Cease To Padres per Passan

[bmags]

17 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Since Harold thinks something may go down during WM, this suggests there is already at least one strong offer in hand. 

I too am predicting a move may happen during the time of the offseason where much activity happens. 

 

[Quin]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

I too am predicting a move may happen during the time of the offseason where much activity happens. 

 

Let's make it fun and have it happen during the draft lottery for no discernable reason.

[SoCalChiSox]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

I too am predicting a move may happen during the time of the offseason where much activity happens. 

 

Well played....but to be fair he actually is kind of going out on a limb because there are alot of reports the Sox may wait awhile too. 

[bmags]

I think of the media tea leaves, the most reassuring notes have been that Ceases additional control is meaningfully valuable. When some of the other pitchers were rumored to be available, I worried about straight up talent upgrades winnowing his market, but sounds like the group that would need to trade for a SP is doing so because they need to slot in some high-level cost certainty to round out the team.

[Eminor3rd]

28 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

According to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal (subscription required), Chicago general manager Chris Getz has informed interested teams that he will likely wait until the top free-agent starting pitchers are off the board to move Cease.

There’s no reason not to wait. Yamamoto’s posting window is known and limited. No team is grading Imanaga/Uwasawa in the same class as Cease, and Glasnow costs four times as much in terms of salary and with only one year of control. Half the teams will rightfully balk at Snell’s price because of his peripherals.

There will come a time in January when Cease is the premier piece on the market, both free agent and trade, and there are already more suitors than available alternatives. 

[baseball_gal_aly]

I actually think you get a better return with more teams involved rather than limited options and a desperate team. 

Every year I wonder why trades even happen in the offseason because it only costs money to sign free agents. 

It always makes more sense to just sign players. 

Edited November 30, 2023 by baseball_gal_aly

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

I actually think you get a better return with more teams involved rather than limited options and a desperate team. 

Every year I wonder why trades even happen in the offseason because it only costs money to sign free agents. 

It always makes more sense to just sign players. 

Budgets exist. Also trying to get guys when they’re younger and in prime.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Bob Sacamano

[SoCalChiSox]

@bmags can u post the BA scouting report and grades for Norby too?

 

Thanks dude

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, GREEDY said:

They shouldn't trade him until all the big names have signed... unless Getz thinks the asking prices for the top FA SPs will come down considerably before they ultimately sign.  And that would be a stretch.  

Why Getz is seemingly pushing the issue now is relatively puzzling.  If it is as simple as he'd like to know the return so he can make moves in the market that is one reason you don't do this half ass rebuild while maybe kinda sorta trying to win the Central.

Let's not forget the one other possible thing happening here: Clickbait. Getz may not be pushing this hard right now and we'd get the same messages. People who want clicks and followers and to be believed to be insiders re-stating things that are conventional wisdom as though they're new rumors so that their names get shared and remembered and people come back to them next time if something does happen.

One person thinks the White Sox match up with the orioles, so they tweet that, a second person xeets their statement about negotiations, and suddenly everyone is convinced they've got electronic surveillance on the GM's phone.

We had like 4 food based and one Steve Cishek based accounts that should have taught us to always consider this possibility.

[Chick Mercedes]

1 hour ago, SoCalChiSox said:

He isn't necessarily pushing the issue.

We've asked for high prices, if someone meets them upfront fine, but if people are going to resist, we are gonna wait it out. Elias apparently turned down our high price so Getz is leaking to his Michigan buddy that something could be imminent in order to get other people to get serious. 

And that fits with what NBB said too...they want a massive haul, and if it doesn't come fast they will wait for it.

Interesting. FWIW, the multiple prospects return is preferable provided the floors are likely. Regret the names we are talking aren’t carrying superstar ceilings.  If you want the superstar ceiling, you only get the one prospect 1 for 1. In general I don’t understand why the Sox want to do this at a time of the offseason where the least amount of pressure exists for the other teams to fill out their rotation. The Sox are playing a weak hand, and not optimally.  The normal expectation might be to expect the high price not to be met, and for a team to be forced to wait until spring when the pressure ramps up for those that missed on free agency. But we are talking about the White Sox here.

[SoCalChiSox]

15 minutes ago, baseball_gal_aly said:

I actually think you get a better return with more teams involved rather than limited options and a desperate team. 

Every year I wonder why trades even happen in the offseason because it only costs money to sign free agents. 

It always makes more sense to just sign players. 

JR just laughed at you and muttered "Kids these days" while shaking his head.

[Chick Mercedes]

1 hour ago, Lip Man 1 said:

According to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal (subscription required), Chicago general manager Chris Getz has informed interested teams that he will likely wait until the top free-agent starting pitchers are off the board to move Cease.

Aha! Sanity prevailed.

[Jake]

I can see the logic for waiting until the top FA are off the market, but isn't there also some logic to trying to make a deal before that? Some of the teams who may sign those guys will be taking themselves out of Cease's market in doing so. Less competition for Cease's services could lower the price, I would think.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Jake said:

I can see the logic for waiting until the top FA are off the market, but isn't there also some logic to trying to make a deal before that? Some of the teams who may sign those guys will be taking themselves out of Cease's market in doing so. Less competition for Cease's services could lower the price, I would think.

This requires some other team to come in and make an aggressive move to get him. If you put a "Reasonable but fair" price out there for him, and no team comes anywhere close, then there's no reason right now to adjust your asking price downwards.

