almagest Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, caulfield12 said: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/baltimore-orioles/anthony-santander-21318/ Not exactly...UFA next year. Oh, my bad. Misread BBRef. Then they probably won't get much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said: My god…Canfield with an absolute kill shot here! The entire Hangout is now in shambles! The argument is misleading in a lot of ways but the one thing it should tell Os fans is that Cease is a good talent. The short sightedness by some of the fans is really mind boggling to me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, Sports Guy said: No, I’m saying most teams (if any) don’t have 4 starters better than Kremer. That’s an absolute fact. Why does that matter when the only thing Balt is worried about is having #3-4 playoff caliber starters? You're still two short. TJ recovering pitchers should never be counted on 100% in their first full seasons back, btw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 (edited) 2 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: Thank god Orioles Hangout has moved on to Luzardo as their primary trade target. They’re debating the value of Santander in a trade for Luzardo lol. Good luck with that exercise fellas. The Marlins will likely want ML talent back for Luzardo, as they are trying to win and want offensive help now. They have also been after Santander for the last year. That being said, they have a new GM now and he is now that much more expensive and only one more year of service time. In other words, who the hell knows if they would want him. I think Luzardo is a bad target personally but people are obsessed with the extra year of service time compared to Cease. Edited January 19 by Sports Guy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, almagest said: Oh, my bad. Misread BBRef. Then they probably won't get much. He's an 800ish OPS player for $11 million and honestly what the Sox expected to get in Benintendi... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Why does that matter when the only thing Balt is worried about is having #3-4 playoff caliber starters? You're still two short. TJ recovering pitchers should never be counted on 100% in their first full seasons back, btw. You are preaching to the choir. We have posters that feel since the team won 101 games last year that we are being handed a playoff spot. At least, that’s the attitude they have in their posts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Sports Guy said: The Marlins will likely want ML talent back for Luzardo, as they are trying to win and want offensive help now. They have also been after Santander for the last year. That being said, they have a new GM now and he is now that much more expensive and only one more year of service time. In other words, who the hell knows if they would want him. I think Luzardo is a bad target personally but people are obsessed with the extra year of service time compared to Cease. What are Luzardo/Cabrera and Chisholm worth in O's prospects? Surely you won't offer a Top 5 guy again in your system? Starts with Ortiz again, right? Don't tell us you're not a big believer in the Jazz Man? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 Just now, Sports Guy said: No, I’m saying most teams (if any) don’t have 4 starters better than Kremer. That’s an absolute fact. But plenty of teams do have better #4 starters than Kremer. And I have no idea how you could honestly believe otherwise and say so with such conviction. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, caulfield12 said: What are Luzardo/Cabrera and Chisholm worth in O's prospects? Surely you won't offer a Top 5 guy again in your system? Starts with Ortiz again, right? Don't tell us you're not a big believer in the Jazz Man? Personally, I'm not really a fan and still confused why he was the one chosen as the cover athlete for MLB The Show 23. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: What are Luzardo/Cabrera and Chisholm worth in O's prospects? Surely you won't offer a Top 5 guy again in your system? Starts with Ortiz again, right? Don't tell us you're not a big believer in the Jazz Man? Why would we go after Jazz? I don’t have interest in him. Cabrera would be my target. He won’t cost nearly the packages we are talking about because of his durability and command/control question marks but the upside is really strong and so is the service time. What would I trade for him? I don’t know. There are tons of scenarios that make sense, so I think there are lots of ways to get a deal done there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: You are preaching to the choir. We have posters that feel since the team won 101 games last year that we are being handed a playoff spot. At least, that’s the attitude they have in their posts. Sounds exactly like 2019-21 White Sox fans. Big difference is they lacked Holliday and a ton of terrible exploding vet contracts lurking on their roster to sabotage things... White Sox simply ran out of second and third wave prospect depth...couldn't afford Rodon (wise in both that case and Abreu) but then Madrigal Vaughn Crochet Burger all underachieved in various ways with no depth behind to replace them. Baltimore seems to have much better timing...to replace their vets and get much younger rather than older. They need their own version of the Jon Lester trade to the Cubs to demonstrate to the AL East how serious they are...but still scarred by a terrible Chris Davis long term signing ages ago that scarred the franchise. