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Cease To Padres per Passan


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Just now, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Age absoultely works against a 'prospect' with no (or little) major league experience more than an upper 20s major league caliiber player.

I just hope McDermott gets some 4 out save chances in AAA

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2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Huh?  This doesn’t make sense.

Cease is much older than them and showing some signs of decline. To say age isn’t working against him but it’s working against guys 3-5 years younger doesn’t make sense.

They may be old for a prospect but that doesn’t mean they are going to be worthless. They are going to help the actual ML team.  

Let me put this plainly: if Joey Ortiz gets 75 mlb plate appearances for the Orioles in 2024 and plays similar to what he did last season in a small sample size but is another year older and still largely unproven, you think his value this time next year will be equal to or higher than it is right now? He’d be a 26.5 year old with little to no mlb experience.

The age concern doesn’t apply to established mlb veterans (unless they’re like 30+). The biggest factor for them assuming performance is similar to prior years is team control (because this has $ implications) and surplus value (again, $ implications relative to performance and age becomes a factor for a long contract not one that’s less than 2 years). No one is worried that Cease is another 6 months older in July 2024 than he is today if his performance is on par with the past 3 years. Yes, he would have half a season of less control than today but if a first or second place team at the deadline is making that deal that won’t matter much. Now if the Sox hold him until July 2025, that would have a significant impact on his value. But age won’t factor in for an established mlb vet under 30.

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8 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

Lol

 

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So he would want high upside guys if he was us but it's problem that we do. Who wants to guess how he twists this to make it sound like that's not what he said? 

Edited by Baron
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1 minute ago, Baron said:

So he would want high upside guys if he was us but it's problem that we do. Who wants to guess how he twists this to make it sound like that's not what he said? 

Dude is just the Rick & Morty meme but baseball flavored

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1 minute ago, Baron said:

So he would want high upside guys if he was us but it's problem that we do. Who wants to guess how he twists this to make it sound like that's not what he said? 

What a con.  Posting crap on here and the opposite on his own board.  Snake Guy needs to stop making assumptions on what the Sox should want or who Getz may be targeting.

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2 minutes ago, Quin said:

Dude is just the Rick & Morty meme but baseball flavored

Pretty much. 

First they were circular and then he was just arguing to argue. I'm guessing the insults about our reading comprehension are coming up next because that's the order of things. 

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17 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Age absoultely works against a 'prospect' with no (or little) major league experience more than an upper 20s major league caliiber player.

That’s fine…but it doesn’t mean the player is worthless. That’s what I’m saying.

And the context was that keeping cease is all but positivity and the Os keeping their guys is negativity.  That’s not accurate at all.

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s fine…but it doesn’t mean the player is worthless. That’s what I’m saying.

And the context was that keeping cease is all but positivity and the Os keeping their guys is negativity.  That’s not accurate at all.

Most everyone who says they should hold on to Cease acknowledges there is risk.  Some posters are outright against it.  

You need to improve your reading comprehension. 

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10 minutes ago, Baron said:

So he would want high upside guys if he was us but it's problem that we do. Who wants to guess how he twists this to make it sound like that's not what he said? 

I never said it was a problem for you guys to want high upside guys.  I said that weeks ago. I said I didn’t feel you guys will contend for a while and that you should want high upside, further away guys.

Im not blaming you for that and I never have.

But the flip side to that is that if those guys fail, you end up with nothing. You guys have said time and time again how you need this trade to work out for you. Taking a bunch of high ceiling 20 year olds is great but your bust potential is high.

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I never said it was a problem for you guys to want high upside guys.  I said that weeks ago. I said I didn’t feel you guys will contend for a while and that you should want high upside, further away guys.

Im not blaming you for that and I never have.

But the flip side to that is that if those guys fail, you end up with nothing. You guys have said time and time again how you need this trade to work out for you. Taking a bunch of high ceiling 20 year olds is great but your bust potential is high.

So your talking out of both sides of your mouth basically.

 

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1 minute ago, Nardiwashere said:

Most everyone who says they should hold on to Cease acknowledges there is risk.  Some posters are outright against it.  

You need to improve your reading comprehension. 

Yes but again, read the actual post I was addressing.  Not the one that your second personality has drummed up in your head.

