Cease To Padres per Passan

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

8 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Let’s just say Cease is worth $60M in projected surplus value.  What do we think someone like Westburg is worth?  Let’s just keep this simple and say it’s a 10% chance he’s a 4 win player, a 30% chance he’s a 2.5 win player, a 30% chance he’s a 1 win player, and a 30% chance he’s a complete bust.  You’re looking at a mean projection of 1.45 wins per year.  At a cost of $6M per win (discounted for several reasons), you’re looking at ~$34M in expected surplus value.  Let’s just assume for ease that Beavers & McDermott are worth ~$15M each given they have much higher bust rates and lower ceilings than Westburg.  You’re looking at over $60M in expected surplus value from that package.

It’s not a sexy return by any means and lacks star potential (short of that best case outcome for Westburg), but if your scouts believe in these guys and feel the bust rates are low, there is plenty of value to be extracted from this type of package.  But for a club that has limited opportunities to acquire impact talent due to being a major market team who is afraid to sign stars in free agency, you have to think long & hard about the risk vs. reward of holding Cease until the deadline.  It obviously worked with Quintana, but Hahn had already spun off Sale & Eaton for five top 100 prospects plus multiple very high end guys.  If Getz fucks this up, it will likely set the franchise back multiple years.

I just wish we knew the offers and didn’t have to sift through BS leaks, because I’m still not buying guys like Jones & Hampton alone are untouchable for Dylan Cease, especially in this SP market.  And under no circumstance is two quality prospects a ridiculous ask for Cease unless we’re talking about 60+ FV guys.  If I had to guess, Getz is still maintaining an aggressive ask and waiting for Snell & Montgomery to sign before dropping it further.  And all this “untouchable” talk, at least with the Yankees, is likely Boras driven leaks to make New York look like a threat to sign his clients.  All that being said, I remain optimistic that a trade happens before OD with the O’s being the most likely suitor.

I'm glad you took a stab at what surplus value or future value means because I've been wondering.

For a guy like Cease he's a young veteran MLB pitcher with a 2nd place Cy Young finish recently. The fact that he's an established high level , durable pitcher in MLB with 2 years of control and low salary means a lot more than prospects who haven't proven any thing except being able to impress talent evaluators. Sure each prospect has a ranking based on skills and performance , ceiling and floor based on projected best guesses on future ability to adjust to the top level in the world and 6 years of control. 

But we all know that because baseball is the hardest sport to make projections of value of prospects because it's a sport where physical abilities are not the most important thing.

Your ability to be a chameleon means almost as much. Those who can adapt to the top environment are the ones who succeed.  However, that's a skill that can't be assessed. How fast you run, how strong or how quick your bat is takes a back seat if you can't handle the mental pressure learning you my not be the stud you thought you were for the last 10+ years of playing baseball collecting accolades inflating your ego . Every level you advanced you become a nobody again until you are so close to the top where the difference between AAA and MLB can blow your confidence away .

This is why you offer multiple prospects with enough questionable  future value to match the established MLB player future value. If you get Cy Cease his future value is worth way more. You get 2023 Cease it's worth way less.

This is what makes this trade so intriguing. With the O's Beavers may end up being better than Cowser or Kjerstad.  Maybe his future position in the rankings surpasses the highest Cowser or Kjerstad has acheived.Westburg may be better than Mayo. It's a lot harder to get future War stats playing 1st base.

People talking about holding onto Cease if the return  package doesn't meet expectations because you need the top 2 prospects you get to have the best chance of achieving MLB future value or you don't make the trade and pitch Cease into the season are missing the point. Getting 3 prospects who are capable of being good MLB players is very important to the Sox future. Getting Basallo ,Mayo, Cowser or Kjerstad may not be any better than getting Westburg, Beavers, Ortiz , Bradfield or Norby. I'd take the biggest quantity package I could get from the O's top 10 prospects list and try to include unranked guy with helium and guys who aged out of the top prospects or a guy who has a risk or being 1st base only. Get as many as you can . They are pretty much all looking better than Colas and Sosa at this point and that includes Ortiz.

Having some of us laughing at a guy who professional talent evaluators once had ranked pretty high is just weird.

Knowing how bad our system has been at development really screws with our heads in these trade scenarios. We want the highest ranked guys we can get as if that will insulate us from having to develop them and screwing them up . Once you fall off the list it's like you become worthless because the Sox can't fix you. You automatically become Colas, Sosa or Vaughn, Madrigal, Collins ,Fulmer, Crochet and Kopech.

Just make sure we get some lefties please and make the trade before the season starts.

