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Cease To Padres per Passan


Chicago White Sox

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/mike-clevinger-605182?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
 

There are some positive things there…but he doesn’t solve the true need of the Os.

The LOL re: Clevinger goes beyond the stats. The guy is a douche and a clubhouse cancer imo. There’s a reason he’s still available and was available for cheap for the Sox last offseason.

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/mike-clevinger-605182?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
 

There are some positive things there…but he doesn’t solve the true need of the Os.

You want to have that jag-off around one of the youngest teams in baseball?

Read up on what happened to him in CLEVE with Francona, and he was run out of SD as well because he was never reliable from a health standpoint and they traded a boatload of talent to get him from the Indians.

Start researching Puig/Tatis Jr./Bauer and you'll see Clevinger connected to all the same individuals in that "groupies" list who took down/took out Trevor Bauer.

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Just now, Sports Guy said:

I’m one of the few Os fans that want 2 starters but I don’t think that’s going to happen.

The Marlins match up the best for the Os because they could also want a ML piece that we should be looking to trade.

I would like to add Edward Cabrera and part of me wants him over Cease. Cease is more of a sure thing in most ways but Cabrera has a big upside, has 5 years of control and will cost less than Cease.

 

Dylan Cease is an obvious trade candidate.  There are others that have been mentioned over the past 2 months: Braxton Garrett, Mitch Keller, Brian Woo, Jesus Luzardo, Framber Valdez, etc.  Of course, who knows if they are really available.  

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1 minute ago, ptatc said:

They aren't counting on him to lead the staff. He pitched better than Cease last year. Not that I expect that this year but he will be far cheaper. 

No way he's under the $11 million mark, which is what he would have gotten to stay in Chicago, correct?

Heck just look at Montas and Severino.   He might be closer to $15-17/18 million, even.

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1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

You want to have that jag-off around one of the youngest teams in baseball?

Read up on what happened to him in CLEVE with Francona, and he was run out of SD as well because he was never reliable from a health standpoint and they traded a boatload of talent to get him from the Indians.

Start researching Puig/Tatis Jr./Bauer and you'll see Clevinger connected to all the same individuals in that "groupies" list who took down/took out Trevor Bauer.

No I don’t want him at all. If I don’t get one of the Marlins starters, Cease or Bieber, I’m going with Hall as our 5th starter because he has an immense ceiling even if he’s not likely to reach it.  

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1 minute ago, Snowy Demon said:

Dylan Cease is an obvious trade candidate.  There are others that have been mentioned over the past 2 months: Braxton Garrett, Mitch Keller, Brian Woo, Jesus Luzardo, Framber Valdez, etc.  Of course, who knows if they are really available.  

Corbin Burnes came in with a lower arbitration number than some were expecting.  So he's a lot more attractive at $16 million than let's say $25ish million.  To the Brewers attempting to compete OR potentially acquiring teams.

Then you have Bieber as well, depending on his health in spring and Guardians' RSN deal/resolution.

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2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No I don’t want him at all. If I don’t get one of the Marlins starters, Cease or Bieber, I’m going with Hall as our 5th starter because he has an immense ceiling even if he’s not likely to reach it.  

Who is Miami willing to trade other than Luzardo?

Eury Perez and Alcantara have to be off limits for quite obvious reasons...

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1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Who is Miami willing to trade other than Luzardo?

Eury Perez and Alcantara have to be off limits for quite obvious reasons...

Cabrera has been the guy mentioned for the Os. I think it’s just speculation but he makes sense. He is a high risk/high reward guy. 

They have Max Meyer coming back plus all their other pitching. They easily have guys to trade even with Alcantara out all year but they need a starting SS and other offense. We match up perfectly with them.

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Just now, Sports Guy said:

Cabrera has been the guy mentioned for the Os. I think it’s just speculation but he makes sense. He is a high risk/high reward guy. 

They have Max Meyer coming back plus all their other pitching. They easily have guys to trade even with Alcantara out all year but they need a starting SS and other offense. We match up perfectly with them.

Last I heard, they’re going to make a trade that adds to the team and doesn’t subtract from big league roster.

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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Cabrera has been the guy mentioned for the Os. I think it’s just speculation but he makes sense. He is a high risk/high reward guy. 

They have Max Meyer coming back plus all their other pitching. They easily have guys to trade even with Alcantara out all year but they need a starting SS and other offense. We match up perfectly with them.

That all makes sense...if they continue to WANT to be a feeder team for the O's and the rest of MLB (fwiw, Pirates will start ascending now as well with their farm suddenly alive)...when they probably are in a position to out compete with them in terms of financial resources.

ADD ADD ADD.

Plus NYM are down.   Basically have to worry about the Braves and Phillies, which is no small mountain to overcome but last year was at least forward progress for them.

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3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

That all makes sense...if they continue to WANT to be a feeder team for the O's and the rest of MLB (fwiw, Pirates will start ascending now as well with their farm suddenly alive)...when they probably are in a position to out compete with them in terms of financial resources.

ADD ADD ADD.

Plus NYM are down.   Basically have to worry about the Braves and Phillies, which is no small mountain to overcome but last year was at least forward progress for them.

It would be a buy and sell thing. They would acquiring pieces to help the ML roster right now.

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24 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

No way he's under the $11 million mark, which is what he would have gotten to stay in Chicago, correct?