If some team comes to you with an offer that is close to your asking price, then you can negotiate with them a little bit, maybe add in a minor additional piece, maybe take a few other calls, but there's no reason to wait at that point as the offer you were waiting for might vanish.

[SoCalChiSox]

Just now, Jake said:

I can see the logic for waiting until the top FA are off the market, but isn't there also some logic to trying to make a deal before that? Some of the teams who may sign those guys will be taking themselves out of Cease's market in doing so. Less competition for Cease's services could lower the price, I would think.

That's kind of the flipside. LAD could say "you know we don't have to have Cease, we could easily sign X pitcher for just money and if we don't do a deal now we will turn our attention to that guy instead" 

So maybe some of this is pressure by parties who have a good offer on the table trying to convince us they will pull the deal and look elsewhere soon.

BAL could not do that and CIN also could not do that because they don't spend, but the LAD could make such a credible threat.

[Chick Mercedes]

Also, I’m not sure how close Morosi really is  to Getz, if Morosi is being used as a mouthpiece of disinformation.

[Johno]

I see no reason why to wait, the teams who are going to spend the money, will do exactly that, they will find a pitcher.   Getz should have every team give their best offer and go from there

[Balta1701]

Just now, Chick Mercedes said:

Also, I’m not sure how close Morosi really is  to Getz, if Morosi is being used as a mouthpiece of disinformation.

Or just making sure they put out content for clicks.

[Balta1701]

Just now, Johno said:

I see no reason why to wait, the teams who are going to spend the money, will do exactly that, they will find a pitcher.   Getz should have every team give their best offer and go from there

And if no one offers a top 100 prospect, do you just take your favorite of the offers and call it the best you can do?

[DirtySox]

20 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

@bmags can u post the BA scouting report and grades for Norby too?

 

Thanks dude

Quote

8. Connor Norby 2B

Ht: 5'9" | Wt: 180 | B-T: R-R

BA Grade/Risk:50/High.

Track Record: Norby led Division I with 102 hits in an All-America junior season at East Carolina in 2021 and signed for a slightly below-slot $1.7 million as the 41st overall pick. He led the Orioles organization with 29 home runs in 2022. He spent all of 2023 at Triple-A Norfolk and surged in the second half, ending with an .847 OPS and 22 home runs. He also made 26 starts in left field to add versatility that might help work his righthanded bat into Baltimore’s lefty-heavy lineup

Scouting Report: Norby’s knack for hard contact showed as he continued to live up to the “pure hitter” description he had when he entered the organization. He hits the ball at good angles with a line-drive swing from the right side, showing a willingness to drive the ball the other way and an ability to tap into his pull-side power as the season progressed. He struggled to control the strike zone early in the season, particularly chasing fastballs up in the zone, but he was closer to the above-average hitter with average power he projects to be as he returned to a more disciplined approach over the course of the year. While not more than an average runner, Norby plays the game hard and runs the bases well. A below-average arm limits him to second base-only, and he’ll likely be fringe-average there at best. He started once a week in left field at Triple-A to add that position to his repertoire.

The Future: Norby has a tricky profile as a bat-first second baseman, but the best of them enjoy fruitful careers, and he has the potential to do so for a second-division club. He might not have much left to prove at Triple-A, but considering the Orioles don’t need to add him to the 40-man roster until after the 2024 season and don’t have an obvious MLB role for him yet, he may return there in 2024.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Fielding: 45 | Arm: 40.

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by DirtySox

[WestEddy]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If you put a "Reasonable but fair" price out there for him, and no team comes anywhere close, then there's no reason right now to adjust your asking price downwards.

I'm guessing this is what happened with Jose Quintana (since he's been used as evidence for waiting for better offers). Hahn wanted a Sale return, and was probably only getting a top 50 and a "just missed the top 100" guy offers during the off-season. 

If Cease is garnering the packages Getz envisioned, it's all just haggling at this point. 

[SoCalChiSox]

2 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

 

Thank you.

Interesting writeup. Surprised they have his power at only 50, I've read elsewhere the power was really good. I guess maybe they would rather have 45 glove at 2nd with Corby than 40 glove with Busch? 

[Chick Mercedes]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Or just making sure they put out content for clicks.

Possible. Morosi would have to pay a price for taking clicks pay.  There’s a capital sum that is spent. We know the usual suspects that report things now and people roll their eyes. 

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I'm guessing this is what happened with Jose Quintana (since he's been used as evidence for waiting for better offers). Hahn wanted a Sale return, and was probably only getting a top 50 and a "just missed the top 100" guy offers during the off-season. 

If Cease is garnering the packages Getz envisioned, it's all just haggling at this point. 

If Cease was garnering those packages, or hell even one of them, then this would probably be done already - or the "this will happen soon, before the winter meetings!" rumors would be right. 

Note that it hasn't happened yet.

[Springfield Soxfan]

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

There’s no reason not to wait. Yamamoto’s posting window is known and limited. No team is grading Imanaga/Uwasawa in the same class as Cease, and Glasnow costs four times as much in terms of salary and with only one year of control. Half the teams will rightfully balk at Snell’s price because of his peripherals.

There will come a time in January when Cease is the premier piece on the market, both free agent and trade, and there are already more suitors than available alternatives. 

Agreed. This strategy is coming from TLR and JR negotiating school.  Work for the best deal and when you get it strike.