[Tnetennba]

25 minutes ago, Sleepy Harold said:

For those interested, everyone's favorite MIF prospect Joey Ortiz is not in the top 100. 

Headliner baby!

I hope those prospect rankings keep them warm next fall when they finish 3rd and fail to make the postseason. 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

1 minute ago, Tnetennba said:

Headliner baby!

I hope those prospect rankings keep them warm next fall when they finish 3rd and fail to make the postseason. 

Yeah, I really dislike their pitching staff. Rays are always in it and I think the Yankees have really improved AND I think they're actually going for it so will make some big deadline splashes. I've got the Orioles finishing 3rd as of now.  They feel very 2020-2021 Sox-y to me.  Tons of young prospect studs, but virtually no outside help via free agency. That's an awful lot to rely on.

[Quin]

44 minutes ago, Sleepy Harold said:

For those interested, everyone's favorite MIF prospect Joey Ortiz is not in the top 100. 

And as we all know, #1 prospects all turn into Hall of Fame superstars.

[fathom]

49 minutes ago, Sleepy Harold said:

For those interested, everyone's favorite MIF prospect Joey Ortiz is not in the top 100. 

Age discrimination 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

55 minutes ago, Sleepy Harold said:

For those interested, everyone's favorite MIF prospect Joey Ortiz is not in the top 100. 

@Rolle Tide says we shouldn’t depend on just one prospect list but if Nicky Ortiz somehow still cracks the top 100 on mlb pipeline’s list (I don’t think he will) that’s exactly what he will do

Edited January 17 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[striker]

Great breakdown of the Cease market. A lot of repeat of what we have been saying in this forum, but it's something new to read!

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/dylan-cease-trade-candidates-six-teams-best-suited-to-acquire-the-star-pitcher

A few of these teams are in on Snell/Montgomery, so once those two sign we hopefully get our closure. 

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

@Rolle Tide says we shouldn’t depend on just one prospect list but if Nicky Ortiz somehow still cracks the top 100 on mlb pipeline’s list (I don’t think he will) that’s exactly what he will do

Ortiz was one of the 15 players who just missed the list and BA apparently had a good report on him. Draft picks, risers and yes, his age likely caused him to go from 63rd on the list to just off of it.

That being said, there are a lot of lists and some will have him and some won’t. There just isn’t much difference between 70 and 120. Having that number next to their name doesn’t make them a better prospect.  
 
He isn’t a top 50 prospect. The current MLB rating (which is the easiest list to find but also one of the worst) is too high. It always has been.  Despite your obsession with pointing out him as a headliner, almost no Os fans actually believe that. Grasping onto that because of a few dumb opinions saying that he could be is equally dumb. 
 

BtW, so many of the Os players that you guys say are garbage, were on the “received at least one vote” list.  The Os had 6 guys on that list including Povich, Norby and Beavers.

If those guys were top 100 guys, you would be all giddy about them. Stop worrying about the number by some bs ranking system that has many factors such as draft position and own personal biases when they were drafted (ie, not admitting they were wrong) and look at the actual performance and scouting reports.

 

 

Edited January 17 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

Some FYI:

https://x.com/firesideyankees/status/1747625142992224593?s=46&t=G3On-_LleGmZce-r3ClVZA

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ortiz was one of the 15 players who just missed the list and BA apparently had a good report on him. Draft picks, risers and yes, his age likely caused him to go from 63rd on the list to just off of it.

That being said, there are a lot of lists and some will have him and some won’t. There just isn’t much difference between 70 and 120. Having that number next to their name doesn’t make them a better prospect.  
 
He isn’t a top 50 prospect. The current MLB rating (which is the easiest list to find but also one of the worst) is too high. It always has been.  Despite your obsession with pointing out him as a headliner, almost no Os fans actually believe that. Grasping onto that because of a few dumb opinions saying that he could be is equally dumb. 
 

BtW, so many of the Os players that you guys say are garbage, were on the “received at least one vote” list.  The Os had 6 guys on that list including Povich, Norby and Beavers.

If those guys were top 100 guys, you would be all giddy about them. Stop worrying about the number by some bs ranking system that has many factors such as draft position and own personal biases when they were drafted (ie, not admitting they were wrong) and look at the actual performance and scouting reports.

 

 

Yankees have the same number of top 100 prospects on the Baseball America list as the orioles and I’ve been told the Orioles top 3 (some say top 4) are untouchable. Despite that, I’ve also been told teams like the Yankees couldn’t compete with an offer from the orioles (again, without including any of the orioles top 3/4 prospects). Huh

[fathom]

On 12/27/2023 at 12:50 PM, Sports Guy said:

Ortiz has some of the best EV numbers in the minors. I would be just as happy to have him as our starting second baseman long term as i would Westburg. In fact, I would much rather trade Westburg (compared to one of the OFers) for that reason.

