Cease To Padres per Passan

[southsider2k5]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Then he shouldn’t have said worthless.  It wasn’t two words. It was one. Those are 2 different things.

If he means what you are saying, I agree with that although again, that doesn’t apply to any one individual player because any one individual player can get better and see value improve but I do agree with it as an overall group and general rule of thumb. 

Here's the thing.  We know statistically what a player's prime years are in their mid to late 20's.  Most of the reading I have done on this focuses around 27ish, but that general 25-29 age range seems to be the peak performance for the average baseball player.  When statistical models knock future expected performance for a players who age is over level appropriate, there is a real reason for that.  When you have a guy like this who still has yet to take his lumps in the majors as they approach this "peak" age range, there is a real statistical probability that you won't see the same performance as you would have for a similar player who is making his waves ahead of this aging curve.

Yes exceptions happen, but those who fail to learn from their history are doomed to repeat it.  Betting on exceptions to the rule versus the rule, it is a risky proposition, especially in a post steroid era.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

You expect Ortiz to get significant playing time for the orioles in 2024? How do you figure? Something went very wrong with their current mlb players if that happens (injuries I suppose). And even with significant mlb playing time, if he can’t hit mlb pitching, his value could very well still be less a year from now. He hasn’t proven anything in mlb yet but will need to do so very soon!

There are 2 ways:

1) Westburg is traded. If that happens, he’s starting on the IF somewhere most games.

2) As of right now, the Os could start him everyday. They have vets like Mateo and Urias who could see time themselves but as of today, they have an open IF spot. They have 2 current everyday infielders who can play multiple IF positions in Westburg and Henderson. 
 

The obvious issue with #2 is when does the team bring up Holliday. Personally, I don’t think he’s brought up until they have cleared the likely super 2 threshold and, more importantly, lessened his at bats to the point where placing in the top 2 in ROy voting becomes tough to do and thus they get the extra year. This didn’t work out with Rutschman, so I suspect they show more caution with Holliday. 
 

However, there’s a chance they don’t and he is brought up sooner. If that’s the case, then playing time for Ortiz will be harder to come by.

Westburg or Ortiz really need to be dealt imo..Westburg has more value, so he is the guy who should go. I like him but not really anymore than Ortiz.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Here's the thing.  We know statistically what a player's prime years are in their mid to late 20's.  Most of the reading I have done on this focuses around 27ish, but that general 25-29 age range seems to be the peak performance for the average baseball player.  When statistical models knock future expected performance for a players who age is over level appropriate, there is a real reason for that.  When you have a guy like this who still has yet to take his lumps in the majors as they approach this "peak" age range, there is a real statistical probability that you won't see the same performance as you would have for a similar player who is making his waves ahead of this aging curve.

Yes exceptions happen, but those who fail to learn from their history are doomed to repeat it.  Betting on exceptions to the rule versus the rule, it is a risky proposition, especially in a post steroid era.

Well said..I agree with everything you wrote.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

And an excellent example of the above is Oscar Colas. His trade value was significantly higher a year ago than it is today. He’s also 25 right now but had a s%*# showing for the white sox last season. Today, no one would seriously consider him as a second piece in a trade for a pitcher like Cease. Same could easily happen to Ortiz even if he gets 250 PAs this season, which I don’t see happening at all. Just sayin, haven’t seen that possibility discussed by Orioles fans when it’s an even greater likelihood than Cease getting hurt between now and July. And that’s why including a guy like Ortiz as a THIRD piece for the Orioles makes a lot of sense if the Sox are even interested. But honestly, it makes more sense to trade Ortiz in a deal for a far lesser SP.

[Baron]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Show me how.  And show me the actual words. Not how your brain tries to interpret something…because you are awful at that.

I have never once said you guys shouldn’t be looking to gain upside guys. I have said that I don’t think the Os are the best match for you because of that.  I have said the Os should trade one of the OFers most of you want. I have said that Ortiz shouldn’t be someone you target and he is someone that some Os fans are overrating in terms of his value in this package.

I actually agree with most of the points on here by those of you who actually have good points. 

So, show me. Prove your point with actual proof.

There it is. 

You said it was a problem that we were and that it can lead to failure. What was the point of that entire post on the last page then? You don't think all of us White Sox fans don't know this by now having a complete rebuild fail? Was that last post needed? It doesn't seem like it other than either 1) You hedging your arguments 2) Needlessly posting information that we already know to try and condescend to us once again. 

[Downtown Brown]

2 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I have no doubt the White Sox would have taken him if the Red Sox didn’t.

