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Cease To Padres per Passan


Chicago White Sox

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17 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’m really worried for you guys.  If Elias keeps hugging and doesn’t add a quality SP, I think there is real risk of the O’s being the odd man out of the AL playoff race if they experience any sort of bad luck (injury, regression, etc).  Hopefully he comes to his senses and adds a high end starter, but it doesn’t seem like he is a very reasonable person.  Admittedly he’s very good at identifying & developing young talent, but he seems to lack the killer instinct that GMs who are serious about winning championships typically have.

Well, to say he’s not being reasonable is pretty absurd because you have no idea what he is offering or trying to do elsewhere.

That said, I share the same concerns. Right now, I think the Os are an 85-95 win team. Lots of things can go right or wrong to determine where in that range they will fall. Getting another real pitcher matters in that…and it really matters for the playoffs. 

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Also, I don’t buy for a second that Marcus Stroman is stopping the Yankees from adding Dylan Cease.  While the national media does typically overrate their prospects, there is still a lot to like there and they offer us much more ceiling than the Orioles.  TBH, every time I dive deep into their top 10 or so guys, the more I like them more than the second tier stuff the O’s have to offer.

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16 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

It's exactly like Preller.

Great at identifying talent.

Terrible with finishing trades and strategizing team chemistry.

Of course a much bigger financial playpen under Seidler.  He basically threw a hissy fit when he missed out on Judge and other top targets so decided to throw money at Bogaerts just to make a splash when they already had 4-5 on the roster capable of playing SS.

That left the bench and bullpen and back of rotation well short.

 

The jury is still out on whether Yalie Elias will blink when the pressure is on at some point...not to be perceived as taking a backwards step with the rebuild.

Kimbrel just seems like an awful awful awful move.

Baltimore has the same momentum the Blue Jays and White Sox and Padres all had in 2019-2021.

No guarantees they can keep it with a penny pinching approach.

Especially in that hyper-competitive division.

Preller has balls of steel though…Elias is completely afraid to lose a deal.  AJ may be a total prick and failed to get over that final hump, but god damn you got to respect his aggressiveness in trying to get SD a championship.

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18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, to say he’s not being reasonable is pretty absurd because you have no idea what he is offering or trying to do elsewhere.

That said, I share the same concerns. Right now, I think the Os are an 85-95 win team. Lots of things can go right or wrong to determine where in that range they will fall. Getting another real pitcher matters in that…and it really matters for the playoffs. 

Agree…and I don’t think anything below 88 wins will cut it in the AL next year (unless you are the Twins of course).

Let me ask you this.  What would your 2026 lineup look like if you didn’t have Kjerstad & Westburg.  Who is starting where and what depth would you have in the event of some young guys busting?

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

No, I’m not doing anything that your mind is going to.  

Im merely saying that many(I can’t speak for all fans and not all fans feel this way, thus why I am using the word many) fans would spend more for those guys because they either perceive them to be better and/or have more service time (ie like Luzardo).

I actually don’t want Framber at all. He has too much noise in some of his stats that he doesn’t excite me. And I wouldn’t pay the price for Luzardo unless they are taking ML pieces back…I don’t trust his durability. 
 

And they wouldn’t have to deal Holliday to get Valdez but Mayo is possible for sure. 

I'm not really asking you to speak for any fans. Yes, Valdez does look like a more consistent, very good pitcher. And Luzardo has flashes of dominance when he's actually on the mound. That's why I mentioned the two of them, because they would seem like more consistently dominant pitchers than Cease. 

I don't care if you'd trade for Valdez or Luzardo. That wasn't my point. My point was that they would not only cost more, but the pain of the price tag would be proportional. If Valdez is worth more because he seems more consistently dominant, why would anybody think Houston would be "cool", and more reasonable, especially considering the obvious problem with Houston trading Valdez to the Orioles I mentioned and you ignored? 

To use your own logic, if there was a better deal out there for a reasonably equal or better pitcher to Cease, wouldn't Baltimore have taken it? 

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20 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Agree…and I don’t think anything below 88 wins will cut it in the AL next year (unless you are the Twins of course).

Let me ask you this.  What would your 2026 lineup look like if you didn’t have Kjerstad & Westburg.  Who is starting where and what depth would you have in the event of some young guys busting?

Adley, Gunnar, Holliday, Holliday and Mayo are the definites.

Cowser and Ortiz likely.

Bradfield is probably a likely but obviously need to see more of him.

Beyond those guys, players like Horvath, Beavers and Norby factor in as well.

The Os also have some very interesting young intl guys that are showing great signs. You just never know what direction they go.

All of that being said, that’s obviously relying on all these guys developing and while it’s possible, historically it’s not likely.

So they will likely have to add from outside the org.

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15 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I'm not really asking you to speak for any fans. Yes, Valdez does look like a more consistent, very good pitcher. And Luzardo has flashes of dominance when he's actually on the mound. That's why I mentioned the two of them, because they would seem like more consistently dominant pitchers than Cease. 

I don't care if you'd trade for Valdez or Luzardo. That wasn't my point. My point was that they would not only cost more, but the pain of the price tag would be proportional. If Valdez is worth more because he seems more consistently dominant, why would anybody think Houston would be "cool", and more reasonable, especially considering the obvious problem with Houston trading Valdez to the Orioles I mentioned and you ignored? 

To use your own logic, if there was a better deal out there for a reasonably equal or better pitcher to Cease, wouldn't Baltimore have taken it? 