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: Why would we go after Jazz? I don’t have interest in him. Cabrera would be my target. He won’t cost nearly the packages we are talking about because of his durability and command/control question marks but the upside is really strong and so is the service time. What would I trade for him? I don’t know. There are tons of scenarios that make sense, so I think there are lots of ways to get a deal done there. The Orioles' brand is dynamic aggression...Mullins Chisholm Mateo all fit that mold of player. He's a plug and play guy all over the diamond that brings a combination of power and speed missing from the majority of your prospects other than Bradfield. Kjerstad and Mayo are plodders. That's perfectly fine as long as they put up 850-875 ops numbers. But you still need to be able to manufacture runs too. Edited January 19 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirmin' for Yermin Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: No, I’m saying most teams (if any) don’t have 4 starters better than Kremer. That’s an absolute fact. And again, I’m not a big Kremer fan. I want to deal him and most Os fans think that’s crazy but his actual performance since the second half of 2022 is pretty solid. Dean Kremer had a 4.51 FIP last year. Not sure if you knew that. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: But plenty of teams do have better #4 starters than Kremer. And I have no idea how you could honestly believe otherwise and say so with such conviction. Kremer was 87th in the majors in fWAR for pitchers who threw at least 100 innings. Only 44 starters qualified in all of MLB..Kremer was one of them. Being durable and available is important. He was 39th in fWAR amongst those starters. He pitched to a 3.25 ERA in the second half of last year. In 2022, he had a 3.55 ERA in the second half. So, over his last 256 IP, he has an ERA of about 3.9. So yea, he’s not a bad pitcher and you would be hard pressed to find teams with 4 starters better than him. Hell, most teams don’t even have 3 starters better, especially if you place importance on durability, which you should. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Sounds exactly like 2019-21 White Sox fans. Big difference is they lacked Holliday and a ton of terrible exploding vet contracts lurking on their roster to sabotage things... White Sox simply ran out of second and third wave prospect depth...couldn't afford Rodon (wise in both that case and Abreu) but then Madrigal Vaughn Crochet Burger all underachieved in various ways with no depth behind to replace them. Baltimore seems to have much better timing...to replace their vets and get much younger rather than older. They need their own version of the Jon Lester trade to the Cubs to demonstrate to the AL East how serious they are...but still scarred by a terrible Chris Davis long term signing ages ago that scarred the franchise. Well the Os are a far better org right now than the WS were. Our system is better (even after bringing up a lot of guys), our development is better, scouting, etc.. I’m not worried about falling apart like you guys did. What I am worried about is not capitalizing on success and watching that success be more what happened to us in 2013 and 2015…the Os went to the playoffs in 2012 and were arguably the best team in the AL in 2014 (until their awful ALcS showing) but they didn’t do anything following those years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Sports Guy said: Kremer was 87th in the majors in fWAR for pitchers who threw at least 100 innings. Only 44 starters qualified in all of MLB..Kremer was one of them. Being durable and available is important. He was 39th in fWAR amongst those starters. He pitched to a 3.25 ERA in the second half of last year. In 2022, he had a 3.55 ERA in the second half. So, over his last 256 IP, he has an ERA of about 3.9. So yea, he’s not a bad pitcher and you would be hard pressed to find teams with 4 starters better than him. Hell, most teams don’t even have 3 starters better, especially if you place importance on durability, which you should. Heck, if you could afford Gibson you would have five starters who are/were theoretically better. The problem is that not even the Twins of past years when he was really in his prime really trusted him 100% to start a playoff game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said: Dean Kremer had a 4.51 FIP last year. Not sure if you knew that. I do know that but that is a predictive stat and it says he’s likely to regress this year..something I agree with. However, I’m talking about what he actually did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 (edited) 10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: The Orioles' brand is dynamic aggression...Mullins Chisholm Mateo all fit that mold of player. He's a plug and play guy all over the diamond that brings power and speed missing from the majority of your prospects other than Brad field. Kjerstad and Mayo are plodders. First of all, those guys aren’t plodders. They aren’t speed demons but they move really well. Kjerstad has some excellent home to third times this year, for example. (I want to say 12-13 seconds) Part of the reason they feel Mayo will work in the OF is because of his athleticism and the idea that he is quick enough out there. Mateo has one foot out the door. The Os are just using what they have. Zero interest in Jazz. He’s not needed. Edited January 19 by Sports Guy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Sports Guy said: Well the Os are a far better org right now than the WS were. Our system is better (even after bringing up a lot of guys), our development is better, scouting, etc.. I’m not worried about falling apart like you guys did. What I am worried about is not capitalizing on success and watching that success be more what happened to us in 2013 and 2015…the Os went to the playoffs in 2012 and were arguably the best team in the AL in 2014 (until their awful ALcS showing) but they didn’t do anything following those years. The Padres Blue Jays and Sox fans have all said the same exact thing in recent years. The White Sox at one point had 9 Top 100 guys. You are at just 6. The crown jewel in Holliday has to be a lot better than guys like Moncada and Buxton and Kelenic and even Witt, Jr. That's a heavy burden of expectation to wear. Thankfully Balt media doesn't chew up and spit out young players like the major markets do. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: First of all, those guys aren’t plodders. They aren’t speed demons but they move really well. Kjerstad has some excellent home to third times this year, for example. (I want to say 12-13 seconds) Part of the reason they feel Mayo will work in the OF is because of his athleticism and the idea that he is quick enough out there. Mateo has one foot out the door. The Os are just using what they have. Zero interest in Jazz. He’s not needed. Then why is Kjerstad rated so poorly on defense? He sounds like a cross between Aviv Garcia and Hunter Renfroe...he just can't quickly accelerate to full speed but does fine once he gets started? Fast but not quick? Without Mateo...and if Mullins is hurt, your base running is considerably less threatening/intimidating to opposing pitchers. That leaves you with an Earl Weaver three run homer type of offense not unlike Houston recently. Edited January 19 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirmin' for Yermin Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: No, I’m saying most teams (if any) don’t have 4 starters better than Kremer. That’s an absolute fact. And again, I’m not a big Kremer fan. I want to deal him and most Os fans think that’s crazy but his actual performance since the second half of 2022 is pretty solid. Because you've stated at least twice now that Kremer is the best #4 starter in the league, I decided since I'm snowed in, to waste 1 hour of my life researching this for you and also me. Rays - Baz/Bradley (I think everyone would take the Rays). Blue Jays - Kikuchi (Had a .41 better FIP than Kremer) Yankees - Stroman (Yankees easy here, obviously). Red Sox - Houck (I'll give Kremer the win here, despite Houck having a better FIP). +1 Twins - I don't think they even have one yet. (Kremer obvious win here). +1 Tigers - Faedo (Kremer easy win here) +1 Guardians - Logan Allen (I'd take Allen here pretty easily) White Sox - Soroka (Obvious Kremer win here) +1 Royals - Lynch (Kremer easy win) +1 Astros - Urquidy (I would take Urquidy here given a better track record, but I'll call it a 'push') +.5 Rangers - Jon Gray/Mahle (Rangers win here pretty easily) Mariners - Woo/Miller (Easy Mariners win) Angels - Sandova (Kremer win here) +1 Athletics - Not even wasting my time. (Kremer win) +1 Braves - Sale (Braves win) Phillies - Suarez (Pretty easy Suarez win) Marlins - Garrett (Braxton garrett breakthrough last 2 years. win marlins) Mets - Quintana (This is an easy Quintana win given the track record) Nationals - Corbin (Easy Kremer win) +1 Brewers - Miley (This is a Miley win assuming health) Cubs - Shoto Imanga (I'll give this to Kremer since Imanga is a wild card, and I'm being nice). +1 Reds - Lively (Kremer win) +1 Pirates - Oviedo (Oviedo had a slightly better FIP, I'm going 'push' here) +.5 Cardinals - Gibson (former Oriole, easy win for Gibson) Dodgers - Not wasting my time (They have 10 better probably lol. Kremer loss) Diamonbacks - Pfaadt (Give me Pfaadt all day) Padres - Waldron (Kremer win) +1 Giants - Ray (Ray easy) Rockies - Hudson (Kremer easy) +1 So by the count of this, I personally have Kremer better than 13 other #4 (per depth charts currently). This ranks him #17, which is indeed close to #1, like you insinuated, if you remove the 7. I am mad you made me do this. But you made me. 