You should. From what I understand, the big dogs had Gonzalez over Teel. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And an excellent example of the above is Oscar Colas. His trade value was significantly higher a year ago than it is today. He’s also 25 right now but had a s%*# showing for the white sox last season. Today, no one would seriously consider him as a second piece in a trade for a pitcher like Cease. Same could easily happen to Ortiz even if he gets 250 PAs this season, which I don’t see happening at all. Just sayin, haven’t seen that possibility discussed by Orioles fans when it’s an even greater likelihood than Cease getting hurt between now and July. And that’s why including a guy like Ortiz as a THIRD piece for the Orioles makes a lot of sense if the Sox are even interested. But honestly, it makes more sense to trade Ortiz in a deal for a far lesser SP.

Plenty of Os fans feel this way about Ortiz but as with any fan base, you have the over the top, everything is going to be great fans. You have those fans too. Every team does.

The semantics of what number piece he is gets a little over the top. Let’s just say, for example, the deal on the table is Westburg, Ortiz and Beavers. (os aren’t trading Westburg and Ortiz in the same deal but just for discussion purposes)

Is Ortiz the second piece or the third piece? That’s in the eye of the beholder. Some may have him 2 and some may have him 3.

You aren’t getting a second piece that is definitively better than him because that would mean the first piece is far better than the second piece and that’s not a level of value you are getting for Cease.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There are 2 ways:

1) Westburg is traded. If that happens, he’s starting on the IF somewhere most games.

2) As of right now, the Os could start him everyday. They have vets like Mateo and Urias who could see time themselves but as of today, they have an open IF spot. They have 2 current everyday infielders who can play multiple IF positions in Westburg and Henderson. 
 

The obvious issue with #2 is when does the team bring up Holliday. Personally, I don’t think he’s brought up until they have cleared the likely super 2 threshold and, more importantly, lessened his at bats to the point where placing in the top 2 in ROy voting becomes tough to do and thus they get the extra year. This didn’t work out with Rutschman, so I suspect they show more caution with Holliday. 
 

However, there’s a chance they don’t and he is brought up sooner. If that’s the case, then playing time for Ortiz will be harder to come by.

Westburg or Ortiz really need to be dealt imo..Westburg has more value, so he is the guy who should go. I like him but not really anymore than Ortiz.

Why are you certain that Ortiz is ahead of Mateo and Urias this season? Those two are only 2-3 years older than Ortiz but have already proven they’re positive WAR players in mlb (something Ortiz has yet to prove).

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Baron said:

There it is. 

You said it was a problem that we were and that it can lead to failure. What was the point of that entire post on the last page then? You don't think all of us White Sox fans don't know this by now having a complete rebuild fail? Was that last post needed? It doesn't seem like it other than either 1) You hedging your arguments 2) Needlessly posting information that we already know to try and condescend to us once again. 

Do you work for CNN because you are “reporting” a lot of bs.

In not being condescending at all. I’m just address a post and talking about the merits of proven, older prospects vs younger, less proven guys.

The idea that you are making a big deal about that is your own problem. 

[T R U]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Plenty of Os fans feel this way about Ortiz but as with any fan base, you have the over the top, everything is going to be great fans. You have those fans too. Every team does.

The semantics of what number piece he is gets a little over the top. Let’s just say, for example, the deal on the table is Westburg, Ortiz and Beavers. (os aren’t trading Westburg and Ortiz in the same deal but just for discussion purposes)

Is Ortiz the second piece or the third piece? That’s in the eye of the beholder. Some may have him 2 and some may have him 3.

You aren’t getting a second piece that is definitively better than him because that would mean the first piece is far better than the second piece and that’s not a level of value you are getting for Cease.

They will absolutely get 2 pcs definitively better than Ortiz when he is eventually traded, no doubt about it.

[WestEddy]

46 minutes ago, Baron said:

I'm guessing the insults about our reading comprehension are coming up next because that's the order of things. 

I am preparing for the sting of a "posting from my mom's basement" zinger. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Why are you certain that Ortiz is ahead of Mateo and Urias this season? Those two are only 2-3 years older than Ortiz but have already proven they’re positive WAR players in mlb (something Ortiz has yet to prove).

Well I’m sure those 2 vets will get their time here and there but Mateo can’t hit and his glove isn’t better than Ortiz. Urias sees time everywhere and will spell guys but he’s not an everyday player. 
 

Elias has said that Ortiz will be an everyday SS. I don’t buy that he will be long term for the Os because of Holliday but he can certainly handle second as well.

Now, he has to hit. If he comes up and struggles with the bat, he will be nothing more than a UTI player at best. But with his glove, he doesn’t have to hit much to be worth a lot to a team. I mean, Mateo was a 3+ WAR player a few years ago and his bat is awful.

