the team is playing better than expected (unlikely I know but the ALC sucks) keep him and make a run at a very bad division.

No one knows what the offers for Cease are.  Maybe Getz is truly asking for a ridiculous return?  We don’t know.  The other possibilities are:

(3) Cease pitches worse in 2024 than he did in 2023 and the trade offers for him drop even further.

(4) Cease suffers a severe injury and the Sox get absolutely nothing for him.  Sox completely waste the asset of two years of control of a healthy Cease.

Edited January 11 by WhiteSox2023

[Y2Jimmy0]

19 minutes ago, fathom said:

Now we have Heyman, Murray, Rogers and Nightengale saying he might not be traded.  I don’t like how this is trending, especially if Yanks get Snell.

If the Yankees won't even move Spencer Jones, he probably isn't getting moved. I don't get it. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

(3) Cease pitches worse in 2024 than he did in 2023 and the trade offers for him drop even further.

(4) Cease suffers a severe injury and the Sox get absolutely nothing for him.  Sox completely waste the asset of two years of control of a healthy Cease.

Certainly possible and that’s the risk you take. But if you’re getting shitty offers now it’s not much of a risk anyways imo.

[WhiteSox2023]

1 minute ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

If the Yankees won't even move Spencer Jones, he probably isn't getting moved. I don't get it. 

Disaster zone.  Watching every Cease start for an entire first half hoping nothing bad happens (poor performance or injury).  Not for the faint of heart.

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

(3) Cease pitches worse in 2024 than he did in 2023 and the trade offers for him drop even further.

(4) Cease suffers a severe injury and the Sox get absolutely nothing for him.  Sox completely waste the asset of two years of control of a healthy Cease.

If Cease is as bad in '24 as he was in '23, then the White Sox will be sitting there with a mid-rotation pitcher, likely to still eat innings, available at the trade deadline, with a low price and 1.5 years of control. That should theoretically be more valuable than either Lynn or Giolito were at the deadline last year. So - not a big drop in trade value if no one is coming close to Getz's price right now. 

The only downside is if he does get hurt, which - he's leading MLB in starts over the last 3 years so he's a decent bet to stay healthy for 3 months, and if he's only getting a limited offer return right now, then it's not a huge loss if he does get hurt. 

If the offers aren't there right now, there's a big potential advantage to holding him and a fairly low loss if everything goes bad. The balance is likely in favor of holding him if no one is desperate right now.

[Whisox05]