Heck just look at Montas and Severino.   He might be closer to $15-17/18 million, even.

I meant capital in general. His even 15 mil, is cheaper than the prospect capital it would take to acquire Cease value wise. 

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15 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

At this point, I probably just hold onto him and see how he does with a cleaner defense behind him.

Also Kopech Crochet Santos Leasure, etc.

Can’t hardly get any worse than the pit they’re in right now.

 

Worth noting Phillips’ defense has been trending downhill across three seasons and 30 the borderline for speed based players.

Not the Royal and Ray we remember.  Offense similar to Adam Engel in 2022-23.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-a-taylor/11489/stats?position=OF

Michael A. Taylor could dramatically improve pitching lines.

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37 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

At this point, I probably just hold onto him and see how he does with a cleaner defense behind him.

So if you do this, what is the thought process behind it?

Play things out for a moment. We can all agree, I think, that if Cease has a really good first half that he will be worth as much, if not more, than he is now. We should also be able to agree that pitchers fetch more at the deadline than they do in the offseason. That’s the general rule of thumb.

So, a scenario does exist where he is worth as much if not more.

But that’s the absolute best case, everything goes perfect scenario. It’s possible but is it likely?

Now, play out other scenarios….he gets hurt and you get nothing. He has similar results in 2024 as he had in 2023 only now he has less service time and he is now even further removed from 2022. Let’s say the results are only slightly better than 2023 but now less service time. 

End of the day, there is really only one scenario where he fetches more and that may be the most far fetched scenario of all of them.

And what does fetching more mean? How much more?  Is it worth it the risk for whatever the difference ends up being?

The assumption seems to be that the offers are bad. The assumption is not, Getz is asking for too much. The market tells you that he’s asking for too much. When your house is worth 500k and you are asking 700k, the value of your house doesn’t increase because “you love your house”. Your house is worth what people will pay.

The market is clearly saying that Cease isn’t worth what Getz thinks he’s worth. Whether Getz is off by 20% or 50%, who knows but he’s off. I think the best thing to do is for Getz to come down off his price, get someone else to move up on their price and come to some sort of an agreement. I just can’t see a scenario where it’s worth the risk to wait and trade him even if I agree that the risk could pay off.

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6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So if you do this, what is the thought process behind it?

Play things out for a moment. We can all agree, I think, that if Cease has a really good first half that he will be worth as much, if not more, than he is now. We should also be able to agree that pitchers fetch more at the deadline than they do in the offseason. That’s the general rule of thumb.

So, a scenario does exist where he is worth as much if not more.

But that’s the absolute best case, everything goes perfect scenario. It’s possible but is it likely?

Now, play out other scenarios….he gets hurt and you get nothing. He has similar results in 2024 as he had in 2023 only now he has less service time and he is now even further removed from 2022. Let’s say the results are only slightly better than 2023 but now less service time. 

End of the day, there is really only one scenario where he fetches more and that may be the most far fetched scenario of all of them.

And what does fetching more mean? How much more?  Is it worth it the risk for whatever the difference ends up being?

The assumption seems to be that the offers are bad. The assumption is not, Getz is asking for too much. The market tells you that he’s asking for too much. When your house is worth 500k and you are asking 700k, the value of your house doesn’t increase because “you love your house”. Your house is worth what people will pay.

The market is clearly saying that Cease isn’t worth what Getz thinks he’s worth. Whether Getz is off by 20% or 50%, who knows but he’s off. I think the best thing to do is for Getz to come down off his price, get someone else to move up on their price and come to some sort of an agreement. I just can’t see a scenario where it’s worth the risk to wait and trade him even if I agree that the risk could pay off.

Eh the service time part doesn't really matter since you would have him for the same amount of play-off runs as you would if you traded for him now.

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

https://x.com/jonheyman/status/1745670711828496530?s=46&t=G3On-_LleGmZce-r3ClVZA
 

Again, the market saying you are asking for too much. 

For this case, it’s more the Yankees just not wanting to trade a specific guy it sounds like.  Asking for a borderline top 50 guy isn’t excessive, but the Soto trade depleted their system enough to where the Yankees are being less aggressive.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Eh the service time part doesn't really matter since you would have him for the same amount of play-off runs as you would if you traded for him now.

It does matter because you aren’t getting him for 20ish starts and in theory, if you have him for those starts, your ability to make the playoffs increases. Him being available to pitch in the playoffs doesn’t matter if you don’t get there.

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2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It does matter because you aren’t getting him for 20ish starts and in theory, if you have him for those starts, your ability to make the playoffs increases. Him being available to pitch in the playoffs doesn’t matter if you don’t get there.

We're referring to teams that are in the playoff hunt trading for him at the deadline. I'm not talking about just having him for post-season, but the chase for the second half included. You're clearly misunderstanding.

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2 minutes ago, fathom said:

For this case, it’s more the Yankees just not wanting to trade a specific guy it sounds like.  Asking for a borderline top 50 guy isn’t excessive, but the Soto trade depleted their system enough to where the Yankees are being less aggressive.

Sure that’s possible but you some of you guys also thought you could get Dominguez. It was never happening. 

And maybe they would trade Jones but don’t want to put a bunch of other top talent with him. We don’t really know. 
 

I think a quantity deal with one top 100 guy and other guys with that upside is the likely outcome here.

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