What exactly did I ignore? I must have missed something because I don’t see what I ignored. It wasn’t intentional if I did.

You started this off by asking don’t they know that Luzardo or Valdez is going to cost more?  My answer is yes they do and they are ok with it.

Now, I will say if the cost is Holliday, the answer would be no but no Os fan believes that to be the case. Not saying they are right or wrong, just telling you the thought process. 
 

For me, there are only 2 options..Cease or one of the Marlins pitchers, with Cabrera being the most likely. I’m not really interested in the other 2 “big names”.

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8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Adley, Gunnar, Holliday, Holliday and Mayo are the definites.

Cowser and Ortiz likely.

Bradfield is probably a likely but obviously need to see more of him.

Beyond those guys, players like Horvath, Beavers and Norby factor in as well.

The Os also have some very interesting young intl guys that are showing great signs. You just never know what direction they go.

All of that being said, that’s obviously relying on all these guys developing and while it’s possible, historically it’s not likely.

So they will likely have to add from outside the org.

So you’re basically saying you have this in place for 2026:

  • 1B: Basallo
  • 2B: Ortiz
  • SS: Holliday
  • 3B: Henderson
  • LF: Mayo
  • CF: Bradfield
  • RF: Cowser
  • CA: Rutschman
  • DH: Mountcastle

With Norby, Beavers, & Horvath as likely fall back options plus three 1st round picks this year and other LatAm guys who could emerge.

Just give us Kjerstad & Westburg for Cease and let’s call it a day.  You get to keep all your main studs, keep all your positional depth, and all your pitching prospects.  And when Cease leaves after the 2025 season, you will get another 1st round pick to add to your endless stable of draft assets.

I know you can feel it in your heart it’s the right thing to do.  If Getz weren’t such a nice guy, he’d be demanding Mayo in a deal and rightfully so.  But at the end of the day, this is a very happy compromise for both sides.  Just say yes so we can put an end to this cycle of circular debates.

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5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So you’re basically saying you have this in place for 2026:

  • 1B: Basallo
  • 2B: Ortiz
  • SS: Holliday
  • 3B: Henderson
  • LF: Mayo
  • CF: Bradfield
  • RF: Cowser
  • CA: Rutschman
  • DH: Mountcastle

With Norby, Beavers, & Horvath as likely fall back options plus three 1st round picks this year and other LatAm guys who could emerge.

Just give us Kjerstad & Westburg for Cease and let’s call it a day.  You get to keep all your main studs, keep all your positional depth, and all your pitching prospects.  And when Cease leaves after the 2025 season, you will get another 1st round pick to add to your endless stable of draft assets.

I know you can feel it in your heart it’s the right thing to do.  If Getz weren’t such a nice guy, he’d be demanding Mayo in a deal and rightfully so.  But at the end of the day, this is a very happy compromise for both sides.  Just say yes so we can put an end to this cycle of circular debates.

Well first of all, Mountcastle will not be on the team. 

Secondly, you seem to have this idea that just because we have depth that we should just trade more than we should. You are essentially saying to trade 2 top 50 prospects for Cease when it’s likely not even one top 50 prospect is on the table.

Now, with all of that being said, I may consider this depending on what else is available and what else it would take to get that player.

It’s an interesting thought though. I think of a lot of scenarios and one thing to consider here would be, would you rather have Kjerstad or Westburg or Beavers/Povich/unnamed prospect. Depending on who that prospect is, you may prefer that package vs one of them.

I have to say, I don’t hate it as much as I think I would have but thinking about it more makes me think it may not be a bad way to go.

I know what most others on our board would say but it’s a discussion worth having imo.

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https://www.mlb.com/news/hot-stove-market-update-january-2024

I would say Cease doesn’t get moved at this point,” an NL executive said. “The White Sox are not budging on price, and teams don’t seem to have interest in paying that price.”

“I think [the Guardians] keep Bieber,” an AL executive said.

While Cease and Bieber have seemingly been on the trade block for the whole winter, a source said the Marlins have been open to discussing deals involving Jesús Luzardo and Edward Cabrera. Beyond those four, a source indicated that “few starting pitchers are being dangled” by clubs, contributing to the high asking prices.

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“Nicky” Ortiz is never starting over Westburg on a consistent basis.  Nice try pretending that’s the #1 option on the table to “boost” his viability with Sox fans though.

Point 2, the Padres can easily come up with a better trade package than the Orioles are supposedly/apparently offering and Preller has never hesitated to make a trade…not once.

But Cease could be the very first time at least since 2015 that he hesitates to pull the trigger.

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He’s not getting moved and that’s fine with me, if you have a price that hasn’t been met, take the gamble and see what happens come the deadline. I’m sure the O’s or others have offered a nice package but not enough to move the needle for the Sox. 

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5 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

 

Go get a RF and win the division, already. 

Michael Taylor would be better than some of the names listed.

Or Puig in RF for selling tickets.  Put him together with Bauer until real prospects arrive in 2025.  Puig was in Korea 2022 and two Winter Leagues 2023-24.

Might as well turn this team into the circus just for entertainment value.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=puig--000yas

Just 33 and would be much more fun than 85% of Sox hitters still.

Bring back Clevinger too and let’s win this thing!!!!!

Edited by caulfield12
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I would love to know what has been offered for Cease from other clubs.

For most of this thread, I have been under the assumption that there haven't been strong offers and Getz has been waiting it out to improve on that.

I am now starting to feel like they have gotten good, strong offers and Getz is just not budging from some kind of ridiculous ask he is staying firm on.

 

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