Ortiz may be able to win a GG at three If positions. He is a 720-770 type bat imo. You get that combined with his defense and he is a 3.5-5 WAR type guy. I mean, the Os got 3.3 fWaR out of Jorge Mateo in 2022 because of his defense and his offense isn’t close to Ortiz.

But again, I get it. I get why you wouldn’t want him as the top guy in the package, especially because of his age. All I’m saying is that the level he is generally rated at is about the area I see the Sox getting their headliner from.

Maybe some have him as a top 50 guy and maybe some top 80..the reality is that there is very little difference there and Ortiz is far more likely to be a ML contributor than most prospects ahead of him because of the defense he can provide.

I thought you said there’s little difference between 50 and 80?  I’m really not sure why it’s so hard to understand his stock is plummeting because of his age.  

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

So yea, any offer that starts with Jones/Hampton beats any Orioles offering under the assumption that the top 3/4 are off limits. Will the Yankees cave on Getz’s demand for two premium prospects? Guess we’ll find out over the next 3 weeks…

[fathom]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Some FYI:

https://x.com/firesideyankees/status/1747625142992224593?s=46&t=G3On-_LleGmZce-r3ClVZA

Hampton, Arias, Pereira and one other lottery pick has always made sense to me.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

I thought you said there’s little difference between 50 and 80?  I’m really not sure why it’s so hard to understand his stock is plummeting because of his age.  

Yea, that’s the funny thing. They all want to harp on the potential for Cease’s trade value to drop between now and July when it’s more likely that Ortiz, Kjerstad, Cowser, McDermott have an even greater chance of seeing their trade value decline due to age. Maybe they’ll eventually understand that, maybe. Teams like the Dodgers certainly do.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

Hampton, Arias, Pereira and one other lottery pick has always made sense to me.

3 top 100 guys would be a haul. I’m not a big fan of Pereira but would love to add Hampton and Arias if Jones is off limits.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Yankees have the same number of top 100 prospects on the Baseball America list as the orioles and I’ve been told the Orioles top 3 (some say top 4) are untouchable. Despite that, I’ve also been told teams like the Yankees couldn’t compete with an offer from the orioles (again, without including any of the orioles top 3/4 prospects). Huh

 

If the Os wanted to put their best on the table,  no chance the Yankees can hang.

But, since they aren’t, it becomes either a quantity deal (which they can hang with) or it becomes a Cowser/Kjerstad/Westburg vs Jones type thing(as a headliner)..who do you (and by you, I mean Getz) prefer. That’s tough. Obviously no one knows that.  Of course, none of those guys may be on the table either..who knows.

But sure the Yankees can hang although the Yankees guys have a history of being overhyped. (Again, talking specifically about these lists vs performance). 
 

It just depends on who is made available in the trade. 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, fathom said:

I thought you said there’s little difference between 50 and 80?  I’m really not sure why it’s so hard to understand his stock is plummeting because of his age.  

It’s not hard..I have said it. I don’t know why it’s so hard for you to comprehend that.

But that doesn’t make him a bad player and in fact, I would bet money that he ends up with a higher career WAR than at least half of the current top 100 list.

You can keep ignoring the batted ball data from him but it’s very good. 

https://x.com/jopo12191/status/1747432086917587010?s=46&t=G3On-_LleGmZce-r3ClVZA

 

But I’m good. I think we can take Ortiz off the table in terms of discussing him as part of this deal. I don’t disagree that he makes less sense for you guys because of his age.
 

If any of these reports are true and Westburg is a target, he should be in the deal and the Os should keep Ortiz.

Edited January 17 by Sports Guy

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

 

If the Os wanted to put their best on the table,  no chance the Yankees can hang.

But, since they aren’t, it becomes either a quantity deal (which they can hang with) or it becomes a Cowser/Kjerstad/Westburg vs Jones type thing(as a headliner)..who do you (and by you, I mean Getz) prefer. That’s tough. Obviously no one knows that.  Of course, none of those guys may be on the table either..who knows.

But sure the Yankees can hang although the Yankees guys have a history of being overhyped. (Again, talking specifically about these lists vs performance). 
 

It just depends on who is made available in the trade. 

Sure but many Orioles fans have said Westburg and Kjerstad are off limits. Many don’t mind giving Cowser because he sucked in a short mlb stint last season. “Some” also don’t mind giving Ortiz for obvious reasons. Again, trading for a guy like Cease is going to hurt and giving up your “spare” parts certainly doesn’t hurt. If only spare parts are being offered then it’s obvious the Orioles won’t be acquiring Cease or any other comparable pitcher that might be available.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, fathom said:

Hampton, Arias, Pereira and one other lottery pick has always made sense to me.