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champagne030 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 59 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: If it's the RSN thing causing less spending ,wouldn't you think that Cease being fairly inexpensive would work to the Sox advantage ? I understand it also might make prospects more valuable also but I would also think your older and defensively challenged types prospects will start to lose some of their value too. I think that's why the Dodgers acted on Busch. The Orioles just received over $100M this past summer from MASN for the 2012-2016 seasons. They're going to get more than that this summer for the 2017-2021 seasons (and who knows how much for the 2022-26 seasons). The fact that Baltimore ownership has a self imposed salary cap of $75-80M is criminal. The Hideout (or whatever it's called) should be bitching about that and not complaining about giving up prospects instead of signing a free agent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirmin' for Yermin Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said: Kremer was 87th in the majors in fWAR for pitchers who threw at least 100 innings. Only 44 starters qualified in all of MLB..Kremer was one of them. Being durable and available is important. He was 39th in fWAR amongst those starters. He pitched to a 3.25 ERA in the second half of last year. In 2022, he had a 3.55 ERA in the second half. So, over his last 256 IP, he has an ERA of about 3.9. So yea, he’s not a bad pitcher and you would be hard pressed to find teams with 4 starters better than him. Hell, most teams don’t even have 3 starters better, especially if you place importance on durability, which you should. Anyone who pitches lots of innings racks up fWAR... We had that with Reynaldo Lopez yearssss back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Then why is Kjerstad rated so poorly on defense? He sounds like a cross between Aviv Garcia and Hunter Renfroe...he just can't quickly accelerate to full speed but does fine once he gets started? Fast but not quick? https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/50186-orioles-2023-4-prospect-heston-kjerstad-rf/#comment-3049835 That’s a good scouting report to give you an idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sports Guy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said: Because you've stated at least twice now that Kremer is the best #4 starter in the league, I decided since I'm snowed in, to waste 1 hour of my life researching this for you and also me. Rays - Baz/Bradley (I think everyone would take the Rays). Blue Jays - Kikuchi (Had a .41 better FIP than Kremer) Yankees - Stroman (Yankees easy here, obviously). Red Sox - Houck (I'll give Kremer the win here, despite Houck having a better FIP). +1 Twins - I don't think they even have one yet. (Kremer obvious win here). +1 Tigers - Faedo (Kremer easy win here) +1 Guardians - Logan Allen (I'd take Allen here pretty easily) White Sox - Soroka (Obvious Kremer win here) +1 Royals - Lynch (Kremer easy win) +1 Astros - Urquidy (I would take Urquidy here given a better track record, but I'll call it a 'push') +.5 Rangers - Jon Gray/Mahle (Rangers win here pretty easily) Mariners - Woo/Miller (Easy Mariners win) Angels - Sandova (Kremer win here) +1 Athletics - Not even wasting my time. (Kremer win) +1 Braves - Sale (Braves win) Phillies - Suarez (Pretty easy Suarez win) Marlins - Garrett (Braxton garrett breakthrough last 2 years. win marlins) Mets - Quintana (This is an easy Quintana win given the track record) Nationals - Corbin (Easy Kremer win) +1 Brewers - Miley (This is a Miley win assuming health) Cubs - Shoto Imanga (I'll give this to Kremer since Imanga is a wild card, and I'm being nice). +1 Reds - Lively (Kremer win) +1 Pirates - Oviedo (Oviedo had a slightly better FIP, I'm going 'push' here) +.5 Cardinals - Gibson (former Oriole, easy win for Gibson) Dodgers - Not wasting my time (They have 10 better probably lol. Kremer loss) Diamonbacks - Pfaadt (Give me Pfaadt all day) Padres - Waldron (Kremer win) +1 Giants - Ray (Ray easy) Rockies - Hudson (Kremer easy) +1 So by the count of this, I personally have Kremer better than 13 other #4 (per depth charts currently). This ranks him #17, which is indeed close to #1, like you insinuated, if you remove the 7. I am mad you made me do this. But you made me. Please show me one post where I said he’s the best 4th starter in the league. Show me one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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