[Baron]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Do you work for CNN because you are “reporting” a lot of bs.

In not being condescending at all. I’m just address a post and talking about the merits of proven, older prospects vs younger, less proven guys.

The idea that you are making a big deal about that is your own problem. 

What am I reporting? 

How do you think we don't know this already? None of that needed to be addressed. You first start off in your previous post by saying you agree that we should be looking at younger prospects. Then a short time later you say that the problem is that we are looking at younger prospects and that they can potentially fail. Trades can fail. Thank you for stating the obvious if that was the true intention of your last post. Glad we got that all cleared up. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Baron said:

What am I reporting? 

How do you think we don't know this already? None of that needed to be addressed. You first start off in your previous post by saying you agree that we should be looking at younger prospects. Then a short time later you say that the problem is that we are looking at younger prospects and that they can potentially fail. Trades can fail. Thank you for stating the obvious if that was the true intention of your last post. Glad we got that all cleared up. 

Ok I’m glad too.  Your satisfaction is my top priority.

Edited January 17 by Sports Guy

[Baron]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok I’m glad too.  Your satisfaction is my top priority.

It should be. Make yourself useful around here.

I'll ask again why did that need to be addressed? If you didn't simply forget your argument from how ever many pages ago. You thought that White Sox fans who just got out of a rebuild that had prospects fail needed to be told that younger players can fail. That really was your true intention of that post correct? 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, T R U said:

They will absolutely get 2 pcs definitively better than Ortiz when he is eventually traded, no doubt about it.

You might but if you do, I doubt you are getting more than that(ie not 3-4 total players)..of course, it depends on how you are defining that and who is defining it. In other words, are you saying someone is definitively better because of age?  Are you saying it because of performance?  Scouting reports?  
 

[Nardiwashere]

4 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I am preparing for the sting of a "posting from my mom's basement" zinger. 

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Do you work for CNN because you are “reporting” a lot of bs.

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok I’m glad too.  Your satisfaction is my top priority.

 

[Quin]

53 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Do you whine this much in real life?

No, because it takes a tremendous amount of arrogance or stupidity to reach my threshold and you've broken the sound barrier with the speed of Ricky Henderson on coffee laced with cocaine.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Baron said:

It should be. Make yourself useful around here.

I'll ask again why did that need to be addressed? If you didn't simply forget your argument from how ever many pages ago. You thought that White Sox fans who just got out of a rebuild that had prospects fail needed to be told that younger players can fail. That really was your true intention of that post correct? 

The common theme amongst you guys (as a group, not individually) is that you must hit on this trade. Cease is one of your few trade chips that can bring back talent and some would rather hold him, despite the risk, to bring back what you feel is the max value for him.

In your same breath, some are saying that you would prefer higher upside players for him. For the most part, those are going to be further away, younger prospects. I would assume you agree with that.

So, if it’s so important to hit on this trade, the question is, why would you want lower floor players that could easily blow up in your face and you end up with nothing?

I like the high ceiling type guys..I don’t need top 100 players. Years ago, when the Os traded Machado, I wanted Dustin May, who wasn’t a top 100 guy. Many Os fans were fixated on the idea of a top 100 prospect. Not me..I wanted the upside.

Im not saying it’s wrong to want that. Just saying that there is  another side to that. 
 

[T R U]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

You might but if you do, I doubt you are getting more than that(ie not 3-4 total players)..of course, it depends on how you are defining that and who is defining it. In other words, are you saying someone is definitively better because of age?  Are you saying it because of performance?  Scouting reports?  
 

By scouting reports/general prospect rankings. I believe the trade will be for 3-4 prospects and be structured something like this

2 high end guys, 1 mid tier guy

OR

1 high end guy, 2 mid tier guys, 1 back end guy

Listen, its going to happen barring an arm explosion from Cease. We just saw Giolito get traded for a top 100 guy and another of a teams top 5 prospects. This was for 2 months. There really is no scenario where the return for Cease is a light as some of you guys are making it seem.

When it happens, no idea. Its going to happen eventually.

[Baron]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

The common theme amongst you guys (as a group, not individually) is that you must hit on this trade. Cease is one of your few trade chips that can bring back talent and some would rather hold him, despite the risk, to bring back what you feel is the max value for him.

In your same breath, some are saying that you would prefer higher upside players for him. For the most part, those are going to be further away, younger prospects. I would assume you agree with that.

So, if it’s so important to hit on this trade, the question is, why would you want lower floor players that could easily blow up in your face and you end up with nothing?

I like the high ceiling type guys..I don’t need top 100 players. Years ago, when the Os traded Machado, I wanted Dustin May, who wasn’t a top 100 guy. Many Os fans were fixated on the idea of a top 100 prospect. Not me..I wanted the upside.