Im speaking specifically about his assertion that it could be positive to hold onto Cease but holding onto the Os players is only a negative for the Os.

Thats not accurate. There are plenty of positive things that could occur for the Os as a result of keeping those guys.  

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Just now, Baron said:

So your talking out of both sides of your mouth basically.

 

Show me how.  And show me the actual words. Not how your brain tries to interpret something…because you are awful at that.

I have never once said you guys shouldn’t be looking to gain upside guys. I have said that I don’t think the Os are the best match for you because of that.  I have said the Os should trade one of the OFers most of you want. I have said that Ortiz shouldn’t be someone you target and he is someone that some Os fans are overrating in terms of his value in this package.

I actually agree with most of the points on here by those of you who actually have good points. 

So, show me. Prove your point with actual proof.

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16 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

What a con.  Posting crap on here and the opposite on his own board.  Snake Guy needs to stop making assumptions on what the Sox should want or who Getz may be targeting.

What is opposite that I’m saying? Show me

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10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes but again, read the actual post I was addressing.  Not the one that your second personality has drummed up in your head.

Im speaking specifically about his assertion that it could be positive to hold onto Cease but holding onto the Os players is only a negative for the Os.

Thats not accurate. There are plenty of positive things that could occur for the Os as a result of keeping those guys.  

That’s not at all what I said lol. Improve your reading comprehension sir.

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1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Some of those fans would rather hold onto guys like Ortiz, McDermott, etc. until they’re essentially worthless. Makes sense.

At least those advocating for holding Cease until July understand the risk that comes with that but there’s also potential upside/more value by waiting if the offers aren’t there right now while a bunch of free agent SP are still on the market. I’m not sure some Orioles fans understand the risk with holding a bunch of these guys until they become non-prospects and/or utility players like Ryan McKenna. Gotta strike while they still have value. Plus, they’ll have a major 40-man roster crunch soon if they don’t move guys.

No absolutes there other than if you hold on to Nicky Ortiz for another 12-24 months in AAA, his value WILL absolutely plummet. Heck, it’s already dropping as we’re seeing from top prospects lists…

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15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s fine…but it doesn’t mean the player is worthless. That’s what I’m saying.

And the context was that keeping cease is all but positivity and the Os keeping their guys is negativity.  That’s not accurate at all.

worthless /= worth less.

 

THAT is the context you are missing.

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Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

No absolutes there other than if you hold on to Nicky Ortiz for another 12-24 months in AAA, his value WILL absolutely plummet. Heck, it’s already dropping as we’re seeing from top prospects lists…

His value doesn’t plummet if he is starting for the Os though. That’s what I’m saying.

A players worth isn’t just tied to a trade. 

Where I do agree is that holding him to be a UTi player/insurance policy is dumb. My concern for some of these guys is that they get hurt or exposed or whatever and then they lose value.

However, for any individual player that’s not true..it’s more of a general thought process for any team or any group of players.

 

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1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

worthless /= worth less.

 

THAT is the context you are missing.

Honestly, it’s both. The longer they hold on to a guy like Ortiz in AAA, the less he becomes worth due to age and if they still have him there in AAA another 18 months from now (or riding the bench in mlb) yea he’s pretty much worthless. A third or fourth piece at best in a trade for a significant SP.

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2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

worthless /= worth less.

 

THAT is the context you are missing.

Then he shouldn’t have said worthless.  It wasn’t two words. It was one. Those are 2 different things.

If he means what you are saying, I agree with that although again, that doesn’t apply to any one individual player because any one individual player can get better and see value improve but I do agree with it as an overall group and general rule of thumb. 

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

His value doesn’t plummet if he is starting for the Os though. That’s what I’m saying.

A players worth isn’t just tied to a trade. 

Where I do agree is that holding him to be a UTi player/insurance policy is dumb. My concern for some of these guys is that they get hurt or exposed or whatever and then they lose value.

However, for any individual player that’s not true..it’s more of a general thought process for any team or any group of players.

 

You expect Ortiz to get significant playing time for the orioles in 2024? How do you figure? Something went very wrong with their current mlb players if that happens (injuries I suppose). And even with significant mlb playing time, if he can’t hit mlb pitching, his value could very well still be less a year from now. He hasn’t proven anything in mlb yet but will need to do so very soon!

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