Yea I would agree with that. I find it hard to believe the Yankees would say no to that but who knows. I don’t know what the impact of trading a bunch of guys in the Soto deal has to them.

Can’t be that much or else you would figure they wouldn’t have engaged with them to begin with.

I think younger, higher ceiling guys is the best way for your team to go.

[fathom]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea I would agree with that. I find it hard to believe the Yankees would say no to that but who knows. I don’t know what the impact of trading a bunch of guys in the Soto deal has to them.

Can’t be that much or else you would figure they wouldn’t have engaged with them to begin with.

I think younger, higher ceiling guys is the best way for your team to go.

There’s been some speculation that Peraza was the headliner they wanted to use.  It’s really surprising to me how they won’t trade Jones, given who they have on the roster and what their window is.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea I would agree with that. I find it hard to believe the Yankees would say no to that but who knows. I don’t know what the impact of trading a bunch of guys in the Soto deal has to them.

Can’t be that much or else you would figure they wouldn’t have engaged with them to begin with.

I think younger, higher ceiling guys is the best way for your team to go.

Hey, I actually agree with you. It’s why the Orioles are a bad match. Their top 3 are untouchable apparently and the other top prospects are all relatively old for prospects. Yankees make the most sense and I still think they need a guy like Cease for that rotation. I’m still hoping they miss out on Snell.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Sure but many Orioles fans have said Westburg and Kjerstad are off limits. Many don’t mind giving Cowser because he sucked in a short mlb stint last season. “Some” also don’t mind giving Ortiz for obvious reasons. Again, trading for a guy like Cease is going to hurt and giving up your “spare” parts certainly doesn’t hurt. If only spare parts are being offered then it’s obvious the Orioles won’t be acquiring Cease or any other comparable pitcher that might be available.

How are you defining many?  Most are fine with Cowser, Westburg or Kjerstad as a headliner.

What you are leaving out is the idea that a lot of fans are against trading a lot for Cease. So many of you keep treating these words that it means Os fans are saying these guys are untouchable. There are only 3 players that even remotely have that untouchable tag and even that’s not really true..it’s just that the players you would trade them for aren’t available, so they might as well be untouchable.

Its just that a lot of fans see the command and control issues, the decrease in stuff, the 97 ERA+ last year and the general good but not great career surround one great season and say, it’s not worth trading for.  It’s not an unfair thing to say, just as it’s not unfair for you guys to say, we want a lot for him because of the cost of pitching.  Neither side is wrong.

Personally, I think the Os fans who don’t want him are crazy but I still get their POV on it.

[WhiteSox2023]

Ortiz makes sense for a team that is on the brink of contention, just like how the Cubs traded for 26 year old Michael Busch.  If his bat pans out, they have a cheap 1B/DH option and can dedicate money at more key positions than 1B.  The Sox are definitely in a position to give a guy like Ortiz plenty of at bats but I think they would prefer a prospect return in the lower 20’s as far as age goes.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

There’s been some speculation that Peraza was the headliner they wanted to use.  It’s really surprising to me how they won’t trade Jones, given who they have on the roster and what their window is.

I think Jones is overrated personally but maybe the Yankees see him as their CFer of the future.  Kind of like Bradfield for the Os. They don’t have anyone else for that important position and  the upside is very good, so we aren’t moving him.  
 

I always get surprised that the Yankees don’t do something stupid.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ortiz was one of the 15 players who just missed the list and BA apparently had a good report on him. Draft picks, risers and yes, his age likely caused him to go from 63rd on the list to just off of it.

That being said, there are a lot of lists and some will have him and some won’t. There just isn’t much difference between 70 and 120. Having that number next to their name doesn’t make them a better prospect.  
 
He isn’t a top 50 prospect. The current MLB rating (which is the easiest list to find but also one of the worst) is too high. It always has been.  Despite your obsession with pointing out him as a headliner, almost no Os fans actually believe that. Grasping onto that because of a few dumb opinions saying that he could be is equally dumb. 
 

BtW, so many of the Os players that you guys say are garbage, were on the “received at least one vote” list.  The Os had 6 guys on that list including Povich, Norby and Beavers.

If those guys were top 100 guys, you would be all giddy about them. Stop worrying about the number by some bs ranking system that has many factors such as draft position and own personal biases when they were drafted (ie, not admitting they were wrong) and look at the actual performance and scouting reports.

 

 

Who said any of those guys were garbage?