Im not saying it’s wrong to want that. Just saying that there is  another side to that. 
 

and this was answered apparently with your fellow poster on the O's board. The timeline which has been harped on ad nauseum is the reason. 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, T R U said:

By scouting reports/general prospect rankings. I believe the trade will be for 3-4 prospects and be structured something like this

2 high end guys, 1 mid tier guy

OR

1 high end guy, 2 mid tier guys, 1 back end guy

Listen, its going to happen barring an arm explosion from Cease. We just saw Giolito get traded for a top 100 guy and another of a teams top 5 prospects. This was for 2 months. There really is no scenario where the return for Cease is a light as some of you guys are making it seem.

When it happens, no idea. Its going to happen eventually.

I don’t think the return is going to be light at all. I just don’t define light the same way you do. I do think there are Os fans out there that are completely undervaluing Cease, just as I think some of you are completely overvaluing him. Of course, that’s exactly what you would expect.

I don’t mean this in any bad way but us (you, me, whoever) saying high end, mid tier, etc…doesn’t have a lot of meaning.  I say that simply because we can define that differently (I use the same words, so again this isn’t me bashing your choice of words or anything)

 

for example, my offer would be Westburg, Beavers, Povich and either a ML ready bat like Stowers (big time left handed power bat) or a prospect like Jud Fabian or Max Wagner…someone with some holes in their game but could develop into an every day MLer.

I know some of you see that as light. The one thing I do agree that it likely lacks (I say likely because you never know if a player just blows up) a really high ceiling guy but barring you getting some 19 or 20 year old who grows and develops in the best case scenario, I don’t think you are getting that player in this deal.

So, I don’t think that’s a trade that someone beats. I do think it’s a trade that someone like the Yankees can match and then that comes down to the types of players you are getting, do you want guys closer to being ML ready, etc…

If that’s “it”, do you run the risk of keeping him and seeing what happens? Maybe. I agree with anyone saying his value could go up. It absolutely could and holding him could pay huge dividends. OTOH, it could also blow up in your face and you end up with nothing. That’s a big blow to you guys.

[WestEddy]

One day, I will be old. I will be detaching from those gathered around me, coma-like, but periodically responsive. Nieces and nephews will whisper how I was special in their lives, hoping to convey any message to me before I leave. My eyes will open, and I will lock in on one person with what looks like clarity. I will squeeze a hand, and an ear will come close to my mouth. 

"What is it, Uncle?!?"

"..... Cowser ..... Nor....."

"Norby can't be a second piece, Uncle Eddy. We've told you that a hundred times!!"

[T R U]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think the return is going to be light at all. I just don’t define light the same way you do. I do think there are Os fans out there that are completely undervaluing Cease, just as I think some of you are completely overvaluing him. Of course, that’s exactly what you would expect.

I don’t mean this in any bad way but us (you, me, whoever) saying high end, mid tier, etc…doesn’t have a lot of meaning.  I say that simply because we can define that differently (I use the same words, so again this isn’t me bashing your choice of words or anything)

 

for example, my offer would be Westburg, Beavers, Povich and either a ML ready bat like Stowers (big time left handed power bat) or a prospect like Jud Fabian or Max Wagner…someone with some holes in their game but could develop into an every day MLer.

I know some of you see that as light. The one thing I do agree that it likely lacks (I say likely because you never know if a player just blows up) a really high ceiling guy but barring you getting some 19 or 20 year old who grows and develops in the best case scenario, I don’t think you are getting that player in this deal.

So, I don’t think that’s a trade that someone beats. I do think it’s a trade that someone like the Yankees can match and then that comes down to the types of players you are getting, do you want guys closer to being ML ready, etc…

If that’s “it”, do you run the risk of keeping him and seeing what happens? Maybe. I agree with anyone saying his value could go up. It absolutely could and holding him could pay huge dividends. OTOH, it could also blow up in your face and you end up with nothing. That’s a big blow to you guys.

I don't want to hold him at all, I think it would be stupid to take that risk when you are clearly not attempting to compete this coming season and you will not resign the player. I don't see a worthwhile gain from waiting until the deadline to trade him, its not moving the needle enough to hold him. The juice isn't worth the squeeze.

[ptatc]

30 minutes ago, Quin said:

No, because it takes a tremendous amount of arrogance or stupidity to reach my threshold and you've broken the sound barrier with the speed of Ricky Henderson on coffee laced with cocaine.

Actually back then the coffee was laced with amphetamines. We had 2 pots of coffee in the clubhouse labeled leaded and unleaded. To the lay person it was caffeinated and decaf. It was really amphetamines or no amphetamines.